Vote '08

Want to know where you can vote early? We’ve got a breakdown for every county in the NewsChannel9 viewing area here, complete with phone numbers.

The Atlantic’s Andrew Sullivan has some early voting anecdotes from Tennessee & Georgia:

Tennessee:

“I live in a very Republican county in Tennessee, just south of Nashville - voting started here on Wednesday. I went to vote today and there was a very long (well-behaved) line of people. The woman who checked my registration told me there are 120,000 registered voters in the county and as of yesterday (Thursday) 10,000 people had voted. She told me voting is way ahead of the 2004 General Election and they suspect 75% of registered voters will actually vote.”

Georgia:

“I stood in line in Cobb County, GA for just short of two hours on October 13th. The poll workers said the shortest line they’d had so far was 45 minutes and that was back in September (Early Voting started Sept. 19th).

This is gonna be one for the history books.”

Have you voted early?

What was the experience like?

I’d love to hear from you!

Person#1: Yet another ND poll has it tied. That’s two +3 Obs and one dead heat. ‘

Person#2: Did you know ND has the highest number of millionaires per capita in the US?

Person#1: That’s a good bar question.

Person#3: I for one am sick to death of these North Dakota elitists telling hard-working people like me what to think.

A first-hand account of exactly how the Republican brand has damaged itself, based on conversations I had Sunday with voters who picked George W. Bush in the past, but are choosing to pull the lever for Obama this time around - after the jump.

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From “Torn between Obama & McCain” by Dane Strangler:

“As a matter of policy, I have great philosophical disagreements with Senator Obama. I and many other Americans do not think the tax code is or should be a vehicle for pursuing fairness. On health care, I tend to stand with Senator McCain in thinking that we may finally need to sever the link between health insurance and employment. McCain has consistently supported free trade, and while I can’t believe that a man as intelligent as Obama would disbelieve the benefits of free trade, he has continuously made protectionist noise during the campaign.”

“And what of McCain? He wouldn’t be here running for president if he wasn’t a practiced politician with good judgment developed over the years. But doubts about Obama don’t automatically move me to McCain’s camp, even if I agree more with his policy positions. Obama’s past associations–Jeremiah Wright, Bill Ayers, Acorn–even if purely political, give me pause. But I and others remain absolutely mystified by McCain’s choice of Sarah Palin as his running mate.”

If you are still undecided, I would love to hear from you!

What Can I Wear to Vote? What Can’t I Wear to Vote?

There is a lot of confusion about it. Some guidelines from snopes.com:

“It’s up to voters to be aware of what the regulations are at their local polling places; if you can’t get (or don’t have time to find) a definitive answer about what constitutes electioneering where you vote, you may want to leave apparel (or other decorative items) bearing the names of candidates home on election day, or at least be prepared to remove if asked. (For example, if you’re going to wear an “Obama” or “McCain” shirt to a polling place, be sure to bring some other clothing you can change into or cover up with just in case.) In general you should not be denied permission to vote for violating passive electioneering regulations; you should just be asked to leave the polling place & remove the items in question from public view before you re-enter.”

Yesterday I took a call from a woman who said she saw several Obama supporters right near the entrance to the Hamilton County Election Commission. I suggested that if she felt it was too close (the rule is no “electioneering” within 100 feet, then she should complain to the commission. That’s what I’d recommend you do if you think someone’s in a “gray area” - speak up. I’ve also read an instance of McCain-Palin electioneering going on in Charlotte, North Carolina:

“My husband has driven to two others in his attempt to vote today, and the scene has been so ridiculous that he has given up and will try again next week. At two of the spots where he tried to vote, he witnessed and was approached by two exceedingly aggressive McCain/Palin volunteers who were pulling people out of line, handing out brochures, and telling them “You really need to think carefully about your vote. If you plan to vote Obama, we would ask that you read this material and reconsider your vote.”

At one location, after approaching my husband aggressively, these volunteers were forcefully asked to leave by an employee and were told the police would be called if they did not cease and desist.”

If they’re within the bounds of the law (ie at an appropriate distance), then those folks have a constitutional right to do what they do.

But I hesitate to fully endorse doing this. Most people who show up to vote have already made up their minds. We should give those people the respect they deserve.

Tennessee was actually at the heart of a 1992 Supreme Court case - Burson v. Freeman (pdf file) - about what is & isn’t proper at the polling station:

Read the rest of this entry »

Early Voting Shows Voter Surge in Georgia

From Politico’s Ben Smith :

The Atlanta Journal Constitution reported recently on disproportionate early voting among African-Americans. Georgia doesn’t appear to be in play in the presidential election, but it tracks early votes contemporaneously (and online ), so it may be a useful bellwether for what’s happening elsewhere.

If it is, the news continues to be extremely good for Obama. Early vote totals have now reached 499,582 — more than 75,000 more than were cast early in all of 2004, according to Matt Carrothers, a spokesman for the Secretary of State. (The state is also newly encouraging early voting this year, so that’s a major factor in the overall increase.)

Most striking: The ratio of African-American voters remains extremely high. 37% of the early votes were cast by black voters, who make up just 29% of the state’s electorate.

& what about early-voting patterns in other states? Click here to see early voting turnout in North Carolina, New Mexico, Ohio, & Indiana.

BY THE WAY,

I had hoped to provide an account of some Obama supporters spending the night outside the Hamilton County Election Commission.

A shame that there ultimately wasn’t a story.

I think I can speak for most of us in the local media when I say that we don’t like getting played.

yet that’s exactly what several of my colleagues who covered the event last night felt was happening; as soon as the 11pm live shot cameras & lights went off, the supposed "campers" who would be "first in line" when early voting began on Thursday actually got into their cars & drove off, leaving only a handful of people. & when I say handful of people, I’m led to believe that’s more like "4 or 5." This morning when we went back to the scene our crew counted two (2) tents.

So local Obama (& all other campaigns’) staffers, please take my advice for the future:

Either do what you promise to do in your news release, or don’t bother sending out a news release at all.

You deserve any ridicule you hear about this today.

[PHOTO CREDIT: LAVONDIA MAJORS / THE TENNESSEAN]

NASHVILLE, Tenn. (AP) - A 100-year-old woman who decided to vote for the first time cast her ballot for Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama.
Last week, Davidson County Election Commission workers visited the nursing home where Dilla Burt lives to collect ballots from older voters who can’t get around or need help voting.
A nurse took Burt in a wheelchair to the Bordeaux Long-Term Care lobby, where an election worker asked her who she wanted to vote for. Burt gave her answer, and the worker marked the ballot.
Burt registered to vote earlier this month in Davidson County. Election commission officials in Davidson and Rutherford - another county where Burt once lived - said there’s no record of her voting in either county.
Phyllis Burt says this is the first time her mother’s voted because she’s been reluctant to. She said all these years her mother thought black votes were not counted or didn’t matter in elections.

Tomorrow (Wednesday) early voting begins in Tennessee, running through October 30th.

If you’re eligible, there is absolutely no excuse for you not to vote.

Please do so.

Follow Dilla’s example.

From the Scholastic website:

It’s official. At least for the kids! The Scholastic Presidential Election Poll results are in: Democratic nominee Senator Barack Obama won with 57 percent of the vote, to 39 percent for Republican nominee Senator John McCain.

…

Since 1940, the results of the student vote have mirrored the outcome of the general election all but twice: In 1948, kids voted for Thomas E. Dewey over Harry S. Truman. In 1960, more students voted for Richard M. Nixon than for John F. Kennedy. In 2000, a majority of student voters chose George W. Bush, mirroring the Electoral College result, but not the result of the popular vote.

On McCain’s New Economic Plans Announced Today

Read the Obama campaign’s response to this plan here.

Read Obama’s own plan to help the middle class here.

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Above: a strategy update from Obama campaign staffer David Plouffe.

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Letter from Pennsylvania

David Broder, reporting from Pennsylvania:

“Now, economic anxieties are pervasive and Obama, whose ads are seen far more frequently than McCain’s, is viewed as the candidate more seriously addressing those domestic problems.

Peter Wilde, a retired high school teacher who was working on his car on a sunny afternoon, said he has decided on Obama, but “I really like John McCain, and in any other election but this one, I’d vote for him. He’s a man of integrity and he speaks his mind.”

So, why Obama? “I think his tax plan is better for people like me, and after the last two weeks, my 401(k) is not in too good a shape.”"

See the latest Pennsylvania poll spread here.

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Yes We Keynes?

David Brooks, warning against a surge of government spending in an Obama administration:

“Obama will try to straddle the two camps — he seems to sympathize with both sides — but the liberals will win…. Even if he’s so inclined, it’s difficult for a president to overrule the committee chairmen of his own party. It is more difficult to do that when the president is a Washington novice and the chairmen are skilled political hands. It is most difficult when the president has no record of confronting his own party elders. It’s completely impossible when the economy is in a steep recession, and an air of economic crisis pervades the nation.

What we’re going to see, in short, is the Gingrich revolution in reverse and on steroids. There will be a big increase in spending and deficits. In normal times, moderates could have restrained the zeal on the left. In an economic crisis, not a chance. The over-reach is coming. The backlash is next.

Nice to see a conservative wake up & realize the perils of too much government spending. Pity we didn’t hear more of these voices in the last 8 years.

ALSO: Fred Barnes of the Weekly Standard also walks through a “worst-case scenario” for Republicans.

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Neither Candidate Has Anything to Do with It

Above: the headline of the New York Post on Friday. I hear this often on Rush Limbaugh & Fox News - anytime the market tanks, the “reason” is that “investors are worried about an Obama administration.”

Trouble is, that story line conveniently goes away on days like yesterday, which saw the Dow’s biggest jump (900+!) ever.

If you talked to an investor in the heat of battle on Wall Street today & asked him to list 10 things that are affecting his current investing decisions, I suspect “who will become the president in three weeks” does not make the list.

Sean Quinn at FiveThirtyEight.com spotlights Tennessee’s demographics & current climate in his ongoing series called “the Road to 270:”

What McCain Has Going For Him: A very high white evangelical population helps McCain, as does a relatively low youth population….Obama triaged Tennessee in the primary, ceding it.

What Obama Has Going For Him: Tennessee has been relatively hurt by high unemployment figures, and it’s clear that economic concerns help the Democratic candidate.

Click here for the full forecast.

There’s also this interesting demographic breakdown:

Fighting the Mob Mentality

Quote of the day. I hope it’s not too late to heed this advice [Update: Never mind]:

“John Weaver, McCain’s former top strategist, said top Republicans have a responsibility to temper this behavior.

“People need to understand, for moral reasons and the protection of our civil society, the differences with Sen. Obama are ideological, based on clear differences on policy and a lack of experience compared to Sen. McCain,” Weaver said. “And from a purely practical political vantage point, please find me a swing voter, an undecided independent, or a torn female voter that finds an angry mob mentality attractive.”

“Sen. Obama is a classic liberal with an outdated economic agenda. We should take that agenda on in a robust manner. As a party we should not and must not stand by as the small amount of haters in our society question whether he is as American as the rest of us. Shame on them and shame on us if we allow this to take hold.””

Joe Klein:

“…we are on the edge of some real serious craziness here and it would be nice if McCain did the right thing and told his more bloodthirsty supporters to go home and take a cold shower. But McCain hasn’t done the right thing all year. His campaign is appalling, as the New York Times editorial board said today–and more, it is a national disgrace.”

FURTHER READING: “the Unthinkable,” by Ta-Nehisi Coates

After the jump: McCain’s plan for 401(K)s… an interview with Charles Gibson of ABC…a new Ayers ad…a McCain aide brings up Obama’s drug use…McCain loses ground with working class voters…a new web ad tying Obama & ACORN.

Read the rest of this entry »

How bad are things for McCain in terms of the polls right now?

Click here to see the current state of the polls in West Virginia, a state where Clinton cleaned Obama’s clock earlier this year.

FURTHER READING: “Working Class White Voters Ditching McCain“

Above: a member of an audience in Wisconsin puts John McCain in his place. He’s mad as he(ck).

It immediately put me in the mind of this clip from the movie Network, which I consider to be the best movie ever about network news:

(warning: the above clip has one instance of blasphemous language, specifically at 2:29.)

What’s interesting about Peter Finch’s Oscar-winning performance here is how much of what he’s saying can apply today. Go rent the movie & you’ll be amazed at how eerily topical it is throughout.

A report from Colorado Springs, Colorado - considered “the Vatican of evangelical political power” may give McCain supporters cause for concern:

“The financial crisis is point number one,” said Pastor Brady Boyd, head of New Life Church, 250,000 square feet of concentrated Christianity. “These attacks against the candidates are just irrelevant right now. Why are you all attacking one another when we’re dying out here?”

Also: despite his efforts to bring many illegal immigrants out of the shadows, Hispanics are not in McCain’s corner.

“This doesn’t compare to past registration times.”

Great job for all of you who registered at the last minute! There were quite a few NewsChannel9 employees who registered for the first time yesterday.

NewsChannel9 producer Nathan Frick’s got a report on last-day registration in Tennessee & north Georgia which is worth your time. Read the full article here.

Report on New GA Voter Registration Shows Black “New Voter” Surge

From the Atlanta-Journal Constitution:

“Secretary of State Karen Handel is on record saying that there is no giant surge of voter registration in Georgia — and in the largest context, she’s right.

Newly released figures from her office show that 406,379 new voters registered between Jan. 1 to Sept. 30. Four years ago, the number was 371,932.

Overall, that’s a 9 percent increase from ’04 to ’08 — hardly surprising in a presidential race with no incumbent. Barack Obama or no Barack Obama.

But this is far from the whole story. Those same numbers show that 164,859 of those new voters are African-American. And 176,570 of those new voters are white.”

ALSO: Musician Ralph Stanley has a recorded a radio ad running in southwest Virginia that endorses Barack Obama. Click here to listen to it.

Fascinating Focus Group from the Show-Me State

Blue-collar voters speak out in my home state, as reported at MSNBC’s First Read blog:

“I don’t think either one is the total package,” said Tom Coates, a 47-year-old construction worker from Brentwood. He described Obama as “a thinker” and McCain as “more knee jerk” — though he said he admires McCain’s life story and “just likes the guy.”

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Coates also said he’s not quite locked in for McCain because of his age and his “distance from modern technology issues.” He added that initially Palin moved him toward McCain, but “she said some ridiculous things to Katie Couric. ‘I’ll get back to you?’” he said, incredulously.”

[photo: David Lienemann/Associated Press]

In the Ground Game, Not Even Close

Sean Quinn of FiveThirtyEight.com is desperately trying to get a clear picture of the inside operations of local, grassroots level campaign operations of the McCain campaign. Trouble is, he can’t find any:

“The McCain offices are also calm, sedate. Little movement. No hustle. In the Obama offices, it’s a whirlwind. People move. It’s a dynamic bustle. You can feel it in our photos.

Up to this point, we’ve been giving McCain’s ground campaign a lot of benefit of the doubt. We can’t stop convincing ourselves that there must – must – be a warehouse full of 1,000 McCain volunteers somewhere in a national, central location just dialing away. This can’t be all they’re doing. Because even in a place like Colorado Springs, McCain’s ground campaign is getting blown away by the Obama efforts. It doesn’t mean Obama will win Colorado Springs, but it means Obama’s campaign will not look itself in the mirror afterward and ask, “what more could we have done?”

You could take every McCain volunteer we’ve seen doing actual work in the entire trip, over six states, and it would add up to the same as Obama’s single Thornton, CO office. Or his single Durango, CO office. These ground campaigns bear no relationship to each other.”

Read more about Obama’s ground game here.

Also: though he’s far behind McCain in the polls, Obama is neck & neck in terms of fundraising in the state of Tennessee.

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Above: Pollster Frank Luntz interviews a group of undecided voters (who split down the middle in 2004) of their thoughts immediately following the debate.

Pay close attention to the “what single word comes to your mind” answers.

What do you think?

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Imagine being called to fight & die for your country at the age of 18 - but not being able to have a voice to help change that country.

That was the case for the nation’s first 196 years.

The 26th Amendment to the constitution changed that.

So who stands to benefit most from the 26th Amendment this election year?

Read the rest of this entry »

From the Los Angeles Times:

Previous psychological studies have found that conservatives tend to be more structured and persistent in their judgments whereas liberals are more open to new experiences. The latest study found those traits are not confined to political situations but also influence everyday decisions.”

Interesting article. What do you think?

Apparently signs like these are harder to get than, in some places, gasoline. & many Democrats are not happy about it:

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From the AP:

“…a new Associated Press-Yahoo News poll, conducted with Stanford University, shows just how wide a gap remains between whites and blacks.

It shows that a substantial portion of white Americans still harbor negative feelings toward blacks. It shows that blacks and whites disagree tremendously on how much racial prejudice exists, whose fault it is and how much influence blacks have in politics.

One result is that Barack Obama’s path to the presidency is steeper than it would be if he were white.”

Read the rest of the story here.

The phenomenon of voters telling pollsters they’ll choose a black candidate, but voting otherwise inside the booth, is known as ‘the Bradley Effect,’ after Los Angeles mayor Tom Bradley.

Learn more about “the Bradley Effect” here.

How much will feelings about race affect Barack Obama’s chances? Weigh in by posting a comment! All views are welcome.

Starting a new feature today that I hope will illuminate you on how the greatest document any civilization has ever produced, the U.S. Constitution, has an impact on the presidential race.

I’m going to go through them randomly.. today we start with Amendment XII.

The 12th Amendment created the electoral college. Read the text here.

This lays out the framework for how we’ll keep score on election night.

One site that is primarily focused solely on this aspect of the race is FiveThirtyEight.com.

538 is the total number of electoral votes available.

A candidate needs to win 270 electoral votes to win the election.

Here’s FiveThirtyEight.com blogger Nate Silver’s current projection of the race, based on polling in each state:

Read the rest of this entry »

From this week’s New York Times/CBS poll. See more results here (PDF file).

& read more about what this means for Sarah Palin’s candidacy here.

UPDATE: “Margaret” asks:

“So what does that mean with “nothing” the least they like?”

It means that Republicans don’t like cooperating with New York Times pollsters, of course!

Seriously, everyone has doubts about their candidates. I’m sure on the other side of the coin Obama supporters have doubts about Joe Biden’s ability to keep his foot out of his mouth. But when a pollster asks, & you know what the “party line” is.. total honesty becomes a casualty.