[above: Sunset, from the back of the Chattanooga High School - Center for Creative Arts, April 26th, 2003. photo by my wife.]

“When a man has joined a [political] party, he is likely to stay in it. If he change his opinion - his feeling, I mean, his sentiment - he is likely to stay, anyway; his friends are of that party, & he will keep his altered sentiment to himself, & talk the privately discarded one. On those terms he can exercise his American privilege of free speech, but not on any others. These unfortunates are in both parties, but in what proportions we cannot guess. Therefore we never know which party was really in the majority at an election.”

Who said it?

My fellow-Missourian Mark Twain, in an up-til-now unseen 1905 essay called “The Privilege of the Grave,” published in the most recent New Yorker magazine (registration required).

An interesting graph from SecularRight.org (h/t the Daily Dish) that shows people who are more partisan are more likely to pray more often.

What do you think?

Click here to view the embedded video.

Caroline Kennedy reportedly wants to fill Hillary Clinton’s shoes in the New York Senate seat.

There are two schools of thought on this.

Ruth Marcus of the Washington Post, despite some misgivings, gushes:

“What really draws me to the notion of Caroline as senator, though, is the modern-fairy-tale quality of it all. Like many women my age — I’m a few months younger than she — Caroline has always been part of my consciousness: The lucky little girl with a pony and an impossibly handsome father. The stoic little girl holding her mother’s hand at her father’s funeral. The sheltered girl, whisked away from a still-grieving country by a mother trying to shield her from prying eyes.

In this fairy tale, Caroline is our tragic national princess. She is not locked away in a tower but chooses, for the most part, to closet herself there. Her mother dies, too young. Her impossibly handsome brother crashes his plane, killing himself, his wife and his sister-in-law. She is the last survivor of her immediate family; she reveals herself only in the measured doses of a person who has always been, will always be, in the public eye.

Then, deciding that Obama is the first candidate with the inspirational appeal of her father, she chooses to abandon her previous, above-it-all detachment from the hurly-burly of politics.

I know it’s an emotional — dare I say “girly”? — reaction. But what a fitting coda to this modern fairy tale to have the little princess grow up to be a senator.”

My goodness.

Now, after brushing your teeth, read Jane Hamsher’s bucket of cold water on the idea:

“The woman has never run for office in her life. We have no idea how she’d fare on the campaign trail, or how well she could stand up to the electoral process. She simply picks up the phone and lets it be known that she just might be up for having one of the highest offices in the land handed to her because — well, because why? Because her uncle once held the seat? Because she’s a Kennedy? Because she took part as a child in the public’s romantic dreams of Camelot? I’m not quite sure.”

I’m with Hamsher.

She would certainly need to improve her public speaking skills.

But in my estimation Caroline Kennedy is about as qualified to be New York’s junior senator as Sarah Palin is to be Vice-President.

A concise & fantastic piece from Richard Posner dissects not only the recent splintering of the Republican party, but also what led liberals astray during the Reagan era; he offers excellent advice for breaking the chains of dogma:

First, Republicans:

“The financial crisis has hit economic libertarians in the solar plexus, because the crisis is largely a consequence of innate weaknesses in free markets and of excessive deregulation of banking and finance, rather than of government interference in the market. Believers in a strong foreign policy have been hurt by the protracted and seemingly purposeless war in Iraq (the main effects of which seem to have been discord between the United States and its allies, increased recruitment of Islamic terrorists, and the strengthening of Iran and of the Taliban in Afghanistan and of al Qaeda in Pakistan) and the Bush Administration’s lack of success in dealing with Iran, North Korea, Afghanistan, Pakistan, and the Arab-Israeli conflict. And social conservatives have been hurt by the stridency of some of their most prominent advocates, who all too often give the appearance of being mean-spirited, out-of-touch, know-nothing deniers of science (e.g., evolution, climate change).

The efficiency gap between the competing presidential campaigns created the appearance of a competence gap between the parties. As the campaigns progressed, a surprising number of conservatives switched their support to Obama. Thoughtful conservatives, already disturbed by the accumulation of blunders of the current Administration (the Iraq WMD, Katrina, the Justice Department scandals), culminating in its uncertain response to the financial crisis, were appalled at the iconic status that Joe the Plumber attained in the Republican campaign, the wild rumors spread by the conservative bloggers and talk-radio hosts, and the intellectual vacuity of many Republican candidates and advocates. The Republican Party seemed to have descended to anti-intellectualism–to deriding highly educated people who speak in complete sentences as “elitists,” as compared to the down-to-the-earth ignorance of Joe and his ilk–which sorts badly with the strong intellectual tradition of conservatism. It is a self-defeating strategy of conservatives to argue that “all” intellectuals are liberal and therefore conservatives should think with their guts rather than their brains.”

His solution, which includes pointing out the failures of Democrats (my emphasis added):

For myself, I would be happy to see conservatism exit from the political scene–provided it takes liberalism with it. I would like to see us enter a post-ideological era in which policies are based on pragmatic considerations rather than on conformity to a set of preconceptions rooted in a rapidly vanishing past. We have accumulated a substantial history of liberal and conservative failures. The liberal failures include underestimating the cost of egalitarianism and of social engineering by judges (the Warren Court, Roe v. Wade, the near abolition of capital punishment), and the benefits of discipline, of punishment, of enforcing principles of personal responsibility, and of military force. The conservative failures include overestimating the efficiency of unregulated markets, the efficacy of military force, and the beneficent effects of religiosity. Liberals are wrong to promote unions (described by one wag, albeit with some exaggeration, as the parasites that kill their hosts) and conservatives to promote abstinence as a substitute for condoms in preventing teenage pregnancy.”

What do you think?

The man on the left, a Democrat, has officially defeated the man on the right, the longest-serving Republican in the Senate.

That makes the Dem majority in the Senate now 58.

Minnesota’s still up in the air. The official recount begins today.

Watch that race closely.

If it’s 59 before December 2nd, the Georgia runoff will be one of the most closely watched - & fought for - races this year.

UPDATE:

ANCHORAGE, Alaska (AP) - Alaska Sen. Ted Stevens has conceded defeat in his re-election bid against Democrat Mark Begich.
The longest serving Republican in Senate history says in a statement that there are not enough ballots left to be counted for him to catch up and Begich has been elected.
Stevens says he’s deeply grateful for his 40 years of service in the Senate.
The statement was released shortly after Begich told reporters on Tuesday that he hadn’t heard from Stevens even though he’s been congratulated by other Republicans, including Gov. Sarah Palin.
The 85-year-old Stevens lost his bid for a seventh term after he was convicted on federal corruption charges.

The New York Times has reason for the Democratic party not to get all cocky, which leads to a gem from a friend who just e-mailed me:

“Kerry got more votes than Obama in California.
Kerry 6.75 Million
Bush 5.51 Million

Obama 6.37 Million
McCain 3.87 Million

With the right candidate, California could be in play for the GOP.”

Another friend counters:

“I wouldn’t take that from these stats. Any state where they didn’t campaign, it doesn’t mean much. There was no campaign in Cali. If there had been, Ob would have had 7.5 million votes and Mac would have had 5 million. Or something like that.

Ohio is much more interesting because Ob tried really hard there and didn’t do better than Kerry.”

]]> http://vote08.freedomblogging.com/2008/11/10/a-weak-link/6796/feed/ http://vote08.freedomblogging.com/2008/11/10/how-rahm-made-heath-happen/6680/ http://vote08.freedomblogging.com/2008/11/10/how-rahm-made-heath-happen/6680/#comments Mon, 10 Nov 2008 14:27:45 +0000 Dan Lehr http://vote08.freedomblogging.com/?p=6680

The future White House Chief of Staff helped the Democrats gain ground in western North Carolina’s Congressional district, with some relentless pressure applied to former Vols quarterback Heath Shuler.

Article excerpt from Emanuel’s Congressional website:

“Congressman Rahm Emanuel boasts that “patience ain’t a virtue in my book,” and that’s especially clear when the feisty Democrat from Illinois is trying to recruit candidates to run in November’s mid-term elections. Last summer, for instance, when Emanuel tried to convince Heath Shuler, former star quarterback at the University of Tennessee, to run for Congress from his native North Carolina, he had to make a hard sell. Shuler said he was worried he wouldn’t get enough time with his two young children if he was constantly shuttling back and forth from Capitol Hill, so Emanuel had more than a dozen congressional Democrats with kids call Shuler. Then he barraged Shuler himself with more than 40 calls over two weeks, just to prove it was possible to serve in Congress and still see your children. “Heath, Rahm, I’m at the pool with my kids,” he said, and then quickly hung up. Another time, “Heath, I”m driving my kids to school.” Later, “Heath, we’re getting ready for soccer practice.”

He was tireless, perhaps even annoying, and wouldn’t take no for an answer - just the kind of qualities that might be required to rally the Democratic troops gearing up for the best chance the party has to take back Congress since the GOP won both the House and Senate in 1994.”

Here’s Heath Shuler’s Congressional website.

Considering Shuler’s politics probably, on average, lean to the right of a Republican in California, I’d not take the charges that he’s too partisan too seriously. The man’s more interested in strategic victories than ideological ones.

TN voters who picked Harold Ford in the 2006 Senate Election:

48%

TN voters who picked Barack Obama in the 2008 Presidential Election:

42%

What’s behind the difference?

Discuss.

JUST 6 MORE DAYS

The Infomercial

I thought it was well-done. It certainly beats Ross Perot’s informercial from 1992.

He kept it positive - didn’t mention the word “Bush” once.

Watch & tell me what you think.

Read McCain’s ‘prebuttal’ to the infomercial here.

A lot of you have voted already. As of Monday, more than 50,000 people have voted in Hamilton County.

Which way are early voters leaning? Marc Ambinder:

Obama leads by 16 points among likely voters, by 17 points among independents, by 13 points among men, by 20 points among women, is tied among whites, and is up eight among white Catholics. Of the 15 percent of the sample who’ve already voted, Obama leads by 19 points (although this subsample has a fairly large MoE). 74% of Obama’s backers say they support him “strongly,” which is 20 points higher than the percentage who say the same about their support for McCain.

Click here for the full Pew results, as of Tuesday.

Here’s a site where you can see the early voting numbers already in from around the country. Very useful.

From that site I glean:

The number of early voters so far in Tennessee is 45% of the total number of votes in 2004. (wow.)

&, 36.4% of the ENTIRE number of votes cast in Georgia in 2004 have been cast already this year. (again, wow.)

The Peach state is turning into one of THE states to watch this year - & I had written that state off months ago, back when Bob Barr’s Georgia support started dropping off.

But now - look at this chart over at Pollster.com. We have ourselves a real nail-biter, folks.

& not just the presidential race. The battle for Saxby Chambliss’ Senate seat remains intense.

The two latest polls come from polling firms that lean either way.

The left-leaning InsiderAdvantage poll has Saxby Chambliss & Jim Martin at 46-44%, That same poll also shows McCain leading by just 1 point).

The right-leaning Strategic Vision poll has Chambliss up by 2, & McCain up by 6.

& it’s possible that Georgia may be the last Senate race called - as in called several weeks after election night. MSNBC’s First Read blog explains:

“If Martin wins, he’ll have Obama to thank because the surge in African-American turnout is clearly benefiting the Democrat. By the way, Georgia could be the state that is the final race called in the country. Why? The state has that quirky runoff law, and a third-party candidate in the race might hold one of the major party candidates under 50%. The last time Georgia hosted a Senate runoff was the last time the country elected a new Democratic president: 1992, when the election of Clinton ended up helping the Republicans pull the Senate upset (Paul Coverdell defeated Wyche Fowler). This time, however, Republicans fear that an Obama victory will only energize African Americans in the runoff and make Chambliss’ path to victory even more difficult.”

Speaking of African-American turnout, it’s huge in Georgia - check it out. Georgia’s Secretary of State reports that 35% of early voters are African-American - more than double the percentage of the state’s population.

& there seems to be a correlation between a state’s African-American voting population & percentage of early voter turnout. FiveThirtyEight.com’s Nate Silver has the details here. In short, the higher the percentage of blacks in a state, the higher early voter turnout is. The states with the highest turnout are Georgia, North Carolina & Louisiana.

Can McCain count on voters who make up their minds in this final week? The trends (from Pollster.com) from past Presidential elections, in terms of their numbers, don’t look promising:

Click this link (again, to Pollster.com) to find out which way those last-minute voters swing.

.

But still, interestingly, yet probably unsurprisingly, Obama still faces a major disadvantage with voters down here in that long-GOP stronghold, the South, per ABC News:

Obama is outperforming any Democrat back to Jimmy Carter among white voters, getting 45 percent to McCain’s 52 percent. But in the South, it is a very different story. Obama fares worse among Southern whites than any Democrat since George McGovern in 1972.

Whites in the East and West tilt narrowly toward Obama (he’s up 8 and 7 points, respectively), and the two run about evenly among those in the Midwest. By contrast, Southern whites break more than 2 to 1 for McCain, 65 percent to 32 percent.

.

SIX DAYS.

Barack Obama

His informercial appears on most of network TV tonight… except for ABC (read why here). Needless to say, I’m ashamed of my parent network about this. It’s airing “Pushing Daisies” instead, & running some frankly offensive promos about it.

Click here to view the embedded video.

Above: wet, wet wet conditions in Chester, Pennsylvania on Tuesday. Doesn’t look fun at all.

.

Click here to view the embedded video.

Above: Obama making calls to undecided voters in Colorado.

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Has Obama fudged his “no tax increases for those making under $250,000″ promise this week? Marc Ambinder does some fact-checking.

.

Michelle Obama appeared on Jay Leno Monday. Click here to watch.

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Why the Right’s ‘Kitchen Sink’ Philosophy is Failing

From the Toot:

“…once you’ve made a narrative choice, you do have to stick with it - you can’t just keep bouncing around, or people become confused. If you are telling the story of a scary vampire, you can’t decide in chapter 2 that he’s also 500 feet tall and radioactive and bent on destroying Tokyo, in chapter 3 that he is actually a giant man-eating shark, and in chapter 4 that he is all this and a super-terrorist trying to plant a nuclear bomb in Los Angeles. All of these things are, indeed, scary, but taken together they add up to a muddle.

This is the problem. It’s not just the McCain campaign’s problem - although their inability to pick a narrative and stick to it is a special kind of inexcusable - it’s a problem for the entire wingnut noise machine. Obama is a Marxist Muslim Arab Jesus Black White Terrorist Technocrat Racist Do-Gooder Liberal FDR Stalin Hilter Commie Fascist Gay Womanizing Naive Cynical Insider Noob Boring Radical Unaccomplished Elite Slick Gaffe-Prone Pedophile Pedophile-Seducing Liberation Theology Atheist Etc. & Anti-Etc. with a bunch of scary friends from - wait for it! - the Nineteen Hundred And Sixties. It makes no sense. It’s a jumble sale of fears and scary associations from 50 years of wingnut witch hunts and smear campaigns, a flea market of pre-owned and antique resentments, and if one does detect a semi-consistent 1960’s motif running through it all, that’s because that’s when most of these ideas were coined.”

.

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John McCain

Click here to view the embedded video.

Above: at a joint rally with Sarah Palin in Hershey Pennsylvania on Tuesday.

He also appeared in North Carolina..

…but, interestingly, without incumbent GOP Senator Elizabeth Dole. (this may be why)

.

Speaking of absences, someone’s face appears to be conspicuously absent from his own party’s website.

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Is the ‘Divided Government’ Argument Going to Work?

It’s the major card McCain has left to play. But Newsweek’s Andrew Romano is pessimistic. Former Bush staffer Peter Wehner hsays the party needs to return to its reformist roots [which, I'd add, is what John McCain should have pushed harder for - challenging his party to return to its fundamental principles - instead of blatantly pandering to its base, which has spent the past year essentially rooting for the status quo, or at least is blind to why the status quo is in such a sorry state].

Here’s a ‘Silver Lining’ for Republicans, though:

Single-party government rarely works for very long. It tends to overreach when there are no limits to those in power (see Congress/President Bush, 2002-2006). If this plays out, that will bode well for the beginning of a comeback for the now-battered GOP. [though I will say that if you sat on your hands & approved of how things were run under Republican leadership, you have a smaller rhetorical leg to stand on.]

& here’s a reason Democrats might prefer divided government:

['divided' here being less than a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate]

If this crazy year ends the way the trends are looking - that Obama will be elected - Obama’s historical standing would improve if he brought about change with the help & support of the minority party.

.

The Keystone State Conundrum

Why is McCain behind Obama in the Pennsylvania polls? Michael Barone hazards a guess:

“My hypothesis is that that is because places like the Philly suburbs are places where the recent decline in household wealth has been most conspicuous. Housing prices mean a lot more to you when your house started off at $400,000 and declined to $290,000 than they did when you started off (as may be typical of Scranton or a blue-collar town in metro Pittsburgh) at $140,000 and declined to $110,000. Newspaper coverage of our current economic distress focuses on the very poor (like a recent Washington Post story on North Carolina, which focused on an ex-convict in a cheap motel in Charlotte), but the people who are getting hurt most visibly in their lifelong project of accumulating wealth are the more affluent. They’re the ones whose house values have most visibly and spectacularly declined, and whose 401(k) accounts and stock portfolios have tanked in the last few months as well. Folks in Scranton or in the cheap motel in Charlotte didn’t expect to live comfortably ever after off their increased house values, 401(k)’s, and Merrill Lynch accounts; a $700 monthly check from Social Security is about what they have long expected and that’s not in danger (yet). Folks in the Philly suburbs did expect to live comfortably off such assets.”

& he concludes

“The irony here is that voters motivated by anger at the decline in their wealth seem about to elect a president who has promised to embark on wealth-destroying policies.”

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What Hath Karl Rove Wrought?

The exodus of a chunk of voters - Libertarians - who traditionally vote Republican, that’s what.

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Joe Biden

Click here to view the embedded video.

Here’s a view-from-the-crowd at a Joe rally in New Port Richey, Florida on Monday. He remained in Florida on Tuesday.

Sarah Palin

Click here to view the embedded video.

Above: at a rally in Hershey, Pennsylvania, appearing with McCain.

.

Sadly, there appears to be quite a few reports of ‘ugly Americanism‘ at her rallies, & that’s a shame for Palin & her supporters, who in my opinion should quickly & forcefully speak out about those who would tarnish her image, especially if you are hoping she becomes the Republican party’s standard-bearer after the election.

That’s it for now! I know it’s a lot to digest, but please feel free to comment on anything mentioned above. ALL views are welcome here.

& check back later in the day, as I’ll provide more info in this post. Let me know what you think of the ‘one-post’ format. I think I’ll stick to doing it this way through the home stretch.

]]> http://vote08.freedomblogging.com/2008/10/29/6-days-out/5817/feed/ http://vote08.freedomblogging.com/2008/10/22/d-r-viewing-habits/5406/ http://vote08.freedomblogging.com/2008/10/22/d-r-viewing-habits/5406/#comments Wed, 22 Oct 2008 12:52:07 +0000 Dan Lehr http://vote08.freedomblogging.com/?p=5406

Interesting tidbit from the Nielsen blog about the differences in the level of engagement between television viewers who consider themselves Democrats or Republicans:

Nielsen’s analysis found that the cable programs that received the highest overall engagement scores — meaning viewers were most engaged in the shows’ content — also received the most bipartisan support, drawing high engagement scores from viewers of both parties, as well as from viewers who identify as political “Independents.”

As might be expected, however, several programs had clear partisan bents. On Comedy Central, for example, Democratic viewers paid the most attention to “The Colbert Report,” while “South Park” was the network’s most engaging show among Republicans.

Read the full list of ‘most engaged shows’ here.

Which party would’ve made you more money?

Interesting experiment from Tommy McCall, who’s the former information graphics editor of Money Magazine.

He asks:

“…which party has been better for American pocketbooks and capitalism as a whole? Well, here’s an experiment: imagine that during these years you had to invest exclusively under either Democratic or Republican administrations. How would you have fared?”

Click here for the answer. It may surprise you.

Why it’s the Democrats’ fault, at the State_of_America blog (unclear who the author is)

Why it’s the Republicans’ fault, by Robert Creamer

Both pieces are worth your time.

This year, more than ever due to the highest of high stakes, you need to expose yourself to viewpoints that don’t share yours.

Walking a mile in their shoes will lead you down the path to wisdom.

Tell me what you think in the comments! All viewpoints are welcome & encouraged.

Hey, I got an idea: tell me which of these arguments that are on the other side of your own comes closest to having merit with you! Come on! It’ll be fun!

(image above taken from ‘the Scream‘ by Edvard Munch - image by Matt Brunson)

From the LA Times:

David Bonior, the former Michigan congressman who managed Democrat John Edwards’ campaign called the new poll findings a “real concern,” saying: “We can’t lose white women and expect to do well in this race.”

One Democratic operative is worried the “freshness, newness and aura around Barack has been eclipsed. The campaign has been knocked off stride.”

DCCC Chair Rep. Chris Van Hollen says support for Palin will fade when her record is better known: “They need to get that information out, and they need to get it out quickly,” he said.

Democratic consultant Eric Jaye: The Obama camp needs to be “very careful not to turn Sarah Palin into a working-class heroine.”

From the Huffington Post:

“Every second of this campaign not spent talking about the Republican Party’s record, and John McCain’s role in that record, is a victory for John McCain.” - Ariana Huffington

“As a Democrat, I am nervous and on the verge of desperation. As a media relations professional — someone who does messaging and media training for a living — I am simply puzzled. This is not hard stuff. The Democrats MUST stop responding and become more proactive. Here are ten tips for the Obama campaign, gratis.” - Leah McElrath Renna

“Over the last couple of days I’ve received more calls and emails than I can count from people with fear in their voices. They want to know what to make of McCain’s post- convention bounce in the polls. They want to know if Obama can still win. Most of all they want to know what they can do to help.” - Robert Creamer

“…right now, more than ever, we need a dynamic leader with the intellectual capacity to tackle the issues at hand. We need a leader who can solve economic problems, as well as deal with nuclear threats. We need a leader who can approach problems with reason and logic. Not so long ago, we had such leaders. And better yet, the public actually admired them for being masters of their craft. Nowadays it seems that many Americans equate education and intellectual capacity with snobbery and arrogance. Education and experience in leadership, though, determine capacity for leadership. Somebody lacking the necessary education and experience simply will not have the capacity to successfully lead. We wouldn’t want someone without cooking experience to cook for us, so why would we want someone without political or foreign policy experience to govern us?

Calling oneself a hero after making mistakes shouldn’t earn public trust. And certainly, selecting a person as a running mate solely because she’s a woman — and therefore appeals to a segment of potential voters — doesn’t make you right. Palin is unqualified on her record to be the president of the United States, plain and simple

Either we’re a country that believes race and gender are the key issues in 2008, or we’re going to elect the most suitable people we can find. Pragmatism doesn’t mean we elect an unqualified candidate who claims that two years as governor of Alaska qualifies her to be president. Palin has no foreign policy experience whatsoever. Alaska’s proximity to Russia doesn’t count. How about her views on unprotected sex? If we’re going to deal with morality and values, then we need to be honest. There’s something hypocritical about Palin telling our children to abstain altogether, or to at the very least have protected sex, when she apparently forgets to teach her own children to do the same. We can’t allow our leaders to play the old “do as I say, not as I do” game. Why have we resorted to nominating pretty faces on People Magazine as suitable candidates to run our nation? Is it going to take the National Enquirer covering stories about Palin’s child, childhood, six colleges, etc. to really wake us up from this bad dream? - Michael Medavoy

What do you think?

Click here to view the embedded video.

Above: the Democrats examine civil rights in the first televised Democratic convention of 1948 in Philadelphia.

Click here to view the embedded video.

Above: 1952 was still a dramatic one compared to today’s standards. Adlai Stevenson would go on to lose big to Ike.

Click here to view the embedded video.

Above: 1956, where Walter Cronkite hosts the television coverage. Great to see TV in its infancy years.

Click here to view the embedded video.

Above: think Bill Clinton is the first ex-pres to oppose a nominee? Check out Harry Truman’s behavior at the 1960 convention.

Click here to view the embedded video.

Click here to view the embedded video.

Also from 1960, watch the blistering fight from the stump between LBJ & JFK, who would end up on the same ticket.

Click here to view the embedded video.

1964: LBJ’s convention was a preview to a major landslide.. & the calm before the storm of the 1960s.

Click here to view the embedded video.

Also that year, Martin Luther King was there challenging the all-white delegation from Mississippi.

Click here to view the embedded video.

& then came ‘68. Great moment here that essentially lost Democrats the election. Just imagine this happening today. Great live coverage here from the CBS team.

Click here to view the embedded video.

Dan Rather was man-handled on the floor, too. I’ve had trouble posting this clip, so sorry if it doesn’t work.

Click here to view the embedded video.

Here’s the History Channel’s take. Wish the music wouldn’t be so obtrusive here. Salty language alert from Chicago’s mayor.

Click here to view the embedded video.

In 1972 Democrats tried to calm things down.. but they made a huge mistake by keeping McGovern from making his acceptance speech until after midnight. McGovern lost big this year.

Click here to view the embedded video.

& then came Watergate.. which helped Jimmy Carter become the first deep Southerner to win the presidency in over a century.

Click here to view the embedded video.

In 1980 Ted Kennedy tried to challenge the incumbent Carter, & failed. Bill Clinton makes an early appearance. Very awkward moment near the end of this clip in which Kennedy & Carter do not shake hands.

Click here to view the embedded video.

1984 saw the first time a woman appeared on a presidential ticket (which ultimately lost). Here’s a behind-the-scenes look.

Click here to view the embedded video.

Michael Dukakis was the star of the 1988 convention. He ultimately lost.

Click here to view the embedded video.

Bill Clinton found a winning formula in 1992.

That’s enough for now! Sorry for all the clips.. I’m a history buff, what can I say?

We’ll of course give the same treatment to past GOP conventions next week.

In the meantime, which convention do you think is most notable above? Post a comment & let me know!

It’s time for the local Democratic delegation to hit the road for Denver. Today on NewsChannel 9 at 5:30, you’ll hear from one of them, Justin Wilkins (above, left) - & I’ll link the story as soon as it’s posted online.

As for who they’ll hear & what they’ll see, read the rundown of the Democratic Denver Convention after the jump.

From the Page:

Monday, August 25 – One Nation.
Barack Obama’s story is an American story that reflects a life of struggle, opportunity and responsibility like those faced by Americans everyday. The opening night of the Convention will highlight Barack’s life story, his commitment to change, and the voices of Americans who are calling for a new direction for this country.

Monday’s headline prime-time speaker will be Michelle Obama.

Other Monday night speakers include:
Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi; Senator Claire McCaskill of Missouri; Barack Obama’s sister Maya Soetero-Ng and Craig Robinson, Michelle Obama’s older brother; Jerry Kellman, mentor and long-time friend of Barack Obama; Representative Jesse Jackson, Jr.; former Indiana Representative Lee Hamilton; Tom Balanoff, President of Illinois SEIU; Nancy Keenan, President of NARAL Pro-Choice America; NEA President Reg Weaver; AFT President Randi Weingarten; Illinois Attorney General Lisa Madigan; State Comptroller Dan Hynes; Illinois State Treasurer Alexi Giannoulis; Chicago City Clerk Miguel del Valle; and Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper.

Monday night will also feature a tribute to Senator Edward M. Kennedy.

Tuesday, August 26 – Renewing America’s Promise.
Millions of Americans are struggling to get by. The failed policies of the last eight years have betrayed the country’s values and left an economy out of balance. Barack Obama believes a strong economy is unattainable with a weak middle class. Tuesday’s Convention program will feature the voices of Americans who share Barack’s concerns and strongly support his detailed economic plan to grow the economy, create jobs, restore fairness, and expand opportunity.

Senator Hillary Clinton will be the headline prime-time speaker and former Virginia Governor Mark Warner will deliver the keynote address on Tuesday night. Pay Equity pioneer Lilly Ledbetter will also address the Convention on Tuesday.

Other Tuesday speakers will include:
Governor Brian Schweitzer of Montana; Governor Deval Patrick of Massachusetts; Governor Kathleen Sebelius of Kansas; Governor Janet Napolitano of Arizona; Governor Joe Manchin of West Virginia; Governor Jim Doyle of Wisconsin; Governor Ed Rendell of Pennsylvania; Governor Ted Strickland of Ohio; Governor David Paterson of New York; Governor Chet Culver of Iowa; Senator Bob Casey, Jr., of Pennsylvania; Senator Patrick Leahy of Vermont; former Secretary of Energy and Transportation Federico Peña; House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer; House Democratic Caucus Chair Rahm Emanuel; Representative Xavier Becerra (D-CA), Assistant to the Speaker of the House; and Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) Chair Chris Van Hollen, who will use his time to showcase his top candidates for change.

Representatives Nydia Velazquez (D-NY), Linda Sanchez (D-CA), Tammy Baldwin (D-WI), Eleanor Holmes Norton (D-DC), Mike Honda (D-CA), California Controller John Chiang, Planned Parenthood President Cecile Richards, Change To Win’s Anna Burger, and AFL-CIO President John Sweeney will also speak.

Wednesday, August 27 – Securing America’s Future.
Barack Obama offers a new, tough foreign policy that is neither Republican nor Democratic, but is a strong, smart American foreign policy to make our country more secure and advance our interests in the world. Wednesday night’s Convention program will feature the voices of Americans who share Barack’s vision of making America stronger and safer.

The headline prime-time speaker on Wednesday will be Barack Obama’s Vice Presidential Nominee.

Featured speakers will include:
Former President Bill Clinton; former Senator Tom Daschle; Governor Bill Richardson and Senators Evan Bayh, Joe Biden, John Kerry and Jay Rockefeller. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, Convention home state Senator Ken Salazar, House Majority Whip James E. Clyburn, and Congressman Robert Wexler (D-FL) along with Chicago Mayor Richard Daley. Representative Patrick Murphy (D-PA) and Iraq War veteran Tammy Duckworth will lead a tribute honoring those who give so much to secure our nation’s future – veterans, active duty military and their families.

Thursday, August 28 – Change You Can Believe In.
On Thursday night, the DNCC will throw open the doors of the Convention and move to INVESCO Field at Mile High so that more Americans can be a part of the fourth night of the Convention as Barack Obama accepts the Democratic nomination. Obama will communicate the urgency of the moment, highlight the struggles Americans are facing and call on Americans to come together to change the course of our nation. Additional details of the program to precede Barack Obama’s acceptance speech will be announced later this week.

Democrats continued to live down to their reputation this weekend.

The Rules & Bylaws Committee of the Democratic Party met & decided to seat delegates from the disputed states - Michigan & Florida.. but have them only count for half the vote:

Click here to view the embedded video.

Needless to say, this did not go over well with Clinton fans. Here’s the reaction of Harold Ickes, who’s a Clinton supporter on the committee, & who helped schedule this year’s “top-heavy” primaries in the hopes that his candidate would prevail:

Click here to view the embedded video.

Will Hillary continue past tomorrow? Good question. The answer (as it has been since February 5th) will determine which she cares about more — herself, or her party.

What do you think? Post a comment!

HAPPY PENNSYLVANIA PRIMARY DAY!

More links & clips about today than you can shake a cheesesteak at, after you click “read the rest of this entry.

TODAY’S ESSENTIAL READS:

Dan Balz of the Washington Post has 8 essential questions about what it will take to win today.
Could Obama pull an upset? Toby Harnden of the UK Telegraph shows us how it could work.
Which demographic is key to winning the primary today? White men.
What should you watch for as the results come in? ABC’s Poobah of Polling, Gary Langer, has some numbers to watch.

POLLS:

See the RealClearPolitics.com compiled average here. The average has Clinton leading by 6 percentage points. Only one poll has Obama in the lead.

But there are several ‘unknowns,’ including

1. the 100,000+ new voters who have registered or switched party registration to vote in this primary, who don’t participate in polls.
2. whether or not Obama’s dominance in TV advertising will make a difference.
3. whether or not Obama’s “bitter” controversy will hurt him
4. whether or not Clinton’s “kitchen sink” strategy of late will hurt her

Hillary Clinton unveiled a “final-hour” ad that includes a picture of Osama bin Laden:

Click here to view the embedded video.

Details & reaction about that ad here.

Here’s Obama’s response ad:

Click here to view the embedded video.

& finally.. did the candidates learn from John Kerry’s 2004 Philadelphia mistake?

No.

Kerry, you may recall, ordered a cheesesteak while campaigning in the Keystone state in 2004.. & immediately turned off Pennsylvania voters by asking if he could get swiss cheese on that. (details here.)

A couple of weeks ago Obama passed on the chance to sample the signature sandwich. & we looked & couldn’t find any evidence that Clinton chowed down on one, either.

& now it’s your turn! Who’s going to win? What kind of margin of victory does Hillary need to stay in the race? Could this race signify the beginning of the end of the Obama candidacy? Or is it the end of the beginning? We’d love to hear from you, so please post a comment!

The NewsChannel9 viewing area will get some heavy representation at this August’s Democratic Convention in Denver. Find out who they are after the jump.

Over the weekend in Clinton, Tennessee, delegate candidates from the 3rd Congressional district held their nominating convention to see who would get to go. (Read Vote08’s account of the Hamilton County convention here).

As the Hamilton County Democratic John Bailes explains in his party’s latest blog post, the delegates are (from left to right in the photo)

Justin Wilkins, of Hamilton County, who’s 27 & Southeast Tennessee’s Obama campaign organizer, for Obama,
Linda Patrick, of Bradley County, for Obama,
Pat Branham, of Hamilton County, for Clinton,
& Ricky Starnes, of Bradley County, for Clinton.

Recall Obama won Hamilton County & Clinton won the state of Tennessee, giving this congressional delegation a 2-2 dole-out. Note also the genders are equally divided, which was the intention.

Congrats to all you local delegates! Bailes is now trying to help raise money for their trip, as they’ll need to pay their way to get there.

‘

Hard to believe.. but the Iowa caucuses were just 34 days ago. Since then, it’s been a manic sprint to get more than half the country to pick their presidential candidate, with narratives changing by the week, and in some cases, by the day. Now that Super Tuesday is in our rearview mirror, the campaign is switching from a sprint to a marathon. It could still be another full 75 days before we know the outcome of the Democratic race to the nomination, though as we noted yesterday, Republicans seem to have wrapped up their half of the contest.

Vote08 has its running shoes on and is pacing itself for the long haul. You can depend on us to bring you the major issues in the Presidential campaign - & its impact on the Tennessee Valley. I hope you check back on a daily basis to get a rundown of where the candidates & the campaign stands each morning. & I hope you weigh in often with your opinion. All political viewpoints are welcome here, & we hope to maintain a continual discussion to find out who will be the 44th president, how we can best turn around an apparent long-term slide as a world superpower, & how best to address the other issues & challenges this nation faces.

Let’s start the morning with a look at what we can glean from the latest Presidential webpoll at NewsChannel9.com. (The poll has now closed).

Which of these major presidential candidates would you most like to see win the White House in November?
Hillary Clinton - 31%
Mike Huckabee-32%
John McCain-17%
Barack Obama-14%
Mitt Romney-7%
Total Votes: 1244

This poll is unscientific, but NewsChannel9 is able to limit it to one vote per computer. 1244 votes is a higher-than-normal amount for a web poll, so it’s great that you are paying attention!

As often happens, the numbers did not significantly change with the number of votes. These percentages stayed on track throughout the 6 days the poll was up. Can we divine what this means for the Tennessee Valley’s general election vote in November? Sure we can!

-We’re living in Huckabee country. If John McCain names him as the Vice Presidential nominee, he’s all but assured a win in these three states.

-But if he keeps Huckabee off the ticket, that could mean good news for Hillary Clinton — despite her loss in Hamilton County to Barack Obama.

-Mitt Romney never would have had a chance here as the nominee, & if Obama’s the nominee he either needs to cede the state to his rival or spend a lot of money.

Of course this is a Super Tuesday snapshot; the Tennessee Valley’s opinions on all of these candidates will change over time.

We’ll have some interesting points to ponder after the jump.

“Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama split the popular vote 50.2% to 49.8%, by a margin so thin, you could barely slide a butterfly ballot betwixt.” - Time Magazine

“We are told the GOP nomination has not been won “fairly quickly,” as in recent contests. This is a horrible misremembering of history. The senior Bush took 45 days after the first contest to secure the nomination in 1988. It took Bob Dole 35 days to become the presumptive nominee in 1996. The current president took 45 days to clear the field in 2000. The first contest this year was on Jan. 3. Let’s at least give the process until the middle or end of February before pundits start predicting doom because of how long it’s taking.” - Karl Rove

“Barack Obama’s campaign is on track to raise another $30 million in February…while Hillary Rodham Clinton’s spokesman revealed Wednesday that she had loaned her campaign $5 million.” - the Politico

“Mike Huckabee has done something that no other cultural values conservative in the history of the Republican Party, modern Republican Party has done. He has won a series of states. I mean, Pat Buchanan didn’t do it. Pat Robertson didn’t do it. He has the chance right now to emerge as the leader, as the youngest candidate in the field on the Republican side, to emerge as the leader of that cultural values wing of the party.” - Columnist Mark Shields on the PBS NewsHour last night

“A fascinating dynamic appears when voters are asked to judge the [opposing parties'] candidates’ strength and experience vs. their new ideas and potential for bringing change. McCain and Clinton match closely in both dimensions, while McCain leads Obama by 20 points on strength and experience, but Obama has a 31-point edge on representing a new direction.” - Columnist David Broder

“The most interesting demographic division in this campaign is one that’s often overlooked — not race or gender, but age. The leading candidates represent three generations, each with a distinct style and resonance. This issue may explain why the country is taking its time to make up its mind and is confounding predictions.” - Columnist David Ignatius

“[For Democrats,] will this be 1932 and a chance to elect an historic candidate with an historic mission for change? That could be either the first woman or the first African American. Also, Democrats have an opportunity to turn this into a new New Deal, or a similar 1980 Reagan moment. Each of those cases offered a package for change with a new kind of vision….On the other hand, will Democrat race degenerate into a repeat of 1968? That year, supporters of Robert Kennedy and Eugene McCarthy, who were very opposed to the war in Vietnam, refused to warm up to party nominee Hubert Humphrey. Their lukewarm support cost Humphrey the election, and helped to elect Nixon by one point.” - former ABC News Political Director Mark Halperin

“Mr. Obama does surprisingly well among evangelical Christians, an important constituency in swing states. For example, Relevant magazine, which caters to young evangelicals, asked its readers: “Who would Jesus vote for?” Mr. Obama was the winner and came out 27 percentage points ahead of Mrs. Clinton.” - Columnist Nicholas Kristoff

“There are seven reasons for anyone to support the eventual [Republican] nominee no matter who it is: The war and six Supreme Court justices over the age of 68.” - Radio talk show host Hugh Hewitt

“The “either/or” crowd surprisingly claims that the two Democratic candidates are more alike than different, yet those who gravitate to Obama find their motives questioned and their loyalties on trial. Even long standing allies of the women’s movement have been unable to escape the label of “traitor” for opting to support Barack Obama instead of Hillary Clinton.” - Kimberle Crenshaw & Eve Ensler, two feminists for Obama

“There’s a new rule at the Republican National Committee. Refer to the two leading Democratic presidential candidates simply as “Barack” and “Hillary” and you’ll be fined $10.” - Washington Whispers

A lack of candidate candor over the Iraq question is hurting the United States’ long-term efforts in the struggle against terrorism. Vote08 has reality checks for voters on both sides after the jump.

First, the Democrats.

(from last night’s debate:)

CLINTON: I’ve been very clear in saying that I will begin to withdraw troops in 60 days. I believe that it will take me one to two brigades a month, depending on how many troops we have there, and that nearly all of them should be out within a year. BLITZER: But you can’t make a commitment, though, that 16 months after your inauguration will be enough time? CLINTON: I certainly hope it will be. And I’ve said I hope to have nearly all of them out within a year.

Obama (wisely) did not go so far as to make a commitment like this, but it is clear that many Democratic voters will expect whoever is the nominee to begin a troop pullout of Iraq immediately.

VOTE08 REALITY CHECK: At the end of this next administration, regardless of who’s in office, U.S. troops will still be in Iraq. The force size could change. The mission could change. The leadership & tactics on the ground could improve. But we’ll still be debating the issue for the 2012 election.

Consider sand. It’s everywhere in Iraq. It’s unavoidable. Each & every U.S. military vehicle in Iraq right now is full of it. Forget the military or political considerations — once the decision is made to leave, getting all of those vehicles out of the country presents a logistical nightmare, as illustrated by the man who oversaw this operation at the end of the First Gulf War:

“I think it’ll take at least 12 to 18 months to do this. Getting out of Iraq is not the issue; getting out of the theater of operation is. You can drive out of Iraq and nobody’s going to inspect you or anything. But once you get in Kuwait, every piece of equipment, every container, every generator has to be scrubbed and washed and inspected by the Agriculture Department so that we do not bring any hidden diseases back to the United States. Desert sand becomes hardened mud like cement. And all that’s got to be sprayed down or they won’t allow it on ships to get it home.” - Lt. General William Pagonis, Gulf War logistics chief

Read more of that general’s interview & you’ll recognize this won’t be an operation that can be solved “in the 1st 60 days” or “a year.” & if the estimate is “12-18 months, ” & considering how slow the bureaucratic wheels in the military move on something like this, you should tack on another 6 months to a year. & there is also the logistical issue of getting 100,000 American civilians out of Iraq - not to mention our obligations to the many Iraqis who helped U.S troops.

& now the Republicans:

Senator John McCain & Mitt Romney both spent a lot of time at their debate earlier this week going back-&-forth over whether or not Romney called for timetables for a troop withdrawl. Congressman Ron Paul gave his best answer of the evening that gives the Reality Check for Republicans on Iraq:

“We should be debating foreign policy, whether we should have interventionism or non-interventionism, whether we should be defending this country or whether we should be the policemen of the world, whether we should be running our empire or not, and how are going to have guns and butter? And we have these silly arguments going on about who said what when. I think it’s time to debate foreign policy and why we don’t follow the Constitution and only go to war with a declaration of war.”

Paul’s answer to the issues he raised may or may not be right; but he gets points for asking the right question.

VOTE08 REALITY CHECK: The debate’s not about who said what about a timetable for withdrawl. The debate is about how we create the conditions that remove the U.S.’s obligations to keep the country together — making “setting a timetable for withdrawl” moot. President Bush famously said in the 2000 debate “we’re not in the nation-building business.” Yet his policies as president were a 180 degree shift from that way of thinking. Republicans need to acknowledge that a lack of vision & overarching long-term strategy for victory against Islamic extremism since the Iraq invasion has hurt the United States’ struggle against terror. We think far too much about military tactics & not about waging (& winning) the war of ideas. The success of the surge has been a temporary solution that takes Iraq off of the front page. But the question about how best -philosophically- to approach conflicts such as these on the world stage remains, and none of the Republican candidates have approached this issue with any candor whatsoever. Doing so will help increase their chances of victory this year. Republican candidates who stick beside President Bush’s current “just looking over the next hill” strategy do so at their own peril.

What do you think? Which candidates have the best & worst plans for Iraq? Let Vote08 know — post a comment!