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Archive for the 'Veepstakes' Category

NEVER VETTED FOR VEEP

November 12th, 2008, 2:29 pm by Dan Lehr

One of McCain’s veepstakes finalists reveals he ended up taking himself out of contention. Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal is just 37, & is frequently mentioned as a way to bring diversity to the GOP ticket in 2012.

From the Fix:

“Jindal was approached by McCain forces to gauge his interest in the vice presidency and told them he was not interested in being vetted due to his desire to continue on with his current job, to which he was elected just one year ago.

While the official reason that Jindal took his name out of contention was his lack of a desire to leave the Louisiana governorship, there was also real trepidation within his political inner circle that Jindal might wind up as the pick — McCain was attracted to his comprehensive health-care knowledge — and be caught up in what they believed to be a less-than-stellar campaign that could pin a loss on Jindal without much ability to change or control the direction of the contest.”

Yes, this is hindsight, but that was ultimately a wise decision.

There’s already a push to make him the nominee, as this YouTube clip demonstrates:

Read the rest of this entry »

JOE BIDEN: OCTOBER 21st

October 21st, 2008, 10:14 am by Dan Lehr

Today’s Episode: Biden warns of a coming international crisis for the next president…Julia Louis-Dreyfuss goes “in the tank” for Biden…whether Biden is a “Mr. August,” “Mr. October” or a “Mr. January…

Read the rest of this entry »

VICE-PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE ANALYSIS

October 3rd, 2008, 9:28 am by Dan Lehr

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How did I think it went? See how much my predictions & advice played out after the jump.

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THE VICE-PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE

October 3rd, 2008, 8:50 am by Dan Lehr

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Above: part 1, beginning with opening statements.

After the jump, watch the entire thing. & let me know what you think!

Read the rest of this entry »

VOTE08′S ADVICE FOR PALIN & BIDEN

October 2nd, 2008, 11:33 am by Dan Lehr

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NO LAUGHING MATTER

September 23rd, 2008, 1:10 pm by Dan Lehr

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An ad from the 1968 presidential campaign of Hubert Humphrey (D).

As you can see, Sarah Palin have more in common than the fact that they together are the veep candidates with the thinnest resumes of the last 75 years; their competence was also thrown into question by the opposition.

By the way, in case you didn’t know, Agnew resigned in 1973.

Earlier on Vote08: Comparing Sarah Palin & Dan Quayle

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TODAY’S PALIN NEWS

NEW YORK (AP) - Republican vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin is banning reporters from her first meetings with world leaders, allowing access only to photographers and a television crew.
Palin plans to meet Afghan President Hamid Karzai and Colombian President Alvaro Uribe in New York on Tuesday.
The TV producer, print and wire reporters in the press pool that follows the Alaska governor were told at the start of the day they would not be admitted with the photographers and camera crew when they are taken in to photograph the meetings.
At least two news organizations, including The Associated Press, objected and were told that the decision had already been made and was not subject to discussion.

Hillary Clinton, interviewed on CBS’s “The Early Show,” was asked what she thought about Republican Sarah Palin’s vice presidential candidacy. She said she thought any woman is going to face certain issues and questions but that “the bottom line is who is on top of the ticket.”

WASHINGTON (AP) - The hunt for the hacker who broke into Republican vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin’s personal e-mail account is shaping up to be a remarkably simple investigation, by the standards of major cybersecurity whodunits.
U.S. investigators figure the hacker claimed responsibility in a detailed accounting that included his own personal e-mail address and that he tried to cover his trail using a U.S. Internet anonymity service that has been surprisingly cooperative with the FBI in efforts to peel away that anonymity.
In what may be a significant break in the case, the FBI searched the residence of the son of a Democratic state lawmaker in Tennessee over the weekend looking for evidence linking the young man to the break-in, two law enforcement officials told The Associated Press.
David Kernell has not returned repeated phone calls or e-mails from the AP since last week. His father, Mike Kernell, is a state representative from Memphis.
David Kernell is 20 and is an economics major at the University of Tennessee in Knoxville.

UPDATE: Kernell’s lawyer has released a statement on the case.

UPDATE#2: CHATTANOOGA, Tenn. (AP) - A federal grand jury in Chattanooga ended its Tuesday meeting without indicting a Tennessee lawmaker’s son in an investigation of someone hacking Republican vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin’s personal e-mail.
Investigators last week searched 20-year-old David Kernell’s apartment in Knoxville, where he is a student at the University of Tennessee, but no charges have been filed. Kernell’s father is Democratic state Rep. Michael Kernell.
Justice Department spokeswoman Laura Sweeney declined comment about the grand jury but said the “government’s inquiry into this matter is ongoing.”
A Maryville attorney and three young adults who arrived early Tuesday to go behind closed doors with the grand jury in Chattanooga refused to give their names and afterward were secretly escorted out a back door at the courthouse.
Kernell and his father have not returned repeated phone calls from the AP since last week.

FURTHER READING: Read an account of Palin’s record as mayor of Wasilla, Alaska.

RNC ROUNDUP: THE IRONY OF JOE LIEBERMAN

September 3rd, 2008, 9:32 am by Dan Lehr

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Do you know how close this man came to becoming the Republican nominee for Vice President of the United States?

It’s been widely reported this week that rather than Sarah Palin, Joe Lieberman, Democratic Vice-Presidential candidate in 2000, who has since declared himself an Independent, was John McCain’s top choice for a running mate this year:

For weeks, advisers close to the campaign said, McCain had wanted to name as his running mate his good friend Senator Joseph Lieberman of Connecticut, the Democrat turned independent. But by the end of last weekend, the outrage from Christian conservatives over the possibility that McCain would fill out the Republican ticket with Lieberman, a supporter of abortion rights, had become too intense to be ignored.

it was not until the last few weeks that McCain winnowed his list to five or six finalists. They included, a McCain adviser said, Pawlenty, Romney, Lieberman, Palin and Tom Ridge, the former governor of Pennsylvania who also supports abortion rights. Palin, unlike the others, was barely mentioned in news media speculation.

The finalists, including Palin, were vetted, a campaign adviser said, and McCain then asked his inner circle — Salter, Rick Davis, Steve Schmidt and Charlie Black — to provide him with assessments of each. “He said, ‘Give me plusses and minuses on each of these people,’ ” Black said.

One of McCain’s closest friends, Senator Lindsey Graham, Republican of South Carolina, weighed in as well, pushing so hard for Lieberman — McCain, Graham and Lieberman are longtime traveling companions — that he vexed some of the other advisers. Others in the inner circle favored Pawlenty or Romney. Palin had no strong advocates in the group, an outside adviser said, but she had no detractors, either.

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Despite being McCain’s top choice, if he were to pick Lieberman you would likely to be watching the convention this week through your fingers. There would have been a bloody floor fight fighting the choice, mainly because other than foreign policy issues, Senator Joe Lieberman votes with Democrats most of the time.

So consider that as you watch his speech (which, for some strange reason, followed the vastly superior orator Fred Thompson, making it ever-so-anticlimactic):

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With what I spelled out above, it makes these lines from the speech particularly ironic:

“And dear friends, I am here tonight here because John McCain’s whole life testifies to a great truth: Being a Democrat or a Republican is important.

But it is nowhere near as important as being an American.

It shouldn’t take a natural disaster to teach us that the American people don’t care much if you have an “R” or a “D” after your name.

What they care about is, are we solving the problems that they’re against every day?

The crowd applauded - but if they weren’t so concerned about that “D” voting record, they would have embraced Lieberman as a chance to prove one’s post-partisan mettle.

I’m not saying choosing Lieberman would have been the right choice; for one thing, he’s already lost on a presidential ticket .. something the notoriously superstitious McCain did well to avoid repeating. & also, his delivery style? Not one that’s gonna win the masses over. Seriously.

But it’s all interesting, no?

_vote08blog1.jpgWhat do you think?

BEST ANALYSIS I’VE YET SEEN ON THE PALIN PICK

September 1st, 2008, 10:19 am by Dan Lehr

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 mike-murphy.jpgMike Murphy advised Senator McCain’s great 2000 primary campaign until his candidate met his Waterloo in South Carolina. He declined an invitation to be a part of McCain’s campaign this year, & that’s good for me, because I believe what he says & how he sees the race is from a perspective that has McCain’s best interests at heart.

What he said yesterday on Meet the Press comes as close as it can to my reading of the Palin pick:

MR. BROKAW: Mike, you know McCain well. He’s a rogue and a gambler. He’s more than double down on this call, though.

MR. MIKE MURPHY: Yeah. He’s not afraid of a big bet. I mean, he’s a paradigm breaker, that’s who he is. I think the McCain campaign would tell you what they’re trying to do here is make it very clear their campaign is about change in Washington and he picked a rootin’ tootin’ maverick corruption fighter who has a stellar record doing exactly that in Alaska where there’s some corruption that needs to be fighting. I think the question is what is the price they will pay for this pick? What it says about McCain is he’s definitely a maverick. That’s a big plus. It also puts the experience issue, where McCain had been getting some traction, in a much weaker position. It’s hard for them to defend her on experience.

 Finally, it strikes me as a base pick. She is going to crush in this room, in this hall, when the convention gets going–should it, with the hurricane. She’s going to be a star inside the Republican Party. But in the tough business of practical politics you don’t care, really, how happy your voters are, you care about how many voters you’re going to get. And the question is what new voters–from my point of view, anyway–will she bring to help McCain win in a tough year? Is this the year for a base pick or is it the year for a more of a ticket splitter pick? So in one way he focused his message on reform, there’s no doubt now she’s really accomplished that and she has great charisma to carry that message. But what about the side cost of this as far as questioning his decision making process and experience? Ultimately, I’m not sure a vice president is as important as we all make it. But it does say a lot about the guy. Balance sheet: strong reformer now, but the–on the experience issue is he paying a heavy price for that and does he get any new votes for this or just reinforce the votes he already has?

MR. BROKAW: How unsettled were the Republicans by Obama’s speech on Thursday night in Denver?

MR. MURPHY: I think pretty unsettled. Kind of the officer class of the Republican Party took it very, very seriously and said that was a very–and I believed it, too–a smart speech that put him into all kinds of places he needs to be to win the election, a lot of senators messaging. So I think that the Republican Party, I think that the McCain campaign wanted a change-up. The question is that I keep coming back with, you know, I don’t believe the puma theory. I don’t believe that pro-choice Democratic Primary voters are going to switch parties to the Republican to vote for a pro-life running mate who’s a Christian conservative. I just can’t see it. So in the kind of blue-collar cultural conservative places, I think it will help McCain, but I think he’s got most of that vote. A lot of it’s a cultural protest vote to Obama and his liberalism.

The question is in the white, independent kind of wine and cheesier world, will she help or will she be a problem? And I, I agree with, with David, on part of it I can see her helping. Other parts, I–Oakland County, Michigan’s the perfect example. I saw a poll in July where McCain was losing it by 11 points. Can’t win Michigan with those numbers. He’s got to bring Oakland County back. In the blue collar areas she’ll help. In the more upscale, independent areas, her social positions are going to be a big problem, she’s not going to help. So it’s a balance and we’re going, we’re going to have to see how she plays. And if she, with her charisma and her corruption fighting can move the focus off I think her social positions. If the Obama campaign can trap her there, I think she’s going to be an anchor. If she can be a reformer with McCain and get that stuff out of the main picture, she could help.

MR. BROKAW: Mike, as you heard, I asked Governor Pawlenty about creationism vs. evolution. He said they ought to be taught side by side in schools, local school districts should decide. How does that cut with the independents?

MR. MURPHY: It’s trouble. Again, if we get into a social issues debate with those particular swing voters, we’re in big trouble. I believe that McCain cannot win in this environment without ticket splitters, people who vote for him for president but vote Democrat down the ticket. He may need as many as one out of five of his ultimate voters to be a ticket splitter. So the question is in a bad base year for Republicans, if we get caught on pure base issues–I agree, the evangelical vote loves her, but I, to the point I said earlier, I’d rather have lukewarm evangelicals and a whole lot of voters than delighted Goldwater-sized crowds and a completely delighted 45 percent of the vote. So if Sarah Palin the reformer, corruption fighter becomes who she is, she can help. If she gets trapped in the other stuff, I think she’s an anchor. And we don’t know yet how it’s going to play.

MR. BROKAW: But did they take experience off the table by choosing Sarah Palin?

MR. MURPHY: I don’t know if they totally took it off the table because president vs. president is still the main event, as opposed to VP vs. VP. But it’s a lot harder. It’s harder for McCain to say what really counts is being ready on day one to walk into the Oval Office when he’s 72 and his vice president may be higher on charisma and lower on experience. I think what you’re going to see here at the convention is less grinding on experience now because a lot of that issue I think is out the window, and more grinding on fiscal stuff. The point Andrea made. You had 25 minutes of promises and two sentences of how he was going to pay for them in that speech. Republicans are going to drill down into that. They’re also going to go after the runaway train of Pelosi and all the pent-up kind of liberalism in the Congress getting ready to rip, plus a Democratic Senate, plus a Democratic president, the one party, one way to go and try to make that kind of a scary consequence of Obama.

Mike, final question.

MR. MURPHY: Mm-hmm.

MR. BROKAW: If there is something unexpected in the international arena, will it now cut both ways? The conventional wisdom was it would help John McCain, but with Sarah Palin and no foreign policy experience as his backup, would it also raise questions about whether that ticket is ready for it?

MR. MURPHY: I believe it would. I think she is very strong in charisma, but as a strategic pick, she’s very fragile.

_vote08blog11.jpgWhat do you think?

VARIOUS VIEWS OF THE PALIN PICK

September 1st, 2008, 9:33 am by Dan Lehr

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Scenario #1: Annie Oakley & Theodore Roosevelt. This is likely exactly how John McCain himself would like to view his pick & his ticket.

Why it works: Palin has a lifetime membership in the NRA, hunts on a regular basis, has been characterized as a “straight shooter” in fighting corrupt politicians or special interests, much like Theodore Roosevelt, a GOP reformer with whom McCain himself would love to be compared.

Why it doesn’t: McCain is no Roosevelt, & Palin is no Annie Oakley. Roosevelt was known for taking big gambles throughout his life, but not all of those gambles paid off in the way he would have liked. The fact that this pick looks openly like a big gamble may hurt the public perception of McCain’s decision-making ability.

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Scenario #2: Walter Mondale & Geraldine Ferraro, 1984.

Why it works: The candidate who becomes the party’s torch-bearer invests in an exciting new up-&-comer of the female persuasion. The pick breaks down a gender barrier.

Why it doesn’t: Mondale was running against an incumbent; McCain’s not. McCain should be glad that he’s not facing an opponent (Reagan) with such a high approval rating. Ferraro had more experience than Palin.

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Scenario #3: George Bush & Dan Quayle, 1988

Why it works: Quayle was about as unknown as Palin when George H.W. Bush chose him in 1988; his pick was seen as something that was a) last-minute & b) made to appeal to a certain demographic. Like McCain’s pick of Palin, some conservatives view the pick as pitch-perfect, while other conservatives view it as risky. The age difference isn’t as great, but it’s close. Like Quayle, Palin faces a grizzled Senate veteran in the competing slot on the other side.

Why it doesn’t: Well.. Dan Quayle’s a man. I would also hazard a guess that Palin will do much, much better than he did in the Vice Presidential debates. I would also speculate that the choice of Palin will have a greater effect on the overall race, because of the nature of this election & because her party is going to have to work hard(er) to introduce her to the public.

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Scenario #4: Eisenhower-Nixon, 1952

Why it works: Until Reagan, Eisenhower was the oldest living president. McCain would become the oldest living president if elected. I’m sure McCain views himself much as Eisenhower did, as an old soldier more than a professional politician. His pick of Nixon, who at the time was a Congresssional up-&-comer, went well until the scandal that led to one of the most notable political speeches in 20th century politics:

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Palin is facing some legal/ethical troubles back in her home state. Might she have a “Checkers” speech in her?

Why it doesn’t: with all due respect to McCain, Eisenhower was considered a greater war hero at the time.. which helped him elevate himself above “the political fray.” Richard Nixon was far more well-known across the country, primarily due to the Alger Hiss affair.

_vote08blog11.jpgDid I miss something up there with my comparing/contrasting? & are there any other comparisons to be made here, folks? Time for you to weigh in! Post a comment!

JOE BIDEN’S BENCHMARKS

September 1st, 2008, 9:16 am by Dan Lehr

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Above: President Bush treats Geraldine Ferraro condescendingly on foreign policy in the 1984 vice-presidential debate. 

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Above: Democratic Vice-Presidential candidate Lloyd Bentsen wallops Dan Quayle, who just compared himself to Jack Kennedy.

These are the two goalposts for the upcoming debate with Sarah Palin. Biden needs to avoid both examples above to be successful.

McCAIN’S PICK: PALIN!

August 29th, 2008, 10:02 am by Dan Lehr

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It’s Sarah Palin!

DENVER (AP) - McCain source: Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin is his pick for VP.

_vote08blog11.jpgHoly moley! We called this back on June 23rd! & said it again on July 18th!

For McCain to have a comparable “WOW” pick to Powell, I’m picking his longshot Veep pick as Alaska Governor Sarah Palin.”

& again, on July 29th!

My longshot pick: Sarah Palin.”

WHY IT’S A GOOD CHOICE:

-As the governor of Alaska, she’s outspoken about domestic drilling issues.

-The pick would provide discouraged Hillary voters with an outlet.

-She makes the west far more competitive.

WHY IT’S NOT A GOOD CHOICE:

-It dampens the argument that Obama is too young & inexperienced to be president.

-If it’s her, look for the name “Dan Quayle” to be mentioned a lot more often in the coming weeks.

-Her inflection is WAY too high. She needs to get it down farther (gravitas) to be taken seriously. Seriously.

More on her background from the AP:

UNDATED (AP) - Alaska Governor Sarah Palin (PAY’-lihn) is a self-styled “hockey mom” — but she’s also known as a Republican iconoclast who’s battled against the state GOP establishment.
It started in 2004, when Palin was chairwoman of the Alaska Oil and Gas Conservation Commission. Palin exposed Alaska Republican Party Chairman Randy Ruedrich for ethical violations when he was a commissioner.
Then in 2005, Palin teamed up with Eric Croft, a Democratic legislator and gubernatorial candidate, to file an ethics complaint against Governor Frank Murkowski’s longtime aide and then attorney general, Gregg Renkes, who ended up resigning.
During her gubernatorial campaign in 2006, Palin cast herself as a Republican maverick.
Palin was born in 1964. She graduated from the University of Idaho in 1987 with a degree in journalism. She’s worked as a sports reporter for two Anchorage TV stations and has been a businesswoman.
Palin served as chairwoman of the Alaska Oil and Gas Conservation Commission, two terms as mayor of Wasilla and two terms on the city council.
Palin is married, with four children.

UPDATE: The Obama camp responds:

DAYTON, Ohio (AP) - Barack Obama’s campaign is suggesting that Sarah Palin (PAY’-lin) doesn’t have the experience to be vice president.
The Democrats are reacting to John McCain’s choice of the Alaska governor today as his running mate.
In a written statement, a spokeswoman for Obama said McCain would “put the former mayor of a town of 9,000 with zero foreign policy experience a heartbeat away from the presidency.”
The number-three Democrat in the House, Rahm Emanuel, points out that McCain turns 72 years old today — and Emanuel also asks, “is this really the one-heartbeat-away he wants to put in the White House?”
But the selection is being welcomed by evangelicals and other social conservatives who’ve been skeptical of McCain. A conservative GOP strategist says, “Conservatives will be thrilled with this pick.”
And the dean of Liberty University School of Law, Mathew Staver, calls it “an absolutely brilliant choice” that he says will “absolutely energize McCain’s campaign and energize conservatives.”

I really wish I had more time to post more stuff on her, but I’m producing both the 5pm & 5:30pm newscasts today, which makes that hard. I did see her speech, & thought it was pretty good, BUT–

1. As someone who works with news anchors, she needs to work on her delivery big time. It inflected over the top a bit too much.

2. She pronounces it “nu-cu-lar,” instead of “nu-cle-ar.” Sorry, but that drives me bonkers.

I will say this already-exciting race definitely got more fascinating to watch today, no question.

UPDATE: What about her religious faith? Find out more here.

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Time for you to weigh in! What do you think of this pick?

After the jump, you can read Palin’s Wikipedia entry.

Read the rest of this entry »

McCAIN HAS CHOSEN OR STILL HASN’T CHOSEN HIS VICE PRESIDENT

August 28th, 2008, 11:29 am by Dan Lehr

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What a drama! I actually think this is more exciting than the Obama speculation.

From the New York Times:

WASHINGTON — Senator John McCain has decided on his running mate, two Republican strategists in contact with Mr. McCain’s campaign said Wednesday. He is expected to reveal his choice at 11 a.m. Friday at a rally at a basketball arena in Dayton, Ohio.

From the AP:

DENVER (AP) - John McCain says he hasn’t decided on a running mate just yet.
The Republican presidential candidate told a Pittsburgh radio station he wouldn’t even talk about which way he is leaning.
In the interview with KDKA NewsRadio on Thursday morning, McCain talked very highly about one of the people considered a strong possibility to be his choice, former Pennsylvania Gov. Tom Ridge. He called Ridge a great American and a dear friend whom he has relied upon for years.

What th—?

So we clearly have two different stories out there.

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The most interesting thing to watch has been certain sections of the GOP really, really, really trying hard to convince McCain NOT to pick Joe Lieberman. McCain has said as late as this week that he like Lieberman for the ticket.

Robert Novak says:

“..a McCain-Lieberman ticket would be a disaster for all concerned, and especially for the GOP.”

& the Politico reports that Karl Rove personally called Lieberman:

“Republican strategist Karl Rove called Sen. Joseph I. Lieberman (I-Conn.) late last week and urged him to contact John McCain to withdraw his name from vice presidential consideration, according to three sources familiar with the conversation.

Lieberman dismissed the request, these sources agreed.

Lieberman “laughed at the suggestion and certainly did not call [McCain] on it,” said one source familiar with the details.

“Rove called Lieberman,” recounted a second source. “Lieberman told him he would not make that call.”

Rove did not immediately respond to a request for comment. “

Rove was slippery in how he responded to a direct question on Fox News. Pay close attention to the fact that he does not specifically deny that a call took place, only that Politico got the story wrong:

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Lieberman would help McCain win independents & women. But the pick’s a big risk in 2 ways:

1. It would deflate any kind of enthusiasm for McCain in Minnesota next week (& believe me, the amount of enthusiasm for this candidate is already fragile).

2. It might possibly keep a lot of GOP voters home on election day.

One argument that it won’t be Lieberman: McCain has said he’ll make the announcement on Friday, & make campaign stops with his veep choice on Saturday & Sunday. Lieberman is an observant Jew, & thus would refrain from campaigning on Saturday. That makes the veep rollout a little awkward. (UPDATE: He definitely won’t be the nominee - scroll down)

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Rove (& many others, in the Rush Limbaugh/Sean Hannity/Fox News/Country club Republican circuit) are pushing hard for Mitt Romney.

This too has its plusses & minuses.

Romney, as a millionaire many times over, wouldn’t help McCain eschew the image of a well-off ticket that’s out of touch with the economic concerns of ordinary Americans.

But he is perceived as having a command of economic issues, or at least more so than McCain.

& his debating skills would likely come close to making the debate with Joe Biden a level playing field.

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But so would Mike Huckabee. I’ve been amazed that I’ve not seen his name in the discussions this week - & I admit that my floating of him being the choice has been poo-pooed in certain corners of the newsroom. So I may be totally off base here. But let’s look at his pros & cons, if nothing else for fun:

Huckabee is far closer to “working class,” which helps diminish McCain’s “well-off” vibe.

Again, his debating skills make going up against Biden a fair fight.

Huckabee on the ticket would virtually give much of the South to McCain. Romney did not do well at all in the primaries among southern working class voters. With Huckabee, McCain has a decent shot of getting all the states George Bush did in 2004.

He would have trouble north of the Mason-Dixon line, though, & also with independents who believe that the current administration has been a bit holier-than-thou.

_vote08blog10.jpgWe’ll know within 24 hours. What do you think? Whom should McCain pick? Whom should he avoid at all costs? I’d love to hear what you have to say! Post a comment!

UPDATE: Race 4 2008 has found the reason it won’t be Lieberman:

“The major thing standing in the way of a Lieberman Vice-Presidential pick for McCain is a seemingly small thing - an RNC rule that states that a Vice Presidential nominee must have been a Republican for at least 60 days prior to nomination.

There are only two ways around that rule as far as I know - the first being that Lieberman has already switched his party affiliation a couple months ago secretly without letting anybody know (highly, highly, highly unlikely). The other option would be for the delegates to vote to waive that rule at the RNC — and it’s not hard to imagine how that would go.

Color me skeptical, but I just don’t think John McCain would put the party through that kind of turmoil just to get a liberal Democratic candidate who already failed twice in running for the White House on a Republican ticket.”

Agree.

 

HOW THE BIDEN PICK’S AFFECTING McCAIN’S VEEP

August 27th, 2008, 1:16 pm by Dan Lehr

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How is the pick of Joe Biden affecting whom John McCain chooses for veep?

The Politico takes a look:

DENVER — Democrat Barack Obama’s selection of Joe Biden as a running mate is complicating Republican John McCain’s analysis of his prospective vice presidential contenders.

Biden will make his formal debut Wednesday with a primetime address. McCain is expected to announce his pick after Obama accepts his nomination here on Thursday.

Some insiders are pressing McCain to make a strategic selection, one that beefs up his economic strength, enhances his chance to grab a state or amps up the partisan firepower.

“McCain knows Biden well. He knows how good he is as a knife fighter. He’ll take McCain apart,” said one Republican operative.

But a review of the much-rumored McCain shortlist clearly exposes the weaknesses each person on it might bring if matched up against the six-term senator from Delaware.

romney1.jpg The star of former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney seemed to be rising this summer in tandem with voters’ increasing anxiety about the economy.

But a McCain gaffe over how many homes he owns — he told Politico he didn’t know the exact number — would take on new life if multimillionaire Romney became his running mate.

Democrats already have calculated that the two men own a dozen homes between them, valued at a total of about $35 million.

That message could hurt McCain in two ways: It undercuts his argument that Obama is an out-of-touch elitist and would make Romney a poor match to Biden’s middle-class upbringing and common-man appeal on the stump.

tim_pawlenty.jpgMinnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty’s strength is youth and executive experience. On television talk shows, he’s also shown a willingness to level attacks against Obama, although they are largely a reiteration of campaign talking points.

But Pawlenty, 48, may seem too young and inexperienced when measured against Biden, 65, who was elected to the U.S. Senate in 1972 — when the governor was just 12 years old.

During his service in the Senate, Biden has become a respected voice on foreign affairs. President Bush called him for advice after the Sept. 11 attacks.

Biden also is a two-time presidential candidate and a skilled sparring partner with years of practice against Republicans in the upper chamber — experiences that have given him a familiarity with partisan debate on the national stage that Pawlenty lacks.

A nationally televised Biden-Pawlenty debate “is unthinkable,” said one Republican insider.

ridge.jpgFormer Homeland Security Director Tom Ridge could be a better match to Biden’s national security credentials. Ridge’s service in the Bush administration after the Sept. 11 attacks provided a crash course on terrorism and national security issues.

As a former Pennsylvania governor, he could be a powerful counterweight to Biden’s Catholic upbringing in Scranton, a working-class Keystone State enclave that went heavily for Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton in the primaries but could be up for grabs in November.

Ridge also is capable of throwing stinging political punches and has become a mainstay on the political talk-show circuit.

But there are downsides to a Ridge selection.

He is a supporter of abortion rights, which would aggravate McCain’s already uneasy alliance with his party’s conservative wing.

Ridge has tried to assuage conservatives about his abortion stance by stating that he would defer to McCain’s position calling for overturning the landmark Roe v. Wade ruling establishing abortion rights.

But such a nuanced position would be fertile turf for Biden to try to accomplish two goals: painting Ridge as a flip-flopper and driving a wedge between McCain and many independent and swing women voters on the abortion issue.

Another Ridge weakness is that a consulting firm he created after serving in the Bush administration recently disclosed a large lobbying contract with Albania.

Obama would seize on that contract to undermine McCain’s efforts to position himself as a crusader against the professional advocacy class.

While McCain aides are pressing for a strategic pick, insiders say the independent-minded Arizona senator has approached the decision through the lens of governing: Who would add value to policy debates, and who is best prepared to step into the top spot?

joe_lieberman.jpgThat approach tends to enhance the credentials of Connecticut Sen. Joseph I. Lieberman, a recently turned independent who has an easy rapport with McCain and who has already run for vice president as a Democrat.

But Lieberman’s long history as a Democrat could make for a bizarre debate with Biden — with the two of them sharing long records supporting labor causes and abortion rights and a host of other issues that would infuriate McCain’s activist base.

In essence, said one insider, a Lieberman pick “means McCain would run a campaign without a core constituency of the Republican Party.”

Phyllis Schlafly, of the conservative Eagle Forum, was more blunt: “I think there would be a walkout on Lieberman at the convention. He’s not a Republican.”

McCain’s rethinking doesn’t mean that the Biden pick doesn’t open some doors.

While Biden enhances Obama’s foreign policy credentials, he doesn’t represent an effort to reach out to moderate voters. Both men are ranked among the Senate’s most liberal members.

Brian Darling, a political analyst at the Heritage Foundation, says McCain doesn’t “need to answer” the Biden pick and could take advantages of the geographic flexibility it suddenly offers him.

“If this election is going to be as close as the polls indicate, Joe Biden doesn’t change the map at all,” said Darling.

_vote08blog10.jpgOf the four mentioned above, what is my take? If we’re making the pick based on Biden, last place: Lieberman. Won’t happen. I’d bet money on it. This despite being McCain’s #1 choice. Pawlenty’s out too for reasons mentioned above. Ridge is still in the running, but I really don’t think it’ll be him - not with him being for abortion rights. Despite some real electoral trouble winning over independents (absolutely necessary this year), the obvious choice is Romney, number-of-total-houses-be-darned.

Simply as a political junkie, I’m rooting for this choice, because the debate between him & Biden would be one for the ages. The men would slip & fall from all the blood on the floor. Would make the McCain-Obama debates look tame by comparison.

So there you have it: _vote08blog10.jpg’s officially rooting for Romney!

What do you think?

huckabee9.JPG p.s. though not mentioned in the article above, remember that I’ve said that Mike Huckabee remains a major dark horse at the moment. Why? The choice of Biden is a signal that Obama will try to rally his base, rather than reach across the aisle. If “them’s the rules,” then Huckabee (who, you’ll remember, won Tennessee) remains the obvious choice.

YEAH, RIGHT

August 26th, 2008, 1:03 pm by Dan Lehr

john_mccain.jpg

From a breathless Fox News online story:

SOURCES: McCAIN MAY ANNOUNCE VP CHOICE BEFORE FRIDAY

Presumptive Republican presidential nominee John McCain may announce his choice for a running mate earlier than expected, sources told FOX News on Monday.

McCain had previously said he would announce his vice presidential pick on Friday and would appear with that individual at a rally in Dayton, Ohio, following the announcement.  Friday is McCain’s 72nd birthday.

But sources close to McCain’s campaign told FOX News that his decision may come sooner than that — possibly on Thursday, when Barack Obama accepts the Democratic nomination at Invesco field in Denver, Colo.

McCain campaign spokesman Tucker Bounds diminished the news.

“I wouldn’t much weight into reports that there are windows of possibility,” he said.

_vote08blog9.jpgI would say the chances of McCain announcing his veep pick on Thursday are just slightly better than the chances of me winning the lottery - & you should know that I never play the lottery. It makes far more tactical sense to do it Friday. 

OVERHEARD: DEMOCRATIC CONVENTION WEEK EDITION

August 25th, 2008, 11:23 am by Dan Lehr

listening.jpglistening.jpglistening.jpglistening.jpglistening.jpg

It’s been a while since we’ve had this feature, but now is a good a time as any to revive it.

I’ll be adding to this post throughout the week with comments that I hear in the newsroom about the presidential race. I’d love to include what you’re overhearing, too - so weigh in by putting something in the comments section!

obama-biden.jpg

“If the ticket was reversed, & Obama was a president-in-training, then this longtime GOPer might have considered casting a vote for the Democratic ticket.”

huckabee7.jpg

“Although it’s a long shot, I think recent events open the door for a late surge of interest in Mike Huckabee. If this is really going to be base versus base he could help. They desperately need the evangelicals in Indiana, in Virginia, in Colorado. He’s the only prominent Pub who I don’t think Biden would easily mop the floor with in a debate. I would still bet money on Romney but I expect some renewed speculation on Huck.”

pitbull-dog-muzzle-leather.jpg

“Biden will definitely be a pit bull against the Republicans. He’s a little long-winded, though.”

_vote08blog9.jpg More later as I keep my ears open. What are you hearing? It’s your turn!

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