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Archive for the 'Primary Season' Category

THE INEVITABLE BBQ POLL LEADS US TO THE INEVITABLE BBQ DAYDREAM

July 2nd, 2008, 1:40 pm by Dan Lehr

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WASHINGTON (AP) - Which of the top presidential candidates would you prefer having at your summer cookout?
An Associated Press-Yahoo News Poll finds that people who were surveyed would rather barbecue burgers with Barack Obama than John McCain, by a 52 percent to 45 percent margin.
Men are about evenly divided between the two while women prefer Obama by 11 percentage points. Obama is a more popular guest with younger voters while McCain does best with the oldest.
Party label means a lot, with three-quarters of Democrats picking Obama and the same number of Republicans picking McCain. Independents are about evenly split.
The AP-Yahoo News survey of 1,759 adults was conducted online by Knowledge Networks from June 13-23 and had an overall margin of sampling error of plus or minus 2.3 percentage points. The margin of sampling error for subgroups was larger.

_vote08blog.jpgFooey! Vote08 doesn’t believe in false choices! I love that the premise of this quadrennial poll is that you actually have to make a choice among these candidates, as if they’re knocking on your door & you can only let one of them in. Let’s have a 4th-of-July-Eve-Eve fantasy in which ALL of the recent presidential candidates stop by for a bite, shall we?

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_vote08blog.jpgOkay, fellow barbecue lovers! Let’s hear from you! Which candidate(s) would you like to see at your 4th-of-July barbecue, & what specific dish would you ask them to bring? We eagerly await your comments!

ADDENDUM: (from the Wall Street Journal, March 2nd)

“McCain, dressed in a sweatshirt with a family photo embossed and jeans, spent much of the afternoon turning ribs and chicken over the grill on the wraparound deck of his cabin. He happily disclosed his recipe: a dry rub made up of one-third black pepper, one-third garlic powder and one-third salt. Fresh lemon juice is squeezed over the ribs during a slow cook. The slow cook, he assured observers, allows all the fat to drip away. He promised skeptical eaters that the ribs were practically fat free.”

UPDATE: I asked the entire newsroom to give their responses. Here’s what I have so far:

clinton9.jpg“You can imagine that I’d love to have Senator Clinton at my next backyard BBQ. I feel confident she shouldn’t be asked to contribute to the meal… but I’m equally confident that the conversation would fill my constant hunger for stimulating conversation. How ’bout seeing what you can arrange?”

pig.jpg“Most elected politicians could supply/bring their own “pork” at your expense of course.”

What say you?

THE REVOLUTION’S OVER

June 12th, 2008, 3:38 pm by Dan Lehr

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AUSTIN, Texas (AP) - A spokesman for Ron Paul says the Republican presidential candidate is ending his campaign.
Spokesman Jesse Benton says Paul will make the announcement Thursday night during a speech in Austin, Texas. Paul also will announce that he is beginning a new effort to elect libertarian-leaning Republicans like himself to public office nationwide.
Benton says the announcement was not a disappointment, but rather is exciting.
Paul’s announcement will be a formality. The Texas congressman won few delegates during the Republican primaries, but he raised millions of dollars online and developed a large, grass-roots following among those backed his call for ending the war in Iraq and smaller government at home.

DOUBLE-CROSSING PARTY LINES

May 21st, 2008, 9:51 am by Dan Lehr

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An interesting pair of twists & turns today.

Connecticut Senator & former Democratic vice-presidential candidate Joe Lieberman (I) writes an op-ed in the Wall Street Journal criticizing the foreign policy of Barack Obama:

 “There are of course times when it makes sense to engage in tough diplomacy with hostile governments. Yet what Mr. Obama has proposed is not selective engagement, but a blanket policy of meeting personally as president, without preconditions, in his first year in office, with the leaders of the most vicious, anti-American regimes on the planet.

Mr. Obama has said that in proposing this, he is following in the footsteps of Reagan and JFK. But Kennedy never met with Castro, and Reagan never met with Khomeini. And can anyone imagine Presidents Kennedy or Reagan sitting down unconditionally with Ahmadinejad or Chavez? I certainly cannot.”

& Nebraska Senator Chuck Hagel (R) spoke out yesterday to criticize John McCain:

“I’m very upset with John with some of the things he’s been saying. And I can’t get into the psychoanalysis of it. But I believe that John is smarter than some of the things he is saying. He is, he understands it more. John is a man who reads a lot, he’s been around the world. I want him to get above that and maybe when he gets into the general election, and becomes the general election candidate he will have a higher-level discourse on these things.”

_vote08blog11.jpgGuys, just switch parties already!

What do you think?

THE WRITING ON THE WALL

May 14th, 2008, 12:57 pm by Dan Lehr

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(above: example of my handwriting, age 4)

What does each of the candidates’ handwriting say about their personalities?

The Los Angeles Times delves into a little graphology to come up with the answer:

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Does this mean anything? Is it an accurate portrayal of the candidates? Who knows? We eat this stuff up, nevertheless.

Signed,

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CHANGES AT THE ‘FAULT LINE?’

May 5th, 2008, 10:04 am by Dan Lehr

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January 15th, 2008, Democratic Debate, Las Vegas

TIM RUSSERT: You said each of you have strengths and weaknesses. I want to ask each of you quickly, your greatest strength, your greatest weakness.

JOHN EDWARDS:”I think weakness, I sometimes have a very powerful emotional response to pain that I see around me, when I see a man like Donnie Ingram, who I met a few months ago in South Carolina, who worked for 33 years in the mill, reminded me very much of the kind of people that I grew up with, who’s about to lose his job, has no idea where he’s going to go, what he’s going to do.

I mean, his dignity and self-respect is at issue. And I feel that in a really personal way and in a very emotional way. And I think sometimes that can undermine what you need to do.”

HILLARY CLINTON: “I get impatient. I get, you know, really frustrated when people don’t seem to understand that we can do so much more to help each other. Sometimes I come across that way. I admit that. I get very concerned about, you know, pushing further and faster than perhaps people are ready to go.”

=========================

Barack Obama, at a rally in Las Vegas Nevada four days later (reacting to the ‘weaknesses’ answers):

“Now, I didn’t, nobody had clued me in, that ya know, see, if I had gone last I would have said ‘My biggest weakness? I like to help old ladies across the street. I didn’t understand the question, but this is what I mean. This is political speak. This is what you learn in Washington from all those years of experience — it’s funny, except its sad, because it means that the American people are constantly having to sort out ‘what do people really mean?’”

===========================

Barack Obama, Meet the Press, May 4th, 2008 (asked about why he didn’t break with Reverend Wright sooner):

“And, you know, that is–that may be a fault of mine that I own up to, which is, is that I’m concerned about how other people feel, particularly somebody who I’ve known for quite some time.”

KENTUCKY DERBY WEEKEND POLLS

May 2nd, 2008, 12:34 pm by Dan Lehr

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Happy Kentucky Derby weekend!

We’re a fan.. we’ve been to 9 of them. The above photo is the 1998 race from our perspective in the stands.

After the jump.. find out which horses the candidates are picking to win the Run for the Roses & see how the polls are shaping up for the other “biggest horse race in town.”

Read the rest of this entry »

STUMP SPEECHES, APRIL 29th EDITION

April 29th, 2008, 8:30 am by Dan Lehr

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(above: Woodrow Wilson on the stump)

After the jump, see clips of all 3 candidates on the campaign trail recently.

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OBAMA ON FOX NEWS SUNDAY

April 28th, 2008, 11:26 am by Dan Lehr

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What do you think? Post a comment & let your voice be heard!

OBAMA’S FORMER PASTOR SPEAKS

April 25th, 2008, 6:17 am by Dan Lehr

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What do you think? Post a comment!

NORTH CAROLINA & INDIANA POLLS

April 24th, 2008, 6:58 am by Dan Lehr

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NORTH CAROLINA

According to the average at RealClearPolitics.com:

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Barack Obama: 51.3%

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Hillary Clinton: 35.8%

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INDIANA: (again from RealClearPolitics.com)

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Hillary Clinton: 46.0%

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Barack Obama: 43.8%

HILLARY’S FUZZY MATH

April 24th, 2008, 6:48 am by Dan Lehr

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Hillary Clinton is now claiming that she can make a case that she leads in the popular vote.

But you have to make several assumptions before arriving to that “conclusion.”

We’ll see how her numbers - & everyone else’s - add up, after the jump.

Read the rest of this entry »

NOT OVER THE HILL YET

April 23rd, 2008, 3:23 am by Dan Lehr

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Hillary Clinton won the Pennsylvania primary, 55% to 45%.

Analysis & video clips after the jump.

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CHEESESTEAK PRIMARY PREVIEW

April 22nd, 2008, 3:54 am by Dan Lehr

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HAPPY PENNSYLVANIA PRIMARY DAY!

More links & clips about today than you can shake a cheesesteak at, after you click “read the rest of this entry.

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EAT YOUR HEART OUT, DORIAN GRAY

April 22nd, 2008, 2:44 am by Dan Lehr

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As you can see, four - or in this case eight - years in the White House takes its toll on a President’s facial features (this applies to all presidents, not just the current one.)

The folks at PopPhoto.com provided some helpful insight into how four years of the presidency would change the appearance of each of the three major candidates.

& no, it’s not pretty.

Click “read the rest of this entry” to peer into the future — if you dare!!!!!!!

Read the rest of this entry »

FINAL PENNSYLVANIA ADS

April 21st, 2008, 2:41 pm by Dan Lehr

Here’s a sample from each candidate.

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Who’s gonna win Pennsylvania? & by how much? Make your prediction! Post a comment!

STUMP SPEECHES - PENNSYLVANIA EDITION

April 21st, 2008, 9:59 am by Dan Lehr

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5 weeks of non-stop campaigning in the Keystone State is coming to a close.

After the jump, see some clips of Obama & Clinton on the campaign trail from this past weekend.

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JOHN McCAIN ON ‘THIS WEEK’

April 21st, 2008, 2:54 am by Dan Lehr

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In case you missed it, you can watch clips the full John McCain interview after the jump.

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TIME’S RUNNING OUT FOR HILLARY

April 18th, 2008, 2:22 pm by Dan Lehr

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She may have “won” this week’s debate in the eyes of many, but a new analysis from the AP says the clock is ticking for her to wind down her campaign.

The story in full after the jump.

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THE DAY AFTER THE DEBATE

April 17th, 2008, 3:44 pm by Dan Lehr

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Above: Barack Obama in Raleigh, North Carolina today.

Interesting article from the Raleigh News Observer about how Obama’s “bitter” comment is playing in the Tarheel State.

Meanwhile, Hillary Clinton unveiled an ad in Indiana:

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The criticism for ABC continues all over the internet today (see our earlier post for much, much more on that). We checked ABC’s political blog, which said it had to shut down comments on their site during last night’s debate because their server crashed. That’s not a sign that people are happy with the coverage.

Here’s a YouTube clip spoofing George Stephanopoulos’ “In Memoriam” segment on “This Week:”

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[The line about "taking notes from Sean Hannity" appears to be true, by the way.]

Today George did not back down from his belief that he asked exactly the right questions.

[& yes, we realize we have almost totally ignored John McCain today, who as we said before was truly the winner from last night's debate. Guilty as charged. Sorry. We promise - we'll have more on him tomorrow! Including how he's taking what you might say an "anti-federalist" slant to his general election campaign! Intrigued? We hope so - it's what we in the business call a "tease." Tune in tomorrow!]

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What are your thoughts? Post them in a comment! We’d love to hear from you!

WHO WAS THE BIGGEST LOSER AT LAST NIGHT’S DEBATE?

April 17th, 2008, 9:46 am by Dan Lehr

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(this is the 2nd of 3 posts)

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WHO WAS THE BIGGEST WINNER AT LAST NIGHT’S DEBATE?

April 17th, 2008, 8:22 am by Dan Lehr

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(this is the 1st of 3 posts)

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KEYSTONE STATE KERFUFFLE PREVIEW

April 16th, 2008, 2:44 pm by Dan Lehr

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We hope you’re as excited as we are for tonight’s debate; it’s been so so long since we’ve had one!

& to make things more interesting .. there’s a chance that this may be the very last one between Clinton & Obama.

Here are some links to get you primed & ready:

Chris Cillizza over at the Washington Post’s blog “The Fix” breaks it down this way:

* Clinton — Naughty or Nice? Clinton’s approach has fluctuated widely in recent debates. At times she is magnanimous to and about Obama, at others she appears to be looking for every opportunity to knee-cap him. Our guess is that the tougher Clinton is the one who takes the stage tonight; her campaign, rightly or wrongly, believes that the “bitter” comments made by Obama offer her perhaps her best chance yet in the campaign to change the narrative. If Clinton can’t make “bitter” stick to Obama tonight, she may never have another opportunity to do so; no other debates have been scheduled in the remaining six weeks of the nomination fight.

* Obama — Professor or Pugilist? Like Clinton, Obama has adopted a number of different styles during the 20 (or so) debates of the campaign. The Illinois senator is best when goes off script — often during a heated exchange between candidates. Obama is quick on his feet and has a natural sense for repartee. He’s at his worst when faced with a question about the economy or health care; he dips into his college professor mode, offering a series of philosophical arguments almost entirely bereft of specifics or any real passion. For The Fix, the difference in Obama’s approaches is similar to listening to a CD and seeing a band live. Obama needs to go for that live feel tonight.

Veteran political journalist Dick Polman has advice for what Obama needs to say tonight, at his blog, Dick Polman’s American Debate.

& pollster Doug Schoen has advice for Hillary: go negative.

We hope you watch, think over who you think won, & come back here to post a comment! We’ll be waiting!

GALLUP: OBAMA’S ‘BITTER’ REMARK SHOWS NO IMPACT

April 16th, 2008, 2:33 pm by Dan Lehr

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Details here.

These are just the first polls & there’s still plenty of time for fallout - if any - to show up before the April 22nd primary.

JOHN McCAIN ON HARDBALL

April 16th, 2008, 12:27 pm by Dan Lehr

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NEW HILLARY AD IN PENNSYLVANIA

April 16th, 2008, 9:44 am by Dan Lehr

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Hi! We’re back. I have to work this Saturday & Sunday & thus was off yesterday.

Two of you have commented on the Barack “bitter” controversy (see post below this one) & I hope more of you weigh in as well. We’ve offered our take on it.. but this blog needs to realize its full potential by having you weigh in with your thoughts. All views are welcome.

Tell us what you think of this response ad from Hillary, too…

& also, here’s a parody of that ad. Boy these internets are quick!

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OBAMA’S ‘CLING TO RELIGION’ REMARK

April 14th, 2008, 8:29 am by Dan Lehr

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Several of you have weighed in!

Otto J Drobny says:

I do not see why all the fuss except for the media. It should not be a surprise there are bitter people everywhere not just Pennsylvania that do not trust the government. You will find them right here in Chattanooga

Tish Jackson writes

I am amazed at how silly it is….the media, Hillary and McCain making a big deal out of one sentence that is nothing less than true when you take it in context, and when we are all honest. If there is a large contingent of Americans who are not bitter, who believe their government is taking great care of them, then please correct me and show me where they are. I believe the majority of Americans are bitter about how their government and politicians have performed, especially over the last eight years. What’s so wrong in calling it out?

It’s incredible to me that something like this will get so much attention in order to cast it in a negative light, when it is not negative. It makes those trying to make it look negative resemble petty high school kids starting a rumor they hope will stick. It also assumes that most Americans are unwilling to educate themselves, and will take the media’s word for it. Unfortunantly, it’s likely true. Why is it true? Because Americans are bitter and no longer feel they have a voice, and therefore don’t pay close attention. Ironic?…oh yeah!

What’s keeping you from commenting? All views are welcome! Tell us how you think!

Barack Obama spent the weekend explaining himself out of some “inartful” comments he made about voters in Pennsylvania.

Read them for yourself:

“So, it depends on where you are, but I think it’s fair to say that the places where we are going to have to do the most work are the places where people feel most cynical about government. The people are mis-appre…I think they’re misunderstanding why the demographics in our, in this contest have broken out as they are. Because everybody just ascribes it to ‘white working-class don’t wanna work — don’t wanna vote for the black guy.’ That’s…there were intimations of that in an article in the Sunday New York Times today - kind of implies that it’s sort of a race thing.

Here’s how it is: in a lot of these communities in big industrial states like Ohio and Pennsylvania, people have been beaten down so long, and they feel so betrayed by government, and when they hear a pitch that is premised on not being cynical about government, then a part of them just doesn’t buy it. And when it’s delivered by — it’s true that when it’s delivered by a 46-year-old black man named Barack Obama (laugher), then that adds another layer of skepticism (laughter).

But — so the questions you’re most likely to get about me, ‘Well, what is this guy going to do for me? What’s the concrete thing?’ What they wanna hear is — so, we’ll give you talking points about what we’re proposing — close tax loopholes, roll back, you know, the tax cuts for the top 1 percent. Obama’s gonna give tax breaks to middle-class folks and we’re gonna provide health care for every American. So we’ll go down a series of talking points.

But the truth is, is that, our challenge is to get people persuaded that we can make progress when there’s not evidence of that in their daily lives. You go into some of these small towns in Pennsylvania, and like a lot of small towns in the Midwest, the jobs have been gone now for 25 years and nothing’s replaced them. And they fell through the Clinton administration, and the Bush administration, and each successive administration has said that somehow these communities are gonna regenerate and they have not. So it’s not surprising then that they get bitter, they cling to guns or religion or antipathy to people who aren’t like them or anti-immigrant sentiment or anti-trade sentiment as a way to explain their frustrations.

Um, now these are in some communities, you know. I think what you’ll find is, is that people of every background — there are gonna be a mix of people, you can go in the toughest neighborhoods, you know working-class lunch-pail folks, you’ll find Obama enthusiasts. And you can go into places where you think I’d be very strong and people will just be skeptical. The important thing is that you show up and you’re doing what you’re doing.

The comments highlighted in bold are the ones that many have taken out of context to portray him as “elitist.” Whether or not that’s true, it will be interesting to see how this affects him in the polls.

What do you think he meant? We hope you weigh in in the comments, as this is a topic that is worthy of a lot of discussion.

We discuss this further - including responses from Clinton & McCain, & Obama’s explanation - after the jump.

Read the rest of this entry »

POLL UPDATE: PENNSYLVANIA, NORTH CAROLINA, & INDIANA

April 11th, 2008, 4:15 pm by Dan Lehr

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What are the latest polling numbers showing in Pennsylvania (April 22nd), North Carolina (May 6th) & Indiana (ditto)?

Find out after the jump!

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DEAN NIXES BREDESEN’S IDEA

April 2nd, 2008, 8:40 am by Dan Lehr

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Two weeks ago, we told you about Tennessee Governor Phil Bredesen’s idea to hold a Superdelegate primary to decide the Democratic Presidential nomination.

This morning comes news that DNC chairman Howard Dean has put the kibosh on the idea:

We can’t have a convention of super delegates because it would look like 330 delegates are overriding the wishes of 30 million voters,” Dean said in an interview with USA TODAY. He said Bredesen deserved credit for advancing the plan.

Oh, well.. thanks anyway, Gov.

DAILY UPDATE: WHO’S FOOLIN’ WHOM?

April 1st, 2008, 9:11 am by Dan Lehr

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_vote08blog.jpgWishes You & Yours a Happy April Fool’s Day!

Here’s a look at what’s making headlines on the campaign trail today.

libertybell.jpg PENNSYLVANIA POLLS TIGHTEN. Hillary enjoyed a 10-point lead over Barack Obama last week in the Rasmussen poll. The one out today shows that lead has narrowed by half — 47 to 42 percent.

hrc_330.jpgCLINTON’S CONVENTION STRATEGY IN DOUBT. If (big if) the nomination fight survives to the Denver convention in August, Clinton’s plan is to work the convention’s 169-member credentials committee to seat delegates from Florida & Michigan. But the Politico reports this morning that she will not have enough votes on that committee to get a ruling in her favor.

justinwilkins-delegate.jpgRecall that one of our local pledged delegates, Justin Wilkins, an Obama supporter from Hamilton County, has an outside shot of getting on that committee. Justin tells me via e-mail “I’m not on the committee yet. I have an opportunity to get elected to the committee… but I’ll likely be competing with the establishment, political people…so not sure how realistic it would be….”

stumps-in-water.jpgPOTENTIAL HAZARDS FOR OBAMA DOWN THE ROAD. A professor identifies four major “stumps in the water” for Barack Obama. Each of them involve how the candidate managed the seamy cesspool that is Illinois politics while he was beginning his political career.

youngmccain.jpgMcCAIN BIOGRAPHY TOUR, DAY 2: John’s in Virginia later today. His campaign put out this new ad, which among other things reveals (near the end) what McCain’s middle name is:

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mccain1.gifIS McCAIN GETTING RIGHT WITH THE CHRISTIAN RIGHT? Focus on the Family’s James Dobson earlier had promised to sit on the sidelines if McCain were the nominee. Now it appears he’s flip-flopping that position, as BeliefNet explains.

Check back with _vote08blog1.jpg throughout the day, as more campaign stories develop. No foolin’! You can Depend on Us.

TIME FOR A VACATION

March 25th, 2008, 4:10 pm by Dan Lehr

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(from the Washington Post’s Tom Oliphaunt)

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Barack Obama’s taking the week off this week by vacationing in the Virgin Islands, & we wish the other candidates & their campaign staffs would do the same.

hillarycaptionthisa.jpgCome on, Hillary — Pennsylvania’s still 5 weeks away, & you’re doing just fine in the polls. You have time to kick back.

mccainstump.jpgJohn, the gaffes you made on your Mideast trip hint that you’re due for one as well.

& why should we worry about the ultimate outcome of the Democratic nomination? It doesn’t seem as if Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid is losing any sleep:

harry_reid_rotunda.jpg “Asked about it last week, Reid said he remains convinced the nominee will be decided well before the August national convention. He wore a serene and mysterious smile.

But Reid isn’t one for lengthy explanations. The conversation went like this:

Question: Do you still think the Democratic race can be resolved before the convention?

Reid: Easy.

Q: How is that?

Reid: It will be done.

Q: It just will?

Reid: Yep.

Q: Magically?

Reid: No, it will be done. I had a conversation with Governor Dean (Democratic National Committee Chairman Howard Dean) today. Things are being done.

That’s all the Nevada Democrat would say about it.

Well, all right then!

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_vote08blog16.jpg’s going to take the next few days off & be back, hopefully refreshed, on Monday.

We will of course monitor the news & bring you any new campaign developments. But if we had to guess which days would see the least amount of news between January 3rd (the Iowa caucuses, which now seem part of the Plieostene epoch) and April 22nd (PA primary), these next few days would be a good bet.

HOOSIER PREFERENCE?

March 25th, 2008, 11:31 am by Dan Lehr

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Well, here’s a rebuttal to yesterday’s post about the sudden crucialness of North Carolina.

No, no, this article says — it’s Indiana that is the key state that will decide the fate of the Democratic nomination:

Indiana may be the one state remaining on the primary calendar where both candidates begin with a roughly equal chance of coming out ahead.

In Indiana, Obama has a home-field advantage, while Clinton has the backing of the popular Sen. Evan Bayh and may have an edge on the kind of economic issues that are likely to dominate the discussion before the state’s Democrats vote on May 6.

So what do the polls say? No idea. RealClearPolitics.com does not have any. Let me know if you see any.

May 6th will be very exciting. We can’t wait!

What do you think? Will North Carolina or Indiana be the deciding state? Post a comment!

NORTH CAROLINA’S SUDDENLY CRUCIAL

March 24th, 2008, 2:25 pm by Dan Lehr

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Do you know any North Carolina Democrats?

If so, tell them they need to vote on May 6th.

That’s because the outcome of the Tarheel State Democratic Presidential Primary got very crucial all of a sudden.

Details, including current NC polls, after the jump.

Read the rest of this entry »

IS CLINTON FULL OF BLARNEY?

March 24th, 2008, 7:51 am by Dan Lehr

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Yes, we know St. Patrick’s Day was a week ago, but on that day candidate Hillary Clinton claimed that as First Lady in 1996, she flew to Bosnia to help the peace process there, & said that she had to ‘endure sniper fire’ on the airport’s tarmac when she got off the plane.

Video has surfaced that seems to be contrary to that statement. Watch for yourself, first a 1996 news clip of her on that airport, followed by her statement she made last week.

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The Washington Post has more on the story -or rather both stories- here.

sinbad.jpg‘Comedian’ Sinbad was also on the flight (with singer Sheryl Crow), & also doesn’t remember it the way Clinton is describing it.

obama3.jpgThis morning Clinton’s not the only one facing charges of embellishment. Barack Obama is, too.

UPDATE/4:46pm: The Clinton campaign now says she “may have misspoke” about the specifics of her Bosnia trip.

What do you think?

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