Speechwars.com, says there are three words uttered yesterday that made their presidential inaugural address debut (h/t Marc Ambinder). See what they were after the jump.

1. Muslims

2. Nonbelievers

3. Data

The 1st two words I can understand.

The last is somewhat of a surprise to me.

So which words have presidents used most often? Check out this speechwars’ word cloud for the answer.

Post from: The Blog Formerly Known As Vote '08

Above: listen to FDR’s speech following the attack on Pearl Harbor, 67 years ago today.

Beth Dempsey of the Schlager Group outlines 5 things you may not realize about this momentous speech:

    1. No speechwriters, please. FDR dictated virtually every word of his
    address to his secretary, Grace Tully. The only exception was the
    next-to-last sentence, the phrasing of which was suggested by his close
    adviser Harry Hopkins.

    2. The facts speak for themselves. With the exception of his dramatic
    reference to "infamy" and one mention of "treachery," FDR never offered a
    personal opinion on the Japanese attacks in his address. Instead, he
    solemnly detailed the facts of the event, relying on listeners to draw
    their own conclusions.

    3. A foreshadow of things to come. FDR's call for "absolute victory"
    presaged the later decision to wage war until the Japanese surrendered
    unconditionally. This grand call for total victory also helps to explain
    why the United States later decided to drop the atomic bomb on Japan.

    4. Short but powerful. The address to Congress contains just 25 sentences,
    fewer than 500 words, and was delivered in about 7 minutes. In that brief
    address, FDR was so persuasive that within 33 minutes, a declaration of
    war passed unanimously in the Senate, and in the House of Representatives
    only one dissenting vote was cast (Jeannette Rankin, a pacifist from
    Montana, the first woman elected to Congress).

    5. Defining a historic moment. "But always will our whole Nation remember
    the character of the onslaught against us," said FDR, positioning the
    attack as a defining event in the country's history. Roosevelt's use of
    the future tense - "always will" - reflected a sense of moral certainty
    that reinforced his role as commander in chief.

Post from: The Blog Formerly Known As Vote '08

Read more about Clinton’s (predictably late) appearance here.

On the other side of the fence, the NRA is setting its sights on Martin’s defeat.

Don’t forget - you can early-vote in Georgia for the runoff right now.

Post from: The Blog Formerly Known As Vote '08

Post from: The Blog Formerly Known As Vote '08

With 1 Day to Go, a Family Tragedy

CHARLOTTE, N.C. (AP) - Barack Obama says that his grandmother has died.
The Democratic presidential candidate announced the news in a joint statement with his sister Maya Soetoro-Ng. He said his grandmother, Madelyn Dunham, had died peacefully after a battle with cancer.
He said: “She was the cornerstone of our family, and a woman of extraordinary accomplishment, strength, and humility. She was the person who encouraged and allowed us to take chances.”
The candidate learned of her death Monday morning while he was campaigning in Jacksonville, Fla. He planned to go ahead with campaign appearances.
Late last month, Obama took a break from campaigning and flew to Hawaii to be with the 86-year-old Dunham, who helped raise him.

Read Obama’s family’s statement here.

Yes, she did already vote absentee for her grandson.

Read more on Obama’s grandmother in this Vote08 post.

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Election Day Forecast

The Storm Track 9 weather team tells me that the only weather events that might possibly effect voters is some rain that’ll hit eastern NC & eastern VA.

I’m told the rain will be light.. with a year that’s seen turnout busting all records, I hazard a guess that weather won’t play into the final outcome.

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Above: Obama in Columbus, Ohio today.

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Above: Biden in Lee’s Summit, Missouri today

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Above: McCain in Moon Township, PA (I’m still looking for his Blountville, TN appearance on the YouTubes)

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Above: Sarah Palin in Jefferson City, Missouri

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Post from: The Blog Formerly Known As Vote '08

What’s going on?

In this post, which will remain up until Tuesday night, I’m pulling back the curtain & showing you exactly what news about campaign 2008 I am checking throughout the day.

The most recent entry will be at the top; to start from the beginning, scroll to the bottom.

& I want to hear what you think! Click here to post a comment.

Calvin Can’t Stop Talking about McCain’s Tennessee Stop

Amazing on a day when his beloved Tennessee Vols are in the news.. Calvin says he’s got a better idea for McCain’s strategy in winning NC & VA than stopping in Blountville:

A campaign stop in the Tri-Cities was bad strategy for McCain, trying to woo SW Virginia and Western NC voters.. True, two of the three TV stations with strong VHF signals (WCYB-TV, Channel 5 and WJHL-TV, Channel 11), do indeed blanket all of SW Virginia and part of Western North Carolina.

But SW Virginia voters work and shop in Tri-Cities, Tennessee. As a result, they are usually politically aligned with their neighbors in Upper East Tennessee.. SW Virginia voters are mostly Republican, voting the same way upper East Tennessee has voted for generations, and this includes absentee voting, early voting, and Election Day-of voting.

A Republican visit by a presidential candidate and covered heavily on Tri-Cities TV, only reinforces the way SW Virginia voters are going to vote anyway.

AND, Tri-Cities stations only get marginally viewership from Western North Carolina counties, and even then, mostly along the TN-NC border, because the mountains cut the signals off.

A much better media consideration for McCain would have been, a stop in Asheville, North Carolina, and then one in Roanoke, Virginia.. The 3 main reasons being:

1) Only two years ago, Western North Carolina elected Democrat Heath Shuler to Congress, and Tri-Cities station signals simply don’t reach that far down into that state. 2) The Roanoke TV market. A McCain visit in Roanoke would have had more of an impact on Central Virginia voters that all watch WSLS-TV, WDBJ-TV and WSET-TV from Roanoke-Lynchburg, and would have given McCain double-coverage, because Tri-Cities TV stations, mindful of their SW Virginia audience, would cover it extensively for their SW Virginia viewers anyway.

3) WLOS-TV, Asheville. With a transmitter signal coming from atop one of the highest points in the Eastern United States, and blanketing ALL of Western North Carolina, a McCain visit would have saturated the western third of the state, including that Democratic pocket that elected Heath Shuler, and also have been covered extensively by the rest of the North Carolina media.

Thanks, Calvin! .

Election Day Times

Mon/2:07pm

Click here for a full rundown of election times in Tennessee, Georgia, Alabama & North Carolina.

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Mor McCane Mispellingz

Mon/1:49pm

Think Progress has discovered three instances of misspelled words in McCain’s ads that have aired in the last month.

Come on, guys! Do you really have to get them out that fast?

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The Dog That Didn’t Bark

Mon/1:23pm

The Politico’s Jonathan Martin speculates what the 2008 campaign would look like if McCain & surrogates used Rev. Wright as an issue more:

“Conversations with a number of veteran GOP consultants indicate that using Wright may have helped McCain with one set of voters — but would have hurt with others and not ultimately proved decisive in a contest subsumed by larger external forces such as the economic crisis and the unpopularity of President Bush and the Republican Party.”

McCain deserves credit for not ‘going there.’

As Liddy Dole is about to find out, attacking someone’s faith only ends up hurting the attacker in the end.

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Why’s He in Tennessee Today?

Mon/1:18pm

He’s stopping in Blountville - you can be assured I’ll be looking for clips to post later today.

But why Blountville? He’s got the Volunteer State wrapped up.

Marc Ambinder says:

So why is Sen. McCain campaigning in Blountville, TN?

It has nothing to do with Blountville.

It has everything to do with the parts of rural North Carolina and rural Virginia that share its media market.

NewsChannel9 anchor & expert in all things ‘upper-east Tennessee’ Calvin Sneed says:

“I already knew that.. One-third of the audience that WCYB-TV and WJHL-TV reach are in Southwest Virginia up to Roanoake, and Western North Carolina, within a 70 mile circumference of Asheville. Too bad Kentucky is not a swing state. Those two stations also blanket Eastern-Southeastern Kentucky. I also knew two weeks ago, he’d be coming to Tri-Cities before the end of the campaign.”

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Good Gravy!

Mon/1:12PM

As if Georgia’s not enough (scroll down), check out North Carolina’s polls, which have tightened as of today.

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Mapping a McCain Win

Mon/11:48am

Nate Silver looks at several computer models. His top projection is above.

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If You’re Reading This, You’re Part of the Revolution

Mon/10:47am

Look at these numbers from Pew, which shows internet usage has TRIPLED this year, while TV & newspaper usage remains static.

Truly amazing.

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“My Wife Made Me Canvass for Obama”

Mon/10:40am

Read what a former Bush voter in North Carolina found out about voters while canvassing with his wife.

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The Five States to Watch on Election Night

Mon/10:34am

Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight.com (one of the true internet stars of Campaign 2008) says the states to keep an eye on will be:

1. Virginia

2. Colorado

3. Pennsylvania

4. Ohio

5. Nevada

Read why here.

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Does Obama Realistically Have a Shot at Arizona?

Mon/10:30 am

Marc Ambinder speculates & has some things to watch in the Grand Canyon State tomorrow night.

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Not All TN Polling Times Are the Same

Mon/10:16am

The election director in Polk County, TN just e-mailed NewsChannel9:

Please have Channel 9 broadcast Polk, Meigs, and McMinn County Polling Hours on Tuesday, November 4, 2008, to BEGIN AT 9:00 A.M. AND CLOSE AT 8:00 P.M. Your viewers hear Hamilton County hours and assume ours is the same. Your help will be greatly appreciated.

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“Phone Gap” in the Polls?

Mon/10:12am

“The cellphone polls have Obama ahead by an average of 9.4 points; the landline-only polls, 5.1 points.”

- Nate Silver, FiveThirtyEight.com

. Click here to view the embedded video.

Obama in Cincinnati

Mon/10:03am

Above: Obama in Cincinnati yesterday.

I’m keeping an eye out for clips of the candidates today, so check back later.

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Click here to view the embedded video.

McCain in Florida

Mon/10:01am

Above: a midnight rally in Miami, last night.

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Where the Race Stands

Mon/9:54am

Above: NBC’s Chuck Todd maps out McCain’s path to victory.

From Chuck & others at MSNBC’s First Read blog:

*** Obama has a clear lead: With just a day left until Election Day, Obama holds an eight-point lead over McCain among likely voters, 51%-43%, according to the final national NBC/WSJ poll before the election. That’s down slightly from Obama’s 53%-to-42% advantage from almost two weeks ago. Still, to put his current lead into perspective, the last NBC/WSJ survey before the 2004 presidential election showed Bush with a slim one-point edge over Kerry, 48%-47%. Bush went on to win that election, 51%-48%. Looking inside the crosstabs, Obama’s advantage is largely based on his overwhelming success with African Americans (winning them 90%-3%), Latinos (68%-27%), and 18 to 34 year olds (59%-38%). It’s about as solid of a three-legged support stool as any candidate could ask for. Obama also wins independents (48%-38%), blue-collar voters (51%-44%), suburban voters (49%-44%), and Catholics (49%-46%). McCain, meanwhile, has the advantage among evangelicals (78%-19%), those 65 and older (53%-40%), white men (54%-42%), and white women (48%-47%). One more thing: 30% say they’ve already voted, and those voters break by an identical 51%-43% margin. One thing that might keep the McCain folks somewhat hopeful about our numbers: We have Democrats with a +10 advantage on party ID; McCain’s team believes the electorate won’t produce that margin tomorrow.

*** Liking McCain but loving Obama: The poll also shows that McCain and Obama are pretty well liked by voters. McCain has a 47%-39% fav/unfav rating, while Obama’s is larger at 56%-35%. But what’s striking is the intensity gap — almost twice as many respondents (44%) rate Obama “very positive” than they do for McCain (24%). In short, McCain’s supporters like him, but Obama’s LOVE him. Think about that 44% number for a minute: Obama’s overall ballot number is 51%, meaning that 86% of Obama’s supporters have a VERY positive view of him. Not since Reagan in 1980 has a base of supporters loved its nominee so much. Also, for the second-straight NBC/WSJ poll, Palin has a net-negative fav/unfav (39%-48%), while Biden has a net-positive one (50%-30%). In fact, if you add up Obama’s and Biden’s favorable scores, you get 106; for McCain-Palin, it’s 86.

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Good Grief!

Mon/9:45am

Georgia has become THE state to watch.

Just look at those polls!

It’s quite possible (& I chose it as such in the pool) that it could be the state with the closest margin of victory for either candidate.

The Senate race, I believe, is still Saxby Chambliss’ to lose.. but that prediction gets upended, I think, with an Obama upset.

What do you think?

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Where They’re Headed in the Final Stretch

Mon/9:39am

From the AP: “UNDATED (AP) - As if today’s fever-pitch campaigning weren’t enough, the presidential candidates will break tradition and stump on Election Day. John McCain goes to Colorado and New Mexico. Barack Obama swings through Indiana before returning to Chicago. McCain rallied Latino voters just after midnight in Miami. Later this morning, he takes his message to Tampa, then to Tennessee, where he’ll be able to hit the Virginia media market. Pennsylvania, Indiana, New Mexico, Nevada and Arizona also will see McCain. Running mate Sarah Palin is trying to woo conservatives in Ohio, Missouri, Iowa, Colorado and Nevada. Obama’s route is geographically less demanding. He rallies this morning in Jacksonville, Fla., and later goes to Virginia and North Carolina. His running mate, Joe Biden, is going to Missouri, Ohio and Pennsylvania. Polls show the six closest states are Florida, Indiana, Missouri, North Carolina, Nevada and Ohio. The campaigns also are running aggressive ground games elsewhere, including Iowa, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Colorado and Virginia.”

Tennessee? Yes, McCain will be in Blountville. Read more here.

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What’s Gonna Happen?

Mon/9:32am

Click here for a post I added featuring questions for an election night pool that I’m taking part in.

Feel free to register your predictions in the comments section!

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When Polls Close Tomorrow

Mon/8:43am

Courtesy of the Huffington Post

This all gets tossed out the window if lines are long.. which may be why we may not know results of the states on that map until well after the polls are supposed to close..

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Click here to view the embedded video.

Joe the Plumber Questions Obama’s Patriotism

Mon/8:42am

Above: Joe the Plumber on the Fox News Channel over the weekend.

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Click here to view the embedded video.

Palin “Punk’d”

Mon/8:38am

Above: two Canadian comedians fool Palin into thinking she’s talking to the President of France.

. Click here to view the embedded video.

That’s a New One

Mon/8:35am

Above: South Carolina Senator Lindsay Graham, saying the polls demonstrate Barack Obama is “the virtual incumbent,” & thus can’t win in this environment that’s hungry for change.

. Click here to view the embedded video.

New Anti-Biden Ad: “Lies & Sighs”

Mon/8:28am

This ad is effective, but made slightly less so by the misspelling on the screen, 0:56 seconds in:

. Click here to view the embedded video.

Pennsylvania Republicans Bring Up Wright in New Ad

Mon/8:20am

(Warning: blasphemous language)

Why is Pennsylvania such a battleground? Voters don’t vote early there.

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Obamacan Update

Mon/8:13am

Roger Cohen:

“Lifelong Republicans turning to Obama has been one of the themes I’ve picked up in this campaign, ever since, back in January, I ran into Bryant Jones, an Idaho-raised Republican who’d volunteered for Obama in South Carolina.For Jones, it was disenchantment with “my-way-or-the-highway politics and the same old faces.””

“My-way-or-the-highway” politics. That’s a major reason President Bush was such a failure (read more of my thoughts on that here, in yesterday’s post). & I hope that both Democrats and Republicans heed the lesson in this: no matter who is president - but particularly if a President Obama finds himself with a Democratic majority in Congress - we can’t afford to discount a person’s idea because they aren’t a member of the right party. Obama will fall, & fall hard if he tries this. This is the singular reason President Bush did such a bad job - all recent presidents from all recent parties recognized they’d never succeed by paying attention to the needs of just one constituency. UPDATE: Mon/10:23am: More Obamacans explain themselves here & here. .

Why a McCain Win Would Be a Good Thing for Liberals

Mon/8:09am

The conservative New York Times columnist (who bears quite a bit of responsibility for bringing Sarah Palin to the world, not to mention the Iraq war) writes liberals should think the world has ended if John McCain wins, for reasons including:

“It would be a victory for an underdog. Liberals are supposed to like underdogs. McCain is a lonely guy standing up against an unprecedentedly well-financed, superorganized, ExxonMobil-like Obama juggernaut. A McCain upset victory would be a classic liberal happy ending.”

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Why She’s Failed to Catch Fire

Mon/8:02am

Of course she’s caught fire among members of the Republican base. But she’s certainly not winning over independents or moderate Republicans (scroll down for a new poll for more on that).

Peter Beinart suggests it may be that her appearance came at the end of the ‘Culture War:”

“Why has America turned on Sarah Palin? Obviously, her wobbly television interviews haven’t helped. Nor have the drip, drip of scandals from Alaska, which have tarnished her reformist image. But Palin’s problems run deeper, and they say something fundamental about the political age being born. Palin’s brand is culture war, and in America today culture war no longer sells. The struggle that began in the 1960s — which put questions of racial, sexual and religious identity at the forefront of American politics — may be ending. Palin is the end of the line.” .

Strategic Strengths & Weaknesses

Mon/7:57am

Great summary of what went right for Obama & wrong for McCain from E.J. Dionne:

ON McCAIN:

“In state after state during the primaries, McCain drew heavily on the votes of independents, moderates and Republicans who were unhappy with Bush. But instead of carrying on as the un-Bush who defied conservative orthodoxy, McCain embraced the right for fear of losing it. He chose Sarah Palin as his running mate, which finally earned him cries of approval from the GOP base but sent moderate voters scurrying Obama’s way.”"

ON OBAMA:

“He saw an opening for a young African American senator with brief Washington experience, realizing that the very unlikeliness of his candidacy would enhance its attractiveness.

He did more than give Americans a chance to ease the burdens of race. He invited them to embrace his very newness and thereby move past the 1960s, the ’80s, the ’90s and the Bush era all at once. “It’s time to turn the page,” Obama would say, and there were many pages Americans wanted to turn.

His post-everything candidacy, wrapped in a powerful rhetoric of hope, was immensely attractive to the young. They became the happy warriors of campaign manager David Plouffe’s meticulously organized national machine. It worked its magic in neighborhoods never before blessed with even a precinct captain.”

Pretty much the race, in a nutshell.

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ABC Poll: He’s a Net Positive, She’s a Net Negative

Mon/7:53am

From the Washington Post:

Respondents’ reactions to Sarah Palin, the GOP vice presidential nominee, are also closely linked to how much they factor age into their preferences: Sixty percent of those who said age is an important consideration said Palin lowers the odds that they will vote for the GOP ticket. Overall, nearly half of all respondents said they are less likely to vote for McCain because she is on the ticket, a sharp increase from previous polls.

By contrast, Sen. Joseph R. Biden Jr. is a net positive for Obama, even as nearly six in 10 respondents said the senator from Delaware does not influence their views one way or the other.

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ABC Poll: McCain’s ‘Socialist’ Attacks Aren’t Sticking

Mon/7:50am

From the Washington Post:

The new Washington Post-ABC News tracking poll puts Obama well out in front over Republican John McCain and finds that Obama has firmly reestablished his advantage on handling the economy, beaten back a challenge on taxes and has an edge in terms of perceptions about which candidate would better deal with an unexpected major crisis.

The McCain campaign, meanwhile, has countered with improved outreach into the tossup states, neutralizing what had been a big advantage for the Democrat 10 days ago. More than a third of all voters in the six states The Post calls “up for grabs” — Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Montana, Missouri and Indiana — said they have heard from the McCain campaign in the past week. That is up sharply from the third week of October and on par with the number who have been contacted by Obama’s campaign.

Obama and McCain roughly split the vote in the six states combined — 51 percent back Obama, and 47 percent support McCain. Overall in the tracking poll, Obama holds an 11-point advantage, at the top end of the seven-to-11-point range he has held since the final presidential debate in mid-October.”

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Live from New York

Mon/7:39am:

Watch McCain’s funny Saturday Night Live appearance here. Check this Vote08 post to see a clip of an earlier SNL McCain appearance (he sings Streisand!).

UPDATE/Mon-10:09am

James Fallows says this SNL appearance shows that McCain has accepted defeat.

Post from: The Blog Formerly Known As Vote '08

“The Best Race I Ever Covered“

I think David Broder speaks for us all.

Essential reading from the dean of the Washington Press Corps here.

“It’s been so rich with precedent and incident — and so very, very long — that we have, if anything, undervalued and even lost sight of its significance at times. In these final hours there’s some sense in pausing, pulling back and taking the broad measure of a contest that’s sure to affect not only this country’s civic life but also its emotional and psychological landscape for some time to come.” - Frank Bruni, the NY Times

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Commentary: Why Was He Such a Failure?

[before reading any further: check out this post, in which historian Doris Kearnes Goodwin outlines what makes a great president 'great.']

As much as the right would like to avoid it, 2008 most certainly a referendum on the policies of George W. Bush. He has always had a core of support (& I strongly suspect those hardcore supporters also find themselves rooting hard for Sarah Palin right now), but has had the lowest & most drawn-out approval rating of any modern president.

Why?

President Bush failed as a president because of his inability to adapt to what the times required. & as Scott McClellan famously said in his tell-all earlier this year, his administration conducted business in a “permanent campaign” mode.

President Bush governed on a binary basis. Binary could mean assigning everything a “0″ or a “1″ .. or one could look at it like an on/off switch. The administration either catered to the “1s,” those who comprised the administration, or those who would keep that administration in power either in public opinion or the ballot box, & did the opposite to the “0s,” which at the start of his administration meant anyone who voted for Al Gore (almost 50% of the nation). This ‘binary’ policy applied to foreign policy (”you’re either with us or against us”) & domestic policy (”anyone who disagrees with us aren’t true patriots & want the United States to fail”).

No president before Bush ran the White House so full-throttle in this direction. & only in the last couple of years (roughly since the 2006 congressional elections which reputed this style of government) has George W. Bush begun to reverse this approach’s catastrophic effects.

Bill Clinton was forced to declare “the era of big government is over” after his party’s resounding defeat in the 1994 congressional elections.

George H.W. Bush was forced to renege on his “no new taxes” pledge when it was clear that there was no other option to keep the budget out of the red.

Ronald Reagan had to sit down & talk with Democratic congressional leaders to work out compromises on the budget, tax rates, & election reform.

President Nixon created the Environmental Protection Administration, among other departments that are now viewed by the right as ‘liberal causes.’

My point is that every President necessarily has to bend with the times. Compromises were made for the overall good of the country, even though it meant that any particular president’s ideological beliefs would take a hit.

Not so with President Bush. He was not a president who surrounded himself with people who challenged his assumptions enough. He often “went with his gut” in making decisions, rather than glean empirical data or alternate points of view.

Again, the President has recently turned back on this “black & white” view of the world, & things in many areas of the world have improved. Iraq. North Korea. Iran. We are now involved in negotiations with all three countries, which were earlier deemed ‘the axis of evil.’

We are starting to see a military policy that recognizes that those who practice Islam do not all feel the same way about things, an assumption as silly as assuming the same for all Christians.

This year, thankfully, we are turning the page on a dark chapter in the history of the American presidency. It’s as if Herbert Hoover were elected after the stock market crashed, or James Buchanan were president after the Civil War started.

Either men running for president now would have served us far better in the last 8 years.. John McCain especially. & that’s why part of the Shakespearean tragedy that is John McCain most poignant is the fact that McCain had a decent shot at the presidency back in 2000, right after he beat George W. Bush in the New Hampshire primary.

But what happened? Those who favored George W. Bush’s rise to power set in motion an ugly & destructive campaign in the state of South Carolina. McCain’s loss there effectively dashed his hopes for realizing his destiny as the 43rd presidency of the United States.

That in and of itself is tragic. But even more so is the fact that those very forces that kept McCain down 8 years ago joined his campaign late this summer, & have been running it ever since. Considering the personal integrity I have seen in this man for 8 years now, McCain truly struck up a deal with the devil. Everything that happened afterward - the Palin choice, the ‘lipstick on a pig’ distraction, the erraticness of McCain’s campaign of the week of the bailout bill, the branding of Obama as a ’socialist Marxist what-have-you’ - is from the playbook of those who have been in power for the past 8 years.

I suggest making your choice based on how you feel things have been run for the past 8 years. If you are leaning McCain, you have to take a leap of faith that he will upon election immediately eschew these forces at work & become a President who doesn’t put a party’s success over the country’s. & if you are leaning Obama, you have to take a leap of faith that the executive powers that were expanded by an order of magnitude in the last 8 years will not be continued under the leadership of a president from a different party.

No matter who your choice is, I believe that above all else, your vote should be based on which candidate - & as you can read above, an argument can be made for both - would run the nation in a manner that does not resemble the management style of George W. Bush.

That’s my opinion, & you’re free to disagree. Scroll down & leave a comment if you have anything to say. All viewpoints are welcome.

Gleeful & Glum

From the AP:

“That smiling guy walking down the street? Odds are he’s a Barack Obama backer. The grouchy looking one? Don’t ask, and don’t necessarily count on him to vote next week, either. Supporters of John McCain, long less enthusiastic than Obama’s, have become increasingly glum about the presidential campaign in recent weeks, according to an Associated Press-Yahoo News poll released Saturday.”

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Click here to view the embedded video.

Above: home-video from an Obama rally in Pueblo, Colorado yesterday.

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Click here to view the embedded video.

Above: McCain in Newport News, Virginia yesterday.

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Click here to view the embedded video.

Above: home-video of Biden at BGCU yesterday.

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Click here to view the embedded video.

Above: home-video from a Palin rally in Glenn Allen, Virginia yesterday.

Post from: The Blog Formerly Known As Vote '08

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Click here to view the embedded video.

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***Reminder: You Have Until 5pm Today to Vote Early in North Carolina***

Early voting’s been extended, too; read more about it here.

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Obama in Nevada

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McCain & Ah-nold

Above: Columbus, Ohio, last night.

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Palin in Pennsylvania

Above: a home-video from Latrobe, last night.

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Biden Home-State Stumping

Above: Joe Biden in Delaware, at his alma-mater

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Chutes & Ladders in the Senate

The Tennessee Senate race (between Alexander & Tuke) has nowhere near the excitement as Georgia’s or North Carolina’s on Tuesday night.

But you should pay close attention to the degree of GOP losses in the Senate.

The more losses there are, the more freshman Tennessee Senator Bob Corker has to gain on the Senate hierarchical ladder. He has the potential to climb a few ‘bonus’ rungs if experienced GOPers like Alaska’s Ted Stevens or NC’s Elizabeth Dole or KY’s Mitch McConnell find defeat.

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Unintentionally Transparent?

Senator Saxby Chambliss, (R) Georgia, yesterday:

“There has always been a rush to the polls by African-Americans early,” he said at the square in Covington, a quick stop on a bus tour as the campaign entered its final week. He predicted the crowds of early voters would motivate Republicans to turn out. “It has also got our side energized, they see what is happening,” he said.

Careful with that “our side,” Senator.

Check the latest polls in the GA Senate race here.

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How He’ll Win, by McCain’s Chief Strategist

Read Rick Davis’ memo here, with Marc Ambinder’s observations in italics.

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McCain’s Horrible Month

Charles Blow recaps.

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Any Surprises Left?

Several pollsters weigh in here.

Keep in mind the impact of any “late surprise” is diminished by early voting.

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A McCain Endorsement the Obama People Were Happy to Disseminate

Above: Dick Cheney stumps for McCain in Wyoming.

Post from: The Blog Formerly Known As Vote '08

Just 5 Days to Go!

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***Reminder: TODAY’s your LAST DAY to vote early in Tennessee & FRIDAY is your LAST DAY to vote early in Georgia!***

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Straddling the Eras of Slavery & Black Presidential Candidates

Above: 109 year old Texas resident Amanda Jones, daughter of a slave, who just cast her vote for Barack Obama for President.

Regardless of whom you hope will win the White House, this truly is an amazing achievement for our country.

Obama in the Sunshine State

[scroll down to see Biden, McCain & Palin]

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Are Late-Undecided Voters McCain’s ‘Lifeboat?’

Dick Morris thinks the answer is yes.

Nate Silver thinks the answer is no.

This article takes a look at last-week undecided trends from past elections.

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Palin Stumps in Rush’s Hometown

..that would be Cape Girardeau, Missouri. Scroll down to see McCain in Ohio.

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Biden, Like Palin, in the Show-Me State

[Scroll down to see Sarah Palin & John McCain.]

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Can He Keep His Mouth Shut Until Tuesday?

The Politico weighs the pros & cons of Biden’s contributions to the campaign trail.

Also: the Obama campaign tries to clarify Biden’s “mark my words” comment in a new ad:

Click here to view the embedded video.

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Racism Knows No Party

Read examples of racism from the left this election season here.

But whatever you do, don’t pigeonhole rednecks:

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TR’s a Socialist!!!

Read a letter to the New York Times from 1908 that brands McCain’s favorite president with his current favorite perjorative for his opponent.

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Pro-McCain Robocalls Now Hitting Homes in…Arizona

Read more about it here.

Is McCain really in that much trouble in his home state? Check the average of polls here. The Obama camp claims their internal polls are tightening.

Personally, I don’t think he’s going to lose his home state. But it may be the ultimate margin of victory that McCain’s trying to manipulate.

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McCain Ad: He’s Not Ready…Yet

What’s with the “yet” in this ad? Bob Cesca has a theory.

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Is Palin Looking Down the Road to 2012?

It would appear so, based on the clip above. A loss will have the conventional wisdom coronating her as the 2012 front-runner. However, there may be a few in the GOP who have been holding their tongues until after the ballots have been cast.

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Pizza Politics

From Domino’s Pizza, via Marc Ambinder. I sent this out to the newsroom & got a funny response from operations engineer John Creel, whose text below is in red:

Republicans

— Spend more per order than other consumers.

(*WITH THE OIL MONEY PROFITS WE CAN SPEND MORE.)

— They rely on credit cards to pay more than other consumers.

(*DOESN’T EVERYBODY’S HAVE A AMERICAN EXPRESS GOLD CARD.)

– They tend to order two large pizzas at a time, and they’re usually
specialty pizzas.

(*EVERYTHING WORTH HAVING COMES IN 2′S. WE ALL GOTTA PAIR DON’T WE.)
– They are more likely to order online, and more likely to pick up their
orders.

(*LIMOS ARE GREAT FOR PICKING UP PIZZAS, ESPECIALLY WHEN LOBBYIST ARE
BUYING.)

Democrats

— Rely on delivery more than Republicans.

(*DELIVERY BOY IS A JUST A GUY TRYING TO MAKE A BUCK. WE’RE SPREADING THE WEALTH WITH HIM.)

– Pay cash more than other consumers.

(*CREDIT CARDS LEAVE A PAPER TRAIL TO FOLLOW. WE DON’T LIKE ANYTHING TRACEABLE BACK TO US.)

– Like more variety with their orders, opting for side items, chicken and
beverages more than Republicans.

(*WE LIKE OUR PIZZA LIKE OUR POLITICS … LOTS OF VARIETY.)

(*REPUBLICANS CALL THE SIDE ITEMS PORK, BUT WE PUT THEM ON OUR
CONGRESSIONAL BILLS AND VOTERS LOVE THEM.)

Funny stuff, John! Thanks!

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‘Joe’ a No-Show

Oops. Maybe he was recording his album?

More from McCain’ speech in Defiance, Ohio:

Click here to view the embedded video.

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North Carolina Senate Race Gets Ugly

The ad above may be remembered as one of the worst in the country for the year 2008. It’s also a sign of how much trouble Elizabeth Dole finds herself in. The worst part about the ad is the woman saying “there is no God” at the end which is NOT Kay Hagan, Dole’s opponent. No politician who has integrity - on either side of the aisle - would do something like that.

…but how much of the ad is true? Click here for a fact-check.

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Georgia Senate Race Called a ”Tossup”

Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight.com speculates on the spellbinding Georgia Senate race:

“Very quick observation about Georgia’s senate race, which along with California’s Proposition 8, may be the thing to watch on Election Night in the event of an Obama blowout. The polls, from what I can tell, are showing a fairly high undecided vote among the African-American population. Rasmussen’s most recent poll, which had Saxby Chambliss up by two, shows that 12 percent of black voters are undecided in the senate race. Were those voters to split 4:1 to Jim Martin, that would be worth a net of around 2 points to him, making the race a tie. SurveyUSA, likewise, shows a higher rate of undecideds among black voters (7%) than among whites (3%).

Related thought: it’s very difficult to imagine what a Chambliss-Obama voter looks like. It’s pretty easy to imagine what a McCain-Martin voter looks like. So if the Georgia polls have Obama down by 4 or 5 points, but Martin down by 2 or 3 points (as they do), something doesn’t quite seem right; I’d think the gap should be a bit wider.

Basically, I think this race is a true toss-up rather than a Lean R. African-American voters might be unfamiliar with Jim Martin, who didn’t become the nominee until August, but the ‘D’ beside his name is worth a lot..”
.

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Local Early Voting Report

Above: at long last, the folks at Freedom Blogging have finally enabled me to post videos from NewsChannel9.com here. Above: NewsChannel9’s Erica Green has an early voting report.

The Hamilton County Election Commission says as of Wednesday, 61576 people have voted early.

Reminder: TODAY’s your LAST DAY to vote early in Tennessee & FRIDAY is your LAST DAY to vote early in Georgia!

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McCain Matching Obama in Battleground State Ad Buys

From the Boston Globe:

“Ad spending and ad placement data obtained from Democratic and Republican operatives show that in the closing days of the campaign the Republican voice has grown louder in states such as Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Virginia and Pennsylvania.

For instance, Obama had been scheduled to buy about $2.5 million in Florida ads for the last week of the campaign. McCain is now set to spend about $1.6 million and the Republican National Committee added $1.5 million to their buy in the state this week. Obama appears to have added more weight to his ads since.”

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New Battleground State Polls

From Time magazine:

Pennsylvania: Obama 55, McCain 43
North Carolina: Obama 52, McCain 46
Nevada: Obama 52, McCain 45
Ohio: Obama 51, McCain 47
Arizona: McCain 53, Obama 46

Find out more info, including male/female & making over $50K/under $50K preferences here.

How about those Arizona numbers? Here’s another one, from NBC, that’s no doubt making McCain nervous. [Remember, Al Gore infamously lost his home state in 2000.]

.

What Obama’s ‘Infomercial‘ Reminded Me Of Most

Think about it: what ad since 1984 can that infomercial compare to, besides this one?

Nate Silver adds:

“Discuss: all else being equal, the most optimistic candidate wins the election. And that’s definitely the mood that Obama is going for with this thing.”

I also would point out that not mentioning John McCain or President Bush was stroke of genius. It makes it harder for the right to criticize the ad because of this.

.

Whoops:

Above: a screen grab from Fox News yesterday.

This is not the first time Fox’s graphics department has gotten it wrong.

.

Campaign Quiz Time

Test your 2008 campaign knowledge here, & answer questions that include

2. Which one of these statements did Barack Obama make while campaigning?

A) “I’ve now been in 57 states. I think one left to go.”

B) “Most of all, I believe in you, Nebraska. Or South Dakota. Or wherever I am.”

C) “We’ve come so far since we began this campaign 21 years ago.”

Here’s a trivia question I’d add: which two presidential candidates stopped in Chattanooga during the primary season? (answer here)

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[below: the latest writings about the state of the conservative movement, as expressed by conservatives]

George Will:

From the invasion of Iraq to the selection of Sarah Palin, carelessness has characterized recent episodes of faux conservatism. Tuesday’s probable repudiation of the Republican Party will punish characteristics displayed in the campaign’s closing days.

Some polls show that Palin has become an even heavier weight in John McCain’s saddle than his association with George W. Bush. Did McCain, who seems to think that Palin’s never having attended a “Georgetown cocktail party” is sufficient qualification for the vice presidency, lift an eyebrow when she said that vice presidents “are in charge of the United States Senate”?

.

Bill & Barack

Click here to view the embedded video.

Above: Bill Clinton & Barack Obama, together on stage for the first time, last night after the ‘infomercial‘ aired.

Post from: The Blog Formerly Known As Vote '08

JUST 6 MORE DAYS

The Infomercial

I thought it was well-done. It certainly beats Ross Perot’s informercial from 1992.

He kept it positive - didn’t mention the word “Bush” once.

Watch & tell me what you think.

Read McCain’s ‘prebuttal’ to the infomercial here.

A lot of you have voted already. As of Monday, more than 50,000 people have voted in Hamilton County.

Which way are early voters leaning? Marc Ambinder:

Obama leads by 16 points among likely voters, by 17 points among independents, by 13 points among men, by 20 points among women, is tied among whites, and is up eight among white Catholics. Of the 15 percent of the sample who’ve already voted, Obama leads by 19 points (although this subsample has a fairly large MoE). 74% of Obama’s backers say they support him “strongly,” which is 20 points higher than the percentage who say the same about their support for McCain.

Click here for the full Pew results, as of Tuesday.

Here’s a site where you can see the early voting numbers already in from around the country. Very useful.

From that site I glean:

The number of early voters so far in Tennessee is 45% of the total number of votes in 2004. (wow.)

&, 36.4% of the ENTIRE number of votes cast in Georgia in 2004 have been cast already this year. (again, wow.)

The Peach state is turning into one of THE states to watch this year - & I had written that state off months ago, back when Bob Barr’s Georgia support started dropping off.

But now - look at this chart over at Pollster.com. We have ourselves a real nail-biter, folks.

& not just the presidential race. The battle for Saxby Chambliss’ Senate seat remains intense.

The two latest polls come from polling firms that lean either way.

The left-leaning InsiderAdvantage poll has Saxby Chambliss & Jim Martin at 46-44%, That same poll also shows McCain leading by just 1 point).

The right-leaning Strategic Vision poll has Chambliss up by 2, & McCain up by 6.

& it’s possible that Georgia may be the last Senate race called - as in called several weeks after election night. MSNBC’s First Read blog explains:

“If Martin wins, he’ll have Obama to thank because the surge in African-American turnout is clearly benefiting the Democrat. By the way, Georgia could be the state that is the final race called in the country. Why? The state has that quirky runoff law, and a third-party candidate in the race might hold one of the major party candidates under 50%. The last time Georgia hosted a Senate runoff was the last time the country elected a new Democratic president: 1992, when the election of Clinton ended up helping the Republicans pull the Senate upset (Paul Coverdell defeated Wyche Fowler). This time, however, Republicans fear that an Obama victory will only energize African Americans in the runoff and make Chambliss’ path to victory even more difficult.”

Speaking of African-American turnout, it’s huge in Georgia - check it out. Georgia’s Secretary of State reports that 35% of early voters are African-American - more than double the percentage of the state’s population.

& there seems to be a correlation between a state’s African-American voting population & percentage of early voter turnout. FiveThirtyEight.com’s Nate Silver has the details here. In short, the higher the percentage of blacks in a state, the higher early voter turnout is. The states with the highest turnout are Georgia, North Carolina & Louisiana.

Can McCain count on voters who make up their minds in this final week? The trends (from Pollster.com) from past Presidential elections, in terms of their numbers, don’t look promising:

Click this link (again, to Pollster.com) to find out which way those last-minute voters swing.

.

But still, interestingly, yet probably unsurprisingly, Obama still faces a major disadvantage with voters down here in that long-GOP stronghold, the South, per ABC News:

Obama is outperforming any Democrat back to Jimmy Carter among white voters, getting 45 percent to McCain’s 52 percent. But in the South, it is a very different story. Obama fares worse among Southern whites than any Democrat since George McGovern in 1972.

Whites in the East and West tilt narrowly toward Obama (he’s up 8 and 7 points, respectively), and the two run about evenly among those in the Midwest. By contrast, Southern whites break more than 2 to 1 for McCain, 65 percent to 32 percent.

.

SIX DAYS.

Barack Obama

His informercial appears on most of network TV tonight… except for ABC (read why here). Needless to say, I’m ashamed of my parent network about this. It’s airing “Pushing Daisies” instead, & running some frankly offensive promos about it.

Click here to view the embedded video.

Above: wet, wet wet conditions in Chester, Pennsylvania on Tuesday. Doesn’t look fun at all.

.

Click here to view the embedded video.

Above: Obama making calls to undecided voters in Colorado.

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Has Obama fudged his “no tax increases for those making under $250,000″ promise this week? Marc Ambinder does some fact-checking.

.

Michelle Obama appeared on Jay Leno Monday. Click here to watch.

.

Why the Right’s ‘Kitchen Sink’ Philosophy is Failing

From the Toot:

“…once you’ve made a narrative choice, you do have to stick with it - you can’t just keep bouncing around, or people become confused. If you are telling the story of a scary vampire, you can’t decide in chapter 2 that he’s also 500 feet tall and radioactive and bent on destroying Tokyo, in chapter 3 that he is actually a giant man-eating shark, and in chapter 4 that he is all this and a super-terrorist trying to plant a nuclear bomb in Los Angeles. All of these things are, indeed, scary, but taken together they add up to a muddle.

This is the problem. It’s not just the McCain campaign’s problem - although their inability to pick a narrative and stick to it is a special kind of inexcusable - it’s a problem for the entire wingnut noise machine. Obama is a Marxist Muslim Arab Jesus Black White Terrorist Technocrat Racist Do-Gooder Liberal FDR Stalin Hilter Commie Fascist Gay Womanizing Naive Cynical Insider Noob Boring Radical Unaccomplished Elite Slick Gaffe-Prone Pedophile Pedophile-Seducing Liberation Theology Atheist Etc. & Anti-Etc. with a bunch of scary friends from - wait for it! - the Nineteen Hundred And Sixties. It makes no sense. It’s a jumble sale of fears and scary associations from 50 years of wingnut witch hunts and smear campaigns, a flea market of pre-owned and antique resentments, and if one does detect a semi-consistent 1960’s motif running through it all, that’s because that’s when most of these ideas were coined.”

.

.

John McCain

Click here to view the embedded video.

Above: at a joint rally with Sarah Palin in Hershey Pennsylvania on Tuesday.

He also appeared in North Carolina..

…but, interestingly, without incumbent GOP Senator Elizabeth Dole. (this may be why)

.

Speaking of absences, someone’s face appears to be conspicuously absent from his own party’s website.

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Is the ‘Divided Government’ Argument Going to Work?

It’s the major card McCain has left to play. But Newsweek’s Andrew Romano is pessimistic. Former Bush staffer Peter Wehner hsays the party needs to return to its reformist roots [which, I'd add, is what John McCain should have pushed harder for - challenging his party to return to its fundamental principles - instead of blatantly pandering to its base, which has spent the past year essentially rooting for the status quo, or at least is blind to why the status quo is in such a sorry state].

Here’s a ‘Silver Lining’ for Republicans, though:

Single-party government rarely works for very long. It tends to overreach when there are no limits to those in power (see Congress/President Bush, 2002-2006). If this plays out, that will bode well for the beginning of a comeback for the now-battered GOP. [though I will say that if you sat on your hands & approved of how things were run under Republican leadership, you have a smaller rhetorical leg to stand on.]

& here’s a reason Democrats might prefer divided government:

['divided' here being less than a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate]

If this crazy year ends the way the trends are looking - that Obama will be elected - Obama’s historical standing would improve if he brought about change with the help & support of the minority party.

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The Keystone State Conundrum

Why is McCain behind Obama in the Pennsylvania polls? Michael Barone hazards a guess:

“My hypothesis is that that is because places like the Philly suburbs are places where the recent decline in household wealth has been most conspicuous. Housing prices mean a lot more to you when your house started off at $400,000 and declined to $290,000 than they did when you started off (as may be typical of Scranton or a blue-collar town in metro Pittsburgh) at $140,000 and declined to $110,000. Newspaper coverage of our current economic distress focuses on the very poor (like a recent Washington Post story on North Carolina, which focused on an ex-convict in a cheap motel in Charlotte), but the people who are getting hurt most visibly in their lifelong project of accumulating wealth are the more affluent. They’re the ones whose house values have most visibly and spectacularly declined, and whose 401(k) accounts and stock portfolios have tanked in the last few months as well. Folks in Scranton or in the cheap motel in Charlotte didn’t expect to live comfortably ever after off their increased house values, 401(k)’s, and Merrill Lynch accounts; a $700 monthly check from Social Security is about what they have long expected and that’s not in danger (yet). Folks in the Philly suburbs did expect to live comfortably off such assets.”

& he concludes

“The irony here is that voters motivated by anger at the decline in their wealth seem about to elect a president who has promised to embark on wealth-destroying policies.”

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What Hath Karl Rove Wrought?

The exodus of a chunk of voters - Libertarians - who traditionally vote Republican, that’s what.

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Joe Biden

Click here to view the embedded video.

Here’s a view-from-the-crowd at a Joe rally in New Port Richey, Florida on Monday. He remained in Florida on Tuesday.

Sarah Palin

Click here to view the embedded video.

Above: at a rally in Hershey, Pennsylvania, appearing with McCain.

.

Sadly, there appears to be quite a few reports of ‘ugly Americanism‘ at her rallies, & that’s a shame for Palin & her supporters, who in my opinion should quickly & forcefully speak out about those who would tarnish her image, especially if you are hoping she becomes the Republican party’s standard-bearer after the election.

That’s it for now! I know it’s a lot to digest, but please feel free to comment on anything mentioned above. ALL views are welcome here.

& check back later in the day, as I’ll provide more info in this post. Let me know what you think of the ‘one-post’ format. I think I’ll stick to doing it this way through the home stretch.

Post from: The Blog Formerly Known As Vote '08

[above: Obama the Cabbage Patch candidate]

Above: the “One Week” closing argument speech given in Canton, Ohio yesterday.

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Figuring Out What Those Undecideds Will Do

The Weekly Standard’s Arnon Mishkin dubs it “the Obama Effect” in an attempt to crack the nut that is this year’s undecided voters:

Where there is a perception that there is a “socially acceptable” choice, respondents who do not articulate it, are likely not to agree with it. Are they lying? Or just genuinely torn about taking that route or another? I am not going to psychoanalyze what is going on in their heads, but in the end, the pattern tends to be that those undecided voters vote against that “socially acceptable” choice.

Nate over at FiveThirtyEight.com refutes this theory by Bill Greener at Salon.com, who says Obama cannot win if his numbers are under 50%, & he uses Tennessee’s 2006 Senate race as an example:

“Problem #2: Greener cherry-picks his data in literally every race. He isn’t even subtle about it. Here is a good example:

How about Tennessee, where black Democrat Harold Ford was up against white Republican Bob Corker for Republican Bill Frist’s old U.S. Senate seat? Harold Ford did slightly better than Steele and Blackwell. The day before the election, he was within a point of Corker, 47 to 48 with 5 percent undecided, according to OnPoint Polling. On Nov. 7, Corker got 50.7 percent of the vote, Ford got 48 and an assortment of independents took 1.3 percent. Ford was able to pick up one out of every five undecided voters.

OnPoint was the only polling firm to show the Tennessee race within 1 point on the eve of the election. Meanwhile, Gallup showed a 3-point lead for Corker, Rasmussen showed a 4-point lead for Corker, SurveyUSA and Pollmetrix showed 5-point leads, and Mason-Dixon showed a 12-point lead. Corker eventually won by 2.7 points, smaller than the margin predicted by all firms but OnPoint.”

If you’re interested in trying to figure out 2008’s undecideds, I recommend clicking on all the links provided above.

What do you think?

Post from: The Blog Formerly Known As Vote '08

[above: Cabbage Patch Candidate Joe Biden. No, I don't think it looks like him either.]

Click here to view the embedded video.

Above: in New Port Richey, Florida, yesterday.

More Local TV Appearances

On Monday Biden spoke with a local news anchor in Kentucky (watch it here), who asks him about what he plans to do with his Senate seat if elected, & comments on a poll revealing a good chunk of folks in the Bluegrass state still (falsely) believe Barack Obama is a muslim.

Speaking of local TV interviews, Barbara West, the WFTV anchor in Florida whose now famous interview of Joe Biden has been seen by just about everyone on the planet, interviewed John McCain yesterday. Click here to watch, & then come back & tell me what you thought of how she handled McCain vs. Biden. Also, click here to join the discussion on whether or not she was biased.

Biden was in North Carolina yesterday, courting the youth vote. He was in Greensboro & Greenville - again, like we said with Palin, probably the closest any candidate will come to our area.

Post from: The Blog Formerly Known As Vote '08

[above: Cabbage Patch Sarah Palin]

Click here to view the embedded video.

Click here to view the embedded video.

Above: in Asheville, North Carolina. Drink it up, Tennessee Valley Palin fans - this is likely the closest she will come to our area. Also, note: she’s wearing jeans.

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Stick This Story Back in the Closet

The finger-pointing surrounding “Clothing-gate” continues. Bad idea all around. If you are rooting for this ticket to win, you need to do your part by stopping talking about it - it’s sucking oxygen from your message.

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Palin Pro & Con

Elaine Lafferty, former editor of Ms. Magazine (wait! don’t click away!) & a Democrat (I promise! keep reading!), calls Palin a ’smart’ candidate (see?):

“Now by “smart,” I don’t refer to a person who is wily or calculating or nimble in the way of certain talented athletes who we admire but suspect don’t really have serious brains in their skulls. I mean, instead, a mind that is thoughtful, curious, with a discernable pattern of associative thinking and insight. Palin asks questions, and probes linkages and logic that bring to mind a quirky law professor I once had. Palin is more than a “quick study”; I’d heard rumors around the campaign of her photographic memory and, frankly, I watched it in action. She sees. She processes. She questions, and only then, she acts. What is often called her “confidence” is actually a rarity in national politics: I saw a woman who knows exactly who she is.”

I’ve never felt the woman wasn’t smart. Those who call her dumb are revealing their own prejudices. I do, however, believe she has unwisely stuck to the politics of division (”pro-America parts of the country”) that has helped to (not 100%, but certainly a decent fraction) put her ticket where it is right now.

So that’s a liberal woman defending Palin.

Now, to provide ‘balance’ to this post, let’s check in with a conservative man who can’t stand her. Take it away, Christopher Hitchens:

“This is what the Republican Party has done to us this year: It has placed within reach of the Oval Office a woman who is a religious fanatic and a proud, boastful ignoramus. Those who despise science and learning are not anti-elitist. They are morally and intellectually slothful people who are secretly envious of the educated and the cultured. And those who prate of spiritual warfare and demons are not just “people of faith” but theocratic bullies. On Nov. 4, anyone who cares for the Constitution has a clear duty to repudiate this wickedness and stupidity.”

What do you think?

Post from: The Blog Formerly Known As Vote '08

Above: in Denver, before a crowd of 100,000 people on Sunday.

BREAKING: Assassination plot with Tennessee ties foiled

WASHINGTON (AP) - The Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives says it’s broken up a plot by skinheads to launch an attack on a black high school and to assassinate Barack Obama.
According to court records, two neo-Nazi skinheads planned to rob a gun store and target an unnamed high school in Tennessee. There, it’s alleged, the two planned to shoot 88 black people and decapitate another 14. The numbers 88 and 14 are said to have significance among white supremacists.
The two then allegedly planned to kill Obama, despite their doubts they could pull off an assassination.
They’ve been identified as 20-year old Daniel Cowart of Bells, Tennessee, and 18-year-old Paul Schlesselman, of West Helena, Arkansas. Both are being held without bond. They allegedly had a rifle, a sawed-off shotgun and three pistols when they were arrested.
The Obama campaign hasn’t commented on the arrests.

Thank goodness for the ATF.

One tidbit from the news release, which I just read: AFTER they shot up a school, killing 102 people, AFTER they spray-painted their car with racist symbols & slogans, they were going to get to Obama as fast as they could, & kill him shooting from their car’s windows - all while wearing top hats & white tuxedos.

Also in Today’s Episode: Obama makes his ‘closing argument’ in Ohio…has he written his inaugural address already?…taking voters’ temperatures in FL, WV, & KY…What would Teddy Roosevelt say about Obama?…

Making the ‘Closing Argument’

To be delivered later today in Canton, Ohio:

“…as I’ve said from the day we began this journey all those months ago, the change we need isn’t just about new programs and policies. It’s about a new politics - a politics that calls on our better angels instead of encouraging our worst instincts; one that reminds us of the obligations we have to ourselves and one another.

Part of the reason this economic crisis occurred is because we have been living through an era of profound irresponsibility. On Wall Street, easy money and an ethic of “what’s good for me is good enough” blinded greedy executives to the danger in the decisions they were making. On Main Street, lenders tricked people into buying homes they couldn’t afford. Some folks knew they couldn’t afford those houses and bought them anyway. In Washington, politicians spent money they didn’t have and allowed lobbyists to set the agenda. They scored political points instead of solving our problems, and even after the greatest attack on American soil since Pearl Harbor, all we were asked to do by our President was to go out and shop.

That is why what we have lost in these last eight years cannot be measured by lost wages or bigger trade deficits alone. What has also been lost is the idea that in this American story, each of us has a role to play. Each of us has a responsibility to work hard and look after ourselves and our families, and each of us has a responsibility to our fellow citizens. That’s what’s been lost these last eight years - our sense of common purpose; of higher purpose. And that’s what we need to restore right now.”

Check this post later in the day for video of the speech.

Has he already written his inaugural address?

Palin & McCain are charging that yes, he has, based on this article. In fact, he has not.

Florida Dispatch:

E.J. Dionne:

Florida, home to so many retirees, has a median age that is three years older than that of the nation, and seniors have been especially resistant to Obama.

As a result, said Alex Castellanos, a Republican consultant who has worked on statewide and congressional races here, “I thought for quite a while that McCain had his hands on this state.”

…

Then came the collapse of the stock market, which had an especially dramatic effect here. “You have seniors who are living what I call ‘no-margin-for-error lives,’ ” Castellanos said. “The slightest tremor in their lives just rocks them. . . . When this economic meltdown occurred, you saw a lot of seniors move.”

West Virginia Dispatch:

Ruth Marcus:

“…hours of interviews with voters — outside the Wal-Mart in Mingo, up the road in Logan County, and north of Charleston in the swing county of Jackson — illustrate Obama’s uphill climb and raise questions about similar voters in states such as Ohio and Pennsylvania. It does not take long to hear the worst rumors about Obama — or to wonder how the people repeating them would deal with the fact of an Obama presidency, if it comes to pass.

“If I do vote, it will be Republican,” said Charles Mount, a 31-year-old mechanic and registered Democrat. “There’s just something about Obama. You hear so much about him being a Muslim. I don’t personally believe that but I don’t know that. I’m not going to take a chance on the leader of our country.”

“If Barack Obama gets in, it basically will be giving our America away to whatever . . . ,” said Jamie Willis, 42, who voted for Clinton in the primary. Her husband, Brent Willis, 37, a contractor and registered Democrat, filled in the blank. “To be brutally honest with you, if Obama goes in there the [blacks] are going to go crazy — and I’m not a prejudiced person.”

Terry Sanders, a court clerk, said he “wouldn’t vote for Obama if he was running for dog catcher. His values are completely different from mine. Why’s he got a problem with the flag? He wouldn’t put his hand over his heart. It casts a lot of doubt about what kind of man is this fellow.”

These are not incendiary quotes cherry-picked from among multiple interviews or cajoled out of people reluctant to express a view. They came from the first eight people who stopped to answer my questions — of whom just one said she supported Obama, citing the backing of the mineworkers union.

Kentucky Dispatch:

From Pol Watchers:

“Despite heavy national media attention about Obama’s faith, more than half of likely Republican voters — 54 percent — and one of every four Democrats in the state do not know that the Democratic presidential nominee is a Christian, the poll found.

The poll showed that 14 percent of likely Kentucky voters — 28 percent of Republicans, 4 percent of Democrats and 11 percent of independents — think Obama adheres to the Muslim faith.”

As we saw back in August, many folks in Copper Hill, Tennessee, share that view - even though it’s incorrect, as Colin Powell tried to point out 2 Sundays ago.

What’s TR’s Take?

The New York Times takes some editorial liberties with actual recorded statements of the 26th President to offer commentary about the current race (click here for TR’s ‘take’ on McCain):

Q. What’s your impression of Barack Obama?

A. Unless I am greatly mistaken, the people have made up their mind that they wish some new instrument.

Q. You’re not afraid that he’s primarily a man of words? Like Woodrow Wilson, whom you once called a “Byzantine logothete”?

A. It is highly desirable that a leader of opinion in a democracy should be able to state his views clearly and convincingly.

Q. Not Mr. McCain’s strong point!

A. Some excellent public servants have not the gift at all, and must rely upon their deeds to speak for them; and unless the oratory does represent genuine conviction, based on good common sense and able to be translated into efficient performance, then the better the oratory the greater the damage to the public it deceives.

Post from: The Blog Formerly Known As Vote '08

Click here to view the embedded video.

Above: in Tacoma, Washington.

Today’s episode: Much more on that Florida TV anchor’s “hard-hitting” interview that left the candidate flustered.

Click here to view the embedded video.

Plenty more criticism (for both Biden & the anchor) of the now-infamous WFTV interview.

Read more here, here, here, here, & here. (which links are which? sorry - you’ll have to click on them all to find out. Remember, one of this blog’s missions is to get you to expand your media diet).

This certainly has become an “bias is in the eye of the beholder” moment.

Those on the right would like to paint this as Biden’s “Katie Couric” moment. My opinion: I don’t think so. It’s not like she ’stumped’ him.

The interviewer’s critics say she’s just “regurgitating Fox News talking points.” That could be correct - but she certainly has a 1st Amendment right to ask whatever she wants.

Would an interview go this way with any candidate on any side with an anchor or reporter here at NewsChannel 9? I won’t presume to speak for any of them. Like all of you, they each have their own views on politics, but all of them (admirably, I think) take great pains to be fair to all of our viewers. This business, if nothing else, teaches you to recognize & respect the diversity of opinions & outlooks out there. I will say I do know NewsChannel9’s anchors & reporters well enough to say each of them would be “tough but fair.”

To do otherwise (essentially shutting oneself off from a huge chunk of your desired audience) is nothing but self-defeating.

So is the woman above ‘tough?’ Yes.

But is she being ‘fair?’ Not to at least half her audience.

What do you think?

UPDATE: It’s been revealed that the anchor’s husband is a media consultant from the GOP. That, in my opinion, makes this far more distasteful.

UPDATE #2: I’ve asked my colleagues for comment on this story.

Melydia Clewell, our assignment editor, says:

“I do believe our staff does a great job trying to remain objective, fair and balanced. That said, reporters have actually asked to be un-assigned stories related to GOP/Dem candidates because they don’t believe they can keep their personal viewpoint from affecting the outcome of their reporting. At least they are aware of their biases, but I do hate that we have some folks who admittedly can not escape a partisan mindset.”

Tom Henderson, NewsChannel 9’s News Director (& my boss) says:

“NewsChannel 9’s journalists and manager-journalists rely on the Society of
Professional Journalists code of ethics for guidance in matters like this.
Here are a few of the directives the SPJ code gives to reporters:

— Examine their own cultural values and avoid imposing those values on others

— Avoid conflicts of interest, real or perceived.

— Remain free of associations and activities that may compromise integrity
or damage credibility.

— Disclose unavoidable conflicts.

— Deny favored treatment to advertisers and special interests and resist
their pressure to influence news coverage.

Ultimately it is up to viewers and website users to judge the credibility
of reporters and the newsrooms in which they work. NewsChannel 9 welcomes
scrutiny of our practices and methods. We are not perfect, but we do
strive to stay within the bounds of the SPJ code while going the exra mile
so that consumers of our news are more informed and better prepared.

You can read the entire code here: http://www.spj.org/ethicscode.asp
Tom Henderson
News Director
WTVC and newschannel9.com”

John Creel, WTVC Operations Engineer, says:

Because of her husbands job I’m less enthusiastic/impressed/ect. about her Q&A.
She could have been spouting off RNC talking points she didn’t develop on her own.
The questions however are still valid.  Someone should be asking those questions!

Fairness is like the feet of a drunk man, taking a field sobriety test, it varies
with the opinions of those percieving it.  It’s no longer the standard fromwhich we measure abnormalities or deviations.
ee cummings wrote a poem that applies.

“We sit around a ring and suppose

The secret sits in the middle and knows.”

Opinions have always surrounded the truth by hiding somewhere in the middle.

Indeed, John.

What do you think?

Post from: The Blog Formerly Known As Vote '08

Click here to view the embedded video.

above: the View’s Elisabeth Hasselbeck introduces Palin.

Click here to view the embedded video.

Palin addresses the clothing issue.(read more about it here)

This quote from that story linked above is telling:

“A senior adviser to John McCain told CNN’s Dana Bash that the comments about her wardrobe “were not the remarks we sent to her plane this morning.”

She’s going what’s known as “off the reservation.”

I understand her desire to ‘go there’ - it’s been the hot topic for several days now, & I’m sure she’s chomping at the bit to address it. But addressing it has its downside - mainly, that it dominates the news for another cycle, with just 9 days to go.

I suspect the McCain campaign is not very happy with her right now.

What do you think?

Is she the victim of sexism?

Or a hypocrite?

Post a comment & share your viewpoint!

UPDATE:

TAMPA, Fla. (AP) - Sarah Palin wore jeans Sunday night at an event in North Carolina.
The Republican vice presidential candidate has been dogged for days by a brouhaha over $150,000 in clothes and accessories bought for her by the Republican National Committee.
Palin says the clothing flap is “so ridiculous,” arguing that she and her family live frugally.
She insists the high-priced wardrobe is for campaign rallies, “just like the lighting and the staging and everything else the RNC purchased.”
She says since the clothes don’t belong to her, she won’t be taking them with her. Instead, Palin says she’ll go back to wearing her old clothes from her “favorite consignment shop in Anchorage, Alaska.”
In Asheville, North Carolina, Sunday night, Palin was joined by country artist Gretchen Wilson, who performed her song “Redneck Woman.”
Earlier, Palin spoke in Florida.

Again: want Palin to win? Then you should hope she gets off this subject as quickly as possible.

Post from: The Blog Formerly Known As Vote '08

Above: a rally in Las Vegas.

Headed for a Grand Slam?

Charlie Cook of the National Journal:

For a political analyst, the normal posture this time of year is much like a baseball umpire’s: hunched over, peering carefully as the ball approaches the plate, watching for whether it breaks left or right, whether it’s coming in high or low. But, these days, we analysts are more like outfielders, watching in awe as a ball seems on a trajectory to not only clear the fence but very likely land in the upper deck.

By every metric, Barack Obama’s presidential campaign appears headed for the upper deck. Polls (both national and state-by-state), organization, money, and momentum are all running strongly in Obama’s favor. At this point, one wonders whether Obama’s winning margin could be greater than Arkansas Gov. Bill Clinton’s 5.6-point win over President George H.W. Bush in 1992, more than Bush’s 7.7-point win over Massachusetts Gov. Michael Dukakis in 1988, or more than Clinton’s 8.5-point win over Sen. Bob Dole in 1996. Even higher on the landslide roster is California Gov. Ronald Reagan’s 9.7-point victory over President Carter in 1980 and Gen. Dwight Eisenhower’s 10.9-point win over Adlai Stevenson in 1952.

Click here to view the embedded video.

Not So Fast…

Michael Barone:

“Much of the next Congress’s time and psychic energy will be taken up with refashioning financial regulation — a subject of considerable difficulty. And the looming recession will make it politically risky for Democrats to push big spending programs.

This means that Congress in the next two years may not pass Obama’s national health insurance plan. The weakening economy and the enraged reaction earlier this year to $4-a-gallon gasoline also make it less likely that Congress will pass carbon reduction legislation — certainly not a carbon tax and probably not a cap-and-trade system.”

& David Warren:

“In my world, you don’t humour a politician who presents “Change,” “Unity,” and especially, “Hope,” as hypnotic mantras, with the power of enchantment over very large crowds. And you especially don’t humour such a politician at a time when both country and world are unstable, and hard decisions will have to be made.”

Post from: The Blog Formerly Known As Vote '08

(above: McCain in 1978)

Above: in New Mexico yesterday.

Meeting the Press

He appeared in good spirits & held his own with Tom Brokaw today, which happens to be (as Brokaw mentions) the 41st anniversary of his being shot down over Viet Nam. I do think it was a mistake for McCain not to mention the “one party government” argument that should be one of his main points right now. Watch & let me know what you think.

Finally Finding His Feet

Andrew Romano of Newsweek says the McCain campaign has crafted - at long last - an ad message that may have sticking power & may actually help him in the final days:

“The “two Joes” message—while still fundamentally negative—is a step up: it’s framework for discussing the implications of Obama’s domestic- and foreign-policy proposals—and therefore the issues facing the country—rather than a vessel for fear-mongering and spooky innuendo. You might disagree with McCain on the substance of his statements about the candidates’ competing tax plans and contrasting attitudes toward hostile international leaders. (As I’ve written, Joe the Plumber would get more money back under Obama than McCain.) But at least now there’s some substance to disagree with.”

“Secretariat vs Seabiscuit”

Former McCain Advisor Mark McKinnon (who quit the campaign earlier this year):

“I know and have worked with Obama’s lead adviser David Axelrod, and he’s as smart as anyone I’ve worked with in politics and deserves a lot of credit for a well-run campaign. But I know he’d be the first to admit that he just had the good judgment to saddle up on Secretariat.

I also know and have worked with McCain’s guru Steve Schmidt, who is also one of the most talented players in the game. He just saddled up on Seabiscuit. But he’s running against Secretariat. And only one great horse gets to win.”

Post from: The Blog Formerly Known As Vote '08

Click here to view the embedded video.

Above: a home-made video of a rally in Des Moines, Iowa.

Why Iowa? The latest poll has the state a deep shade of blue!

Perhaps.. someone’s thinking about the year 2012? ..Maybe?

What do you think?

Palin’s Poll Plummet

The Washington Post:

“In polling conducted Wednesday and Thursday evenings, after the disclosure that the Republican National Committee used political funds to help Palin assemble a wardrobe for the campaign, 51 percent said they have a negative impression of her. Fewer, 46 percent, said they have a favorable view. That marks a stark turnaround from early September, when 59 percent of likely voters held positive opinions.

The declines in Palin’s ratings have been even more substantial among the very voters Republicans aimed to woo. The percentage of white women viewing her favorably dropped 21 points since early September; among independent women, it fell 24 points.”

Post from: The Blog Formerly Known As Vote '08

(above: Biden on the bus in Johannesburg, 1976)

Above: in Suffolk, Virginia on Saturday.

More flak from the controversial local TV interview you can see here. The anchor responds to the criticism.

Post from: The Blog Formerly Known As Vote '08

Click here to view the embedded video.

Above: a rally in Cincinnati two days ago (the YouTube clips from his speeches from the past 2 days that I’ve found are less than 1:00 long)

ALBUQUERQUE, N.M. (AP) - John McCain has been campaigning energetically in the Western states, claiming a home-court advantage in the region.
The Arizona senator is stumping through New Mexico and Texas, pointing out that he understands the issues the West faces.
He’s also been portraying Barack Obama as a tax-and-spend liberal interested in “redistributing wealth” than creating it. At an outdoor rally in New Mexico, he said “We’ve seen that movie before in other countries. That’s not America.”
McCain also made note of the Obama campaign’s huge financial advantage. He told the crowd not to let Obama “buy New Mexico.”

After the jump: Fred Thompson makes the case for McCain…What McCain needs to do to win…a former Bush speechwriter says it’s time to stop worrying about McCain winning & start worrying about keeping a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate.

You got a few minutes? Watch Fred Thompson pitch the McCain-Palin ticket.

How He Can Still Win

Politico’s Douglas Schoen:

There is only one thing McCain can do to change the dynamics of the election and be more competitive: He must frame the election as a choice about who is better-prepared to lead America in dealing with the unique challenges that undoubtedly will confront the next administration.

Those challenges are both international and domestic. McCain needs to wrap his personal narrative around his ability to overcome crises and manage conflict, and contrast it with what he believes is Obama’s lack of experience, job preparation and judgment. This argument must be the centerpiece of the final two weeks of the campaign in order for McCain to have any chance of winning.

I’d add three pieces of advice to this.

1. Win Pennsylvania.

2. Win Pennsylvania.

3. Win Pennsylvania.

Some conservatives, though, think “winning the presidency” should not be the focus any longer.

David Frum:

“In these last days before the vote, Republicans need to face some strategic realities. Our resources are limited, and our message is failing. We cannot fight on all fronts. We are cannibalizing races that we must win and probably can win in order to help a national campaign that is almost certainly lost. In these final 10 days, our goal should be: senators first.”

Read the full piece here.

FURTHER READING: The Risks & Rewards of a single-party government.

What do you think?

Post from: The Blog Formerly Known As Vote '08

Above: in Reno, Nevada, today.

RENO, Nev. (AP) - Democratic candidate Barack Obama is mocking his Republican rival, John McCain, for trying to distance himself from President Bush.
Speaking Saturday at a baseball stadium in the toss-up state of Nevada, Obama said it is too late for McCain to say that Bush let the economy get out of whack.
Obama puts it this way: “John McCain attacking George Bush for his out-of-hand economic policy is like Dick Cheney attacking George Bush for his go-it-alone foreign policy.”
Obama says that Bush must not be offended by McCain’s tactics because the president has already cast his vote - an early vote for McCain.
For his part, McCain is telling voters in New Mexico that Obama is just another tax-and-spend liberal.

.

After the jump: New developments in the Obama citizenship lawsuit…a power outage stops Obama from speaking…a new RNC ad says Obama’s unready for a coming storm..a new 2-minute Obama ad…a “home-made” ad for Obama in Tennessee

Judge Dismisses Obama Citizenship Lawsuit

I hate to say I told you so…

PHILADELPHIA (AP) - A federal judge in Philadelphia is dismissing a lawsuit challenging Barack Obama’s legal qualifications to be president.
He rejected the suit brought by attorney Philip Berg, who alleges that Obama is not a U.S. citizen and therefore is ineligible for the presidency.
Berg claims that Obama is either a citizen of his father’s native Kenya or became a citizen of Indonesia after he moved there as a boy.
Obama was born in Hawaii to an American mother and a Kenyan father. His parents divorced and his mother married an Indonesian man.
Internet-fueled conspiracy theories question whether Obama is a “natural-born citizen” as required by the Constitution for a presidential candidate and whether he lost his citizenship while living abroad.
The judge has ruled that Berg lacks standing to bring the case.

The Sound of Silence

From the New York Times:

Mr. Obama was precisely 9 minutes and 40 seconds into his speech, beginning a sentence, “We need policies that grow our economy…” when suddenly silence fell over Peccole Park, a baseball stadium on the Reno campus of the University of Nevada.

The power had gone out. So for several blissfully quiet minutes, Mr. Obama waded into the crowd to shake hands as aides frantically sought to repair the problem.

“I told you, folks are having a tough time making their electricity bills,” Mr. Obama said with a laugh, once his microphone finally came back to life. “Either that or somebody from the McCain campaign kicked our plug out of the socket.”

Stormy Weather

Very arty waves, there. In fact, it made me think of a common painting motif from Japan:

Obama Out with New 2-Minute Ad

“Go Colorblind & Lead”

Above: Home-made ad for Obama from a Tennessee supporter. Nicely done. Even if you don’t plan on voting for Obama, I hope you can appreciate the man’s sentiment.

Post from: The Blog Formerly Known As Vote '08