Vote '08

Indiana Senator Evan Bayh is on the short-short list for Obama’s Vice President.

Today’s New York Times takes a look at the pros & cons:

“Mr. Bayh’s record points up the risks and rewards for Mr. Obama of adding a running mate from a Republican-leaning state, someone whose votes and credentials could compensate for perceived weaknesses of Mr. Obama but potentially alienate progressive Democrats crucial to Mr. Obama’s success.

But admirers, some of whom are actively promoting Mr. Bayh as a No. 2, say he could complement Mr. Obama in areas like executive experience and economic expertise, while bolstering the image of a generational change. And his earlier allegiance to Mrs. Clinton could help soothe disgruntled Clinton supporters.”

On a purely superficial level, “Obama/Bayh” has a good ring to it (more so than the awfully clunky “Obama/Sibelius.”

We’re still steadfastly sticking with our pick that Obama will choose either a) a name that hasn’t been talked about yet or b) General Colin Powell, or c) both a) & b). 

What do you think?

WASHINGTON (AP) - An organized effort to persuade Barack Obama to make Hillary Clinton his running mate has been shut down.
The two former Clinton staffers who started the group “Vote Both” concede it just isn’t likely to happen. They cite his decision to offer Clinton a prime-time speaking role at the upcoming Democratic convention, as well as other indications from those close to both sides.
The Obama campaign still isn’t commenting on the selection process, and a spokesman says the convention speaking schedule hasn’t been set yet either.
But advisers for both say Clinton is likely to speak on the convention’s second night, which is also 88 years to the day women earned the right to vote.

This shouldn’t be news to loyal Vote08 readers.

Read the statement conceding defeat on the “Vote Both” website here.

..short list for next season’s Dancing with the Stars, that is. (rumor has it, I should say)

Had you goin’ there for a second, didn’t I? Click here to learn more.

On the Democratic side:

Virginia Governor Timothy Kaine is front & center stage.

Read more at ABC News.

Here’s Kaine’s Wikipedia entry.

Here’s what he told reporters earlier today (Tuesday) about the rumors.

What do I think?

I think this is a major head-fake on Obama’s part. My rule for watching the Veepstakes (Democratic side only): If a major name is mentioned, it automatically throws him out of the running. I believe deep down to my core that Obama’s gonna pick a name that has been off the radar.

By the way, that line of thinking keeps Bill Richardson in play, for what it’s worth.

More on Kaine now from MSNBC’s First Read (I’ve added emphasis):

Kaine’s strengths: He helps with the battleground of Virginia; reinforces Obama’s outside the Beltway message (although part of his state happens to be inside the Beltway); also reinforces Obama’s emphasis on faith (he’s a devout Catholic); speaks fluent Spanish (once serving as a missionary in Honduras); and is close to Obama.

Kaine’s weaknesses: He has little name ID across the country; has no national security experience; and it’s debatable how much more support Obama might gain in Virginia with Kaine on the ticket — given that Mark Warner and Jim Webb are also campaigning for him and given that Kaine’s geographic strength in the state is fairly similar to Obama’s. The Obama campaign isn’t one that likes to surprise [Couldn’t disagree more. -Vote08]. Could it be they are sending a signal that Kaine is very likely, and if you don’t speak now Dem special interest groupies, forever hold your peace? [No. -Vote08]

Also, go back to our earlier post about this Zogby poll asking which potential veep would bring more Dems & Independents over to the Obama column. Kaine only brought 8% more likely voters among both Dems & Indies. Compare those numbers to who won the poll at 42%.

Who won? My longshot (& official) veep pick: Colin Powell.

p.s.: It looks like Hillary fans will not be happy.

On the Republican side..

Romney still looks to be the favorite from where I sit — although Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty is also mentioned at the top of the list. Here’s a compare/contrast piece on what each of the two men could bring to the ticket.

Time’s Mark Halperin is playing my Democratic veep-watching game (see above) with the GOP (the ultimate pick will be one off the media radar). Read more about it here.

Today’s Washington Times has an article on how a McCain-Romney ticket would not please evangelical Christians in the slightest.

Read an article giving odds on all of the potential GOP veeps at RealClearPolitics, here.

My longshot pick: Sarah Palin.

But enough from me! What do you, dear reader, think? Let ‘er rip in the comments section!

Hard to believe, isn’t it? 100 days until we pick a new president. & if you thought this year’s been exciting up to this point..

I’d like to give you an opportunity to give me some feedback on the Vote08 blog. What do you like - what don’t you like? What would you like to see more of? Less of? I’d like to make this blog an essential site for you to check on a daily basis by November; what can I do to make that happen? Please let me know in the comments section.

Onward. Here’s the latest Gallup daily tracking poll:

Obama’s enjoying his widest lead yet, but I wouldn’t put too much stock in this. Let’s see where we are a week from now, right before the Olympics begin.

I also want to remind you that this year the polls may be even more inaccurate than past election years, with a higher first-time voter turnout predicted. Those first-timers are not ever surveyed in these polls.

SUNDAY INTERVIEWS:
Click here to watch Obama on Meet the Press yesterday

Click here to watch McCain on This Week yesterday

VEEPSTAKES UPDATE:

Obama said something interestingly cryptic on that Meet the Press interview:

“I’m going to want somebody with integrity; I’m going to want somebody with independence, who’s willing to tell me where he thinks or she thinks I’m wrong; and I’m, I’m going to want somebody who shares a vision of the country where we need to go, that we’ve got to fundamentally change not only our policies, but how our politics works, how business is done in Washington.”

This seems in its language to rule out all Senators, no? But it still makes perfect sense if Obama picks who we predicted he’ll pick…

& the timing? Who knows! More on this from MSNBC’s Chuck Todd:

— Veep Timing: The CW was that neither candidate could name their running mate during the Olympics. But with Obama planning a week vacation sometime in August, now the betting is he’ll either name his running mate just before he leaves for vacation (sort of odd, but it would allow a week’s worth of attention ONLY on the running mate) or he’ll announce just after (meaning, second week of Olympics?). It may be tough to break through the Olympics (especially if something unexpected happens), but if there is one political story that could break through, it would be a VP pick. As for McCain, the backseat driving advisers — those who don’t work for McCain but send him advice through the media — are saying that waiting is still the best bet for the candidate who holds so few timing cards.

& finally, read Mark Halperin of Time Magazine’s take on the “To-Do” lists of both candidates here.

What do you think? & once again, what would you like to see on the Vote08 blog between now & 100 days from now?

Zogby Poll: Obama/Powell Ticket Could Bode Well for Democrats

Survey finds Clinton VP pick favored by nearly half of Dems; Huckabee, Romney viewed as best running mates for McCain

UTICA, New York - As the Presidential candidates ponder potential running mates, a new Zogby International telephone poll shows many voters would be more inclined to vote for Democratic Sen. Barack Obama if he were to select retired four-star general and former Secretary of State Colin Powell as his running-mate.

If Obama were to choose Powell, 42% of likely voters nationwide said it would make them more likely to support the Democratic candidate - as did 42% of Democrats and 43% of political independents. The Zogby International telephone poll of 1,039 likely voters nationwide was conducted July 9-13, 2008, and asked respondents how the selection of certain vice presidential candidates would affect their likelihood to vote for the two leading presidential candidates. It carries a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percentage points.

Why I’m not surprised: Go back & read this Vote08 post from June 11th.

ALSO:

“Powell Hints at an Obama Endorsement” (June 13th)

“Computer Says Ideal VP for Both Dems & GOP is the Same Guy” (July 1st)

“Colin Powell on Barack Obama” (April 10th)

Yes, it’s a long shot, but I’m going to go ahead on the record right here & now & say that Powell is my official prediction for Obama’s Veep. The major hurdle, I think, is Mrs. Powell, who was instrumental in keeping Powell out of the running in 1995. Stay tuned.

Meanwhile.. I’ve long thought Romney is the money-favorite as of right now, & that’s reinforced even with Huckabee’s numbers as outlined below. For McCain to have a comparable “WOW” pick to Powell, I’m picking his longshot Veep pick as Alaska Governor Sarah Palin.

Former Republican rivals Huckabee and Romney could give McCain a boost

Among McCain’s potential vice presidential picks, former Republican nomination challengers Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney earned the strongest support from likely voters overall, as well as from Republicans and political independents. Among likely voters, 27% would be more likely to support McCain with Huckabee on the ticket, and 26% said the same if Romney were selected. A Huckabee pick would cause 13% of likely voters to be less likely to support McCain, while 11% would be less supportive of the presumptive Republican nominee if he were to choose Romney as his running mate. Among Republicans, 40% would be more likely to support a McCain/Huckabee ticket, while 11% would be less likely - a 29% net positive for the choice of Huckabee. If Romney were to be chosen, 41% of Republicans would be more inclined to vote for McCain, compared to 8% who would be less likely, for a net positive of 33%. Both fare well among political independents, with a 15% net positive for Huckabee and a 17% net positive for Romney if chosen as a running mate by McCain.

Well, this is funny, & I suppose unprecedented. From PC World magazine:

It turns out that the ideal vice presidential candidate for Senator John McCain, a Republican running for president, is the same person as the ideal vice presidential candidate for Senator Barack Obama, a Democrat, according to a sophisticated online survey by Affinnova.

For both presidential candidates, the best running mate is Colin Powell, a former U.S. Army general and former secretary of state under President George Bush, according to the survey, which was powered by an Affinnova algorithm it calls evolutionary optimization.

“We never imagined that the same candidate would show up for both parties,” said Steve Lamoureaux, Affinnova’s chief innovation officer.

Powell hasn’t publicly expressed an interest in running for vice president. McCain and Obama have both begun their searches for running mates.

Powell’s links to the current Iraq war didn’t seem to bother survey respondents, said Kevin Karty, vice president of analytics at Affinnova. Powell, in early 2003, argued for the war before the United Nations Security Council, but since he has left the Bush administration, he’s criticized its handling of the war.

“There might be an indication that people are willing to give him a pass [on Iraq],” Karty said. “He seems to be an extremely credible figure … and he’s trustworthy.”

…

Among Obama supporters, Powell was the top pick for vice president by a wide margin, Lamoureaux said. Behind Powell were former Vice President Al Gore and former House Majority Leader Dick Gephardt, who tied for second, followed by Senator Hillary Clinton and former Senator John Edwards. Affinnova was a bit surprised by Gephardt’s strong showing; the Missouri Democrat has been out of public office for three years.

Powell had a slight lead among McCain supporters, with current Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney tied for second. Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani came in fifth.

MORE: The Hotline reports today that Obama met with Powell last month.

What do you think? Is having “Powell” be the 2nd name on the ticket - any ticket - enough to sway your vote? Post a comment & let us know!

Also on the veepstakes front, Adam Nagourney of the New York Times has an article on the tricky timing associated with a) the Olympics & b) the back-to-back conventions this year, & provides this chart of past picks in relation to the party conventions:

The article is some interesting reading, & also provides this example of a liberal bias in Adam Nagourney:

“Of course, Mr. Obama has certainly broken some rules and assumptions in running his campaign this year. Would it necessarily be a bad thing for him to announce his choice during the conventions? If any candidate can hold its own against the Olympics, it may be Mr. Obama. “

As a friend points out, “Heck, maybe he could compete in the Olympics too!”

But what about holding a veepstakes Olympics? Track & field events, or maybe swimming? Best man or woman wins? That’s a new kind of politics, right?

I get asked this question quite a bit: when are the vice presidential candidates going to be announced?

Here’s Marc Ambinder on the timing & where the campaigns are now in the process:

Both presidential campaigns are doing a very good job of keeping the progress of their vice presidential searches a secret. With respect to the most obvious question: who’s on the short lists? — answers won’t be forthcoming for a while. Here’s what I do know:

(1) Timing: the McCain campaign is looking at an early August date to reveal the choice; the Obama campaign is looking at early or mid-August; both campaigns are aware that the Olympics begins on August 8.

(2) Vetting – having spoken with aides and advisers to folks I’m guessing will be on the short lists, neither candidate seems to be at the point where they’ve begun to formally vet a smaller selection of potential nominees. In general, only a handful of VP hopefuls on both sides are asked to submit to interviews with lawyers, to relinquish their medical records and tax returns, to alert the vetting teams to any potential scandal lurking in their pasts. It does not seem as if the major short list suspects have yet been contacted by the search teams.

(3) Winnowing – My best guess is that both candidates are in the stage where they’re reviewing open source political and personal data for any number of potential candidates and are in the process of figuring out whom they want their vice presidential search teams to approach.

The Olympics angle makes sense.. don’t forget they start 8/8/08. It makes more sense to rule the news cycle outside of that big event.. & doesn’t make as much sense to wait until afterward (but don’t rule it out). So maybe we’ll hear something before then.

What I’m still curious about is which candidate wants to go first, which wants to go last, & which one is waiting for the other to make his move.

What do you think?

Meet Sarah Palin, Alaska’s current Governor.

There is a movement afoot to have her on John McCain’s ticket. Check out what two Vote08 commenters have to say:

“4bob” quotes another comment from some other blog somewhere, addressing McCain:

First and foremost, Sarah Palin shares your values. She killed the bridge to nowhere. Need we say more?

As for the politics, Sarah Palin transcends geography. Her constituency, like yours, goes beyond state lines.

She will get your ticket access to voters all over the country based on who she is and what she stands for. Because she’s young, a woman, a mother with young kids, she will grab media attention more than any other potential candidate.

Gov. Palin also has a son in the active duty military. You have very wisely taken your son’s service in Iraq off the table as a campaign talking point. That is and should be respected. But others can talk about it and reflect on what it means.

A McCain-Palin administration would be the first in memory which has family members in uniform during wartime from both the President and Vice President. That would be a powerful statement as to the importance of national service, especially in uniform.

Most importantly, any Vice President should be ready to step up and serve in the event she is needed. Frankly, who is really ever ready? Gov. Palin is as ready as anybody, she is a quick learner, and in her public career has exhibited the courage and decisiveness needed for a great leader.

Godspeed to you in your campaign and in making this important decision.”

& “Ted” writes

“Mac Pick Palin Veep BEFORE Hil Campaigns w/Obama!

In addition to her overwhelming attraction on the oil/energy issue and the female/disaffected Hillary voters, her human interest story will generate millions and millions of dollars worth of publicity and media coverage — essentially free to the McCain campaign — more than offsetting Obama’s reported money advantage.”

Both of these comments show astuteness & there is definitely an advantage.

For one, Palin was named (by Alaska magazine, but still, what an honor) “America’s Hottest Governor:”

One (minor) issue: she just gave birth to a boy whom she & her husband named “Trig.” Trig?

The Politico looks at three women, including Palin, who McCain might pick for the ticket. In my view, Palin is by far the best candidate if these are the 3 choices.

Here’s Sarah Palin’s official website.

Here’s a blog dedicated to getting Palin on the GOP ticket. The blogger’s latest post on the Politico article linked above is worth quoting here as he counters the arguments against Palin on the ticket quite deftly:

1. She is “too unkown and inexperienced”.
This argument could be made for almost any potential VP candidate. I don’t hear anyone complaining about Charlie Crist’s lack of experience, despite the fact that he and Palin were both elected in 2006. In fact, Palin was elected to her first office (city council) in 1988, four years before Crist’s first election as a State Senator in 1992. Furthermore, I doubt that the average man on the street knows the names Tim Pawlenty, Bobby Jindal, and Tom Ridge. Hence, this criticism is totally irrelevant.

2. “She is not only based far from the continental 48 — and in a state with just three electoral votes that should already be in the bag for the GOP”.
The Vice Presidency is about leadership, not geography, and this argument is an insult to every American who lives in a small state. However, I would also point out that Alaska could become a swing state this year, and Obama is also targeting other Northwestern red states. Please read my recent column, “The Geographic Argument for Palin“, for a detailed description of why the current electoral map requires John McCain to select a Northern (and preferably Northwestern) running mate.

3. “No foreign policy credentials or experience.”
Again, this is a blatant example of a double standard being applied to Palin. Gov. Palin has the same level of foreign policy gravitas as almost every other Governor. Tim Pawlenty, Charlie Crist, Bobby Jindal, Mitt Romney, Mark Sanford, and Mike Huckabee are all lacking in the foreign policy department, and no one is criticizing them for it. John McCain has foreign policy gravitas spilling out his ears, and it is not what he needs in a running mate. However, as this election will likely be won or lost at the gas pump, he does need someone with gravitas on oil and gas issues. [my emphasis added - Vote08] Gov. Palin, being from Alaska, is one of the country’s leading voices on such issues, a mantle which no other governor can claim.

McCain definitely needs a “WOW” kind of a pick, & in many respects Palin would fit the bill. In my view her age - 42 - is the biggest drawback, in the same way Louisiana’s Bobby Jindal’s (36) is.

What do you think?

From the Chicago Tribune:

CHICAGO - Barack Obama plans to meet with the nation’s Democratic governors in a show of party unity after a bruising primary. Officially, the meeting Friday in Chicago is supposed to be a discussion of the economy. Obama will chat with the governors about the impact of President Bush’s economic policies. But another goal is to demonstrate that Democratic leaders are enthusiastic about Obama as their presidential candidate. The governors of some key states, such as Pennsylvania and Ohio, backed Hillary Rodham Clinton in the Democratic primary.

NewsChannel 9’s John Pless has confirmed with Lydia Lenker, Tennessee Governor Phil Bredesen’s spokeswoman, that the governor “flew out of Chattanooga to Chicago” last night to be a part of this meeting. Bredesen arrived back in Chattanooga this morning.

Read our thoughts on the pros & cons of Bredesen on the ticket here.Read what Phil Bredesen said when NewsChannel 9 directly asked him the veep question here.

UPDATE: Bredesen tells the Kingsport Times-News that he thinks Obama is “not that competitive” in Tennessee come November:

“I think that unless it gets closer than it is today we’re not going to see an awful lot of the presidential campaign.”

UPDATE #2: [we’re google-newsing the words “Obama” & “Bredesen” to get more details about the Chicago meeting] The Southern Political Report says in an article that appeared earlier this week:

“…on the national level, there is some talk that Barack Obama might choose Bredesen as his running mate. Obama doesn’t “owe” Bredesen, who endorsed him the day after Obama had enough delegate votes to declare victory, but Bredesen’s success dealing with thorny fiscal problems might help Obama allay fears that he is too liberal. There is also talk that a President Obama might put Bredesen in his cabinet, most likely as Secretary of Health and Human Services, a post where the governor’s experience both in government and the private sectors would be valuable.”

To us, HHS Secretary makes a lot more sense than Veep for Bredesen.

UPDATE #3: MSNBC’s First Read blog lists the governors in attendance:

“The 16 governors – there are 28 Democratic governors nationwide – hail from blue states, red states and swing states. In attendance were Dave Freudenthal (WY), John Baldacci (ME), David Paterson (NY), Joe Manchin, III (WV), Ted Strickland (OH), Kathleen Sebelius (KS), Edward Rendell (PA), Janet Napolitano (AZ), Jim Doyle (WS), Jennifer Granholm (MI), Bill Richardson (NM), Martin O’Malley (MD), Christine Gregoire (WA), Jon Corzine (NJ), Mike Easley (NC) and Ted Kulongoski (OR). “

June 18 (Bloomberg) — Former Republican presidential candidate Mike Huckabee warned members of his party that any attempt to undermine presumptive Democratic nominee Barack Obama by “demonizing” him would backfire.

“The Republicans will make a fundamental, if not fatal mistake, if they seek to win the election by demonizing Barrack Obama,” Huckabee told reporters in Tokyo. “Don’t underestimate the extraordinary, substantive moment that Barack Obama’s nomination represents in our country.”

Huckabee, 52, dropped out of the Republican nomination race on March 4, paving the way for presumptive nominee Arizona Senator John McCain. Huckabee is considered a potential choice for McCain’s running mate.

“The truth is that the vice presidency seems to be a job nobody wants and nobody ever turns down,” said Huckabee, who is visiting university campuses and meeting business groups in Japan. “I’m not seeking it, and that’s the truth.”

Huckabee said comments he made on NBC’s “Meet the Press” program last month, in which he praised McCain, were misinterpreted as a desire to become vice president.

Whom McCain chooses for the position should depend on his strategy to defeat Obama, he said.

If McCain, 71, believes he should challenge Obama in states such as New York and New Jersey “then I probably wouldn’t be chosen for the ticket,” Huckabee said. If McCain wants to strengthen his support in the South “then frankly, if not me, a person with a similar background to me makes sense,” he said.

Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty,

former Ohio congressman and Bush administration budget director Rob Portman,

Utah Governor Jon Huntsman

& onetime rival candidate Mitt Romney are all expected to be on McCain’s list of potential vice presidents.

Neither Obama’s race nor McCain’s age will be a deciding factor in the election, he said. U.S. economic woes will be the top priority for voters in November, Huckabee said. A recent surge in gasoline prices is proof the U.S. should increase its energy independence.

“It’s affecting the capacity of people to put food on their tables,” he said.

Is Tennessee primary winner Mike Huckabee right about this? Or is “demonization” the only way the GOP will win the White House this year? Post a comment with your thoughts!

WASHINGTON (AP) - Former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson says he’s not interested in being the GOP vice presidential candidate.
Thompson spoke on ABC’s “This Week” on Sunday. Thompson says the presumptive Republican nominee, U.S. Sen. John McCain of Arizona, hasn’t offered him the job. But, Thompson says, he’s not interested in the position.
Thompson was one of two Republicans on the show discussing the vice presidency.

More on the story here.

Oh, & by the way - we predicted this two months ago.

LITTLE ROCK, Ark. (AP) - Mike Huckabee is bringing his political expertise to Fox News Channel.
The former Republican governor of Arkansas who ran for president this year will be a political commentator.
Bill Shine, the senior vice president of programming for FNC, calls Huckabee “a great addition” to the cable network’s election coverage.
In a statement released by his daughter, Huckabee says he hopes to bring a “unique perspective from inside the dragon’s belly,” and to try to speak for millions of Americans who feel their voices are not being heard.
Huckabee is an ordained Baptist preacher who’s been mentioned as a potential running mate for John McCain. Huckabee has formed a political action committee to raise money for McCain and other Republicans.

Let’s try to read the tea leaves. I see one of two things happening here for the winner of the Tennessee GOP primary:

1. He’s already been told that he’s out of the running for vice president, & thus has been encouraged to pursue other interests.

2. This is all an elaborate head fake to throw the mainstream media off the Vice Presidential hunt.

We tend to lean toward option 1, but who knows?

What do you think?

You can go into greater detail here & here. We’re going to speculate with a brief “yep/nope” on each candidate here… & if you click “read the rest of this entry” at the bottom of this post, we’ll give you the name of the person who we think would make the candidate’s best, most “audacious” pick.. a pick that might possibly blow your mind (how’s that for a tease?).

I also want to get on the record here & now as saying that judging by the way he’s run his campaign up to this point, I’m going to go ahead & predict that none of the names being bandied about right now will be the eventual pick. (Which keeps our “after-the-jump” pick very alive).

Which past model does Obama need to follow?

Less this:

& more this:

Cheney helped fill in the blanks for then-governor Bush. It made a lot of voters feel a lot more comfortable in voting for him. Clinton’s pick of Gore, not so much.. it was meant as a message of change, mainly generational. Obama already represents a lot of change in his own right. He will pick a running mate that helps “fill in the blanks” of doubts that voters now have about him, & that includes people who have been in a position to actually govern as well as having more foreign policy experience.

So let’s travel down VP candidate lane, shall we?

Hillary Clinton: Sorry, Hillary fans, not in a million years. Won’t happen even if Obama has to go through a dozen other candidates to get to her. Obama wants to turn the page in this election; in a lot of ways, she is the page.

Phil Bredesen, Tennessee Governor: I’ve scanned the short & not-so-short lists, & it’s interesting to see that his name hasn’t come up much. That’s actually a plus — again, I believe the person Obama will ultimately pick will not be someone who’s been publicly media-scrutinized in the weeks leading up to the pick. As we said last week, Bredesen helps in this battleground state as a Governor who’s popular among both parties, & someone who has executive & business experience. The reason I’d say he won’t be chosen is that he’s relatively tame on the stump & has little foreign policy experience.

Jim Webb (Virginia Senator): The apparent front runner right now. Webb served as the Secretary of the Navy under Ronald Reagan, but has since become a Democratic firebrand. His background & the fact that he has a son serving in Iraq would some of McCain’s military advantages. But — he’s a bit of a loose cannon. Still, he’s definitely a name to watch.

New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson: the former Presidential candidate earned Clinton emnity when he endorsed Obama. He has plenty of executive experience, plus he held two cabinet posts. Downsides: he’s not a great speaker by a long shot. Plus Richardson’s skin color (he’s Hispanic), in the eyes of the Obama campaign, may possibly represent a little too much change. Nevertheless, he would certainly help bring Hispanics to the ticket.

Delaware Senator Joe Biden: Also a former Presidential candidate, Biden (like Obama) opposed the Iraq war from the start. He would help bring “experience” to the table. Downside: the man loves to hear himself speak, to the point where his foot winds up in his mouth. For the record, I am inclined to discount all sitting or former U.S. Senators for the veep slot. Of course, I could be wrong.

Brian Schweitzer, Governor of Montana: Brings “red-state cred” to the ticket. Gun owner/gun lover. Has spent much time overseas. But .. brings absolutely no electoral votes to the table (Montana has something like 3) & he’s a relative unknown. I’d say it’s more likely than not Obama will pick someone whom we’ve heard of.

Ted Strickland, Governor of Ohio: another “favorite” of the media, especially since he has populist appeal in a state that’s absolutely crucial for victory on either side (he’d also potentially help get votes in neighboring Kentucky/West Virginia). Downside: very little executive experience & absolutely no foreign policy experience.

Evan Bayh, Indiana Senator (& former Governor): He’s a former Clinton supporter, which should add weight to his consideration. He’d help in what’s turning out to be a battleground state (Indiana). But .. he’s got little/no foreign policy experience & also comes off as downright bland. Plus he’s a senator.

Kathleen Sebelius, Kansas Governor: An early & rare female Obama supporter in high office. She’d definitely help with the change theme. But like many other, absolutely no foreign policy experience, & picking her could be the final insult for those who think Hillary belongs on the ticket.

Tom Daschle, former South Dakota senator & Senate Majority Leader: Strike 1: he’s a former senator. Strike 2: he would be all too vulnerable for GOP attacks. Strike 3: heavy campaigning for Obama last week did not help him win the state.

Chuck Hagel, Nebraska Senator (R): Hagel has been a Republican who’s long been critical of the Bush administration. Picking him would represent Obama’s “new kind of politics” theme. However, he has voted consistently for Republican interests, something that would make him hard to swallow among party faithful.

Ret. Gen. Wesley Clark: He’d definitely fill out the foreign policy holes, but take it from us, who saw him campaign in 2004 in Chattanooga - the guy is absolutely flaccid on the stump. Would add little to the ticket.

So.

Whom does that leave?

Are you ready for a pick that makes a lot of sense in a lot of ways that you probably don’t see coming? One that would have the GOP positively quaking in their boots?

Bear with us, & click “read the rest of this entry.”

(more…)

This afternoon NewsChannel 9 got to interview Tennessee Governor Phil Bredesen, who was in town to talk about energy efficiency. We also got to hear his take on a couple of Presidential campaign matters:

ON OBAMA’S GENERAL ELECTION CHANCES IN TENNESSEE: “Can he win Tennessee? Of course he can. Bill Clinton won Tennessee twice. I think it’s very important for the presidential campaigns to pay some attention to the Tennessees & Kentuckys & Missouris of the world; I mean, we’re the bellweather states. I mean, Tennessee has missed voting for the person who became president once since the 1920s, and that was 1960, half a century ago. This is a very good indicator state. [Obama] is behind in the state right now, one thing I acknowledged, and I think our job as Democrats is to get him into position where he’s within shooting distance, you know, that he can get from here to there, & I think you’ll see a lot of attention on the part of the campaign. Tennessee, as is true of a Missouri & an Arkansas, Kentucky, Ohio, they would all be great prizes in the presidential campaign.”

ON WHAT HE’D SAY IF HE WERE OFFERED THE VICE PRESIDENCY: “Well, after I picked myself up off of the floor (laughs). Look, you know, this is not something that I’ve sought. If you just look at what I’ve been doing the past couple of years there’s nothing there. I don’t think anyone in this country can look you in the eye & say “Oh, I wouldn’t talk to him.” Of course you’d talk to him. But it’s not something I’m going after or seeking. I love being governor, I have two more years to go here, & I’m virtually certain that’s what my future holds.”

[Tip for anyone asking somebody about being on the ticket: NEVER ask “do you want to be vice president?” No one will ever say yes. I made sure NewsChannel 9 reporter Amanda Shropshire specifically asked “what would you say if Obama asked you.” You get far more interesting answers that way. Not that his answer really said anything.]

Is Bredesen on the short list? As that rare species, a southern Democratic governor with a statewide approval rating above 50% (& that includes Republicans), I’m sure he is on Obama’s list. Whether it’s a short list or not .. that’s up for debate. One big drawback is he doesn’t “fill in the holes” in terms of Obama’s lack of foreign policy experience. But he certainly brings the executive part into the deal.

What do you think? Does Obama have a chance of winning Tennessee in November? Do you think Bredesen would accept the veep slot if asked? Do you think Obama’s thinking about adding Bredesen to the ticket? Weigh in with a comment!

Former Senator John Edwards has ruled out being Barack Obama’s running mate.
Speaking to reporters in Spain, Edwards says he had the privilege of running on the Democratic ticket in 2004 — and is not interested in repeating the experience.
Edwards says Obama should select someone who genuinely shares his goals and governing style.
The North Carolina Democrat does say he’ll campaign “very hard” to help Obama win the presidency. Edwards says there are a lot of issues they both care deeply about.
Edwards dropped out of the presidential race in late January.

Knew this would happen a long time ago. It’s an unwritten rule of presidential politics: never ever put a person on your ticket if they’ve been on a losing ticket before. It’s also the reason you won’t see Joe Lieberman be McCain’s running mate.

So who will Obama pick? I’m going out on a limb to say that of all the names being bandied about right now, he will choose someone who we haven’t heard yet. We’ll see.

Is Tom Daschle a viable Vice Presidential candidate for Barack Obama?

The New York Times’ David Brooks thinks so:

“Obama will need a vice president who knows the millions of ways that power is exercised and subverted in Washington. He’ll need someone who can be a senior, authoritative presence in a cabinet that may range from Republican Senator Chuck Hagel to the labor leader Andy Stern. He’ll need someone who can supervise his young reformers and build transpartisan coalitions more effectively than Obama has as senator.

Sam Nunn and Tom Daschle seem to fit the bill. Nunn is one of those senior Democrats (like David Boren and Bob Kerrey) who left the Senate lamenting the dumbed-down nature of modern politics. Daschle was more partisan as majority leader, but he is still widely trusted and universally liked. As experienced legislators, both could take Obama’s lofty hopes and translate them into nitty-gritty action.”

I agree with the first paragraph. But I don’t think Tom Daschle will be Obama’s running mate. It seems like he would be too easy of a target from the tried-&-true “liberal” lable from the opposition. He’s a bit mealy-mouthed in his speaking style, & would not necessarily gain votes for Obama in the election. That’s contrary to Brooks’ larger point, I know, but there should be (is?) a better candidate out there who can govern as a good vice president & help get the ticket elected in the first place.

What do you think?

UPDATE: Here’s Hillary Clinton’s South Dakota ad:

John McCain plans to meet with three men this weekend to begin “informal talks” about being Vice President.

After the jump, find out who these three are — & we’ll do a brief discourse on their chances.

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In an article titled “What Does Hillary Want?“, Time’s Karen Tumulty writes:

“What will Clinton’s terms of surrender turn out to be? Her husband, for one, seems to have a pretty clear idea what he thinks she should get as a consolation prize. In Bill Clinton’s view, she has earned nothing short of an offer to be Obama’s running mate, according to some who are close to the former President. Bill “is pushing real hard for this to happen,” says a friend.”

As far as Hillary, though, Tumutly goes on to say:

“Hillary is more opaque about what she might want, divulging little even to those who see and talk to her every day. “It’s as plain as the nose on your face that this whole thing has shifted to a different mode,” says a top Clinton strategist. “But I don’t know what she wants. I don’t know what she’s thinking.”"

&:

“…how much leverage does Clinton have? Certainly more than she did a month ago. Though she is unlikely to catch Obama in delegates, her lopsided victories in Kentucky and West Virginia have helped her narrow his lead in the popular-vote count to a virtual tie. She may even finish the primary season with more votes, if you count those from the disputed primaries in Michigan and Florida. That gives her bragging rights for the No. 2 spot or for other demands. “This is about making her pile of chips bigger so she can use them to bargain with when the voting is done,” says a longtime backer, who also believes she is making a play for a place on the ticket.”

Can a case be made for Hillary Clinton as vice president? Yes. Will it happen? Doubtful. We’d put the chances of it happening at about 10%, which is actually up from what it was pre-West Virginia/Kentucky. But it would undercut Obama’s message of “change” from typical Washington politics. & Bill Clinton has certainly proved what kind of a factor he would be in both a general election campaign & in the White House.

What do you think?

(CNN) – During a speech before the National Rifle Association convention Friday afternoon in Louisville, Kentucky, former Republican presidential candidate Mike Huckabee — who has endorsed presumptive GOP nominee John McCain — joked that an unexpected offstage noise was Democrat Barack Obama looking to avoid a gunman.

“That was Barack Obama, he just tripped off a chair, he’s getting ready to speak,” said the former Arkansas governor, to audience laughter. “Somebody aimed a gun at him and he dove for the floor.”

As the Politico’s Ben Smith notes, “joking about Obama getting shot at is probably not the fast track to veephood.”

MONDAY UPDATE: Huckabee apologizes on Meet the Press:

What do you think?

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NBC Political Guru Chuck Todd makes an interesting case for Mitt Romney being at the bottom of a McCain ticket. More after you click “read the rest of this entry:”

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Condoleezza Rice has reportedly been sending signals that she’s interested in the Vice Presidential nomination for John McCain. (UPDATE, A DAY LATER: She’s denied the report.)

Details, plus pros & cons, after the jump.
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No, Republicans, we haven’t forgotten you, & we’re sorry if you’ve felt “ignored” as of late here — it’s just that all the spotlights continue to be on the Democratic race — trust me, the longer they soak those spotlights up, the better-positioned your candidate will be.

But there are developments happening on the Republican side of the race to the White House. Take Mitt Romney, for example. He’s in the news again!

After the jump, you’ll see a clip of his first interview since he first ’suspended’ his campaign, where he talks about how he’d love for John McCain to put him on the ticket.

& speculates on whether Romney would add lift or drag to John McCain’s trajectory.

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