Read the runoff results here - it was a(n expected) blowout: 57% to 42%.
I’ll have NewsChannel 9 viewing area county results & my thoughts on who really stands to gain with this victory after the jump.
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Archive for the 'Voters' Category
IT’S THE NIGHT THAT THE LIGHTS WILL GO OUT FOR SOMEONE
December 2nd, 2008, 8:34 am by Dan Lehr
Today’s runoff day.
Polls in Georgia are open until 7.
What’s at stake?
Some good analysis from Time Magazine’s Michael Grunwald
JIM MARTIN’S LONG ODDS
December 1st, 2008, 12:33 pm by Dan Lehr
From Southern Political Report:
“…how many African American voters - who in our latest survey favored Martin by over 90% - will feel compelled to go to the polls on Tuesday?
PERSISTENT & PRESENT POLARIZATION
November 20th, 2008, 8:19 am by Dan Lehr
Above: a map from RealClearPolitics.com’s Jay Cost, measuring the degree of polarization between the parties going back to the 1976 election.
Cost is using the term ‘polarization’ to measure the depth of support for one side’s candidate or the other.
Interesting to note: Tennessee didn’t become a ‘polarized state’ until earlier this month, & Georgia hasn’t been a ‘polarized state’ since hometown boy Jimmy Carter won 32 years ago.
Also, take note: Utah is the only state with ‘polarized’ status every single election.
Cost’s advice for the president-elect, based on these numbers:
DOWN IN THE LAND OF COTTON
November 17th, 2008, 2:04 pm by Dan Lehr
Above: Strange Maps overlays 2008 election results with concentrations of cotton production in the 1800s.
Fascinating, & proof that the great northern migration wasn’t a total one.
IN CASE YOU THINK IT ISN’T ‘REAGANESQUE’
November 15th, 2008, 1:16 pm by Dan Lehr
“In 1980, the Republican Party platform spoke at length to blacks and Hispanics, promising to stand “shoulder to shoulder with black Americans” in the fight against racism and to “pursue policies that will help to make opportunities of American life a reality for Hispanics.” That year, Ronald Reagan captured Read the rest of this entry »
ONCE-SAFE TERRITORY’S BEEN PLUNDERED
November 15th, 2008, 1:06 pm by Dan Lehr
“…there are signs in this year’s returns of voter shifts that could herald a new political era — and that certainly define the challenge facing the Republican Party.
Several of the most important are pointed up in memos I received this past week from Stan Greenberg, a Democratic pollster, and Steve Lombardo, a Republican consultant. They were done independently, but there were significant overlaps.
Greenberg’s post-election survey for Democracy Corps found that the three most important reasons voters gave for supporting Obama concerned his promises to Read the rest of this entry »
365
November 14th, 2008, 3:56 pm by Dan Lehr
OMAHA, Neb. (AP) - President-elect Barack Obama has won one of Nebraska’s electoral votes, making history in a state that has never split its electoral votes.
After all remaining ballots were counted Friday, Obama emerged with a 3,325-vote lead over Republican John McCain in unofficial results in the 2nd Congressional District. The district covers Douglas County, which includes Omaha, and portions of adjacent Sarpy County.
Nebraska, with five votes, and Maine are the only states that divide their electoral votes by congressional district.
Obama now has 365 electoral votes to McCain’s 162.
Missouri, with 11 electoral votes, is still too close to call. Election officials there have until Tuesday to finish counting.
ONE GETS IT, THE OTHER DOESN’T
November 14th, 2008, 1:38 pm by Dan Lehr
Above: A radio spot by the victorious Tennessee Senator Lamar Alexander, which aired in Memphis, & was voiced-over by a prominent retired African-American judge.
He didn’t have to do it. He had a commanding lead all year long, & could have coasted with just the party faithful.
But to his credit, Alexander’s strategy helped him carry a sizable segment of the black vote on November 4th:
“While colleagues like Senator Elizabeth Dole of North Carolina were coming out on the losing end in part because of a strong African-American vote for their opponents, Mr. Alexander, who had a record of appointing blacks to government and education positions, was able to win about 26 percent of the black vote.”
“It’s something deserving of at least grudging political respect, if not outright kudos.”
You’d think this is a strategy that would at least cross the mind of a Senator who’s in the fight for his life one state to the south.
But instead… this is what we’re hearing:
WHILE WE’RE ON THE SUBJECT OF HILLARY..
November 14th, 2008, 10:30 am by Dan Lehr
What would have happened if she won the primaries? Some are speculating based on November 4th exit polls:
DECIPHERING GEORGIA RUNOFF POLLS
November 14th, 2008, 10:07 am by Dan Lehr
.
From WMAZ:
A campaign visit from Barack Obama would sway more voters in Georgia’s U.S. Senate runoff than John McCain’s visit on behalf of Saxby Chambliss, according to a 13WMAZ-SurveyUSA poll.
The poll of 550 registered voters says 30 percent would more likely to vote for challenger Jim Martin if Obama came to Georgia to campaign on his behalf, but 29 percent would be less likely.
&
- 45 percent of the voters polled said they had favorable opinions of Chambliss, the Republican incumbent. 29 percent had unfavorable opinion, 19 percent were neutral, 7 percent had no opinion.
– More voters had unfavorable than favorable opinions of Martin: 34 percent liked him, 37 percent didn’t, 18 percent were neutral and 10 percent had no opinion.
– 87 percent of the voters said they’ll vote in the runoff. Eight percent said they wouldn’t, and 5 percent they weren’t sure. Ninety-five percent of Republicans were sure they would vote compared to 85 percent of Democrats.
The poll did not ask people how they intended to vote.
TN EVANGELICALS COME THROUGH FOR McCAIN
November 12th, 2008, 11:35 am by Dan Lehr
KNOXVILLE, Tenn. (AP) - Their presidential candidate lost and their influence in national politics may be waning, but white born-again Christians clearly won the 2008 election in Tennessee.
Even for the buckle of the Bible Belt, their majority was surprising - two of every three white voters in Tennessee identified themselves as evangelical Christians in exit polls.
This in a state where 84 percent of the voters are white.
Political pollster Ken Blake says the importance that John McCain’s supporters put on shared values underscores the role that religion plays in Tennessee presidential politics. Those values included opposition to abortion.
McCain carried Tennessee but lost the election. Yet white evangelicals likely helped elect new Republican majorities in the Tennessee Legislature.
Overall, 52 percent of Tennessee voters were white born-again Christians. Only Arkansas, with 55 percent, was higher.
Other interesting factoids about November 4th & the religious:
HOOSIER PREFERENCE?
November 8th, 2008, 12:02 pm by Dan Lehr
Indiana: One of Obama’s success stories.
George Bush won Indiana in 2004 by 510,000 votes.
Barack Obama won Indiana in 2008 by 9,000 votes.
That means Obama improved Democratic turnout by 519,000 votes Tuesday.
How did he do against Clinton in the Hoosier state primary? Click here to find out.
[& check out which other state had its primary on the same day, interestingly]
E-DAY PLUS 3, I-DAY MINUS 77***
November 7th, 2008, 9:41 am by Dan Lehr
Hamilton County Voter Turnout Bucks National Trend
Thanks go to my News Director, who found these on Hamilton County’s Election Commission site:
2008: 72%
2004: 78%
2000: 64%
1996: 67%
Nationwide 2008 turnout: Estimated at 62.5%, up from 60.3%
,
Unemployment Spikes
We learn today that 240,000 jobs were lost in October; the national rate goes up from 6.1% to 6.5%.
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Transition Underway
Illinois Congressman Rahm Emmanuel signs on as WH Chief of Staff. Read the statements from both Obama & Emanuel here.
Why Rahm? Marc Ambinder muses.
Hillary Clinton approves of the pick, House Minority Leader John Boehner does not.
The Emanuel pick signals the transition will be quick; read more about the overall plan here.
Obama plans to give his 1st news conference as president-elect; read more about what he’ll reveal today here.
Before that newser, he’ll hold a conference with his economic advisers; read more about that here.
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The Autopsy: What Went Wrong?
Charles Krauthammer says it was the economy:
“We have never had a full-fledged financial panic in the middle of a presidential campaign. Consider. If the S&P 500 were to close at the end of the year where it did on Election Day, it will have suffered this year its steepest drop since 1937. That is 71 years.
At the same time, the economy had suffered nine consecutive months of job losses. Considering the carnage to both capital and labor (which covers just about everybody), even a Ronald Reagan could not have survived. The fact that John McCain got 46 percent of the electorate when 75 percent said the country was going in the wrong direction is quite remarkable.”
Andrew Sullivan disagrees with Krauthammer’s premise.
He’s correct in that assessment, but I’d also give as much weight to the damaged Republican brand.
It’s my view that that the country did not swing more Democratic, as some left-leaning sites are saying. I would say this is a vote more against ideology & for pragmatism. This is a trend I’ve tracked ever since August 29th, 2005. & I believe Tuesday’s voters weren’t necessarily giving Democrats a big thumbs up - they were giving a thumbs-down to the ineffective policies of the party in power, which happened to be the Republicans.
Voters are hungry for results & had their fill of ideologues.
As I’ve said to many in the past 3 years, the successful politicians will be those who work to deliver results to their consituencies - no matter which party they belong to.
More thoughts throughout the day.
Weigh in yourself! Why did McCain lose?
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SAXBY WINS, CHAPTER 2
December 3rd, 2008, 11:21 am by Dan LehrMarc Ambinder:
“Habitual voters tend to vote in special elections; in Georgia, there are more Republican habitual voters than Democratic habitual voters; the minds of Republican habitual voters were no doubt focused on Chambliss’s sudden cameo as the bullwark against an overweening Democratic majority. But these habitual voters are an ideologically charged subset of the electorate. On November 4, 3.7 million Georgians voted. Yesterday, about 2.1 million Georgians did.
Read the rest of this entry »
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