The Blog Formerly Known As Vote '08

The Tennessee Valley gets its first up-close glimpse of the 2008 Presidential campaign today. John Edwards appears at the IBEW Local 175 at 3922 Volunteer Drive at 11:15 a.m.

Directions: Take the Bonny Oaks exit off of 153 & head towards downtown Chattanooga (west). Take your 1st left onto Industry Drive & then another left onto Volunteer Drive.

Recapping what I said this weekend: There are two ways for candidates to make an impact on a local market like Chattanooga: a) buy ads in local media, and b) visit. Edwards’ 3rd place standing means he doesn’t have as much cash as his rivals, so he’s opting for b).

He’s scheduled for an event in Nashville at 1:30 CST, which is 2:30 EST. Assuming he’s on schedule (as one never should) that means we’re looking at an hour & 15 minutes of Edwards face time. That’s maximum, but I would guess the time you’ll be able to see him is close to half that.

Should you go if you can? Absolutely. This goes for everyone of any political stripe. These events happen with the rarity of solar eclipses, and regardless of how you feel about the man it’s still a fun event to witness. Depend on NewsChannel 9 and NewsChannel9.com (not to mention Vote08) to keep you up to date on what’s happening.

Edwards made a stop yesterday in Dublin, Georgia. If you live in north Georgia and are a fan, this Chattanooga visit is likely your only chance to see him.

Crunching Edwards’ 2004 TN Primary Numbers

A recent poll shows Edwards is doing better in east Tennessee than the rest of the state. So how did he do in the last primary season? USElectionAtlas.org crunches the 2004 numbers for Hamilton County. They show Edwards came in third behind John Kerry & Wesley Clark in Hamilton County, with 19% of the vote.

By contrast Edwards did far better in Bradley County in 2004, coming in 2nd to Kerry with 26%. That number conforms with other Tennessee counties in the NewsChannel9 viewing area, and mirrors his ultimate 2004 Volunteer State primary outcome.

So there’s a good chance Edwards’ campaign took those lower-than-the-rest-of-the-neighborhood 2004 Hamilton County numbers into account when deciding to visit Chattanooga today.

A higher amount of support for Edwards is reflected in the latest NewsChannel9.com web poll of the Democratic field, which closed earlier today. Here are the results:

Which Democratic presidential candidate will get your vote in the upcoming February 5th primaries?
Hillary Clinton 34%
Barack Obama 15%
John Edwards 20%
I’m Still Undecided 4%
None of Them 27%
Total Votes: 453

Edwards comes in second, reflecting real, scientific poll numbers. Also interesting: this poll only had 2/3rds as much participation than in the Republican web poll we did last week.

Check back with Vote08 throughout the day for updates on Edwards’ visit!

Game-changing night? No. I think I’m going on the record as doubting it. For now.

Expected? Not by anyone being straight with you.

Barack Obama gets more than a majority of the vote in South Carolina Saturday. His acceptance speech is worth a read.

Six quick relevant paragraphs from the SC’s best paper, the State, as this campaign now moves forward:

Each side accused the other of playing the race card, sparking a controversy that frequently involved Bill Clinton.

“They are getting votes, to be sure, because of their race or gender. That’s why people tell me Hillary doesn’t have a chance of winning here,” the former president said at one stop as he campaigned for his wife, strongly suggesting that blacks would not support a white alternative to Obama.

Clinton campaign strategists denied any intentional effort to stir the racial debate. But they said they believe the fallout has had the effect of branding Obama as “the black candidate,” a tag that could hurt him outside the South.

Nearly six in 10 voters said the former president’s efforts for his wife was important to their choice, and among them, slightly more favored Obama than the former first lady.

Overall, Obama defeated Clinton among both men and women.

The exit polls showed the economy was the most important issue in the race. About one quarter picked health care. And only one in five said it was the war in Iraq, underscoring the extent to which the once-dominant issue has faded in the face of financial concerns.

Other exit poll observations:

• Only age group to vote majority-Clinton: 65 & up
• Obama’s support was highest among those who attend church more than weekly
• Bill Clinton’s efforts were important (in a good way) for almost half of Hillary’s electorate.
• The only non-black voting bloc Obama won were voters aged 18-29

This is great news for the Obama campaign. Those who predicted “double-digit” leads were thinking 12-14, not mid-20s.

This is good news for the Clinton campaign. Blacks voted en masse (roughly 80%) for Obama, which means the Clinton machine has an “electability” argument still alive

This is terrible news for the Clinton campaign. Voters were turned off by the Bill&Hill machine. In divide-&-conquer tactics he used across the state last week, Bill Clinton unwittingly reminded Democrat voters across the country of Karl Rove.

This is horrible and somewhat encouraging news for the John Edwards campaign. Far worse than expected, but I suspect he’s still a factor & won’t drop out in the coming days. This still could come down to a delegate decision, after all. Hillary Clinton (more than Barack Obama) helped boost his standing as “the adult in the Democratic party.”

Sunday morning Neil Diamond’s muse endorsed Barack Obama in the New York Times. And Frank Rich shows how a Billary ticket illuminates the clearest path to the White House for the Republican nom.

NewsChannel9.com web poll update:

The web poll comes pretty close to how WSMV-TV’s statewide poll shows east Tennessee.

What do you think?

• Is this the push in momentum Obama needs to survive Tsunami Tuesday?
• Was this two-ninjas-against-one performance from Bill&Hill a one-time only thing?
• Hillary supporters: is this the kind of campaign you were hoping for?
• Will enough east Tennessee Democrats turn out for John Edwards to affect the statewide outcome?
• What, if anything, does Harold Ford, Jr.’s failed 2006 bid against current Senator Bob Corker say about Obama’s chances in Tennessee on February 5th?
• And exactly how fervently are Republicans rooting for Hillary right now?

The current media narrative is this: Barack Obama wins South Carolina by double digits, enlivening a campaign that’s had its share of bumps & bruises in the past week. This gives voters in Tsunami Tuesday a chance to see yes, he can in fact get enough ballot-box votes (as opposed to caucus votes, which carried him to victory in Iowa) to make him a legitimate player on February 5th.

That narrative’s flawed. The Obama campaign needs a miracle to survive past the first week of February.

In a link I provided earlier this morning , Mark Halperin of Time Magazine provides some pretty clear evidence that Clinton is still counting on prevailing in the Palemetto state. Clinton’s staffers are doing their best to lower expectations in the media precisely because they know they’re going to give Obama a run for his money.

Take a look at latest Zogby poll of South Carolina Democrats. The trend shows a decline in support for Obama, and a slight uptick for Edwards. Clinton’s numbers remain unchanged. This says to me the race is going to be won - by Obama, I’m predicting - by a difference a few percentage points north of 5. That scenario works magnificently for Hillary Clinton. She gets to ‘beat’ expectations, and send subtle messages (maybe not-so-subtle if Bill Clinton is the messenger) that Obama “only” won because South Carolina’s Democrats are roughly 50% African-Americans. The implication (for Clinton) is that of course he won.. there. But he still can’t win a majority of the Democratic electorate.

The Clintons have demonstrated they will sacrifice party unity, civility & decorum to win the White House. And it’s nothing personal against Obama - they’d aggressively attack any candidate who blocks their way. One attack that seemed to work in the last debate was her attempt to tie Obama to an indicted real-estate magnate, Tony Rezko. Today Matt Drudge has posted a photograph that takes that argument off the table. Another parry against the heated Clinton rhetoric came from the Washington Post’s E.J. Dionne today, who reminded Bill Clinton of the first Democratic presidential candidate to praise Ronald Reagan.

A friend who’s an Obama fan outlines his one chance for victory:

“1) convincing, across the board SC win (note: a poll yesterday had him with only 10% of the white vote there).

2) Gets Hillary angry in a way that backfires on her in the California debate.

3) Has a genius campaign between SC and Feb 5. Finds a clear negative message on the Clintons that resounds. Everyone says you can’t beat popular Bill, but what other choice does he have but to find a way to do so?

And then he somehow stays close enough on Feb 5 so that she doesn’t effectively have it in the bag after that day is over. At that point, we might be returning to more retail campaigning, which he can possibly beat her at. Come on, that’s like a 25% chance at best.”

The latest national polls of the Democratic candidates drives home that point.

UPDATE/4:45pm: The race is going to be a lot tighter - in 3 ways - than the current polls & conventional wisdom are leading us to believe. For South Carolina I see the 1-2-3 spot all separated by single digits, closer than all three would prefer to be to one another. But it’s possible all 3 candidates could argue they won. Boy, did I get this wrong!!!

Iowa was Obama-Edwards-Clinton 37-29-29

New Hampshire was Clinton-Obama-Edwards 39-36-17

South Carolina’s going to resemble the former more than the latter, & perhaps even be closer..

NEWSCHANNEL9.COM WEB POLL UPDATE/4:45pm

What do you think will happen in South Carolina? Will an Obama win turn things around for his campaign? Is a Hillary Clinton nomination inevitable? Or will her & husband’s campaign style turn off enough primary voters to change the dynamic? Let us know! Post a comment!