Above: details from a new Pew research poll that says while a majority of people think Barack Obama is running the more positive campaign, they’re already sick of hearing about him.
What do you think?
This is sort of a (far more detailed, literate & respectful) follow up to CNN’s sojourn to Copperhill, Tennessee.
This week’s Newsweek takes a look at perceptions of Barack Obama in the south, & writer Christopher Dickey chose a path that’s the reverse of General Sherman’s march to see what folks think of the Democratic candidate:
“I found whites frustrated and indecisive about the campaign, families at odds, generations divided. Many who thought themselves beyond prejudice were surprised by their suspicions of the young black man from up north. Meanwhile, many slave-descended blacks, hugely supportive of the half-Kenyan, half-Kansan, Hawaii-reared Obama, seemed afraid to hope too much, inoculating themselves with pessimism about the chances that any man of color could win the presidency, even this man, even today, or that, if he does, he will survive. As I say, emotions are raw. “
Again, read more here, & then come back to discuss in the comment section!
UPDATE: An interesting quote from Publius, who writes for a blog called Obsidian Wings:
“I’m a child of the rural South. But you know what? Actual racism is a lot less common there — we have a ways to go, but there has been real progress on that front.
The more serious problem is white resentment. A lot of white people honestly think they have been significantly deprived of various things because of minorities. And it’s hard to overstate how deeply these feelings run. It’s not so much animosity toward people who are different — it’s the animosity of the aggrieved. They feel like they are the victims.
That’s why race is a losing issue for Obama — it’s not so much that people are racist, but that they feel they are being punished because they’re white (yes, I know how completely absurd this must sound to the black community).”
Need help with deciding whom to vote for this year?
Don’t worry - there’s plenty of time yet. & we hope you do your homework.
If you need some help, here are a few sites where you can enter your preferences on a wealth of issues to find out which candidate provides the best fit:
& this one’s a bit more complicated.. but gets you closer to exactly where you stand on the political spectrum:
I hope this helps, & may I suggest keeping that Match Game YouTube clip playing while you make your selections.
(above: my 4 pets. Hey, it’s my blog, indulge me. No, I don’t know how they lean politically.)
WASHINGTON (AP) - If the presidential election were to go to the dogs, then John McCain looks like the best in show.
A new Associated Press-Yahoo News poll finds that pet owners favor McCain 42 to 37 percent over Barack Obama, with dog owners especially high on the Arizona senator.
Obama doesn’t have a pet at home. But McCain has a menagerie, including two dogs, two turtles, two cats, a ferret, three parakeets and a school of saltwater fish.
On the other hand, the poll also finds that among people who don’t have pets, Obama leads McCain 48 to 34 percent.
But that still leaves McCain looking strong, because 63 percent of all American homes have some kind of pet.
Obama has reportedly promised his daughters a dog once the campaign is over.
Boy have we found more material on this.
Dog That Says “Obama” #1:
Dog That Says “Obama” #2
Parrot Who’s a Huge Obama fan:
[Alas, the animals on the YouTubes who can say “John McCain” are just not there. Please check yourself & let me know if you find any.. if for nothing else in the interest of equal time.]
Here’s a site that helps you determine the party affiliation of your dog.
Click here to find out what kind of dog the Baltimore Sun says McCain would be.
Click here to find out what kind of dog the Baltimore Sun says Obama would be.
& finally, Heaven help us, here’s a site called “Dogs for McCain.”
What’s the first word that comes to your mind when you hear the word “Obama” or “McCain?”
The AP is out with a new poll that has the answer:
My answer for both candidates is, of course, “blog-material.”
How would you answer the question? Let us know by posting a comment!
I’m a sucker for focus groups in presidential elections. They just provide a window into the minds of voters that opinion polls really aren’t able to deliver.
MSNBC’s First Read blog has details on one just finished in York, Pennsylvania, among 12 voters who did not vote for Obama or McCain in that state’s primary. Here’s their first post:
YORK, PA — A focus group conducted last night here in a county that Hillary Clinton carried in April showed that her supporters are coming around to Obama. But the group — 12 likely voters, all white, and all of whom didn’t back either Obama or McCain in the primary — also demonstrated that both candidates have plenty of work to do between now and November.
The good news for Obama: Of the seven Clinton supporters, all of whom backed her strongly, five were solidly behind the Illinois senator, one was fiercely opposed (“I don’t trust Obama,” he said), and one was undecided (but noted that Clinton’s support of Obama would influence her vote). The bad news: On some questions of character, patriotism, and values (who would you rather carry the American flag at the Olympics, who would you rather carpool with), the focus group overwhelmingly picked McCain. While Jeremiah Wright barely came up and “bitter” didn’t at all, two of the respondents — the Clinton supporter and a female Bush voter — had very negative opinions of him. “I don’t trust Osama … Obama. It’s only a letter difference,” said Charles, the Hillary backer. “His middle name is Hussein.” Observed Terry, the female Bush voter: “I don’t feel he’s a true American.”
Aside#1: for the record, it’s my opinion that saying “gee, I dunno - Osama, Obama, the names are just one letter apart” is about an informed & measured choice as putting two pieces of paper on the ground with “McCain” & “Obama” on them & choosing the candidate based on which piece of paper is nearest to where your dog does his next #2.
& someone please, please explain to me - in detail - how Obama is “not a true American.” He was born on U.S. soil. He’s over 35 years of age. He has lived on U.S soil for more than 14 years. There are no other Constitutional requirements for running for president, nor should there be.
Back to the focus group now.
*** Views of Obama: Overall, however, Obama fared pretty well in this focus group, which was striking given that it was all white, that not a single person voted for him in the primary, and that it took place in a region not considered a strength for him. Five said they would vote for him, four backed McCain, and three said they were undecided. Democratic pollster Peter Hart, who conducted the focus group for the Annenberg School at the University of Pennsylvania, said Obama benefited from a room wanting change and to move beyond Bush. What skeptics were looking for, he added, was some “meat on the bone.” The five who said they would vote for him cited his fresh ideas, intelligence, grasp of the issues, and excitement and energy. The four who opposed him — all Bush voters, save Charles, the Hillary supporter — stressed his inexperience and their fears of him being commander-in-chief. And of the three who were undecided, one said they wanted to know more about his health-care plans; another wanted to know more about the kind of change he would bring; and the third said she was considering Obama because of change.
& later in the day from a 2nd post:
YORK, PA — Earlier this morning, we reported on some of the findings of a focus group that was conducted here by Democratic pollster Peter Hart. Below are some more observations from the 12 likely voters (all of whom didn’t support Obama or McCain in the April primary) from this important battleground state:
Hillary Clinton. Most of the participants had very positive views of the New York senator, especially the seven of the 12 who supported her in the primary. (Clinton beat Obama in York County, 55%-45%.) Words used to describe her: “personable,” “experienced, “so smart,” and “great first lady.” Kirby, a Democrat who now says he backs Obama, noted that Clinton “knew her way around” Washington and the White House. He also added, “I think it’s time for a woman president.”
McCain’s Age. The participants brought up this subject frequently, particularly when Hart asked them about uncertainties concerning McCain. Kim, who voted for Bush in ‘04, backed Clinton in the primary and is undecided in the Obama-McCain contest, responded to this question with one word: “age.” She even mentioned the possibility of Alzheimer’s. Michelle B., who supports Obama, said: “I am looking for somebody younger.”
Aside #2: Memo to anyone who has concerns about McCain’s age: you try doing what he’s done for the past 16 months - 14 hour days, non-stop travelling, glad-handing, speeches, etc. - & see if that’s something you’re physically up for. I think the fact that he has kept up with the rough-&-tumble of presidential politicking thus far is a good counter to the age argument.
Obama’s Race. Near the end of the 2 1/2-hour focus group, Hart asked what the effect would be of having the country’s first black president. William, who backs McCain, said the “world will be watching” — in how whites, blacks, and other races react to it. Janell, the Republican who remains undecided, argued that it shouldn’t make a difference (that Obama being elected should have the same impact if a white person was elected to the United States). Tony, who served in Iraq and Afghanistan and supports McCain, added: “I think there is still a lot of racism in the country.”
When Hart asked whether race was a barrier for Obama, Janell replied that this country needs the best candidate, regardless of color or race. Kirby answered that he’s disappointed the topic even comes up, especially given that Obama’s multi-racial. Terry, who won’t vote for Obama, said she is fearful for the safety of Obama and his wife. “The real world doesn’t do well with change.” And Charles, the Hillary supporter who said he’s backing McCain, said there could be riots if Obama is elected. He was the only person out of the 12 to share that opinion.
The Media. There was one universal opinion at the focus group — shared by men, women, Republicans, Democrats, Obama supporters, and McCain backers — the media haven’t done a good job covering the election. Susan, a Democrat who’s for Obama, talked about the “overkill” of analysis; Charles said there was a pro-Obama bias; and Michelle B. didn’t like the constant discussion of race. Kirby put it this way: When you have 24-hour cable news, “there is not that much [else] to talk about.”
On that last point: ouch. Please, Vote08 blog readers, if you think this blog fits the above description - tell me!
What do you think of this focus group? Post your thoughts in the comment button!
Welcome to Kentucky/Oregon primary day!
*Oregon’s is a closed primary. Registerd Democrats only.
*52 delegates are at stake
*The entire state votes by mail-in ballot, unlike all others. This could complicate things, as this Washington Post article explains.
*The Oregonian newspaper says turnout is likely to top 1 million. But that’s below their all-time record.
*Like Oregon, Kentucky’s a closed primary. Registered Democrats only.
*51 delegates are at stake.
It looks as if both Obama & Clinton will chalk up a win today.
But Barack Obama’s may be the more significant one, in that he could cross the threshold of a majority of pledged delegates offered in the entire contest.
Hillary’s got another trick up her sleeve, though. After today, she plans to claim she has won the popular vote.
What do you think? Who will win? Post a comment!
Above: a map breaking down the the U.S. by county, with colors indicating which counties went for which Democratic candidates in the state primaries (this was done before yesterday’s West Virginia vote).
Blue = Obama
Red = Clinton
Green = Edwards
Note how the NewsChannel 9 viewing area is solid Hillary country.
More maps & details at the Daily Kos.
Hillary Clinton won West Virginia by a 2-to-1 margin last night, 67% to Obama’s 26%.
Watch her victory speech:
But the math remains a tough nut to crack.
Today Obama picked up three more superdelegates.
Yes, we’re back & feeling somewhat better. Thanks for all the kind get-well words. We have 5 posts in the works for today, so check back.
Hillary Clinton can’t close the deal, & her prospects for securing the Democratic nomination are slimmer as of this morning.
Exit poll results here. Interesting tidbits:
Now for some Cherokee County results! This is the only North Carolina county in the NewsChannel 9 viewing area [in red in the above map]. Despite a huge loss across the state [particularly in the central region known as the “research triangle,”], Clinton won huge in Cherokee County, 73%-25%. Interestingly, neighboring Clay County had the exact same percentage with about half the number of voters than Cherokee County. Details here from the hometown paper, the Cherokee Scout.
Another interesting Cherokee County factoid:
A majority-Democrat county in the south? Yes, it’s more common than you think - Grundy County, Tennessee often shakes out the same way, too. The reason? Many southerners are so conservative that they vote against Republicans because of “that rogue Abraham Lincoln.” No, seriously.
What about Rush Limbaugh’s “Operation Chaos” effect? It seems to have been a factor in Indiana, as outlined here. [by the way, we’d like to go on the record to say we have absolutely no problem with the strategy behind Operation Chaos. Democracies are messy things, & voters of all stripes have every right to vote how they want. To try to put a stop to it somehow would tarnish the democratic values we all share.]
Obama’s victory speech in North Carolina:
Clinton’s “victory” speech in Indiana [2 parts]:
So what happens next?
..ONLY THE UNCOMMITTED/UNDECLARED SUPERDELEGATES KNOW FOR SURE! STAY TUNED!!
Details on North Carolina polls here.
Details on Indiana polls here.
What the candidates should know about Indiana.
What the candidates should know about North Carolina.
Five things to look for in the Indiana results.
Five things to look for in the North Carolina results.
Eight questions that may be answered after today.
Native North Carolinian John Edwards & his wife Elizabeth (surprisingly) say they’re not going to endorse either candidate. See what their likes & dislikes are for each candidate here.
Will the North Carolina results drive Hillary to drink? Matt Drudge got his hands on an internal ‘expectations’ memo from the Clinton campaign that says yes.
Below: Obama campaigns in Indiana
Below: Clinton campaigns in Indiana
Below: Obama campaigns in North Carolina
Below: Bill Clinton campaigns in North Carolina
Your turn! Who’s gonna win which state?? PLEASE comment!!!!
HAPPY PENNSYLVANIA PRIMARY DAY!
More links & clips about today than you can shake a cheesesteak at, after you click “read the rest of this entry.
PBS’s Judy Woodruff interviewed a roundtable of average Americans - Republicans, Democrats, & Independents - on the Iraq war on the NewsHour with Jim Lehrer (no relation) last night.
It was fascinating to watch. (there will be further discussions tonight & tomorrow on the economy & the presidential race, respectively, & we recommend you tune in).
After the jump, the transcript. Vote08 is incredibly busy today with both the 5 & 5:30 newscasts to write, but we hope to inject our opinion into the discussion later today. Help continue this conversation by posting a comment!
JUST IN: TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (AP) - Florida Democrats have abandoned plans to redo the presidential primary with a mostly mail-in vote. Party leaders had expressed concerns about the proposal. The party plan was to run a second primary to seat the state’s delegates at the August convention. The state party considered the idea because the Democratic National Committee is refusing to award delegates based on Florida’s Jan. 29 primary, in which Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton won. The DNC stripped Florida of its delegates because party rules didn’t allow the state to vote before Feb. 5.
Mark Halperin’s page, The Page, over at Time Magazine, has the full letter from the Florida Democratic party. Key paragraph:
“A party-run primary or caucus has been ruled out, and it’s simply not possible for the state to hold another election, even if the Party were to pay for it. Republican Speaker of the Florida House Marco Rubio refuses to even consider that option. Florida is finally moving to paper ballots, which is a good thing, but it means that at least 15 counties do not have the capacity to handle a major election before the June 10th DNC primary deadline. This doesn’t mean that Democrats are giving up on Florida voters. It means that a solution will have to come from the DNC Rules & Bylaws Committee, which is scheduled to meet again in April.”
This is not good news for the Clinton campaign.
What’ll happen? Will they split the delegates 50-50? Or how about adhering to the rules so states won’t try the same thing Florida & Michigan did this year?
What do you think?
Barack Obama won the Mississippi primary yesterday, 61% to Clinton’s 37%.
Based on those percentages, Obama will get 17 of the state’s 33 delegates, & Clinton will get 11. (there are 5 superdelegates still hanging).
Current delegate count: Obama 1606, Clinton 1484.
After the jump, we’ll
Welcome to Mississippi Primary Day, the latest in our state primary/caucus travelogue.
33 delegates are at stake in today’s Magnolia state contest.
After the jump, we delve into polls & predictions — plus find out which state should have had their primary today.. but didn’t.
Wyoming’s Devil’s Tower in the eastern part of the state offers an apt current metaphor, dontcha think?
It’s a safe assumption that Wyoming Democrats are a rare breed.
Republicans outnumber them in most districts by 2 to 1 — in some, they’re outnumbered 20 to 1.
But this weekend, those rare Democrats are going to get a big say in the momentum of the race to the Democratic nomination. 12 (suddenly crucial) delegates are up for grabs.
Some thoughts on whom the state will favor (& keeping with tradition a look at some of the state foods), after the jump.
The latest, post-Super Tuesday II poll in Pennsylvania comes from Rasmussen:
Clinton: 52%..Obama: 37%
Interesting tidbits from the poll:
With 47 days left until the primary, you can be sure these numbers will change.
Depend on the Vote08 blog to keep you posted! (You might as well bookmark us!)p.s. here’s one young lady’s solution to picking a president this year:
Who won last night? EVERYBODY DID!
Forgive Vote08 for lapsing into an old liberal stereotype, but after the jump, we’ll make our case & put the night’s biggest winners in order of magnitude.
75 years ago today, Franklin Delano Roosevelt gave his first inaugural address. It was that speech in which the line “the only thing we have to fear is fear itself” was first uttered.
Here’s a newsreel clip of that speech.
After the jump, we’ll show you some successful examples of the use of fear during a presidential campaign in the form of television ads.
One of my colleagues in the newsroom writes
I review the show Lost for newschannel9.com, but I’m lost when it comes to the Texas Delegates. What is the unique way in which Texas awards delegates? And why is it that the media claims Clinton needs 55% to “break even” in Texas? - Matt Brunson
Matt, you’ve come to the right place, just as Lost fans will come to the right place by clicking on your Lost preview/review page.
Texas’ election rules are as complicated as the plot to Lost. It is an open primary.. & a caucus. Delegates matter in a different way than they do in other states. If you’d like to do some homework, the best site I’ve found explaining Texas election rules can be found here & here, in a blog called “Burnt Orange Report” that, frankly, puts this one to shame. If you’d like to see this blogger’s (extremely researched) prediction as to what will happen, click here.
From what I can tell, the advantage comes down to who can win districts with the highest population of Democratic voters. Hillary Clinton could win by 80% in President Bush’s home district, but she won’t be allocated as many delegates because there aren’t as many Democratic voters there are Republican voters. Whoever can win college towns like Austin, with high percentages of Democratic voters, will get the delegate advantage. This as you may have deduced puts Hillary Clinton at a disadvantage. She will have to win the entire state by close to 60%, & the most recent polls taken there shows she faces an extremely uphill battle.
Matt, I hope this helps answer your questions so you’re no longer “lost!”
MARYLAND:
Obama 59, Clinton 37
McCain 55, Huckabee 29
(full vote count here)
VIRGINIA:
Obama 64, Clinton 35
McCain 51, Huckabee 40
DC:
Obama 75, Clinton 64 (latest vote count here)
McCain 68, Huckabee 17 (latest vote count here)
UPDATED (AP) DELEGATE COUNT:
Clinton 1198, Obama 1223. He leads for the first time.
McCain 821, Huckabee 241. The Huck still needs a miracle.
The Washington Post’s Dan Balz has some essential reading for anyone who’s curious as to how the campaign will evolve from here.
The latest AP Democratic delegate count as of Monday (yes, you need to start paying attention to this):
Obama: 1108
Clinton: 1136
(needed to win: 2025)
Voters handed Barack Obama a victory & gave Mike Huckabee a reason to smile over the weekend. After the jump, we’ll take a look at the numbers & see where the candidates stand going into tomorrow’s Crabcake primaries in Virginia, Washington DC, & Maryland.
Plus, if you haven’t heard the Mike Huckabee fried squirrel story yet that’s making the rounds, you’ll hear the candidate explain it all..
& Vote08 digresses about the sometimes-testy relationship between past Presidents & squirrels!
So are we done yet? 
