Above: a map from RealClearPolitics.com’s Jay Cost, measuring the degree of polarization between the parties going back to the 1976 election.

Cost is using the term ‘polarization’ to measure the depth of support for one side’s candidate or the other.

Interesting to note: Tennessee didn’t become a ‘polarized state’ until earlier this month, & Georgia hasn’t been a ‘polarized state’ since hometown boy Jimmy Carter won 32 years ago.

Also, take note: Utah is the only state with ‘polarized’ status every single election.

Cost’s advice for the president-elect, based on these numbers:

“Given the data presented here, I think this is a cautionary tale for the President-elect. This does not mean, of course, that he must govern like a Republican from Kentucky. Far from it! It just means he should be aware that there are factions in the country that strongly opposed him, and he should be careful with how he manages these groups. He does not have to do what they want him to do, but he should not overly antagonize them.”

That’s good advice.

I have said many times on this blog that one of the reasons President Bush was so unsuccessful is that ‘antagonism.’ This started with anyone (the majority of the 2000 popular vote) who didn’t choose him, but expanded to include several groups within his own party, including those who oppose immigration reform, those who were critical of his handling of the Iraq war, & those who thought Harriet Miers would not have made a good Supreme Court justice.

This doesn’t mean Bush (or, Obama) should capitulate to the other side. Rather, simply acknowledging the point of view of those who disagree with you can go a long way.

Above: Strange Maps overlays 2008 election results with concentrations of cotton production in the 1800s.

Fascinating, & proof that the great northern migration wasn’t a total one.

Charles M. Blow:

“In 1980, the Republican Party platform spoke at length to blacks and Hispanics, promising to stand “shoulder to shoulder with black Americans” in the fight against racism and to “pursue policies that will help to make opportunities of American life a reality for Hispanics.” That year, Ronald Reagan captured 14 percent of the black vote, becoming the last Republican to do so. He also doubled the Hispanic support that Gerald Ford had enjoyed in the previous election.

The 1980 platform went on to make a specific pitch to the nation’s youth, committing itself to broadening “the involvement of young people in all phases of the political process.” Reagan won 44 percent of the youngest voters in 1980, and that support grew to 61 percent when he was re-elected in 1984. No Republican has seen this level of support from that demographic since.”

David Broder:

“…there are signs in this year’s returns of voter shifts that could herald a new political era — and that certainly define the challenge facing the Republican Party.

Several of the most important are pointed up in memos I received this past week from Stan Greenberg, a Democratic pollster, and Steve Lombardo, a Republican consultant. They were done independently, but there were significant overlaps.

Greenberg’s post-election survey for Democracy Corps found that the three most important reasons voters gave for supporting Obama concerned his promises to withdraw troops from Iraq, to cut middle-class taxes and to expand health insurance coverage.

In arguing that the returns spell the emergence of a “center-left” majority, replacing the “center-right” majority of Bush and the Republicans, Greenberg and his colleagues note that Obama won the debate on tax policy with John McCain by 51 percent to 42 percent.

If Democrats follow through by cutting taxes for most middle-class families, as Obama promised, then Republicans could lose one of their hard-rock advantages.”

OMAHA, Neb. (AP) - President-elect Barack Obama has won one of Nebraska’s electoral votes, making history in a state that has never split its electoral votes.
After all remaining ballots were counted Friday, Obama emerged with a 3,325-vote lead over Republican John McCain in unofficial results in the 2nd Congressional District. The district covers Douglas County, which includes Omaha, and portions of adjacent Sarpy County.
Nebraska, with five votes, and Maine are the only states that divide their electoral votes by congressional district.

Obama now has 365 electoral votes to McCain’s 162.

Missouri, with 11 electoral votes, is still too close to call. Election officials there have until Tuesday to finish counting.

Above: A radio spot by the victorious Tennessee Senator Lamar Alexander, which aired in Memphis, & was voiced-over by a prominent retired African-American judge.

He didn’t have to do it. He had a commanding lead all year long, & could have coasted with just the party faithful.

But to his credit, Alexander’s strategy helped him carry a sizable segment of the black vote on November 4th:

“While colleagues like Senator Elizabeth Dole of North Carolina were coming out on the losing end in part because of a strong African-American vote for their opponents, Mr. Alexander, who had a record of appointing blacks to government and education positions, was able to win about 26 percent of the black vote.”

Kleinheider:

“It’s something deserving of at least grudging political respect, if not outright kudos.”

You’d think this is a strategy that would at least cross the mind of a Senator who’s in the fight for his life one state to the south.

But instead… this is what we’re hearing:

“We didn’t get our folks to come out & vote..”

This isn’t an isolated incident, either.

Scroll up & watch that Lamar radio ad again.

I believe both members of Tennessee’s Senate delegation are worthy of praise for recognizing the future.

I also believe Senator Chambliss embarassingly represents a part of the GOP’s past that it should (& eventually will) forget, for its own good.

What do you think?

What would have happened if she won the primaries? Some are speculating based on November 4th exit polls:

CBS News:

“As voters left the polls on Election Day, many were asked how they would have voted if the election match-up were between Hillary Clinton and John McCain rather than Barack Obama and McCain. Fifty-two percent said they would have backed the former Democratic candidate; 41 percent would have voted for McCain, wider than Obama’s 7-point margin over McCain,”

Color Nate Silver skeptical:

Would she have handled the financial crisis with as much aplomb as Obama did? Probably. Would she have been so capable and reassuring in the debates? Almost certainly. Would she have had an easier time resonating with working class voters in places like Missouri and West Virginia? Yes.

But would she have managed the media as deftly as Obama did? Perhaps not. Would Republican attacks on Bill Clinton and Kazakhstan been as counterproductive to their cause as their effort to link Barack Obama and Bill Ayers? Maybe — or maybe not. Would she have matched Obama’s field organization and raised as much money? Doubtful.

Would her campaign have had the same steely confidence as Obama’s did after the Republican convention bounce? Unlikely. Would she have delivered as strong a speech as Mr. Obama did in Denver? Iffy. Would she have catalyzed near-universal turnout in the black community? No.

If Hillary Clinton had headed the Democratic ticket, would John McCain have been dumb enough to name Sarah Palin as his running mate? One would hope not. Might McCain have been smart enough to hire Mike Murphy rather than Steve Schmidt, campaign on themes of bipartisanship, honor, and good government, and appeal as much as possible to independent voters (as the political climate dictated that he ought to have done in the first place)? Who knows. He just might have figured it out.

And what would Clinton’s numbers have looked like after the Republicans had gotten done accusing her of being a socialist, a puppet for her husband, and an all-around conniving you-know-what?

I also think this would have been a far nastier campaign, thus resulting in much tighter numbers. It would have been harder for Hillary to have made the “new kind of politics” argument that ended up working so well among the “up for grabs” voters that Obama won between the conventions & election day.

But what do you think? Please post a comment! All views are welcome.

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From WMAZ:

A campaign visit from Barack Obama would sway more voters in Georgia’s U.S. Senate runoff than John McCain’s visit on behalf of Saxby Chambliss, according to a 13WMAZ-SurveyUSA poll.

The poll of 550 registered voters says 30 percent would more likely to vote for challenger Jim Martin if Obama came to Georgia to campaign on his behalf, but 29 percent would be less likely.

&

- 45 percent of the voters polled said they had favorable opinions of Chambliss, the Republican incumbent. 29 percent had unfavorable opinion, 19 percent were neutral, 7 percent had no opinion.

– More voters had unfavorable than favorable opinions of Martin: 34 percent liked him, 37 percent didn’t, 18 percent were neutral and 10 percent had no opinion.

– 87 percent of the voters said they’ll vote in the runoff. Eight percent said they wouldn’t, and 5 percent they weren’t sure. Ninety-five percent of Republicans were sure they would vote compared to 85 percent of Democrats.

The poll did not ask people how they intended to vote.

Nate Silver interprets these numbers:

“The tricky thing for pollsters will be in figuring out just which of these people are lying about their intent to participate and which of them aren’t. Pollsters like to root their models in recent precedent, but things like runoffs and special elections happen so rarely that there’s just not very much to key oneself off of. The point is … if the polls going into December 2nd say that Saxby Chambliss is going to win the runoff by 7 points, you shouldn’t be a but surprised if Jim Martin actually wins instead. And you also shouldn’t be surprised if Chambliss wins by 20. This will be a return to the high margins of uncertainty that we saw in the primaries.”

I tend to agree.

But there are two big “X” factors that remain to play out in the race:

1. Whether Obama comes to Georgia to campaign for Martin

2. The outcomes of the Senate races in Alaska & Minnesota. If both Democrats prevail there (which is not looking impossible at the moment), look for higher turnout among GOP voters trying to fend off the magic number 60.

Who do you think will win the runoff? Post a comment!

KNOXVILLE, Tenn. (AP) - Their presidential candidate lost and their influence in national politics may be waning, but white born-again Christians clearly won the 2008 election in Tennessee.
Even for the buckle of the Bible Belt, their majority was surprising - two of every three white voters in Tennessee identified themselves as evangelical Christians in exit polls.
This in a state where 84 percent of the voters are white.
Political pollster Ken Blake says the importance that John McCain’s supporters put on shared values underscores the role that religion plays in Tennessee presidential politics. Those values included opposition to abortion.
McCain carried Tennessee but lost the election. Yet white evangelicals likely helped elect new Republican majorities in the Tennessee Legislature.
Overall, 52 percent of Tennessee voters were white born-again Christians. Only Arkansas, with 55 percent, was higher.

Other interesting factoids about November 4th & the religious:

-More evangelicals voted for McCain than voted for Bush in 2004.

-12 million self-described ‘weekly churchgoers’ voted for Obama.

Indiana: One of Obama’s success stories.

George Bush won Indiana in 2004 by 510,000 votes.

Barack Obama won Indiana in 2008 by 9,000 votes.

That means Obama improved Democratic turnout by 519,000 votes Tuesday.

How did he do against Clinton in the Hoosier state primary? Click here to find out.

[& check out which other state had its primary on the same day, interestingly]

Hamilton County Voter Turnout Bucks National Trend

Thanks go to my News Director, who found these on Hamilton County’s Election Commission site:

2008: 72%

2004: 78%

2000: 64%

1996: 67%

Nationwide 2008 turnout: Estimated at 62.5%, up from 60.3%

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Unemployment Spikes

We learn today that 240,000 jobs were lost in October; the national rate goes up from 6.1% to 6.5%.

Read more about it here.

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Transition Underway

Illinois Congressman Rahm Emmanuel signs on as WH Chief of Staff. Read the statements from both Obama & Emanuel here.

Why Rahm? Marc Ambinder muses.

Hillary Clinton approves of the pick, House Minority Leader John Boehner does not.

The Emanuel pick signals the transition will be quick; read more about the overall plan here.

Obama plans to give his 1st news conference as president-elect; read more about what he’ll reveal today here.

Before that newser, he’ll hold a conference with his economic advisers; read more about that here.

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The Autopsy: What Went Wrong?

Charles Krauthammer says it was the economy:

“We have never had a full-fledged financial panic in the middle of a presidential campaign. Consider. If the S&P 500 were to close at the end of the year where it did on Election Day, it will have suffered this year its steepest drop since 1937. That is 71 years.

At the same time, the economy had suffered nine consecutive months of job losses. Considering the carnage to both capital and labor (which covers just about everybody), even a Ronald Reagan could not have survived. The fact that John McCain got 46 percent of the electorate when 75 percent said the country was going in the wrong direction is quite remarkable.”

Andrew Sullivan disagrees with Krauthammer’s premise.

He’s correct in that assessment, but I’d also give as much weight to the damaged Republican brand.

It’s my view that that the country did not swing more Democratic, as some left-leaning sites are saying. I would say this is a vote more against ideology & for pragmatism. This is a trend I’ve tracked ever since August 29th, 2005. & I believe Tuesday’s voters weren’t necessarily giving Democrats a big thumbs up - they were giving a thumbs-down to the ineffective policies of the party in power, which happened to be the Republicans.

Voters are hungry for results & had their fill of ideologues.

As I’ve said to many in the past 3 years, the successful politicians will be those who work to deliver results to their consituencies - no matter which party they belong to.

More thoughts throughout the day.

Weigh in yourself! Why did McCain lose?

***(note: “e-day” = election day, “i-day” = inauguration day)

TN voters who picked Harold Ford in the 2006 Senate Election:

48%

TN voters who picked Barack Obama in the 2008 Presidential Election:

42%

What’s behind the difference?

Discuss.

Live Blogging the Results

Note: head on over to our live web streaming at 7:30pm!

Kentucky called for McCain, Vermont called for Obama.

Marc Ambinder:

76% of the country believes it’s off on the wrong track.

Bush’s approval rating is 27%

More than 60% say the economy is their top voting issue; 9 in ten say the economy is in bad shape; more than 80% are worried about their own condition next year.

Change voters made up 35% of the electorate; 30% wanted someone who shared their values.

One in ten voters are late-deciders..

And CNN tells us that of those who listed Iraq as a key issue, Obama’s leading two to one.

Tons of exit poll goodies can be seen here.

Here are some just in from the AP:

Six in 10 voters name the economy as the top issue.

None of the other issues - energy, Iraq, terrorism or health care - was picked by more than one in 10.

Half of voters said the economy was poor and nearly all the rest said it was not good.

Half of voters are very worried the economic crisis will harm their family’s finances and a third were somewhat worried.

More than half oppose the $700 billion government bail-out plan.

Two-thirds of voters were worriewd about being able to afford health care.

One in 10 voters said they were casting ballots for the first time and 6 in 10 (of those voters) were under 30.

Message to pollsters: a quarter of new voters don’t have landlines at home, only cell phones.

Six in 10 voters said future appointments to the Supreme Court were an important factor in their decision.

Two-thirds of voters favor drilling for oil in offshore waters where it is currently not allowed.

Top 10 Reasons You Should Ignore Exit Polls

What I’m Looking for in Georgia:

From 538.com:

“In Georgia..African-Americans represented 35% of the early vote, and 25% is the historical high. If Georgia winds up with 30% of the vote remaining African-American, Obama wins Georgia.”

Watch those exit polls from Georgia that reflect African-American turnout.

From CNN, via the LA Times:

About 62% of those surveyed cited the economy as the top issue on their minds. Ten percent cited the war, 9% percent chose terrorism, and 9% went with health care.

This post says we won’t see “true” exit polling data until about 8pm.

& SO HERE WE ARE.

Check this blog throughout the day for the latest election day news.

I am now working on the 5:30 newscast.

Later tonight I’ll be co-hosting our election night ‘webcast’ with Melydia Clewell. We’ll be live-streaming the election results at NewsChannel9.com. It’s a brave new world - we’ll all be in uncharted territory on the web. I’m excited. I hope you are too, & I hope you tune in.

Today, as you can imagine, is very hectic, so you won’t see a wealth of posts here. What I’d love, though, is to answer your questions - about ANYthing - if you have them. So e-mail me at dlehr@newschannel9.com with your question & I’ll do my best to answer it. I’d like to focus on what interests you today.

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Meet Me, the Blogger

Above: I make a guest appearance on This N That with Don Welch. For any of you who wondered what I looked like.

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What Clues to Watch For Tonight

Read Mark Halperin’s piece today - very helpful/insightful.

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Above: Palin’s final election-eve rally, in Alaska.

& there’s this:

ANCHORAGE, Alaska (AP) - John McCain’s running mate, Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, says she hopes, prays and believes that she will be able to take her experience as a reformer to Washington as vice president.
Palin voted Tuesday in her hometown of Wasilla, Alaska, spending about two minutes in a voting booth located in the town hall where she once presided as mayor.
On her way into the polling place, Palin hugged friends and shook hands with poll workers and other voters.
She left wearing an “I Voted” sticker on her brown, hooded jacket.
Standing with her husband, Todd, Palin told reporters that local government has been a great training ground. She had served on Wasilla’s city council and then as its mayor before being elected governor two years ago.

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Staying Up Late in the Centennial State

10:35am

DENVER (AP) - The polls are open in Colorado for the half of the state’s registered voters who didn’t cast their ballots by mail or at an early-voting location.
Election officials say nearly 1.6 million out of 3.2 million Colorado voted early. Still, they say don’t expect final results today.
Denver Election Commission spokesman Alton Dillard says the days of having “close to final results by 10 p.m. are over.” He says officials have tried to make it clear from the start that workers will still be counting ballots into Wednesday.
Dillard says the process to tabulate paper and mail-in ballots is time consuming.

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10:17am

The Obamas Vote

Watch it above.

Read a pool report here.

(OTHER CANDIDATES HAVE VOTED, & I’m looking on YouTube for clips to post here.

If you see one, give me a shout!)

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Tue/10:11am

Report from the Ground in Georgia

Sean Quinn of 538.com has a good report of how each the McCain & Obama campaigns are working to ‘Get Out the Vote’ in one of the states that will likely prove to be the most dramatic in the country later tonight:

He begins:

“If there is one shocker on election night in the presidential race, cast your eyes to Georgia. 1,994,990 people voted early in Georgia. 3,301,875 total voted in Georgia’s presidential race in 2004.

Let that sink in.”

What’s your voting story? Let us know!

From a reader in Ramhurst, Georgia:

Good Morning!
From a little place called Ramhurst Georgia. I live beside the voting place and the car doors have been slamming steadily since the polls opened. I just went over and got through in a few minutes. It takes a few minutes to read through all the special items. Machines are working fine and the people seem to be moving voters along well. One thing is different…the workers are not kicked back today, they are working hard to keep the flow of people going. If our small little place is that busy, I’d expect it to be a long day for the precinct workers and that is a good thing for democracy.
Keep up the good work.
Milton

Now it’s your turn!

Who’d you vote for, & why?

& when did you make your decision?

Everyone’s story is welcome!

Nathan says

“I voted for McCain because he reflects my beliefs & values. I made my mind up after Huckabee lost.”

Tom says

“I voted in a rural precinct in Catoosa County. The room was buzzing with energy. No political debates or discussions, just excitement. I arrived at 630am — a half hour before the polling began at 7am — and was third in line. I was finished by 705am. By the time I left, the parking lot was overflowing and the line was long.

I am never more proud to be American than when cast my ballot.”

John says

“I voted for Obama and have supported him since he entered the race in Illinois.
The reason is I believe he can fundamentally change politics, by bringing more people together and ending the “divide and conquer” era of politics. I also think it’s time for a young, intelligent and energetic person to lead rather than the same, old grumpy men.”

Marcia says

“My voting experience was as pleasant as a 45-minute wait ever is! I thought the precinct folks were very efficient and handled things nicely, (so the wait really wasn’t unpleasant).

As for who received my vote, Sen. Obama was my choice. At the beginning of the process, I was a Hillary fan… and still am. But I think Sen. Obama has conducted himself with great dignity and civility. That matters to me. In addition, he has put forth plans that reflect his concern for the average citizen. Considering the process through which they have to go, those plans may never see the light of day…but I think his demonstration of concern and empathy bode well for the country, its citizens and the
nation’s place in this global age.”

David says

“I voted at about 10:30am at the Avondale Church (Harrison precinct). There was no line, everything seemed to be running smoothly. We took our homeschool kids with us as a civic lesson. They had lots of questions. I could answer most of them.

I was decided a long time ago–voting Republican all the way. Nothing that was said in the mainstream media, the debates or Internet / E-mail traffic had any sway on me or my decisions.

I am grateful, however, that I live in a country where my vote counts.”

David says

“Voted at 10:30am…..Missionary Ridge Precinct…..2 minutes to sign in, and 3 minutes to vote… Very helpful staff.”

Richard says

“I went to Chattanooga’s Tyner Precinct… arrived at about ten minutes before 8 am. On first glance it looked like no line!  But once I got inside I found a line with app. 100 people wrapped up and down the hallway.

I went back by there to shoot pictures for our web page about 10:30 am. There was absolutely NO line… people voting, but no line.” (note: Richard is our web guru here at the station)

I showed up at my polling precinct at 7:35am.

I was 15th in line.

The crowd was quiet & sedate.

By the time polls opened at 8am, there were 60 people in line.

When the polls opened, the guy behind me said “Get your vote on.”

I turned around & said to him, “let’s go make democracy.”

I was out by 8:10am.

It felt great.

Click here to view the embedded video.

Above: my very first memory of being conscious of the United States Presidency, in August of 1974, when Gerald R. Ford took the oath of office.

[the photo below was taken in 1971, three years prior, but the TV & TV stand & room the TV was in were the same when I watched Ford.]

Since that time (1974) I remember becoming somewhat of a presidential buff. I remember memorizing the presidents, & reading up about the early ones at a young age. I remember Jimmy Carter being elected president, when I was in 1st grade. I remember Ronald Reagan being elected president, when I was in 5th grade. I remember Reagan’s re-election, when I was in 9th grade.

I was able to vote for the president for the first time in 1988. I have voted in every available election since then, including today.

& this year, my interest in the office of the presidency has taken me into the blogging world.

Since today represents a culmination of a 9-month endeavor, I want to take this opportunity to thank all of you for your interest & participation in the Vote08 blog.

This has been a labor of love for me throughout the year - & what a contest it’s been!

I have bent over backwards to make this website a fair one, one that respects all candidates that have been running.

It is my sincere hope that you have gotten that impression.

We all have a place at the table in this country, & no one’s ideas of patriotism or how to make this country great should be disrespected. I have tried to make that belief this blog’s ‘bread & butter’ since late January.

But just in case you’re wondering who I voted for today, & why, this piece pretty much spells it out.

What’s going on?

In this post, which will remain up until Tuesday night, I’m pulling back the curtain & showing you exactly what news about campaign 2008 I am checking throughout the day.

The most recent entry will be at the top; to start from the beginning, scroll to the bottom.

& I want to hear what you think! Click here to post a comment.

Calvin Can’t Stop Talking about McCain’s Tennessee Stop

Amazing on a day when his beloved Tennessee Vols are in the news.. Calvin says he’s got a better idea for McCain’s strategy in winning NC & VA than stopping in Blountville:

A campaign stop in the Tri-Cities was bad strategy for McCain, trying to woo SW Virginia and Western NC voters.. True, two of the three TV stations with strong VHF signals (WCYB-TV, Channel 5 and WJHL-TV, Channel 11), do indeed blanket all of SW Virginia and part of Western North Carolina.

But SW Virginia voters work and shop in Tri-Cities, Tennessee. As a result, they are usually politically aligned with their neighbors in Upper East Tennessee.. SW Virginia voters are mostly Republican, voting the same way upper East Tennessee has voted for generations, and this includes absentee voting, early voting, and Election Day-of voting.

A Republican visit by a presidential candidate and covered heavily on Tri-Cities TV, only reinforces the way SW Virginia voters are going to vote anyway.

AND, Tri-Cities stations only get marginally viewership from Western North Carolina counties, and even then, mostly along the TN-NC border, because the mountains cut the signals off.

A much better media consideration for McCain would have been, a stop in Asheville, North Carolina, and then one in Roanoke, Virginia.. The 3 main reasons being:

1) Only two years ago, Western North Carolina elected Democrat Heath Shuler to Congress, and Tri-Cities station signals simply don’t reach that far down into that state. 2) The Roanoke TV market. A McCain visit in Roanoke would have had more of an impact on Central Virginia voters that all watch WSLS-TV, WDBJ-TV and WSET-TV from Roanoke-Lynchburg, and would have given McCain double-coverage, because Tri-Cities TV stations, mindful of their SW Virginia audience, would cover it extensively for their SW Virginia viewers anyway.

3) WLOS-TV, Asheville. With a transmitter signal coming from atop one of the highest points in the Eastern United States, and blanketing ALL of Western North Carolina, a McCain visit would have saturated the western third of the state, including that Democratic pocket that elected Heath Shuler, and also have been covered extensively by the rest of the North Carolina media.

Thanks, Calvin! .

Election Day Times

Mon/2:07pm

Click here for a full rundown of election times in Tennessee, Georgia, Alabama & North Carolina.

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Mor McCane Mispellingz

Mon/1:49pm

Think Progress has discovered three instances of misspelled words in McCain’s ads that have aired in the last month.

Come on, guys! Do you really have to get them out that fast?

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The Dog That Didn’t Bark

Mon/1:23pm

The Politico’s Jonathan Martin speculates what the 2008 campaign would look like if McCain & surrogates used Rev. Wright as an issue more:

“Conversations with a number of veteran GOP consultants indicate that using Wright may have helped McCain with one set of voters — but would have hurt with others and not ultimately proved decisive in a contest subsumed by larger external forces such as the economic crisis and the unpopularity of President Bush and the Republican Party.”

McCain deserves credit for not ‘going there.’

As Liddy Dole is about to find out, attacking someone’s faith only ends up hurting the attacker in the end.

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Why’s He in Tennessee Today?

Mon/1:18pm

He’s stopping in Blountville - you can be assured I’ll be looking for clips to post later today.

But why Blountville? He’s got the Volunteer State wrapped up.

Marc Ambinder says:

So why is Sen. McCain campaigning in Blountville, TN?

It has nothing to do with Blountville.

It has everything to do with the parts of rural North Carolina and rural Virginia that share its media market.

NewsChannel9 anchor & expert in all things ‘upper-east Tennessee’ Calvin Sneed says:

“I already knew that.. One-third of the audience that WCYB-TV and WJHL-TV reach are in Southwest Virginia up to Roanoake, and Western North Carolina, within a 70 mile circumference of Asheville. Too bad Kentucky is not a swing state. Those two stations also blanket Eastern-Southeastern Kentucky. I also knew two weeks ago, he’d be coming to Tri-Cities before the end of the campaign.”

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Good Gravy!

Mon/1:12PM

As if Georgia’s not enough (scroll down), check out North Carolina’s polls, which have tightened as of today.

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Mapping a McCain Win

Mon/11:48am

Nate Silver looks at several computer models. His top projection is above.

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If You’re Reading This, You’re Part of the Revolution

Mon/10:47am

Look at these numbers from Pew, which shows internet usage has TRIPLED this year, while TV & newspaper usage remains static.

Truly amazing.

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“My Wife Made Me Canvass for Obama”

Mon/10:40am

Read what a former Bush voter in North Carolina found out about voters while canvassing with his wife.

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The Five States to Watch on Election Night

Mon/10:34am

Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight.com (one of the true internet stars of Campaign 2008) says the states to keep an eye on will be:

1. Virginia

2. Colorado

3. Pennsylvania

4. Ohio

5. Nevada

Read why here.

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Does Obama Realistically Have a Shot at Arizona?

Mon/10:30 am

Marc Ambinder speculates & has some things to watch in the Grand Canyon State tomorrow night.

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Not All TN Polling Times Are the Same

Mon/10:16am

The election director in Polk County, TN just e-mailed NewsChannel9:

Please have Channel 9 broadcast Polk, Meigs, and McMinn County Polling Hours on Tuesday, November 4, 2008, to BEGIN AT 9:00 A.M. AND CLOSE AT 8:00 P.M. Your viewers hear Hamilton County hours and assume ours is the same. Your help will be greatly appreciated.

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“Phone Gap” in the Polls?

Mon/10:12am

“The cellphone polls have Obama ahead by an average of 9.4 points; the landline-only polls, 5.1 points.”

- Nate Silver, FiveThirtyEight.com

. Click here to view the embedded video.

Obama in Cincinnati

Mon/10:03am

Above: Obama in Cincinnati yesterday.

I’m keeping an eye out for clips of the candidates today, so check back later.

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Click here to view the embedded video.

McCain in Florida

Mon/10:01am

Above: a midnight rally in Miami, last night.

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Where the Race Stands

Mon/9:54am

Above: NBC’s Chuck Todd maps out McCain’s path to victory.

From Chuck & others at MSNBC’s First Read blog:

*** Obama has a clear lead: With just a day left until Election Day, Obama holds an eight-point lead over McCain among likely voters, 51%-43%, according to the final national NBC/WSJ poll before the election. That’s down slightly from Obama’s 53%-to-42% advantage from almost two weeks ago. Still, to put his current lead into perspective, the last NBC/WSJ survey before the 2004 presidential election showed Bush with a slim one-point edge over Kerry, 48%-47%. Bush went on to win that election, 51%-48%. Looking inside the crosstabs, Obama’s advantage is largely based on his overwhelming success with African Americans (winning them 90%-3%), Latinos (68%-27%), and 18 to 34 year olds (59%-38%). It’s about as solid of a three-legged support stool as any candidate could ask for. Obama also wins independents (48%-38%), blue-collar voters (51%-44%), suburban voters (49%-44%), and Catholics (49%-46%). McCain, meanwhile, has the advantage among evangelicals (78%-19%), those 65 and older (53%-40%), white men (54%-42%), and white women (48%-47%). One more thing: 30% say they’ve already voted, and those voters break by an identical 51%-43% margin. One thing that might keep the McCain folks somewhat hopeful about our numbers: We have Democrats with a +10 advantage on party ID; McCain’s team believes the electorate won’t produce that margin tomorrow.

*** Liking McCain but loving Obama: The poll also shows that McCain and Obama are pretty well liked by voters. McCain has a 47%-39% fav/unfav rating, while Obama’s is larger at 56%-35%. But what’s striking is the intensity gap — almost twice as many respondents (44%) rate Obama “very positive” than they do for McCain (24%). In short, McCain’s supporters like him, but Obama’s LOVE him. Think about that 44% number for a minute: Obama’s overall ballot number is 51%, meaning that 86% of Obama’s supporters have a VERY positive view of him. Not since Reagan in 1980 has a base of supporters loved its nominee so much. Also, for the second-straight NBC/WSJ poll, Palin has a net-negative fav/unfav (39%-48%), while Biden has a net-positive one (50%-30%). In fact, if you add up Obama’s and Biden’s favorable scores, you get 106; for McCain-Palin, it’s 86.

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Good Grief!

Mon/9:45am

Georgia has become THE state to watch.

Just look at those polls!

It’s quite possible (& I chose it as such in the pool) that it could be the state with the closest margin of victory for either candidate.

The Senate race, I believe, is still Saxby Chambliss’ to lose.. but that prediction gets upended, I think, with an Obama upset.

What do you think?

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Where They’re Headed in the Final Stretch

Mon/9:39am

From the AP: “UNDATED (AP) - As if today’s fever-pitch campaigning weren’t enough, the presidential candidates will break tradition and stump on Election Day. John McCain goes to Colorado and New Mexico. Barack Obama swings through Indiana before returning to Chicago. McCain rallied Latino voters just after midnight in Miami. Later this morning, he takes his message to Tampa, then to Tennessee, where he’ll be able to hit the Virginia media market. Pennsylvania, Indiana, New Mexico, Nevada and Arizona also will see McCain. Running mate Sarah Palin is trying to woo conservatives in Ohio, Missouri, Iowa, Colorado and Nevada. Obama’s route is geographically less demanding. He rallies this morning in Jacksonville, Fla., and later goes to Virginia and North Carolina. His running mate, Joe Biden, is going to Missouri, Ohio and Pennsylvania. Polls show the six closest states are Florida, Indiana, Missouri, North Carolina, Nevada and Ohio. The campaigns also are running aggressive ground games elsewhere, including Iowa, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Colorado and Virginia.”

Tennessee? Yes, McCain will be in Blountville. Read more here.

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What’s Gonna Happen?

Mon/9:32am

Click here for a post I added featuring questions for an election night pool that I’m taking part in.

Feel free to register your predictions in the comments section!

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When Polls Close Tomorrow

Mon/8:43am

Courtesy of the Huffington Post

This all gets tossed out the window if lines are long.. which may be why we may not know results of the states on that map until well after the polls are supposed to close..

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Click here to view the embedded video.

Joe the Plumber Questions Obama’s Patriotism

Mon/8:42am

Above: Joe the Plumber on the Fox News Channel over the weekend.

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Click here to view the embedded video.

Palin “Punk’d”

Mon/8:38am

Above: two Canadian comedians fool Palin into thinking she’s talking to the President of France.

. Click here to view the embedded video.

That’s a New One

Mon/8:35am

Above: South Carolina Senator Lindsay Graham, saying the polls demonstrate Barack Obama is “the virtual incumbent,” & thus can’t win in this environment that’s hungry for change.

. Click here to view the embedded video.

New Anti-Biden Ad: “Lies & Sighs”

Mon/8:28am

This ad is effective, but made slightly less so by the misspelling on the screen, 0:56 seconds in:

. Click here to view the embedded video.

Pennsylvania Republicans Bring Up Wright in New Ad

Mon/8:20am

(Warning: blasphemous language)

Why is Pennsylvania such a battleground? Voters don’t vote early there.

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Obamacan Update

Mon/8:13am

Roger Cohen:

“Lifelong Republicans turning to Obama has been one of the themes I’ve picked up in this campaign, ever since, back in January, I ran into Bryant Jones, an Idaho-raised Republican who’d volunteered for Obama in South Carolina.For Jones, it was disenchantment with “my-way-or-the-highway politics and the same old faces.””

“My-way-or-the-highway” politics. That’s a major reason President Bush was such a failure (read more of my thoughts on that here, in yesterday’s post). & I hope that both Democrats and Republicans heed the lesson in this: no matter who is president - but particularly if a President Obama finds himself with a Democratic majority in Congress - we can’t afford to discount a person’s idea because they aren’t a member of the right party. Obama will fall, & fall hard if he tries this. This is the singular reason President Bush did such a bad job - all recent presidents from all recent parties recognized they’d never succeed by paying attention to the needs of just one constituency. UPDATE: Mon/10:23am: More Obamacans explain themselves here & here. .

Why a McCain Win Would Be a Good Thing for Liberals

Mon/8:09am

The conservative New York Times columnist (who bears quite a bit of responsibility for bringing Sarah Palin to the world, not to mention the Iraq war) writes liberals should think the world has ended if John McCain wins, for reasons including:

“It would be a victory for an underdog. Liberals are supposed to like underdogs. McCain is a lonely guy standing up against an unprecedentedly well-financed, superorganized, ExxonMobil-like Obama juggernaut. A McCain upset victory would be a classic liberal happy ending.”

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Why She’s Failed to Catch Fire

Mon/8:02am

Of course she’s caught fire among members of the Republican base. But she’s certainly not winning over independents or moderate Republicans (scroll down for a new poll for more on that).

Peter Beinart suggests it may be that her appearance came at the end of the ‘Culture War:”

“Why has America turned on Sarah Palin? Obviously, her wobbly television interviews haven’t helped. Nor have the drip, drip of scandals from Alaska, which have tarnished her reformist image. But Palin’s problems run deeper, and they say something fundamental about the political age being born. Palin’s brand is culture war, and in America today culture war no longer sells. The struggle that began in the 1960s — which put questions of racial, sexual and religious identity at the forefront of American politics — may be ending. Palin is the end of the line.” .

Strategic Strengths & Weaknesses

Mon/7:57am

Great summary of what went right for Obama & wrong for McCain from E.J. Dionne:

ON McCAIN:

“In state after state during the primaries, McCain drew heavily on the votes of independents, moderates and Republicans who were unhappy with Bush. But instead of carrying on as the un-Bush who defied conservative orthodoxy, McCain embraced the right for fear of losing it. He chose Sarah Palin as his running mate, which finally earned him cries of approval from the GOP base but sent moderate voters scurrying Obama’s way.”"

ON OBAMA:

“He saw an opening for a young African American senator with brief Washington experience, realizing that the very unlikeliness of his candidacy would enhance its attractiveness.

He did more than give Americans a chance to ease the burdens of race. He invited them to embrace his very newness and thereby move past the 1960s, the ’80s, the ’90s and the Bush era all at once. “It’s time to turn the page,” Obama would say, and there were many pages Americans wanted to turn.

His post-everything candidacy, wrapped in a powerful rhetoric of hope, was immensely attractive to the young. They became the happy warriors of campaign manager David Plouffe’s meticulously organized national machine. It worked its magic in neighborhoods never before blessed with even a precinct captain.”

Pretty much the race, in a nutshell.

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ABC Poll: He’s a Net Positive, She’s a Net Negative

Mon/7:53am

From the Washington Post:

Respondents’ reactions to Sarah Palin, the GOP vice presidential nominee, are also closely linked to how much they factor age into their preferences: Sixty percent of those who said age is an important consideration said Palin lowers the odds that they will vote for the GOP ticket. Overall, nearly half of all respondents said they are less likely to vote for McCain because she is on the ticket, a sharp increase from previous polls.

By contrast, Sen. Joseph R. Biden Jr. is a net positive for Obama, even as nearly six in 10 respondents said the senator from Delaware does not influence their views one way or the other.

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ABC Poll: McCain’s ‘Socialist’ Attacks Aren’t Sticking

Mon/7:50am

From the Washington Post:

The new Washington Post-ABC News tracking poll puts Obama well out in front over Republican John McCain and finds that Obama has firmly reestablished his advantage on handling the economy, beaten back a challenge on taxes and has an edge in terms of perceptions about which candidate would better deal with an unexpected major crisis.

The McCain campaign, meanwhile, has countered with improved outreach into the tossup states, neutralizing what had been a big advantage for the Democrat 10 days ago. More than a third of all voters in the six states The Post calls “up for grabs” — Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Montana, Missouri and Indiana — said they have heard from the McCain campaign in the past week. That is up sharply from the third week of October and on par with the number who have been contacted by Obama’s campaign.

Obama and McCain roughly split the vote in the six states combined — 51 percent back Obama, and 47 percent support McCain. Overall in the tracking poll, Obama holds an 11-point advantage, at the top end of the seven-to-11-point range he has held since the final presidential debate in mid-October.”

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Live from New York

Mon/7:39am:

Watch McCain’s funny Saturday Night Live appearance here. Check this Vote08 post to see a clip of an earlier SNL McCain appearance (he sings Streisand!).

UPDATE/Mon-10:09am

James Fallows says this SNL appearance shows that McCain has accepted defeat.

]]> http://vote08.freedomblogging.com/2008/11/03/live-blogging-the-final-day/6335/feed/ http://vote08.freedomblogging.com/2008/10/30/5-days-out/5902/ http://vote08.freedomblogging.com/2008/10/30/5-days-out/5902/#comments Thu, 30 Oct 2008 12:21:58 +0000 Dan Lehr http://vote08.freedomblogging.com/?p=5902

Just 5 Days to Go!

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***Reminder: TODAY’s your LAST DAY to vote early in Tennessee & FRIDAY is your LAST DAY to vote early in Georgia!***

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Straddling the Eras of Slavery & Black Presidential Candidates

Above: 109 year old Texas resident Amanda Jones, daughter of a slave, who just cast her vote for Barack Obama for President.

Regardless of whom you hope will win the White House, this truly is an amazing achievement for our country.

Obama in the Sunshine State

[scroll down to see Biden, McCain & Palin]

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Are Late-Undecided Voters McCain’s ‘Lifeboat?’

Dick Morris thinks the answer is yes.

Nate Silver thinks the answer is no.

This article takes a look at last-week undecided trends from past elections.

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Palin Stumps in Rush’s Hometown

..that would be Cape Girardeau, Missouri. Scroll down to see McCain in Ohio.

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Biden, Like Palin, in the Show-Me State

[Scroll down to see Sarah Palin & John McCain.]

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Can He Keep His Mouth Shut Until Tuesday?

The Politico weighs the pros & cons of Biden’s contributions to the campaign trail.

Also: the Obama campaign tries to clarify Biden’s “mark my words” comment in a new ad:

Click here to view the embedded video.

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Racism Knows No Party

Read examples of racism from the left this election season here.

But whatever you do, don’t pigeonhole rednecks:

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TR’s a Socialist!!!

Read a letter to the New York Times from 1908 that brands McCain’s favorite president with his current favorite perjorative for his opponent.

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Pro-McCain Robocalls Now Hitting Homes in…Arizona

Read more about it here.

Is McCain really in that much trouble in his home state? Check the average of polls here. The Obama camp claims their internal polls are tightening.

Personally, I don’t think he’s going to lose his home state. But it may be the ultimate margin of victory that McCain’s trying to manipulate.

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McCain Ad: He’s Not Ready…Yet

What’s with the “yet” in this ad? Bob Cesca has a theory.

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Is Palin Looking Down the Road to 2012?

It would appear so, based on the clip above. A loss will have the conventional wisdom coronating her as the 2012 front-runner. However, there may be a few in the GOP who have been holding their tongues until after the ballots have been cast.

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Pizza Politics

From Domino’s Pizza, via Marc Ambinder. I sent this out to the newsroom & got a funny response from operations engineer John Creel, whose text below is in red:

Republicans

— Spend more per order than other consumers.

(*WITH THE OIL MONEY PROFITS WE CAN SPEND MORE.)

— They rely on credit cards to pay more than other consumers.

(*DOESN’T EVERYBODY’S HAVE A AMERICAN EXPRESS GOLD CARD.)

– They tend to order two large pizzas at a time, and they’re usually
specialty pizzas.

(*EVERYTHING WORTH HAVING COMES IN 2′S. WE ALL GOTTA PAIR DON’T WE.)
– They are more likely to order online, and more likely to pick up their
orders.

(*LIMOS ARE GREAT FOR PICKING UP PIZZAS, ESPECIALLY WHEN LOBBYIST ARE
BUYING.)

Democrats

— Rely on delivery more than Republicans.

(*DELIVERY BOY IS A JUST A GUY TRYING TO MAKE A BUCK. WE’RE SPREADING THE WEALTH WITH HIM.)

– Pay cash more than other consumers.

(*CREDIT CARDS LEAVE A PAPER TRAIL TO FOLLOW. WE DON’T LIKE ANYTHING TRACEABLE BACK TO US.)

– Like more variety with their orders, opting for side items, chicken and
beverages more than Republicans.

(*WE LIKE OUR PIZZA LIKE OUR POLITICS … LOTS OF VARIETY.)

(*REPUBLICANS CALL THE SIDE ITEMS PORK, BUT WE PUT THEM ON OUR
CONGRESSIONAL BILLS AND VOTERS LOVE THEM.)

Funny stuff, John! Thanks!

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‘Joe’ a No-Show

Oops. Maybe he was recording his album?

More from McCain’ speech in Defiance, Ohio:

Click here to view the embedded video.

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North Carolina Senate Race Gets Ugly

The ad above may be remembered as one of the worst in the country for the year 2008. It’s also a sign of how much trouble Elizabeth Dole finds herself in. The worst part about the ad is the woman saying “there is no God” at the end which is NOT Kay Hagan, Dole’s opponent. No politician who has integrity - on either side of the aisle - would do something like that.

…but how much of the ad is true? Click here for a fact-check.

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Georgia Senate Race Called a ”Tossup”

Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight.com speculates on the spellbinding Georgia Senate race:

“Very quick observation about Georgia’s senate race, which along with California’s Proposition 8, may be the thing to watch on Election Night in the event of an Obama blowout. The polls, from what I can tell, are showing a fairly high undecided vote among the African-American population. Rasmussen’s most recent poll, which had Saxby Chambliss up by two, shows that 12 percent of black voters are undecided in the senate race. Were those voters to split 4:1 to Jim Martin, that would be worth a net of around 2 points to him, making the race a tie. SurveyUSA, likewise, shows a higher rate of undecideds among black voters (7%) than among whites (3%).

Related thought: it’s very difficult to imagine what a Chambliss-Obama voter looks like. It’s pretty easy to imagine what a McCain-Martin voter looks like. So if the Georgia polls have Obama down by 4 or 5 points, but Martin down by 2 or 3 points (as they do), something doesn’t quite seem right; I’d think the gap should be a bit wider.

Basically, I think this race is a true toss-up rather than a Lean R. African-American voters might be unfamiliar with Jim Martin, who didn’t become the nominee until August, but the ‘D’ beside his name is worth a lot..”
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Local Early Voting Report

Above: at long last, the folks at Freedom Blogging have finally enabled me to post videos from NewsChannel9.com here. Above: NewsChannel9’s Erica Green has an early voting report.

The Hamilton County Election Commission says as of Wednesday, 61576 people have voted early.

Reminder: TODAY’s your LAST DAY to vote early in Tennessee & FRIDAY is your LAST DAY to vote early