One of McCain’s veepstakes finalists reveals he ended up taking himself out of contention. Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal is just 37, & is frequently mentioned as a way to bring diversity to the GOP ticket in 2012.

From the Fix:

“Jindal was approached by McCain forces to gauge his interest in the vice presidency and told them he was not interested in being vetted due to his desire to continue on with his current job, to which he was elected just one year ago.

While the official reason that Jindal took his name out of contention was his lack of a desire to leave the Louisiana governorship, there was also real trepidation within his political inner circle that Jindal might wind up as the pick — McCain was attracted to his comprehensive health-care knowledge — and be caught up in what they believed to be a less-than-stellar campaign that could pin a loss on Jindal without much ability to change or control the direction of the contest.”

Yes, this is hindsight, but that was ultimately a wise decision.

There’s already a push to make him the nominee, as this YouTube clip demonstrates:

Today’s Episode: Biden warns of a coming international crisis for the next president…Julia Louis-Dreyfuss goes “in the tank” for Biden…whether Biden is a “Mr. August,” “Mr. October” or a “Mr. January…

Warning of “Crisis”

From MSNBC’s First Read:

“Attracting the most attention this morning was his prediction on Sunday that within six months of his administration, Obama would be tested just as John F. Kennedy was.

“Watch, we’re gonna have an international crisis, a generated crisis, to test the mettle of this guy,” Biden said. “And he’s gonna have to make some really tough — I don’t know what the decision’s gonna be, but I promise you it will occur. As a student of history and having served with seven presidents, I guarantee you, it’s gonna happen.”

The McCain campaign has pounced on the statement as Biden perhaps implying that Obama could not handle a crisis alone. The Obama campaign disagrees, however, saying Biden just “referenced the simple fact that history shows Presidents face challenges from day one.”

And they emphasize the larger context of Biden’s statement, that the nation would be “in the right hands” with Obama. The help Biden was calling for was as support for Obama would have to make “sound,” though likely unpopular decisions.

“Be prepared to stick with us,” he said. “Remember the faith you had at this point because you’re going to have to reinforce us.”

It is noteworthy, though, how similar Biden’s comments were to a statement in June by McCain supporter Joe Lieberman, one that was strongly criticized by Obama supporters.

“Our enemies will test the new president early,” Lieberman said on “Face the Nation.” “Remember that the truck bombing of the World Trade Center happened in the first year of the Clinton administration. 9/11 happened in the first year of the Bush administration.”

Biden’s assessment would seem in line with Lieberman’s, but rather than evoking the potential for a crisis as evidence Obama was not ready, Biden raised the notion to argue precisely the opposite.

Julia Louis-Dreyfuss “In the Tank” for Biden

Above: from yesterday’s Ellen Degeneres show. This was a fundraiser for breast cancer research.

A ‘January Pick’

From Ryan Lizza’s recent New Yorker piece called “Biden’s Brief::

In 2004, when John Kerry was conducting his search for a running mate, he divided his options into three groups, based on the electoral calendar. “Kerry said you can pick either a Mr. August, a Mr. October, or a Mr. January,” David Wade, who was Kerry’s press secretary at the time and is now serving in that role for Biden, told me. “In a perfect world, you have someone who is all three.”

By Kerry’s logic, Sarah Palin, the Alaska governor, whom John McCain named as his running mate, was an August pick, a choice made by a candidate who was falling behind and needed to re-start his campaign at his nominating Convention. An August pick can also help unite a party after a divisive primary. An October pick, too, tends to be political—someone with strong, even strident campaign skills, who might help to carry a state or a demographic group. Kerry’s choice—John Edwards—may have fallen into that category.

August and October picks have become something of an anachronism, and in that way Palin is a throwback to an era when Vice-Presidents were chosen by party professionals, strictly for electoral reasons. In office, they had little influence; sometimes, at the whim of the President or out of political expedience, they were dumped from the ticket. Abraham Lincoln dumped Hannibal Hamlin for Andrew Johnson in 1864, and F.D.R. got rid of John Nance Garner in 1940 and Henry Wallace in 1944 (replacing him with Harry Truman).

Probably the greatest failure in the job since the Second World War was Spiro Agnew—the relatively unknown governor of a small state, Maryland, with no experience of Washington. It is hard to avoid comparing Agnew’s qualifications with Palin’s, despite all the talk about her “maverick” spirit, her role as the first female on a Republican national ticket, and her presumed appeal not only to the “base” but to disaffected Hillary Clinton voters. Like McCain, Nixon picked someone he knew would surprise people. Like Palin, Agnew was unleashed to attack the élites of his day and the press—“an effete corps of impudent snobs.”

Every Presidential candidate professes to want someone with the ability to help govern the country, and, in fact, the January running mate has become more common. Not surprisingly, the most powerful modern Vice-Presidents have been politicians who had congressional experience and long Washington résumés—Walter Mondale, George H. W. Bush, Al Gore, and Dick Cheney. The January pick has increasingly become a good October choice, too. In recent elections, running mates chosen more for political reasons have fared less well than veterans.

In 2000, Joe Lieberman, who had outspokenly criticized Bill Clinton’s affair with Monica Lewinsky, and was selected in large part to help Al Gore distance himself from the Clinton sex scandal, was not a great help for Gore.

Edwards, in 2004, was chosen partly for his campaign skills, though Kerry had reportedly wanted the more stolid Dick Gephardt, the former House Majority Leader, and was deeply disappointed at his performance on the trail and in his debate with Dick Cheney. There was certainly an initial burst of enthusiasm for Palin, and large crowds continue to attend her rallies, but she is popular mostly with an increasingly angry and frustrated Republican base and has been unable to stall McCain’s steep descent in the polls; sixty per cent of the public believes that she is not qualified to be President.”

Read the full article here.

Click here to view the embedded video.

How did I think it went? See how much my predictions & advice played out after the jump.

This will be briefer than I’d like, as this is my Saturday for the week & I’m not even supposed to be at work.

But.

Go to the link above 1st before reading further.

Let’s start with my predictions:

-Palin will do far better than expected. Absolutely the case. Not in any doubt. The expectations were extremely low, & she managed to finish (nearly breathlessly) without a major gaffe.

-Biden will do far better than expected. Again, this was true. Biden did not get long-winded, did not try to demonstrate that he was the smartest person in the room, & did not trip the gender mines that were placed all around him.

-Both candidates only have about a 25% chance of committing a self-inflicted wound. I think the closest Palin came to a self-inflicted wound was an obvious deflection (more than once) of an answer she didn’t have to answer that she did have. Biden sighed audibly twice, & referred to himself in the 3rd person twice. Overall, both candidates dodged this bullet.

-Both candidates will aim their fire at the tops of each opposing ticket more, & attack each other less. I think this did play out to a great extent, but Biden did a better job of aiming at McCain-not-Palin than Palin did of aiming at Obama-not-Biden.

On that score, MSNBC’s First Read blog has this interesting nugget:

From NBC’s Chuck Todd and Carrie Dann
Looking to the top of the ticket, a full transcript and a quick count shows that the focus of this debate was much more on McCain than on Obama. The VP candidates mentioned John McCain a combined 106 times. Obama? Only 66.

Any strategist on either side of the fence will tell you that that’s not a good thing for John McCain. He needed this debate to be far more about Barack Obama.

-TV viewership will blow Friday night’s debate away. At this writing, the jury’s still out. A Friday night audience vs. a Thursday night audience is typically no contest, though. I expect this to be true.

-This will be more consequential of a debate than past VP debates. Forgive my Clintonesque response, but it depends on the definition of the term “consequential.” If consequential means that the dynamics of the race have fundamentally changed, I would say no. If consequential means that it solidifies already-extant trends, then I think this is true. Again, remains to be seen with polls that won’t reflect the debate’s impact until next week.

-Gwen Ifill will do as good a job -if not better- as Jim Lehrer did last Friday. Frankly, I was a bit too disappointed. Gwen talked with her hands a bit too much, & she at times lacked the persona of what we in the business called a “command anchor,” someone who gives off the impression that they’re competent/in charge/driving the debate. She did probably as well or maybe a bit worse than Jim Lehrer.

Now, let’s turn to the specific points of my advice:

Did Palin avoid any Couric-style meltdowns? Yes, she did. She appeared confident of her answers - even though she rushed her delivery in many of them & appeared to be rattling off a coherent argument that she had memorized. The prep paid off. A side note - Palin really did poorly when Couric asked follow-up questions. This format didn’t allow for many of those. As I warned here two days ago, Democrats who were expecting her to crash & burn were disappointed.. & watching the clip in that link proves I was correct.

Did Palin “stick to broad themes, outline her principles & values, rather than getting bogged down in specifics? I think she did. She was slightly more specific on some matters than I had expected her to be, but this is a reflection of good prep work earlier in the week. One of her high points was when she referred to taking personal responsibility - a value most Americans feel is lacking in Washington & Wall Street these days.

Did Palin readily admit to not knowing the answer to a question, saying “I don’t know?” Well, no, she didn’t - but as I said earlier, there were moments where it was obvious she wasn’t ready for a particular question, & she switched quickly to an answer that she was ready to give.

Did she remind voters whom she’s counting for victory of her working-class roots? She delivered more on this advice than her opponent, quite certainly. It was plain that she was counting heavily on her “folksy-isms” like “doggone it,” “gosh darn,” etc. to help her win the night. She mentioned a soccer game within 30 seconds of the start of the debate. Very effective here.

Did she successfully keep the attack on Obama & not Biden? See above. She didn’t exclusively keep her attacks on Obama - there were many times she directly attacked Biden. But she did appear to be following this advice.

Did she keep the snark that was prevalent in her RNC speech to a minimum? Not as much as I thought she would. Who knows, this may be effective. This strategy certainly mollified the base. Time will tell if independents will respond in the same way.

PALIN’S WORST MOMENT: Rather than recognizing the poignancy of the moment when Biden choked up about raising two sons as a single parent.. her immediate response was to launch into another rapid-fire canned answer.

Now on to Joe:

Did he avoid a “You’re no Jack Kennedy” moment? Absolutely. I think he stepped around all the gender mines that were on that stage. He did not thrust or parry in Palin’s direction - keeping the focus of his attacks on McCain - though Palin left him several opportunities to do so.

Did he avoid being condescending like George H.W. Bush was to Geraldine Ferraro? Yes. I saw a comfortableness that is probably borne of years of experience debating several of Palin’s gender in the Senate.

Did he keep his answers short & sweet? In terms of the time limits of the debate, yes.

Did he remind voters whom he’s counting on for victory of his working-class roots? Yes, but not as well as Palin did. I thought it was a mistake for him to wait to mention his family challenges so late in the debate (the final 3rd).. whereas (see above) Palin hit the ground running with working-class references. Biden held his own.. but Palin won in this particular contest.

Did he effectively attack McCain more than Palin? Yes, far better than Palin did with Obama.

Did he attack Palin’s experience in a way that ultimately backfired? No. Outside of the oblique “bridge to nowhere” reference, he did a good job keeping himself from falling into this trap.

& again, in the interest of time (I have a weekend to enjoy here), I’d like to print the reaction of Andrew Sullivan, which mirrors my thoughts about the debate pretty closely:

Biden didn’t put the boot in; he didn’t come off as sexist; he didn’t make any obvious gaffes. Palin didn’t collapse and pushed through the debate with enough speed not to wobble. But it felt as if she needed the speed in order not to wobble. Her inexperience showed; her tone worked best at first and then began to grate. I don’t think this debate changed the direction of this election campaign, and I think Palin’s performance will buck up base Republicans but actually unnerve some independents.

The campaign’s trajectory remains unaltered. Palin’s inability to answer real questions, her capacity to avoid follow-ups, her slightly manic quality, and her inability to relate to working class voters came across. Biden did not talk too much; he made no sexist gaffes; he didn’t appear to be overweening; he seemed like a nice guy. I think she managed to avoid a tailspin; he reassured. It will stem the GOP collapse a little. But it won’t change the race.

Lots of other debate reactions can be read here.

Your turn!

What do you think?

Post a comment!

Click here to view the embedded video.

Above: part 1, beginning with opening statements.

After the jump, watch the entire thing. & let me know what you think!

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Ladies first.

ADVICE FOR SARAH PALIN

1. More of this:

Click here to view the embedded video.

& less of this:

Click here to view the embedded video.

2. Stick to broad themes. Outline your principles & values, rather than getting bogged down in specifics.

3. Do not be afraid of the phrase “I don’t know.” Viewers will be much more forgiving hearing this than an attempt to bluff your way out of a question.

4. Remind the voters whom you are counting on for victory of your working class roots.

5. Keep your attacks focused on the top of the opposing ticket rather than the person who’s sharing the stage with you.

6. While attacking the Democratic nominee is necessary, do not attempt to approach 50% of the snarkiness & sarcasm you put on display here:

Click here to view the embedded video.

ADVICE FOR JOE BIDEN

1. Don’t do this:

Click here to view the embedded video.

2. Don’t do this:

Click here to view the embedded video.

3. Do more of this:

Click here to view the embedded video.

4. Remind the voters whom you are counting on for victory of your working class roots.

5. Keep your attacks focused on the top of the opposing ticket rather than the person who’s sharing the stage with you.

6. While attacking the Republican nominee is necessary, realize that the more you attack your VP-opponent’s experience, the better she will look in the eyes of viewers/voters.

.

MY PREDICTIONS:

-Palin will do far better than expected.

-Biden will do far better than expected.

-Both candidates only have about a 25% chance of committing a self-inflicted wound.

-Both candidates will aim their fire at the tops of each opposing ticket more, & attack each other less.

-TV viewership will blow Friday night’s debate away.

-This will be more consequential of a debate than past VP debates.

-Gwen Ifill will do as good a job -if not better- as Jim Lehrer did last Friday.

Now it’s your turn.

What advice would you give them?

Post a comment now!

All views are welcome.

An ad from the 1968 presidential campaign of Hubert Humphrey (D).

As you can see, Sarah Palin have more in common than the fact that they together are the veep candidates with the thinnest resumes of the last 75 years; their competence was also thrown into question by the opposition.

By the way, in case you didn’t know, Agnew resigned in 1973.

Earlier on Vote08: Comparing Sarah Palin & Dan Quayle

.

TODAY’S PALIN NEWS

NEW YORK (AP) - Republican vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin is banning reporters from her first meetings with world leaders, allowing access only to photographers and a television crew.
Palin plans to meet Afghan President Hamid Karzai and Colombian President Alvaro Uribe in New York on Tuesday.
The TV producer, print and wire reporters in the press pool that follows the Alaska governor were told at the start of the day they would not be admitted with the photographers and camera crew when they are taken in to photograph the meetings.
At least two news organizations, including The Associated Press, objected and were told that the decision had already been made and was not subject to discussion.
…

Hillary Clinton, interviewed on CBS’s “The Early Show,” was asked what she thought about Republican Sarah Palin’s vice presidential candidacy. She said she thought any woman is going to face certain issues and questions but that “the bottom line is who is on top of the ticket.”

…

WASHINGTON (AP) - The hunt for the hacker who broke into Republican vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin’s personal e-mail account is shaping up to be a remarkably simple investigation, by the standards of major cybersecurity whodunits.
U.S. investigators figure the hacker claimed responsibility in a detailed accounting that included his own personal e-mail address and that he tried to cover his trail using a U.S. Internet anonymity service that has been surprisingly cooperative with the FBI in efforts to peel away that anonymity.
In what may be a significant break in the case, the FBI searched the residence of the son of a Democratic state lawmaker in Tennessee over the weekend looking for evidence linking the young man to the break-in, two law enforcement officials told The Associated Press.
David Kernell has not returned repeated phone calls or e-mails from the AP since last week. His father, Mike Kernell, is a state representative from Memphis.
David Kernell is 20 and is an economics major at the University of Tennessee in Knoxville.

UPDATE: Kernell’s lawyer has released a statement on the case.

UPDATE#2: CHATTANOOGA, Tenn. (AP) - A federal grand jury in Chattanooga ended its Tuesday meeting without indicting a Tennessee lawmaker’s son in an investigation of someone hacking Republican vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin’s personal e-mail.
Investigators last week searched 20-year-old David Kernell’s apartment in Knoxville, where he is a student at the University of Tennessee, but no charges have been filed. Kernell’s father is Democratic state Rep. Michael Kernell.
Justice Department spokeswoman Laura Sweeney declined comment about the grand jury but said the “government’s inquiry into this matter is ongoing.”
A Maryville attorney and three young adults who arrived early Tuesday to go behind closed doors with the grand jury in Chattanooga refused to give their names and afterward were secretly escorted out a back door at the courthouse.
Kernell and his father have not returned repeated phone calls from the AP since last week.

FURTHER READING: Read an account of Palin’s record as mayor of Wasilla, Alaska.

]]> http://vote08.freedomblogging.com/2008/09/23/no-laughing-matter/3677/feed/ http://vote08.freedomblogging.com/2008/09/03/rnc-roundup-the-irony-of-joe-lieberman/2720/ http://vote08.freedomblogging.com/2008/09/03/rnc-roundup-the-irony-of-joe-lieberman/2720/#comments Wed, 03 Sep 2008 13:32:22 +0000 Dan Lehr http://vote08.freedomblogging.com/2008/09/03/rnc-roundup-the-irony-of-joe-lieberman/

Do you know how close this man came to becoming the Republican nominee for Vice President of the United States?

It’s been widely reported this week that rather than Sarah Palin, Joe Lieberman, Democratic Vice-Presidential candidate in 2000, who has since declared himself an Independent, was John McCain’s top choice for a running mate this year:

For weeks, advisers close to the campaign said, McCain had wanted to name as his running mate his good friend Senator Joseph Lieberman of Connecticut, the Democrat turned independent. But by the end of last weekend, the outrage from Christian conservatives over the possibility that McCain would fill out the Republican ticket with Lieberman, a supporter of abortion rights, had become too intense to be ignored.

…

it was not until the last few weeks that McCain winnowed his list to five or six finalists. They included, a McCain adviser said, Pawlenty, Romney, Lieberman, Palin and Tom Ridge, the former governor of Pennsylvania who also supports abortion rights. Palin, unlike the others, was barely mentioned in news media speculation.

The finalists, including Palin, were vetted, a campaign adviser said, and McCain then asked his inner circle — Salter, Rick Davis, Steve Schmidt and Charlie Black — to provide him with assessments of each. “He said, ‘Give me plusses and minuses on each of these people,’ ” Black said.

One of McCain’s closest friends, Senator Lindsey Graham, Republican of South Carolina, weighed in as well, pushing so hard for Lieberman — McCain, Graham and Lieberman are longtime traveling companions — that he vexed some of the other advisers. Others in the inner circle favored Pawlenty or Romney. Palin had no strong advocates in the group, an outside adviser said, but she had no detractors, either.

Despite being McCain’s top choice, if he were to pick Lieberman you would likely to be watching the convention this week through your fingers. There would have been a bloody floor fight fighting the choice, mainly because other than foreign policy issues, Senator Joe Lieberman votes with Democrats most of the time.

So consider that as you watch his speech (which, for some strange reason, followed the vastly superior orator Fred Thompson, making it ever-so-anticlimactic):

Click here to view the embedded video.

With what I spelled out above, it makes these lines from the speech particularly ironic:

“And dear friends, I am here tonight here because John McCain’s whole life testifies to a great truth: Being a Democrat or a Republican is important.

But it is nowhere near as important as being an American.

…

It shouldn’t take a natural disaster to teach us that the American people don’t care much if you have an “R” or a “D” after your name.

What they care about is, are we solving the problems that they’re against every day?

The crowd applauded - but if they weren’t so concerned about that “D” voting record, they would have embraced Lieberman as a chance to prove one’s post-partisan mettle.

I’m not saying choosing Lieberman would have been the right choice; for one thing, he’s already lost on a presidential ticket .. something the notoriously superstitious McCain did well to avoid repeating. & also, his delivery style? Not one that’s gonna win the masses over. Seriously.

But it’s all interesting, no?

What do you think?

 Mike Murphy advised Senator McCain’s great 2000 primary campaign until his candidate met his Waterloo in South Carolina. He declined an invitation to be a part of McCain’s campaign this year, & that’s good for me, because I believe what he says & how he sees the race is from a perspective that has McCain’s best interests at heart.

What he said yesterday on Meet the Press comes as close as it can to my reading of the Palin pick:

MR. BROKAW: Mike, you know McCain well. He’s a rogue and a gambler. He’s more than double down on this call, though.

MR. MIKE MURPHY: Yeah. He’s not afraid of a big bet. I mean, he’s a paradigm breaker, that’s who he is. I think the McCain campaign would tell you what they’re trying to do here is make it very clear their campaign is about change in Washington and he picked a rootin’ tootin’ maverick corruption fighter who has a stellar record doing exactly that in Alaska where there’s some corruption that needs to be fighting. I think the question is what is the price they will pay for this pick? What it says about McCain is he’s definitely a maverick. That’s a big plus. It also puts the experience issue, where McCain had been getting some traction, in a much weaker position. It’s hard for them to defend her on experience.

 Finally, it strikes me as a base pick. She is going to crush in this room, in this hall, when the convention gets going–should it, with the hurricane. She’s going to be a star inside the Republican Party. But in the tough business of practical politics you don’t care, really, how happy your voters are, you care about how many voters you’re going to get. And the question is what new voters–from my point of view, anyway–will she bring to help McCain win in a tough year? Is this the year for a base pick or is it the year for a more of a ticket splitter pick? So in one way he focused his message on reform, there’s no doubt now she’s really accomplished that and she has great charisma to carry that message. But what about the side cost of this as far as questioning his decision making process and experience? Ultimately, I’m not sure a vice president is as important as we all make it. But it does say a lot about the guy. Balance sheet: strong reformer now, but the–on the experience issue is he paying a heavy price for that and does he get any new votes for this or just reinforce the votes he already has?

…

MR. BROKAW: How unsettled were the Republicans by Obama’s speech on Thursday night in Denver?

MR. MURPHY: I think pretty unsettled. Kind of the officer class of the Republican Party took it very, very seriously and said that was a very–and I believed it, too–a smart speech that put him into all kinds of places he needs to be to win the election, a lot of senators messaging. So I think that the Republican Party, I think that the McCain campaign wanted a change-up. The question is that I keep coming back with, you know, I don’t believe the puma theory. I don’t believe that pro-choice Democratic Primary voters are going to switch parties to the Republican to vote for a pro-life running mate who’s a Christian conservative. I just can’t see it. So in the kind of blue-collar cultural conservative places, I think it will help McCain, but I think he’s got most of that vote. A lot of it’s a cultural protest vote to Obama and his liberalism.

The question is in the white, independent kind of wine and cheesier world, will she help or will she be a problem? And I, I agree with, with David, on part of it I can see her helping. Other parts, I–Oakland County, Michigan’s the perfect example. I saw a poll in July where McCain was losing it by 11 points. Can’t win Michigan with those numbers. He’s got to bring Oakland County back. In the blue collar areas she’ll help. In the more upscale, independent areas, her social positions are going to be a big problem, she’s not going to help. So it’s a balance and we’re going, we’re going to have to see how she plays. And if she, with her charisma and her corruption fighting can move the focus off I think her social positions. If the Obama campaign can trap her there, I think she’s going to be an anchor. If she can be a reformer with McCain and get that stuff out of the main picture, she could help.

…

MR. BROKAW: Mike, as you heard, I asked Governor Pawlenty about creationism vs. evolution. He said they ought to be taught side by side in schools, local school districts should decide. How does that cut with the independents?

MR. MURPHY: It’s trouble. Again, if we get into a social issues debate with those particular swing voters, we’re in big trouble. I believe that McCain cannot win in this environment without ticket splitters, people who vote for him for president but vote Democrat down the ticket. He may need as many as one out of five of his ultimate voters to be a ticket splitter. So the question is in a bad base year for Republicans, if we get caught on pure base issues–I agree, the evangelical vote loves her, but I, to the point I said earlier, I’d rather have lukewarm evangelicals and a whole lot of voters than delighted Goldwater-sized crowds and a completely delighted 45 percent of the vote. So if Sarah Palin the reformer, corruption fighter becomes who she is, she can help. If she gets trapped in the other stuff, I think she’s an anchor. And we don’t know yet how it’s going to play.

…

MR. BROKAW: But did they take experience off the table by choosing Sarah Palin?

MR. MURPHY: I don’t know if they totally took it off the table because president vs. president is still the main event, as opposed to VP vs. VP. But it’s a lot harder. It’s harder for McCain to say what really counts is being ready on day one to walk into the Oval Office when he’s 72 and his vice president may be higher on charisma and lower on experience. I think what you’re going to see here at the convention is less grinding on experience now because a lot of that issue I think is out the window, and more grinding on fiscal stuff. The point Andrea made. You had 25 minutes of promises and two sentences of how he was going to pay for them in that speech. Republicans are going to drill down into that. They’re also going to go after the runaway train of Pelosi and all the pent-up kind of liberalism in the Congress getting ready to rip, plus a Democratic Senate, plus a Democratic president, the one party, one way to go and try to make that kind of a scary consequence of Obama.

…

Mike, final question.

MR. MURPHY: Mm-hmm.

MR. BROKAW: If there is something unexpected in the international arena, will it now cut both ways? The conventional wisdom was it would help John McCain, but with Sarah Palin and no foreign policy experience as his backup, would it also raise questions about whether that ticket is ready for it?

MR. MURPHY: I believe it would. I think she is very strong in charisma, but as a strategic pick, she’s very fragile.

What do you think?

Scenario #1: Annie Oakley & Theodore Roosevelt. This is likely exactly how John McCain himself would like to view his pick & his ticket.

Why it works: Palin has a lifetime membership in the NRA, hunts on a regular basis, has been characterized as a “straight shooter” in fighting corrupt politicians or special interests, much like Theodore Roosevelt, a GOP reformer with whom McCain himself would love to be compared.

Why it doesn’t: McCain is no Roosevelt, & Palin is no Annie Oakley. Roosevelt was known for taking big gambles throughout his life, but not all of those gambles paid off in the way he would have liked. The fact that this pick looks openly like a big gamble may hurt the public perception of McCain’s decision-making ability.

Scenario #2: Walter Mondale & Geraldine Ferraro, 1984.

Why it works: The candidate who becomes the party’s torch-bearer invests in an exciting new up-&-comer of the female persuasion. The pick breaks down a gender barrier.

Why it doesn’t: Mondale was running against an incumbent; McCain’s not. McCain should be glad that he’s not facing an opponent (Reagan) with such a high approval rating. Ferraro had more experience than Palin.

Scenario #3: George Bush & Dan Quayle, 1988

Why it works: Quayle was about as unknown as Palin when George H.W. Bush chose him in 1988; his pick was seen as something that was a) last-minute & b) made to appeal to a certain demographic. Like McCain’s pick of Palin, some conservatives view the pick as pitch-perfect, while other conservatives view it as risky. The age difference isn’t as great, but it’s close. Like Quayle, Palin faces a grizzled Senate veteran in the competing slot on the other side.

Why it doesn’t: Well.. Dan Quayle’s a man. I would also hazard a guess that Palin will do much, much better than he did in the Vice Presidential debates. I would also speculate that the choice of Palin will have a greater effect on the overall race, because of the nature of this election & because her party is going to have to work hard(er) to introduce her to the public.

Scenario #4: Eisenhower-Nixon, 1952

Why it works: Until Reagan, Eisenhower was the oldest living president. McCain would become the oldest living president if elected. I’m sure McCain views himself much as Eisenhower did, as an old soldier more than a professional politician. His pick of Nixon, who at the time was a Congresssional up-&-comer, went well until the scandal that led to one of the most notable political speeches in 20th century politics:

Click here to view the embedded video.

Palin is facing some legal/ethical troubles back in her home state. Might she have a “Checkers” speech in her?

Why it doesn’t: with all due respect to McCain, Eisenhower was considered a greater war hero at the time.. which helped him elevate himself above “the political fray.” Richard Nixon was far more well-known across the country, primarily due to the Alger Hiss affair.

Did I miss something up there with my comparing/contrasting? & are there any other comparisons to be made here, folks? Time for you to weigh in! Post a comment!

Above: President Bush treats Geraldine Ferraro condescendingly on foreign policy in the 1984 vice-presidential debate. 

Click here to view the embedded video.

Above: Democratic Vice-Presidential candidate Lloyd Bentsen wallops Dan Quayle, who just compared himself to Jack Kennedy.

These are the two goalposts for the upcoming debate with Sarah Palin. Biden needs to avoid both examples above to be successful.

Click here to view the embedded video.

Click here to view the embedded video.

It’s Sarah Palin!

DENVER (AP) - McCain source: Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin is his pick for VP.

Holy moley! We called this back on June 23rd! & said it again on July 18th!

“For McCain to have a comparable “WOW” pick to Powell, I’m picking his longshot Veep pick as Alaska Governor Sarah Palin.”

& again, on July 29th!

“My longshot pick: Sarah Palin.”

WHY IT’S A GOOD CHOICE:

-As the governor of Alaska, she’s outspoken about domestic drilling issues.

-The pick would provide discouraged Hillary voters with an outlet.

-She makes the west far more competitive.

WHY IT’S NOT A GOOD CHOICE:

-It dampens the argument that Obama is too young & inexperienced to be president.

-If it’s her, look for the name “Dan Quayle” to be mentioned a lot more often in the coming weeks.

-Her inflection is WAY too high. She needs to get it down farther (gravitas) to be taken seriously. Seriously.

More on her background from the AP:

UNDATED (AP) - Alaska Governor Sarah Palin (PAY’-lihn) is a self-styled “hockey mom” — but she’s also known as a Republican iconoclast who’s battled against the state GOP establishment.
It started in 2004, when Palin was chairwoman of the Alaska Oil and Gas Conservation Commission. Palin exposed Alaska Republican Party Chairman Randy Ruedrich for ethical violations when he was a commissioner.
Then in 2005, Palin teamed up with Eric Croft, a Democratic legislator and gubernatorial candidate, to file an ethics complaint against Governor Frank Murkowski’s longtime aide and then attorney general, Gregg Renkes, who ended up resigning.
During her gubernatorial campaign in 2006, Palin cast herself as a Republican maverick.
Palin was born in 1964. She graduated from the University of Idaho in 1987 with a degree in journalism. She’s worked as a sports reporter for two Anchorage TV stations and has been a businesswoman.
Palin served as chairwoman of the Alaska Oil and Gas Conservation Commission, two terms as mayor of Wasilla and two terms on the city council.
Palin is married, with four children.

UPDATE: The Obama camp responds:

DAYTON, Ohio (AP) - Barack Obama’s campaign is suggesting that Sarah Palin (PAY’-lin) doesn’t have the experience to be vice president.
The Democrats are reacting to John McCain’s choice of the Alaska governor today as his running mate.
In a written statement, a spokeswoman for Obama said McCain would “put the former mayor of a town of 9,000 with zero foreign policy experience a heartbeat away from the presidency.”
The number-three Democrat in the House, Rahm Emanuel, points out that McCain turns 72 years old today — and Emanuel also asks, “is this really the one-heartbeat-away he wants to put in the White House?”
But the selection is being welcomed by evangelicals and other social conservatives who’ve been skeptical of McCain. A conservative GOP strategist says, “Conservatives will be thrilled with this pick.”
And the dean of Liberty University School of Law, Mathew Staver, calls it “an absolutely brilliant choice” that he says will “absolutely energize McCain’s campaign and energize conservatives.”

I really wish I had more time to post more stuff on her, but I’m producing both the 5pm & 5:30pm newscasts today, which makes that hard. I did see her speech, & thought it was pretty good, BUT–

1. As someone who works with news anchors, she needs to work on her delivery big time. It inflected over the top a bit too much.

2. She pronounces it “nu-cu-lar,” instead of “nu-cle-ar.” Sorry, but that drives me bonkers.

I will say this already-exciting race definitely got more fascinating to watch today, no question.

UPDATE: What about her religious faith? Find out more here.

Time for you to weigh in! What do you think of this pick?

After the jump, you can read Palin’s Wikipedia entry.

here’s the entry (in full) from her Wikipedia page:

Sarah Louise Heath Palin (born February 11, 1964) is the current Governor of Alaska, and the Republicanvice presidential candidate for the November 2008 election.^{[citation needed]}

Brought to statewide attention because of her whistleblowing on ethical violations by state Republican Party leaders,^[1] she won election in 2006 by first defeating the incumbent governor in the Republican primary, then a former Democratic Alaskan governor in the general election.

Palin is the second female major party nominee for Vice President and the first Republican (the first was Democrat Geraldine Ferraro in 1984).

Family and personal background

Palin was born in Sandpoint, Idaho, the daughter of Charles and Sally (Sheeran) Heath.^[2] Her family moved to Alaska when she was an infant.^[3] Charles Heath was a popular science teacher and coached track.^[3] The Heaths were avid outdoors enthusiasts; Sarah and her father would sometimes wake at 3 a.m. to hunt moose before school, and the family would regularly run 5k and 10k races.^[3]

Palin was the point guard and captain for the Wasilla High School Warriors, in Wasilla, Alaska, when they won the Alaska small-school basketball championship in 1982; she earned the nickname “Sarah Barracuda” because of her intense play.^[3] She played the championship game despite a stress fracture in her ankle, hitting a critical free throw in the last seconds.^[3] Palin, who was also the head of the school Fellowship of Christian Athletes, would lead the team in prayer before games.^[3]

In 1984, Palin was second-place in the Miss Alaska beauty pageant after winning the Miss Wasilla contest earlier that year, winning a scholarship to help pay her way through college.^[3] In the Wasilla pageant, she played the flute and also won Miss Congeniality.

Palin holds a bachelor’s degree in journalism from the University of Idaho where she also minored in politics.

Her husband, Todd, is a Native Yup’ik Eskimo.^[3] Outside the fishing season, Todd works for BP at an oil field on the North Slope^[4] and is a champion snowmobiler, winning the 2000-mile “Iron Dog” race four times.^[3][3] The Palin family lives in Wasilla, about 40 miles (64 km) north of Anchorage.^[5] The two eloped shortly after Palin graduated college; when they learned they needed witnesses for the civil ceremony, they recruited two residents from the old-age home down the street.

She briefly worked as a sports reporter for local Anchorage television stations while also working as a commercial fisherman with her husband, Todd, her high school sweetheart.^[3] One summer when she was working on Todd’s fishing boat, the boat collided with a tender while she was holding onto the railing; Palin broke several fingers.^[3]

On September 11, 2007, the Palins’ son Track joined the Army. Eighteen years old at the time, he is the eldest of Palin’s five children.^[5] Track now serves in an infantry brigade and will be deployed to Iraq in September. She also has three daughters: Bristol, 17, Willow, 13, and Piper, 7.^[6] On April 18, 2008, Palin gave birth to her second son, Trig Paxson Van Palin, who has Down syndrome.^[7] She returned to the office three days after giving birth.^[8] Palin refused to let the results of prenatal genetic testing change her decision to have the baby. “I’m looking at him right now, and I see perfection,” Palin said. “Yeah, he has an extra chromosome. I keep thinking, in our world, what is normal and what is perfect?”^[8]

Details of Palin’s personal life have contributed to her political image. She hunts, eats moose hamburger, ice fishes, rides snowmobiles, and owns a float plane.^[9][10] Palin holds a lifetime membership with the National Rifle Association. She admits that she used marijuana when it was legal in Alaska, but says that she did not like it.^[11]

Pre-gubernatorial political experience

Palin served two terms on the Wasilla City Council from 1992 to 1996. In 1996, she challenged the incumbent mayor, criticizing wasteful spending and high taxes.^[3] The ex-mayor and sheriff tried to organize a recall campaign, but failed.^[3] Palin kept her campaign promises, reducing her own salary, as well as reducing property taxes 60%.^[3] She ran for reelection against the former mayor in 1999, winning by an even larger margin.^[3][12] Palin was also elected president of the Alaska Conference of Mayors.^[6]

In 2002, Palin made an unsuccessful bid for Lieutenant Governor, coming in second to Loren Leman in a four-way race. After Frank Murkowski resigned from his long-held U.S. Senate seat in mid-term to become governor, Palin interviewed to be his possible successor. Instead, Murkowski appointed his daughter, then-Alaska State Representative Lisa Murkowski.^[3]

Governor Murkowski appointed Palin Ethics Commissioner of the Alaska Oil and Gas Conservation Commission,^[13] where she served from 2003 to 2004 until resigning in protest over what she called the “lack of ethics” of fellow Alaskan Republican leaders, who ignored her whistleblowing complaints of legal violations and conflicts of interest.^[3] After she resigned, she exposed the state Republican party’s chairman, Randy Ruedrich, one of her fellow Oil & Gas commissioners, who was accused of doing work for the party on public time, and supplying a lobbyist with a sensitive e-mail.^[14] Palin filed formal complaints against both Ruedrich and former Alaska Attorney General Gregg Renkes, who both resigned; Ruedrich paid a record $12,000 fine.^[3]

Governorship

Governor Palin visits a wounded soldier in Landstuhl, Germany, July 2007

In 2006, Palin, running on a clean-government campaign, executed an upset victory over then-Gov. Murkowski in the Republican gubernatorial primary.^[3] Despite the lack of support from party leaders and being outspent by her Democratic opponent, she went on to win the general election in November 2006, defeating former Governor Tony Knowles.^[3] Palin said in 2006 that education, public safety, and transportation would be three cornerstones of her administration.^[11]

When elected, Palin became the first woman to be Alaska’s governor, and the youngest governor in Alaskan history at 42 years old upon taking office. Palin was also the first Alaskan governor born after Alaska achieved U.S. statehood. She was also the first Alaskan governor not to be inaugurated in Juneau, instead choosing to hold her inauguration ceremony in Fairbanks. She took office on December 4, 2006.

Highlights of Governor Palin’s tenure include a successful push for an ethics bill, and also shelving pork-barrel projects supported by fellow Republicans. Palin successfully killed the Bridge to Nowhere project that had become a nationwide symbol of wasteful earmark spending.^[8][15] “Alaska needs to be self-sufficient, she says, instead of relying heavily on ‘federal dollars,’ as the state does today.”^[9]

She has challenged the state’s Republican leaders, helping to launch a campaign by Lieutenant Governor Sean Parnell to unseat U.S. Congressman Don Young^[16] and publicly challenging Senator Ted Stevens to come clean about the federal investigation into his financial dealings.^[8] Fred Barnes of The Weekly Standard praised Palin as a “politician of eye-popping integrity” and referred to her rise as “a great (and rare) story of how adherence to principle—especially to transparency and accountability in government—can produce political success.”^[9]

In 2007, Palin had an approval rating often in the 90s.^[9] A poll published by Hays Research on July 28, 2008 showed Palin’s approval rating at 80%.^[17]

Energy policies

Palin’s tenure is noted for her independence from big oil companies, while still promoting resource development.^[9][8] Palin has announced plans to create a new sub-cabinet group of advisors, to address climate change and reduce greenhouse gas emissions within Alaska.^[18]

Shortly after taking office, Palin rescinded an appointment by Murkowski of his former chief of staff Jim Clark to the Alaska Natural Gas Development Authority, one of thirty-five appointments made by Murkowski in the last hour of his administration that she reversed.^[19][20] Clark later pled guilty to conspiring with a defunct oil-field-services company to channel money into Frank Murkowski’s re-election campaign.^[21]

In March 2007, Palin presented the Alaska Gasline Inducement Act (AGIA) as the new legal vehicle for building a natural gas pipeline from the state’s North Slope.^[22] Only one legislator, Representative Ralph Samuels, voted against the measure,^[23] and in June Palin signed it into law.^[24][25] On January 5, 2008, Palin announced that a Canadian company, Transcanada, was the sole AGIA-compliant applicant.^[26][27]

In response to high oil and gas prices, and in response to the resulting state government budget surplus, Palin proposed giving Alaskans $100-a-month energy debit cards. She also proposed providing grants to electrical utilities so that they would reduce customers’ rates.^[28] She subsequently dropped the debit card proposal, and in its place she proposed to send Alaskans $1,200 directly and eliminate the gas tax.^[29][30]

Social issues

Palin is strongly pro-life and belongs to Feminists for Life.^[11] She opposes same-sex marriage, but she has stated that she has gay friends and is receptive to gay and lesbian concerns about discrimination.^[11] While the previous administration did not implement same-sex benefits, Palin complied with a state Supreme Court order and signed them into law.^[31]

She supported a democratic advisory vote from the public on whether there should be a constitutional amendment on the matter.^[32] Alaska was one of the first U.S. states to pass a constitutional ban on gay marriage, in 1998, along with Hawaii.^[33]

Palin’s first veto was used to block legislation that would have barred the state from granting benefits to gay state employees and their partners. In effect, her veto granted State of Alaska benefits to same-sex couples. The veto occurred after Palin consulted with Alaska’s attorney general on the constitutionality of the legislation.^[34]

Matanuska Maid Dairy closure

When the Alaska Creamery Board recommended closing Matanuska Maid Dairy, an unprofitable state-owned business, Palin objected, citing concern for the impact on dairy farmers and the fact that the Dairy had just received $600,000 in state money. When Palin learned that only the Board of Agriculture and Conservation could appoint Creamery Board members, she simply replaced the entire membership of the Board of Agriculture and Conservation.^[9][35] The new board, led by businesswoman Kristan Cole, reversed the decision to close.^[35] The new board approved milk price increases offered by the dairy in an attempt to control fiscal losses, even though milk from Washington was already offered in Alaskan stores at lower prices.^[36] In the end, the dairy was forced to close, and the state tried to sell the assets to pay off its debts but received no bids.^[37][38]

Budget

In the first days of her administration, Palin followed through on a campaign promise to sell the Westwind II jet purchased (on a state government credit account) by the Murkowski administration. The state placed the jet for sale on eBay three times. In August 2007, the jet was sold for $2.7 million.^[39]

Shortly after becoming governor, Palin canceled an 11-mile (18-kilometer) gravel road outside of Juneau to a mine. This reversed a decision made in the closing days or hours of the Murkowski Administration.^[40]

In June 2007, Palin signed into law the largest operating budget in Alaska’s history ($6.6 billion).^[41] At the same time, she used her veto power to make the second-largest cuts of the construction budget in state history. The US$237 million in cuts represented over 300 local projects, and reduced the construction budget to nearly US$1.6 billion.^[42]

Commissioner dismissal

On July 11, 2008, Governor Palin dismissed Walter Monegan as Commissioner of Public Safety and instead offered him a position as executive director of the state Alcoholic Beverage Control Board, which he subsequently turned down.^[43][44] Monegan alleged shortly after his dismissal that it may have been partly due to his reluctance to fire an Alaska State Trooper, Mike Wooten, who had been involved in a divorce and child custody battle with Palin’s sister, Molly McCann.^[45] In 2006, before Palin was governor, Wooten was briefly suspended for ten days for threatening to kill McCann’s (and Palin’s) father, tasering his 11-year-old stepson, and violating game laws. After a union protest, the suspension was reduced to five days.^[46]

Governor Palin asserts that her dismissal of Monegan was unrelated to the fact that he had not fired Wooten, and asserts that Monegan was instead dismissed for not adequately filling state trooper vacancies, and because he “did not turn out to be a team player on budgeting issues.”^[47] Palin acknowledges that a member of her administration, Frank Bailey, did contact the Department of Public Safety regarding Wooten, but both Palin and Bailey say that happened without her knowledge and was unrelated to her dismissal of Monegan.^[47] Bailey was put on leave for two months for acting outside the scope of his authority as the Director of Boards and Commissions.

In response to Palin’s statement that she had nothing to hide, in August 2008 the Alaska Legislature hired Steve Branchflower to investigate Palin and her staff for possible abuse of power surrounding the dismissal, though lawmakers acknowledge that “Monegan and other commissioners serve at will, meaning they can be fired by Palin at any time.”^[48] The investigation is being overseen by Democratic State Senator Hollis French, who says that the Palin administration has been cooperating and thus subpoenas are unnecessary.^[49] The Palin administration itself was the first to release an audiotape of Bailey making inquiries about the status of the Wooten investigation.^[47][50]

Wooten and the police union alleged that the governor had improperly released his employment files in his divorce case. However, McCann’s attorney released a signed waiver from Wooten demonstrating that Wooten had authorized the release of his files through normal discovery procedures.^[51][52]

Your turn! What do you think?

What a drama! I actually think this is more exciting than the Obama speculation.

From the New York Times:

WASHINGTON — Senator John McCain has decided on his running mate, two Republican strategists in contact with Mr. McCain’s campaign said Wednesday. He is expected to reveal his choice at 11 a.m. Friday at a rally at a basketball arena in Dayton, Ohio.

From the AP:

DENVER (AP) - John McCain says he hasn’t decided on a running mate just yet.
The Republican presidential candidate told a Pittsburgh radio station he wouldn’t even talk about which way he is leaning.
In the interview with KDKA NewsRadio on Thursday morning, McCain talked very highly about one of the people considered a strong possibility to be his choice, former Pennsylvania Gov. Tom Ridge. He called Ridge a great American and a dear friend whom he has relied upon for years.

What th—?

So we clearly have two different stories out there.

The most interesting thing to watch has been certain sections of the GOP really, really, really trying hard to convince McCain NOT to pick Joe Lieberman. McCain has said as late as this week that he like Lieberman for the ticket.

Robert Novak says:

“..a McCain-Lieberman ticket would be a disaster for all concerned, and especially for the GOP.”

& the Politico reports that Karl Rove personally called Lieberman:

“Republican strategist Karl Rove called Sen. Joseph I. Lieberman (I-Conn.) late last week and urged him to contact John McCain to withdraw his name from vice presidential consideration, according to three sources familiar with the conversation.

Lieberman dismissed the request, these sources agreed.

Lieberman “laughed at the suggestion and certainly did not call [McCain] on it,” said one source familiar with the details.

“Rove called Lieberman,” recounted a second source. “Lieberman told him he would not make that call.”

Rove did not immediately respond to a request for comment. “

Rove was slippery in how he responded to a direct question on Fox News. Pay close attention to the fact that he does not specifically deny that a call took place, only that Politico got the story wrong:

Click here to view the embedded video.

Lieberman would help McCain win independents & women. But the pick’s a big risk in 2 ways:

1. It would deflate any kind of enthusiasm for McCain in Minnesota next week (& believe me, the amount of enthusiasm for this candidate is already fragile).

2. It might possibly keep a lot of GOP voters home on election day.

One argument that it won’t be Lieberman: McCain has said he’ll make the announcement on Friday, & make campaign stops with his veep choice on Saturday & Sunday. Lieberman is an observant Jew, & thus would refrain from campaigning on Saturday. That makes the veep rollout a little awkward. (UPDATE: He definitely won’t be the nominee - scroll down)

Rove (& many others, in the Rush Limbaugh/Sean Hannity/Fox News/Country club Republican circuit) are pushing hard for Mitt Romney.

This too has its plusses & minuses.

Romney, as a millionaire many times over, wouldn’t help McCain eschew the image of a well-off ticket that’s out of touch with the economic concerns of ordinary Americans.

But he is perceived as having a command of economic issues, or at least more so than McCain.

& his debating skills would likely come close to making the debate with Joe Biden a level playing field.

But so would Mike Huckabee. I’ve been amazed that I’ve not seen his name in the discussions this week - & I admit that my floating of him being the choice has been poo-pooed in certain corners of the newsroom. So I may be totally off base here. But let’s look at his pros & cons, if nothing else for fun:

Huckabee is far closer to “working class,” which helps diminish McCain’s “well-off” vibe.

Again, his debating skills make going up against Biden a fair fight.

Huckabee on the ticket would virtually give much of the South to McCain. Romney did not do well at all in the primaries among southern working class voters. With Huckabee, McCain has a decent shot of getting all the states George Bush did in 2004.

He would have trouble north of the Mason-Dixon line, though, & also with independents who believe that the current administration has been a bit holier-than-thou.

We’ll know within 24 hours. What do you think? Whom should McCain pick? Whom should he avoid at all costs? I’d love to hear what you have to say! Post a comment!

UPDATE: Race 4 2008 has found the reason it won’t be Lieberman:

“The major thing standing in the way of a Lieberman Vice-Presidential pick for McCain is a seemingly small thing - an RNC rule that states that a Vice Presidential nominee must have been a Republican for at least 60 days prior to nomination.

There are only two ways around that rule as far as I know - the first being that Lieberman has already switched his party affiliation a couple months ago secretly without letting anybody know (highly, highly, highly unlikely). The other option would be for the delegates to vote to waive that rule at the RNC — and it’s not hard to imagine how that would go.

Color me skeptical, but I just don’t think John McCain would put the party through that kind of turmoil just to get a liberal Democratic candidate who already failed twice in running for the White House on a Republican ticket.”

Agree.

How is the pick of Joe Biden affecting whom John McCain chooses for veep?

The Politico takes a look:

DENVER — Democrat Barack Obama’s selection of Joe Biden as a running mate is complicating Republican John McCain’s analysis of his prospective vice presidential contenders.

Biden will make his formal debut Wednesday with a primetime address. McCain is expected to announce his pick after Obama accepts his nomination here on Thursday.

Some insiders are pressing McCain to make a strategic selection, one that beefs up his economic strength, enhances his chance to grab a state or amps up the partisan firepower.

“McCain knows Biden well. He knows how good he is as a knife fighter. He’ll take McCain apart,” said one Republican operative.

But a review of the much-rumored McCain shortlist clearly exposes the weaknesses each person on it might bring if matched up against the six-term senator from Delaware.

• The star of former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney seemed to be rising this summer in tandem with voters’ increasing anxiety about the economy.

But a McCain gaffe over how many homes he owns — he told Politico he didn’t know the exact number — would take on new life if multimillionaire Romney became his running mate.

Democrats already have calculated that the two men own a dozen homes between them, valued at a total of about $35 million.

That message could hurt McCain in two ways: It undercuts his argument that Obama is an out-of-touch elitist and would make Romney a poor match to Biden’s middle-class upbringing and common-man appeal on the stump.

• Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty’s strength is youth and executive experience. On television talk shows, he’s also shown a willingness to level attacks against Obama, although they are largely a reiteration of campaign talking points.

But Pawlenty, 48, may seem too young and inexperienced when measured against Biden, 65, who was elected to the U.S. Senate in 1972 — when the governor was just 12 years old.

During his service in the Senate, Biden has become a respected voice on foreign affairs. President Bush called him for advice after the Sept. 11 attacks.

Biden also is a two-time presidential candidate and a skilled sparring partner with years of practice against Republicans in the upper chamber — experiences that have given him a familiarity with partisan debate on the national stage that Pawlenty lacks.

A nationally televised Biden-Pawlenty debate “is unthinkable,” said one Republican insider.

• Former Homeland Security Director Tom Ridge could be a better match to Biden’s national security credentials. Ridge’s service in the Bush administration after the Sept. 11 attacks provided a crash course on terrorism and national security issues.

As a former Pennsylvania governor, he could be a powerful counterweight to Biden’s Catholic upbringing in Scranton, a working-class Keystone State enclave that went heavily for Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton in the primaries but could be up for grabs in November.

Ridge also is capable of throwing stinging political punches and has become a mainstay on the political talk-show circuit.

But there are downsides to a Ridge selection.

He is a supporter of abortion rights, which would aggravate McCain’s already uneasy alliance with his party’s conservative wing.

Ridge has tried to assuage conservatives about his abortion stance by stating that he would defer to McCain’s position calling for overturning the landmark Roe v. Wade ruling establishing abortion rights.

But such a nuanced position would be fertile turf for Biden to try to accomplish two goals: painting Ridge as a flip-flopper and driving a wedge between McCain and many independent and swing women voters on the abortion issue.

Another Ridge weakness is that a consulting firm he created after serving in the Bush administration recently disclosed a large lobbying contract with Albania.

Obama would seize on that contract to undermine McCain’s efforts to position himself as a crusader against the professional advocacy class.

While McCain aides are pressing for a strategic pick, insiders say the independent-minded Arizona senator has approached the decision through the lens of governing: Who would add value to policy debates, and who is best prepared to step into the top spot?

• That approach tends to enhance the credentials of Connecticut Sen. Joseph I. Lieberman, a recently turned independent who has an easy rapport with McCain and who has already run for vice president as a Democrat.

But Lieberman’s long history as a Democrat could make for a bizarre debate with Biden — with the two of them sharing long records supporting labor causes and abortion rights and a host of other issues that would infuriate McCain’s activist base.

In essence, said one insider, a Lieberman pick “means McCain would run a campaign without a core constituency of the Republican Party.”

Phyllis Schlafly, of the conservative Eagle Forum, was more blunt: “I think there would be a walkout on Lieberman at the convention. He’s not a Republican.”

McCain’s rethinking doesn’t mean that the Biden pick doesn’t open some doors.

While Biden enhances Obama’s foreign policy credentials, he doesn’t represent an effort to reach out to moderate voters. Both men are ranked among the Senate’s most liberal members.

Brian Darling, a political analyst at the Heritage Foundation, says McCain doesn’t “need to answer” the Biden pick and could take advantages of the geographic flexibility it suddenly offers him.

“If this election is going to be as close as the polls indicate, Joe Biden doesn’t change the map at all,” said Darling.

Of the four mentioned above, what is my take? If we’re making the pick based on Biden, last place: Lieberman. Won’t happen. I’d bet money on it. This despite being McCain’s #1 choice. Pawlenty’s out too for reasons mentioned above. Ridge is still in the running, but I really don’t think it’ll be him - not with him being for abortion rights. Despite some real electoral trouble winning over independents (absolutely necessary this year), the obvious choice is Romney, number-of-total-houses-be-darned.

Simply as a political junkie, I’m rooting for this choice, because the debate between him & Biden would be one for the ages. The men would slip & fall from all the blood on the floor. Would make the McCain-Obama debates look tame by comparison.

So there you have it: ’s officially rooting for Romney!

What do you think?

p.s. though not mentioned in the article above, remember that I’ve said that Mike Huckabee remains a major dark horse at the moment. Why? The choice of Biden is a signal that Obama will try to rally his base, rather than reach across the aisle. If “them’s the rules,” then Huckabee (who, you’ll remember, won Tennessee) remains the obvious choice.

From a breathless Fox News online story:

“SOURCES: McCAIN MAY ANNOUNCE VP CHOICE BEFORE FRIDAY“

Presumptive Republican presidential nominee John McCain may announce his choice for a running mate earlier than expected, sources told FOX News on Monday.

McCain had previously said he would announce his vice presidential pick on Friday and would appear with that individual at a rally in Dayton, Ohio, following the announcement.  Friday is McCain’s 72nd birthday.

But sources close to McCain’s campaign told FOX News that his decision may come sooner than that — possibly on Thursday, when Barack Obama accepts the Democratic nomination at Invesco field in Denver, Colo.

McCain campaign spokesman Tucker Bounds diminished the news.

“I wouldn’t much weight into reports that there are windows of possibility,” he said.

I would say the chances of McCain announcing his veep pick on Thursday are just slightly better than the chances of me winning the lottery - & you should know that I never play the lottery. It makes far more tactical sense to do it Friday.