The Blog Formerly Known As Vote '08

GOP Presidential candidate Mike Huckabee appears this morning for a rally at the Chattanooga Convention Center (1150 Carter Street), confirming Vote08’s prediction from January 26th. Huckabee is polling well on this side of Tennessee, & his volunteers were visible around Chattanooga this weekend.

The latest statewide poll (PDF file) from WSMV-TV in Nashville shows Huckabee is very alive in the Tennessee primary:

Mike Huckabee: 24%

John McCain: 23%

Mitt Romney: 18%

Ron Paul: 4%

Don’t Know Yet: 26%

…but as you can see, “don’t know” is the winner so far. Therefore, heeeere’s Huckabee.

Huckabee’s lead is in west Tennessee and here in east Tennessee. He has a 10 point lead in the west but just a 4-point lead here in the east. He also polls better with women than with men.

The voter shift from supporting Fred Thompson is also an interesting number to track. 46% of Tennessee Republicans say they would have given Fred their support. The polls show a fairly even shift to McCain, Romney & Huckabee from Thompson supporters, but still over a quarter of former Thompson supporters remain undecided.

So simply put, Huckabee has every reason to visit Chattanooga today.

Tennessee State Rep. Eric Watson will be welcoming Huckabee at a rally this morning at 8am. Huckabee will do interviews after the rally at about 9:15.

Should you go if you can? Absolutely. This goes for everyone of any political stripe. These events happen with the rarity of solar eclipses, and regardless of how you feel about the man it’s still a fun event to witness. This will probably be (but who knows) the last presidential candidate to visit Chattanooga until after Super Tuesday.

Depend on NewsChannel 9 and NewsChannel9.com (not to mention Vote08) to keep you up to date on what’s happening. If you’re checking this blog after you went to see him, drop us a line! We’d love to hear your story or share your photos!

p.s. What are ‘hustings?’ (see headline) Here’s a definition.

(Scroll down for last night’s GOP debate highlights)

First up, check out this latest Gallup daily tracking poll:

Since South Carolina, & since Ted & Caroline Kennedy’s endorsement of Barack Obama, the race is getting tighter nationally. Any political geek with any sense should tune in tonight for what should be the most fascinating debate on either side so far this campaign. Why?

-First off, it’s a two-person debate. The crowd has thinned. Both candidates now have a 2-hour opportunity to make their case & build their themes that will convince voters.
-Secondly, California is the race to watch on Super Tuesday night. Whoever voters in the Golden State pick will likely be the Democratic nominee. So get some sleep between now & then, as the polls don’t close there until 10 o’clock eastern time.
-Hillary Clinton has an edge in the California polls, especially among Hispanics which make up a huge voting block. Will they vote en masse for one candidate the way blacks did in South Carolina?
-But the exit of John Edwards changes things a bit. To wit: “The latest Field Poll in California suggested Obama could gain a slight edge from Edwards’ exit from the race. The poll found that if Edwards withdrew, 29 percent of his supporters would back Obama, while 11 percent would back Clinton. Another 48 percent said they were undecided.”

VOTE08 PREDICTS: Hillary will make nice. She will wait for Obama to continue the theme outlined in his South Carolina primary victory speech & pounce on him for “negative campaigning.” You can bet she has about 50 different points all ready to make in this regard. Obama’s strength is in victory speeches like the one he gave last Saturday, but he’s not as comfortable in the debate format & has made his share of mistakes. Obama needs to improve that to make a difference. Clinton needs to project an ‘above-the-fray’ air to maintain her lead.

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OTHER DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY CAMPAIGN POINTS TO PONDER:

The dynasty question. Are we really ready for 24 & possibly 28 years of two families running the White House?

One site answers a resounding YES! We ARE!! “Bush-Clinton Forever” plots out through to the year 2057 how the families can retain control.

Bill Clinton has learned his lesson & takes a back seat on the campaign trail. At least, that’s what his wife says.

ABC News’ top story this morning looks over Hillary Clinton’s time on the Wal-Mart board in the 1980s, and interviews several who say she didn’t do enough to promote union causes. Essential reading for any former Edwards fan giving Hillary a 2nd look.

& here’s an argument that Ted Kennedy’s endorsement of Barack Obama isn’t such a good thing.

What do you think?

Will tonight’s debate in California be a “game-changer?” Or does Hillary have the votes she needs wrapped up?

Do you think the polls will tighten in the coming days?

What - if any - concerns do you have about Bill Clinton’s role in a Hillary Clinton White House?

Edwards supporters — what’s your thinking on who to choose now?

Vote08 would love for you to weigh in!!!!

The remaining GOP candidates held their final pre-Super Tuesday debate at the Ronald Reagan library in California Wednesday night. John McCain, Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee & Ron Paul all made the case for their conservative credentials. Romney needed to score points against McCain, who’s emerging as the front-runner nationally. And it appears in many ways he did just that last night.

Here’s the transcript & here are a few highlights from the CNN debate. (You’ll need to sit through an ad with each clip)

McCain & Romney discuss the economy. All are reluctant to blame any troubles of the current economy on the policies of George W. Bush. Each favor making President Bush’s tax cuts permanent before they expire in 2010. All favor reducing government regulation. All shared concern about the implications of the current stimulus package now under debate in Congress. Mike Huckabee’s idea to fix the economy is to create jobs by investing in the nation’s infrastructure.

Later in the debate, the candidates were each asked about their abilities to lead on issues that aren’t their strong points — mainly, John McCain’s admitted lack of economic experience & Mitt Romney’s admitted lack of military experience. Romney made an effective argument (used by any governor who’s ever run for President) that executive (versus legislative) experience matters when it comes to leading a nation; McCain scored points against Romney for reminding voters of his foreign policy credentials and his prescient support for the surge in Iraq.

What did voters think? Vote08 is a huge fan of real-time meters that measure their reaction to candidates responses. And interestingly, undecided voters watching that debate liked what Mitt Romney had to say on many issues. & even though Romney needed to attack McCain hard, it was McCain’s attacks that turned those voters off the most.

The final question for all four candidates was “Would Ronald Reagan endorse you?” Check out the people-meter responses to each answer. (Mike Huckabee probably had the best response).

My take:

-Mitt Romney did better than expected. He projected himself as calm under fire, yet he failed to score a fatal blow against the McCain campaign. McCain overcompensated in expecting Romney to attack hard, and that nasty defense cost him with undecideds.
-Mike Huckabee held his own, but momentum is not on his side. He has a vested interest in keeping the race interesting; he’s polling in the lead in 5 Super Tuesday states, so it’s unlikely he’ll drop out before then.
-John McCain had a relatively bad night, though he didn’t give many “bad” answers. Many Republican voters are giving him a fresh look since his Florida win, and that look comes with a (ultimately healthy) dose of skepticism. His status as front runner remains, but Romney proved with undecided voters last night that this race is far from over.
-Ron Paul is a “big picture” kind of guy. In many ways he was the conservative candidate on the stage with the (paradoxically) most radical ideas. He proposes changing the nation’s monetary & foreign policy that are the most drastic; unfortunately for his supporters he lacks the charisma of the other three, and his abstract message is probably better conveyed during a 4-hour seminar than the tight schedule of the debate format.

OTHER GOP PRIMARY CAMPAIGN POINTS TO PONDER:
California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger was in the audience last night; he plans to announce his endorsement for McCain very soon. Will that help him?

In what he called a “non-concession” speech, Rush Limbaugh is refusing to make nice with McCain. Was that the right move on Rush’s part?

Other conservatives still have concerns. Is he really a conservative? & does he have a problem with his temper? What do you think?

Those of you thinking Romney will win the nomination based on his stance on illegal immigration may need to rethink that after looking at this Florida exit poll data. What’s your take?

The latest Gallup daily tracking poll shows all candidates benefiting from the demise of Rudy Giuliani.

Now that a new landscape has emerged for the Republican nomination race, Vote08 predicts a narrowing of McCain’s lead in the coming days.

What do you think?

Which candidate best deserves to be called “heir to Ronald Reagan?”

Which candidate do you think best deserves the title “heir to George W. Bush?”

Which is a bigger drawback for a president: a lack of economic experience or a lack of military experience?

Are you a GOP voter who’s still undecided?

If you’re a Democrat or Independent, which candidate of the remaining four do you find most & least acceptable?

Log in and give Vote08 your views!

Happy Florida Primary Day! Vote08 hopes you log on to NewsChannel9.com later tonight first to get your live Florida results! Could the GOP results be as close as the 2000 presidential race? Let’s hope not!

Let’s get you up to speed on today’s campaign headlines!

It’s down to Romney vs McCain. This race couldn’t be tighter. This Zogby poll released this morning shows McCain pulling away (& a tightening race for third between Giuiliani & Huckabee), but an aggregate of other polls at RealClearPolitics.com shows the race is still anybody’s guess. And shouldn’t you ignore these polls anyway?

Both Romney & McCain fought bare knuckles on the last day of campaigning. Will that turn voters off to one or the other - or both? What are conservatives saying about why they’re supporting either candidate? And most importantly — what do you think? Now’s your chance to weigh in!

Mike Huckabee has Chuck Norris. Now Sylvester Stallone has announced he’s a McCain man. And one blogger views the latest (4th) Rambo movie as an argument for the continuation of the global interventionalist policies of the current administration.

A slew of new Rasmussen Presidential polls are in from the southeast! The only one from Tennessee I can find is that WSMV poll we’ve covered extensively already. But Georgia? Alabama? Fresh this morning!

• Georgia Democrats favor Hillary Clinton over Barack Obama by 6 points in the latest Rasmussen poll.
• Georgia Republicans say the Peach State is Huckabee Country. The former Arkansas governor has a commanding lead over McCain in the latest Rasmussen poll.
• Alabama’s GOP primary will be a squeaker. The Rasmussen poll shows Republicans evenly divided between Mike Huckabee & John McCain. Romney’s a distant third.
• Alabama’s Democrats are giving Hillary Clinton a clear edge. The Rasmussen poll shows Clinton with a 15 point lead over Barack Obama.

The Rasmussen polls were taken January 23rd, before the Democratic South Carolina primary. It’ll be interesting to see if the down-&-dirty Palmetto State campaign will affect Democrats in our neighborhood.

The effects Bill Clinton is having on his wife’s campaign are spreading across the political landscape today. Eugene Robinson of the Washington Post wonders if the country has moved on from the race issues Bill raised on Saturday. Conservative columnist David Brooks of the New York Times was at the rally where Ted Kennedy endorsed Barack Obama, & says he was smitten by an apparent return to the New Frontier. & was Bill’s comparison between the campaigns of Obama in 2008 & Jesse Jackson in 1984 & 1988 really all that apt?

Asking once again, with a bit more of an answer: Will the Al Gore endorsement shoe drop anytime soon?

& speaking of other shoes, NewsChannel 9 has learned Barack Obama’s opening a campaign office in Knoxville. He was the first to plant his flag in Tennessee, in Nashville, & he’s got an office in Memphis. So is one in Chattanooga next? (note: NO campaigns have set up shop in the NewsChannel 9 viewing area with the exception of Ron Paul, whose supporters have an office in Cleveland. Vote08 heartily endorses all candidates setting up in the Tennessee Valley! That’s because it’ll make this blog all the more exciting!)

& finally, former National Transportation Safety Board Chairman and Signal Mountain resident Jim Hall has signed on to be the local “Rapid Responder” for the Hillary Clinton campaign. Vote08 plans to contact him today with a few questions about his take on the current race status.

What’s on your mind this morning? Post a comment and let us know!

A poll (PDF file) of 1003 likely voters in the Tennessee primary by Nashville NBC affiliate WSMV-TV finds the race in Tennessee is up for grabs. This poll was taken before Fred Thompson dropped out, so it’s interesting to note that his lock on the state wasn’t all that.

Interesting tidbits:

DEMOCRATS

Statewide, it’s Clinton 34%, Obama 20% & Edwards 16%. But narrowing in on east Tennessee shows Edwards has more fans on this side of the state. It’s Clinton 34%, Obama 17% and Edwards 21% — a virtual swap with Obama’s statewide numbers.

The big elephant (or rather, donkey) in the room: 28% statewide and 26% in east Tennessee remain undecided.

The economy topped Tennessee Democrats’ lists of concerns, followed by health care and the war in Iraq.

REPUBLICANS:

Fred Thompson wins, right? Wrong. Undecided is the top vote-getter right now - 26%

The rest of the candidates:

Fred Thompson: 25%

Mike Huckabee: 24%

John McCain: 12%

Mitt Romney: 7%

Ron Paul & Rudy Giuliani: 2%

If we now count Thompson’s supporters as undecided, that means 51% of Tennessee GOP voters are undecided. That’s huge.

& now for what I think is the most fascinating number of the poll: East Tennessee Republicans did not swing for Thompson. Mike Huckabee’s preferred 23% to Thompson’s 18% (Fred’s biggest support comes from the central part of the state). It’s too bad Fred couldn’t stay in it, as it would have been a fascinating race.

The top issues of Tennessee Republicans are the economy, family values, and immigration. Iraq was a distant fourth.

Voters from every Tennessee county in the NewsChannel 9 viewing area “volunteered” for the Tennessee voter poll — with the exception of Sequatchie County (& it’s not that it was excluded — it’s likely that someone in Sequatchie County either didn’t pick up their phone or refused to answer questions). Hamilton & Bradley Counties had 33 and 30 poll respondents (out of 1003) respectively. The remaining counties in our viewing area had respondents in the single digits (the poll didn’t reveal which candidates voters in each of those counties picked).

So What Does It Mean? The numbers show Hillary & Huckabee are on track to be Tennessee’s February 5th picks, but huge undecided numbers on both sides make this an extremely tough race to call.

Who do you think will win Tennessee? Post a comment & let me know!

Go to the main page of NewsChannel9.com and vote in our latest web poll, just in time for Saturday’s South Carolina contest: Which Democrat gets your vote in the upcoming February 5th primaries? Hillary, Barack, or John? (I’ve left off Kucinich as he plans to drop out later today).

& once again the option of “None of Them” is available for those of you who can’t stomach any of them.

We asked you the same question of the GOP field last week, and the top pick was Ron Paul.

We asked for your Democratic candidate pick back on April 4th of last year, when the field was much more crowded. 370 of you voted. Here’s how you sized up the three remaining players:

Hillary Clinton: 25%

Barack Obama: 19%

John Edwards: 30.5%

Edwards won the poll. Is the landscape the same? We’ll find out!
Caveat: while we’re able to keep this poll limited to one vote per computer, it should technically be considered “unscientific.”

New Florida polls show a surge for Romney & a slump for Huckabee & Giuiliani.

The Wall Street Journal reports Mike Huckabee campaign is strapped for cash. Can Huck survive ’til Super Tuesday?

What role would religion play in a Barack Obama administration? The candidate gives extensive answers in an interview with BeliefNet.

The New York Times’ Gail Collins wonders if Hillary has sufficiently learned from her husband’s managerial mistakes while he was president (free registration required). And William Grieder over at The Nation argues the Clintons have reverted to their true nature on the campaign trail recently.

Are you better off than you were 8 years ago? The House Democratic Congress has built a chart comparing several economic indicators of the years 2000 & 2008. (The gas price comparison alone is a guaranteed eyebrow-raiser).

Michael Medved tries to debunk what he says are six lies many of his critics are spreading about John McCain at TownHall.com.

Pierre Atlas at RealClearPolitics.com illustrates how a McCain-Obama matchup would represent -yet again- the Battles of the 1960’s we still somehow can’t seem to shake.

My goodness, 2012? Yes, someone’s already talking about it. Spencer Ackerman at the American Prospect argues why that race is General David Petraeus’ to lose.

Is Ralph Nader going to run again?

We’d all love to trade in our bodies for new models. But the Houston Chronicle reports one House candidate tried to do just that in a photo used in a recent campaign flyer.

And finally, Washington Post political cartoonist Tom Toles has a humorous guide to the candidates.