If you haven’t seen yet, head back over to NewsChannel9.com to vote in our latest web poll, which asks:

Do you think Democratic Presidential nominee Barack Obama’s choice of Delaware Senator Joe Biden for his running mate was the right pick?

As of 1pm on Tuesday, the results are

Vote now!

From a Rasmussen poll taken on August 20th:

John McCain now leads Barack Obama in the Volunteer State by twenty-four percentage points in Tennessee. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the Volunteer State shows McCain with a 56% to 32% margin. That’s essentially where the race stood in April although Obama managed to close the gap to fifteen points in June, shortly after wrapping up the Democratic nomination. When “leaners” are included, McCain now leads Obama 60% to 35%. Leaners are survey participants who initially indicate no preference for either major candidate but indicate that they are leaning towards either McCain or Obama.

Fifty-seven percent (57%) say that most reporters are trying to help Obama win the election while just 9% believe the media is trying to help McCain. These figures are similar to the national average. Another recent survey found that most voters see media bias as a bigger problem than large campaign contributions.

Nationally, Obama enjoyed a five-point lead in June that has closed to essentially an even race in August as measured by the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll. Premium Members can review full crosstabs and see results by gender, age, ideology, party, income, and other demographics for all state and national polling.

The Republican nominee is viewed favorably by 63% of Tennessee voters and unfavorably by 36%.

Obama’s ratings are 39% favorable, 60% unfavorable.

Rasmussen Markets data shows that Republicans are currently given a 94.0 % chance of winning Tennessee this November.

…

Fifty-nine percent (59%) of Tennessee voters say that finding new sources of energy is more important than reducing the amount of energy Americans consume. Thirty-one percent (31%) disagree and say reducing consumption is the higher priority. These figures are similar to the national average.

Fifty-seven percent (57%) in Tennessee say the U.S. and its allies are winning the War on Terror. That’s a bit more optimistic than the nation-at-large. Nationally, however, confidence is at the highest levels of the past four years.

Dirty little secret of why I view this poll with dismay [& there’s a good chance you’ll disagree with me]: with such a wide lead in the Volunteer state, don’t look for too much political advertising from either candidate any time soon.

What do you think? The comment section is up & running for your thoughts!

The McCain campaign has released a memo that says it expects Barack Obama’s standing in the polls to get a 16-point bump:

Monday marks the beginning of the Democratic National Convention in Denver. A combination of factors makes this particular convention historic on many levels. Democrats have just completed an incredibly compelling primary cycle that has both energized and divided the Democratic Party. Because of the unique nature of the Democratic primary, we believe Obama will receive a significant bump from his convention.

This cycle mirrors Bill Clinton’s Democratic convention in 1992: A historic 16-point bump. Barack Obama is more similarly situated to Bill Clinton in 1992 than any other candidate in recent history. Bill Clinton was a new candidate on the national scene; he was running in a “change” oriented election cycle and the economy was voters’ top issue — a dynamic he was able to capitalize on. He received a 16-point bump coming out of his convention. Obama is also a “new” candidate in a change-oriented environment. And, like Bill Clinton, he will spend the convention presenting himself as the agent of change who will fix the economy.

Obama will ride his VP bump. In addition to Obama taking advantage of the political environment, he will announce his Vice Presidential candidate late this week. This announcement typically gives a candidate a 5-point temporary bump that dissipates. However, Obama’s timing allows him to maximize his Vice Presidential bump and sustain press attention for the course of the week. He will ride the wave of an announcement from late this week (announcement expected by Saturday) through his speech on Thursday. This means that whatever bump he gains from the announcement has the potential to be lasting.

Obama will correct his underperformance with Hillary Clinton’s primary voters and emerge with a much more cohesive base. This convention gives Obama a platform to unite his base. There continues to be a divide in the Democratic base: Between 10-15% of Democrats are voting for McCain or sitting on the fence. In target states, that number is even higher, between 15-20% in many surveys. The Obama campaign knows that winning or losing in states like Ohio, Michigan and Pennsylvania depends on Obama’s ability to bring these voters home. If his convention successfully showcases Hillary Clinton and heals the wounds from the primary, he will move large groups of voters in those key places.

Obama’s stadium address on Thursday — the 45th anniversary of Rev. Martin Luther King Jr.’s “I Have A Dream” speech — will result in effusive and overwhelming press coverage. On Thursday, Obama will give a great speech, as has been his trademark. The press will sing his praises and remark on his historic address and Obama’s place in history. For example, The Associated Press today published an article comparing the historic nature of the addresses - a week before Obama’s speech. This coverage will be impenetrable and will undoubtedly impact the polls.

We believe Obama will see a significant bump, and believe it is reasonable to expect nearly a 15-point bounce out of a convention in this political environment.

Golly, how — how nice sounding! Why would the McCain campaign talk about this projected bounce when it seems to hurt them the most?

Because when/if it doesn’t happen (read: a bounce < 16% in the polls) they will trumpet the fact that he did not meet expectations!

2 caveats, though:

1. The GOP convention immediately follows the Democratic one this time around. 

2. Clinton’s bounce (see above) of 16 points in 1992 was helped enormously by the fact that H. Ross Perot dropped out that same week.

Ain’t politics grand?

From a new survey from the Barna Group: 

For the most part, the various faith communities of the U.S. currently support Sen. Obama for the presidency. Among the 19 faith segments that The Barna Group tracks, evangelicals were the only segment to throw its support to Sen. McCain. Among the larger faith niches to support Sen. Obama are non-evangelical born again Christians (43% to 31%); notional Christians (44% to 28%); people aligned with faiths other than Christianity (56% to 24%); atheists and agnostics (55% to 17%); Catholics (39% vs. 29%); and Protestants (43% to 34%). In fact, if the current preferences stand pat, this would mark the first time in more than two decades that the born again vote has swung toward the Democratic candidate.

Above: details from a new Pew research poll that says while a majority of people think Barack Obama is running the more positive campaign, they’re already sick of hearing about him.

What do you think?

Take a look at Gallup’s polling in so-called “Red,” “Blue” & “Purple” states - particularly the latter - & you see the race is a lot tighter than it seems:

From Quinnipiac:

OHIO

Obama 46, McCain 44

FLORIDA

Obama 46, McCain 44

PENNSYLVANIA:

Obama 49, McCain 42

Each of these races have tightened slightly [roughly, add 1 to Obama & take away 1 from McCain to get last month’s numbers]

& how important are these states?

–If Obama wins Pennsylvania, he doesn’t need to win Ohio & Florida

–If Obama loses Ohio & Florida, he absolutely needs to win Pennsylvania.

If you’re an electoral vote junkie, you need to check out this site: “FiveThirtyEight.”

Hard to believe, isn’t it? 100 days until we pick a new president. & if you thought this year’s been exciting up to this point..

I’d like to give you an opportunity to give me some feedback on the Vote08 blog. What do you like - what don’t you like? What would you like to see more of? Less of? I’d like to make this blog an essential site for you to check on a daily basis by November; what can I do to make that happen? Please let me know in the comments section.

Onward. Here’s the latest Gallup daily tracking poll:

Obama’s enjoying his widest lead yet, but I wouldn’t put too much stock in this. Let’s see where we are a week from now, right before the Olympics begin.

I also want to remind you that this year the polls may be even more inaccurate than past election years, with a higher first-time voter turnout predicted. Those first-timers are not ever surveyed in these polls.

SUNDAY INTERVIEWS:
Click here to watch Obama on Meet the Press yesterday

Click here to watch McCain on This Week yesterday

VEEPSTAKES UPDATE:

Obama said something interestingly cryptic on that Meet the Press interview:

“I’m going to want somebody with integrity; I’m going to want somebody with independence, who’s willing to tell me where he thinks or she thinks I’m wrong; and I’m, I’m going to want somebody who shares a vision of the country where we need to go, that we’ve got to fundamentally change not only our policies, but how our politics works, how business is done in Washington.”

This seems in its language to rule out all Senators, no? But it still makes perfect sense if Obama picks who we predicted he’ll pick…

& the timing? Who knows! More on this from MSNBC’s Chuck Todd:

— Veep Timing: The CW was that neither candidate could name their running mate during the Olympics. But with Obama planning a week vacation sometime in August, now the betting is he’ll either name his running mate just before he leaves for vacation (sort of odd, but it would allow a week’s worth of attention ONLY on the running mate) or he’ll announce just after (meaning, second week of Olympics?). It may be tough to break through the Olympics (especially if something unexpected happens), but if there is one political story that could break through, it would be a VP pick. As for McCain, the backseat driving advisers — those who don’t work for McCain but send him advice through the media — are saying that waiting is still the best bet for the candidate who holds so few timing cards.

& finally, read Mark Halperin of Time Magazine’s take on the “To-Do” lists of both candidates here.

What do you think? & once again, what would you like to see on the Vote08 blog between now & 100 days from now?

Rasmussen conducted the poll in Georgia on July 17th, & it shows little movement from the one we highlighted here, on June 30th.

McCain: 48%

Obama: 39%

Include “leaners” (people who might be persuaded one way or the tother), McCain’s lead widens to 53-42.

& the Bob Barr factor? Apparently not as big as previously estimated:

“Libertarian candidate Bob Barr who served in Congress as part of Georgia’s Congressional delegation picks up 5% of the vote initially, but only 1% when “leaners” are included. This means that up to 5% of voters now say they would vote for Barr but when asked a follow-up question only 1% remain committed to the man some view as a potential spoiler for McCain’s hopes.“

EARLIER: See our take on the results of the latest presidential poll in Tennessee (June 27th) here.

What do you think?

(above: my 4 pets. Hey, it’s my blog, indulge me. No, I don’t know how they lean politically.)

WASHINGTON (AP) - If the presidential election were to go to the dogs, then John McCain looks like the best in show.
A new Associated Press-Yahoo News poll finds that pet owners favor McCain 42 to 37 percent over Barack Obama, with dog owners especially high on the Arizona senator.
Obama doesn’t have a pet at home. But McCain has a menagerie, including two dogs, two turtles, two cats, a ferret, three parakeets and a school of saltwater fish.
On the other hand, the poll also finds that among people who don’t have pets, Obama leads McCain 48 to 34 percent.
But that still leaves McCain looking strong, because 63 percent of all American homes have some kind of pet.
Obama has reportedly promised his daughters a dog once the campaign is over.

Boy have we found more material on this.

Dog That Says “Obama” #1:

Dog That Says “Obama” #2

Parrot Who’s a Huge Obama fan:

[Alas, the animals on the YouTubes who can say “John McCain” are just not there. Please check yourself & let me know if you find any.. if for nothing else in the interest of equal time.]

Here’s a site that helps you determine the party affiliation of your dog.

Click here to find out what kind of dog the Baltimore Sun says McCain would be.

Click here to find out what kind of dog the Baltimore Sun says Obama would be.

& finally, Heaven help us, here’s a site called “Dogs for McCain.”

From Insider Advantage’s Southern Political Report:

Q. 1Georgia Presidential ballot:

McCain: 46%
Obama: 44%
Barr: 4%
Undecided: 6%

Q.2 “If Barack Obama selected Georgia’s former U.S. Senator Sam Nunn as his Vice Presidential running mate, would you be more or less likely to vote for Barack Obama?”

More likely: 51%
Less likely: 11%
No difference/Undecided: 38%

Analysis: Georgia, which has one of the highest African-American voting age populations in the nation along with an unusually young voter age population, remains the hidden battleground of the 2008 campaign. The Obama campaign is saturating television in the state, clearly believing that the 15 electoral votes in Georgia are up for grabs. It’s a credit to John McCain’s personal favorable ratings in the state (which are high) that he has continued to cling to this lead despite having little media presence. The deal breaker could be former United States Senator Sam Nunn, who left the Senate in the mid-1990s. Nunn, known as a top expert of foreign policy, has relatively low name identification in his home state after eleven years out of direct political circulation. But should he receive the nomination, Nunn would almost immediately become known in his home state as a former senator and the survey shows that with such knowledge, a majority of Georgians say they are more likely to vote for Obama. However, that does not equate to a vote for Obama. To determine the actual impact on the vote, one would need a direct comparison. Some suggest, with Florida looking more likely to go McCain, a Barack-Obama/Sam Nunn vs. John McCain/Sonny Perdue survey. Perdue had been mentioned as a potential VP nominee earlier in the year. Perhaps Nunn and Perdue are back on the radar screens.

Oh, bestill my heart, I don’t even want to fathom a dual-Georgia native veepstakes. Can you imagine?

By the way, Obama’s stopping in Georgia today (Tuesday) so we’ll have more on that later.

What do you think of this poll?

& hey, Georgia Vote08 viewers, particularly the hardcore conservatives who reside in the NewsChannel 9 viewing area! Now’s a good time for you to weigh in on Barr!

Here’s the current Gallup standing between Obama & McCain:

How does that compare with past presidential contests after the 4th?

Details (as always, with pictures!) after the jump from an article in Politico titled “Past July 4 Polls Promising for Obama:”

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WASHINGTON (AP) - Which of the top presidential candidates would you prefer having at your summer cookout?
An Associated Press-Yahoo News Poll finds that people who were surveyed would rather barbecue burgers with Barack Obama than John McCain, by a 52 percent to 45 percent margin.
Men are about evenly divided between the two while women prefer Obama by 11 percentage points. Obama is a more popular guest with younger voters while McCain does best with the oldest.
Party label means a lot, with three-quarters of Democrats picking Obama and the same number of Republicans picking McCain. Independents are about evenly split.
The AP-Yahoo News survey of 1,759 adults was conducted online by Knowledge Networks from June 13-23 and had an overall margin of sampling error of plus or minus 2.3 percentage points. The margin of sampling error for subgroups was larger.

Fooey! Vote08 doesn’t believe in false choices! I love that the premise of this quadrennial poll is that you actually have to make a choice among these candidates, as if they’re knocking on your door & you can only let one of them in. Let’s have a 4th-of-July-Eve-Eve fantasy in which ALL of the recent presidential candidates stop by for a bite, shall we?

Okay, fellow barbecue lovers! Let’s hear from you! Which candidate(s) would you like to see at your 4th-of-July barbecue, & what specific dish would you ask them to bring? We eagerly await your comments!

ADDENDUM: (from the Wall Street Journal, March 2nd)

“McCain, dressed in a sweatshirt with a family photo embossed and jeans, spent much of the afternoon turning ribs and chicken over the grill on the wraparound deck of his cabin. He happily disclosed his recipe: a dry rub made up of one-third black pepper, one-third garlic powder and one-third salt. Fresh lemon juice is squeezed over the ribs during a slow cook. The slow cook, he assured observers, allows all the fat to drip away. He promised skeptical eaters that the ribs were practically fat free.”

UPDATE: I asked the entire newsroom to give their responses. Here’s what I have so far:

“You can imagine that I’d love to have Senator Clinton at my next backyard BBQ. I feel confident she shouldn’t be asked to contribute to the meal… but I’m equally confident that the conversation would fill my constant hunger for stimulating conversation. How ’bout seeing what you can arrange?”

“Most elected politicians could supply/bring their own “pork” at your expense of course.”

What say you?

Huzzah! A new Tennessee poll is in! Let’s dive in, shall we?

John McCain leads Barack Obama 51% to 36% in Tennessee, according to the latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state. Though McCain has a strong advantage, his lead has been cut nearly in half since April.

Two months ago, while Obama was still struggling to wrap up the Democratic Presidential Nomination, McCain led 58% to 31% in the Volunteer State. The current poll is the first conducted in the state since Hillary Clinton’s exit from the race.

McCain leads 61% to 29% among men, but the candidates are essentially even among women. McCain draws support from 87% of Republicans and holds a two-to-one advantage among unaffiliated voters. Obama is supported by 74% of Democrats.

The Republican nominee is viewed favorably by 60% of Tennessee voters and unfavorably by 37%. Those numbers are slightly less flattering than two months ago. Obama’s ratings are 42% favorable, 55% unfavorable. His ratings have improved marginally since April.

One in four Tennessee voters say they would be more willing to vote for Barack Obama if Tennessee Governor Phil Bredesen was on the ticket. Twenty-nine percent (29%) said they would be less likely to vote for the Democrats. The Governor earns good or excellent ratings from 56% of Tennessee voters, while 17% think he is doing a poor job.

The survey also found that while 77% of voters in Tennessee say they are willing to vote for an African American president, just 57% say most of their family, friends and co-workers would be willing to do so. Just 11% of voters say they would not be willing to vote for an African American for president, while 16% do not think their peers would either.

Two-thirds of voters in Tennessee (67%) say it is at least somewhat important the candidates choose a running mate from the South. Thirty percent (30%) think this is very important.

Tennessee voters are more split when it comes to the next President and the War in Iraq. While just about half of voters (48%) think it is more important the troops are brought home sooner, nearly the same amount (44%) think winning the war should be top priority. Tennessee voters are slightly more divided on this question than voters nationwide.

Sixty-six percent (66%) of voters in Tennessee think drilling in offshore oil wells should be allowed in order to help reduce fuel prices. One in five voters (20%) disagree. Those results are similar to those found on the national level. Over half of voters (58%) think it is likely fuel prices will drop if offshore drilling is allowed, while a third of voters find this unlikely.

Tennessee has cast its eleven Electoral College votes for the Republican candidate in four out of the last six presidential elections and is rated as “Likely Republican” in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator.

Rasmussen Markets data shows that Republicans are given a 85.0 % chance of winning Tennessee this November.

Digging deeper into the questions & responses is a fascinating exercise. We delve into them in full — & add pictures! — after the jump!

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This nationwide poll is just in from the LA Times:

Head-to-head: Obama 49%, McCain 37%

Add Ralph Nader & Bob Barr into the mix: Obama 48%, McCain 33%

Enthusiastic about their candidate: Democrats 79%, Republicans 58%

White voters: Dead even at 39%

Clinton voters: 11% have defected to McCain

Meanwhile, Gallup has a survey on what issues matter most to voters right now:

What do you think?

Interesting new numbers from InsiderAdvantage:

McCain And Obama Tied In Georgia

(6/19/08) A New InsiderAdvantage / PollPosition survey conducted June 18 of registered likely voters in the November presidential contest shows Sen. John McCain leading Sen. Barack Obama by a single point in Georgia, making the race in Georgia a statistical tie. Libertarian Bob Barr, a former Republican Congressman from Georgia, received 6 percent of the vote.

The telephone survey of 408 registered likely voters is weighted for age, race, gender, and political affiliation. The survey has a margin of error of +/- 5%. It was conducted with InsiderAdvantage’s research partner Majority Opinion Research. PollPosition is InsiderAdvantage’s new branding name (look for additional information and expansion of PollPosition in the coming months).

The Results:

McCain: 44%
Obama: 43%
Barr: 6%
Undecided: 7%

Analysis from InsiderAdvantage CEO Matt Towery:

“As Barack Obama has become the clear presumptive nominee of his party, the race has become defined and voters appear to be taking early stands in the race.

“Georgia is competitive for Obama for several reasons. First, it has a high African-American voting age population (VAP). Second, it has an unusually high percentage of younger voters (18-29). Both of these groups are more in the Obama camp, with black voters already at the 83 percent level and likely to climb.

“Equally important, like its neighbor Florida, Georgia has a high percentage of voters who consider themselves independent. Obama is carrying that critical swing vote by about 10 percent in the poll.

“In this survey, as in almost every survey we have seen or conducted, there is a ‘great divide’ among age groups. Among those 45 years of age and older, McCain is the clear leader. Among voters who are 44 years of age or younger, Obama leads.

“As to the Bob Barr effect, Barr’s numbers dropped slightly overall from our poll of Georgia in March. However, he remains at a 6% level, healthy for a Libertarian. And among senior voters he receives nearly 10% of the vote.

“My view is that Georgia, the 9th largest state in the nation with 15 electoral votes, will remain a major new battleground state through November. This changes the landscape of electoral politics as Georgia, North Carolina, Virginia, and perhaps another surprise southern state, join Florida as potential “swing states,” that cannot be presumed to vote Republican in 2008.”

What do you think of these numbers? Who will win Georgia? Post a comment now!

New polls are in from Quinnipiac. They show a bounce for Obama in three key states:

Pennsylvania: Obama 52, McCain 40

Ohio: Obama 48, McCain 42

Florida: Obama 47, McCain 43

 As MSNBC’s First Read blog points out, it looks like the chances of an Obama-Clinton ticket are even more remote. The Quinnipiac polls show

“Only 21% of Florida voters, 23% of Ohio voters, and 25% of Pennsylvania voters say they’d be more likely to support the Democratic ticket if Clinton were a part of it. In each case, a slightly smaller percentage said they’d be less likely to vote for that “dream” ticket, with a majority saying it would make no difference.

Most significantly, Quinnipiac found that independent voters in those key battlegrounds believe that the Illinois senator should not select his New York counterpart — and by double-digit margins in two of the three.”

What do you think?

Details here. 

Highlights: Obama leads McCain, 47-41 overall. But this race is so far from over you should take those numbers with a grain of salt. It is always expected that the week after a candidate secures the nomination he (or she) will get a bit of a bump in the polls.

In June of 2004, the same NBC poll had Bush leading Kerry, 45-44 (Bush led Kerry throughout the campaign that year).

It’s safe to say the environment has changed, though.

Diving into the numbers a little further:

Obama leads with:

    African-Americans (83-7)

    Hispanics (62-28)

    Women (52-33)

    Catholics (47-40)

    Independents (41-36)

    Blue-Collar Workers (47-42)

    All White Women (46-39)

    & Clinton voters (61-19)

McCain leads among

    Evangelicals (69-21)

    White Men (55-35)

    All Men (49-41)

    Whites (47-41) [* note - that’s an exact reverse of the overall poll finding] 

    & White Suburban Women (44-38)

 Chuck Todd writes at MSNBC’s “First Read” blog:

“How important is that lead? NBC/WSJ co-pollster Neil Newhouse (R) explains that Republican candidates always expect to win white men by a substantial margin, but it’s white women that usually decide the race. “If a Republican wins among white women, we usually win that election,” he says, noting that George Bush carried that group in 2000 and 2004.

What do the numbers tell you? Come on! Post a comment!

& so here we are on the last primary day! Hard to believe that the 2008 Iowa caucuses were just a short 17 years ago.

Nope! Now it’s a matter of waiting for this particular historical metaphor to happen (indulge us, please)…

or…. maybe not?

Stay tuned! It’s only going to get more exciting from here.

Hey, why not impress your friends & go ahead & call what will happen in the next 72 hours!

..nothing?

..she (finally) capitulates?

..he offers her the VP ticket?

What? Give us your best guess!

Happy Kentucky Derby weekend!

We’re a fan.. we’ve been to 9 of them. The above photo is the 1998 race from our perspective in the stands.

After the jump.. find out which horses the candidates are picking to win the Run for the Roses & see how the polls are shaping up for the other “biggest horse race in town.”

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Very interesting NBC/Wall Street Journal Poll out today about what the current campaign’s biggest political albatrosses are at the moment (what do I mean by “albatross?” click here). In other words, what could be a “dealbreaker” for voters with any particular candidate.

We’ll dive into the details after the jump… you may be surprised which candidate has the biggest liability.. & what it comes from.

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