Today’s runoff day.
Polls in Georgia are open until 7.
What’s at stake?
Some good analysis from Time Magazine’s Michael Grunwald
The Blog Formerly Known As Vote '08
Dedicated to Advancing the Idea That the Other Side May Have a Point
Archive for the 'Polls' Category
DECIPHERING GEORGIA RUNOFF POLLS
November 14th, 2008, 10:07 am by Dan Lehr
.
From WMAZ:
A campaign visit from Barack Obama would sway more voters in Georgia’s U.S. Senate runoff than John McCain’s visit on behalf of Saxby Chambliss, according to a 13WMAZ-SurveyUSA poll.
The poll of 550 registered voters says 30 percent would more likely to vote for challenger Jim Martin if Obama came to Georgia to campaign on his behalf, but 29 percent would be less likely.
&
- 45 percent of the voters polled said they had favorable opinions of Chambliss, the Republican incumbent. 29 percent had unfavorable opinion, 19 percent were neutral, 7 percent had no opinion.
– More voters had unfavorable than favorable opinions of Martin: 34 percent liked him, 37 percent didn’t, 18 percent were neutral and 10 percent had no opinion.
– 87 percent of the voters said they’ll vote in the runoff. Eight percent said they wouldn’t, and 5 percent they weren’t sure. Ninety-five percent of Republicans were sure they would vote compared to 85 percent of Democrats.
The poll did not ask people how they intended to vote.
THE HIGH WATER MARK + 3 MONTHS
November 8th, 2008, 12:13 pm by Dan Lehr
~~~August 31st~~~
.
~~>the Sunday after McCain picks Palin<~~
.
[IN TERMS OF POLLING, NEAR THE HIGH WATER MARK OF McCAIN'S CAMPAIGN]
.
How did state polls move in the next 3 months?
.
Click here for the answer.
LIVE BLOGGING THE FINAL DAY
November 3rd, 2008, 5:58 pm by Dan Lehr
What’s going on?
In this post, which will remain up until Tuesday night, I’m pulling back the curtain & showing you exactly what news about campaign 2008 I am checking throughout the day.
The most recent entry will be at the top; to start from the beginning, scroll to the bottom.
& I want to hear what you think! Click here to post a comment.
Calvin Can’t Stop Talking about McCain’s Tennessee Stop
Amazing on a day when his beloved Tennessee Vols are in the news.. Calvin says he’s got a better idea for McCain’s strategy in winning NC & VA than stopping in Blountville:
A campaign stop in the Tri-Cities was bad strategy for McCain, trying to woo SW Virginia and Western NC voters.. True, two of the three TV stations with strong VHF signals (WCYB-TV, Channel 5 and WJHL-TV, Channel 11), do indeed blanket all of SW Virginia and part of Western North Carolina.
But SW Virginia voters work and shop in Tri-Cities, Tennessee. As a result, they are usually politically aligned with their neighbors in Upper East Tennessee.. SW Virginia voters are mostly Republican, voting the same way upper East Tennessee has voted for generations, and this includes absentee voting, early voting, and Election Day-of voting.
A Republican visit by a presidential candidate and covered heavily on Tri-Cities TV, only reinforces the way SW Virginia voters are going to vote anyway.
AND, Tri-Cities stations only get marginally viewership from Western North Carolina counties, and even then, mostly along the TN-NC border, because the mountains cut the signals off.
A much better media consideration for McCain would have been, a stop in Asheville, North Carolina, and then one in Roanoke, Virginia.. The 3 main reasons being:
1) Only two years ago, Western North Carolina elected Democrat Heath Shuler to Congress, and Tri-Cities station signals simply don’t reach that far down into that state. 2) The Roanoke TV market. A McCain visit in Roanoke would have had more of an impact on Central Virginia voters that all watch WSLS-TV, WDBJ-TV and WSET-TV from Roanoke-Lynchburg, and would have given McCain double-coverage, because Tri-Cities TV stations, mindful of their SW Virginia audience, would cover it extensively for their SW Virginia viewers anyway.
3) WLOS-TV, Asheville. With a transmitter signal coming from atop one of the highest points in the Eastern United States, and blanketing ALL of Western North Carolina, a McCain visit would have saturated the western third of the state, including that Democratic pocket that elected Heath Shuler, and also have been covered extensively by the rest of the North Carolina media.
Thanks, Calvin! .
Election Day Times
Mon/2:07pm
Click here for a full rundown of election times in Tennessee, Georgia, Alabama & North Carolina.
.
Mor McCane Mispellingz
Mon/1:49pm
Think Progress has discovered three instances of misspelled words in McCain’s ads that have aired in the last month.
Come on, guys! Do you really have to get them out that fast?
.
The Dog That Didn’t Bark
Mon/1:23pm
The Politico’s Jonathan Martin speculates what the 2008 campaign would look like if McCain & surrogates used Rev. Wright as an issue more:
“Conversations with a number of veteran GOP consultants indicate that using Wright may have helped McCain with one set of voters — but would have hurt with others and not ultimately proved decisive in a contest subsumed by larger external forces such as the economic crisis and the unpopularity of President Bush and the Republican Party.”
McCain deserves credit for not ‘going there.’
As Liddy Dole is about to find out, attacking someone’s faith only ends up hurting the attacker in the end.
.
Why’s He in Tennessee Today?
Mon/1:18pm
He’s stopping in Blountville - you can be assured I’ll be looking for clips to post later today.
But why Blountville? He’s got the Volunteer State wrapped up.
Marc Ambinder says:
So why is Sen. McCain campaigning in Blountville, TN?
It has nothing to do with Blountville.
It has everything to do with the parts of rural North Carolina and rural Virginia that share its media market.
NewsChannel9 anchor & expert in all things ‘upper-east Tennessee’ Calvin Sneed says:
“I already knew that.. One-third of the audience that WCYB-TV and WJHL-TV reach are in Southwest Virginia up to Roanoake, and Western North Carolina, within a 70 mile circumference of Asheville. Too bad Kentucky is not a swing state. Those two stations also blanket Eastern-Southeastern Kentucky. I also knew two weeks ago, he’d be coming to Tri-Cities before the end of the campaign.”
.
Good Gravy!
Mon/1:12PM
As if Georgia’s not enough (scroll down), check out North Carolina’s polls, which have tightened as of today.
.
Mapping a McCain Win
Mon/11:48am
Nate Silver looks at several computer models. His top projection is above.
.
If You’re Reading This, You’re Part of the Revolution
Mon/10:47am
Look at these numbers from Pew, which shows internet usage has TRIPLED this year, while TV & newspaper usage remains static.
Truly amazing.
.
“My Wife Made Me Canvass for Obama”
Mon/10:40am
.
The Five States to Watch on Election Night
Mon/10:34am
Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight.com (one of the true internet stars of Campaign 2008) says the states to keep an eye on will be:
1. Virginia
2. Colorado
3. Pennsylvania
4. Ohio
5. Nevada
.
Does Obama Realistically Have a Shot at Arizona?
Mon/10:30 am
Marc Ambinder speculates & has some things to watch in the Grand Canyon State tomorrow night.
.
Not All TN Polling Times Are the Same
Mon/10:16am
The election director in Polk County, TN just e-mailed NewsChannel9:
Please have Channel 9 broadcast Polk, Meigs, and McMinn County Polling Hours on Tuesday, November 4, 2008, to BEGIN AT 9:00 A.M. AND CLOSE AT 8:00 P.M. Your viewers hear Hamilton County hours and assume ours is the same. Your help will be greatly appreciated.
,
“Phone Gap” in the Polls?
Mon/10:12am
“The cellphone polls have Obama ahead by an average of 9.4 points; the landline-only polls, 5.1 points.”
- Nate Silver, FiveThirtyEight.com
. 
Obama in Cincinnati
Mon/10:03am
Above: Obama in Cincinnati yesterday.
I’m keeping an eye out for clips of the candidates today, so check back later.
.
McCain in Florida
Mon/10:01am
Above: a midnight rally in Miami, last night.
,
Where the Race Stands
Mon/9:54am
Above: NBC’s Chuck Todd maps out McCain’s path to victory.
From Chuck & others at MSNBC’s First Read blog:
*** Obama has a clear lead: With just a day left until Election Day, Obama holds an eight-point lead over McCain among likely voters, 51%-43%, according to the final national NBC/WSJ poll before the election. That’s down slightly from Obama’s 53%-to-42% advantage from almost two weeks ago. Still, to put his current lead into perspective, the last NBC/WSJ survey before the 2004 presidential election showed Bush with a slim one-point edge over Kerry, 48%-47%. Bush went on to win that election, 51%-48%. Looking inside the crosstabs, Obama’s advantage is largely based on his overwhelming success with African Americans (winning them 90%-3%), Latinos (68%-27%), and 18 to 34 year olds (59%-38%). It’s about as solid of a three-legged support stool as any candidate could ask for. Obama also wins independents (48%-38%), blue-collar voters (51%-44%), suburban voters (49%-44%), and Catholics (49%-46%). McCain, meanwhile, has the advantage among evangelicals (78%-19%), those 65 and older (53%-40%), white men (54%-42%), and white women (48%-47%). One more thing: 30% say they’ve already voted, and those voters break by an identical 51%-43% margin. One thing that might keep the McCain folks somewhat hopeful about our numbers: We have Democrats with a +10 advantage on party ID; McCain’s team believes the electorate won’t produce that margin tomorrow.
*** Liking McCain but loving Obama: The poll also shows that McCain and Obama are pretty well liked by voters. McCain has a 47%-39% fav/unfav rating, while Obama’s is larger at 56%-35%. But what’s striking is the intensity gap — almost twice as many respondents (44%) rate Obama “very positive” than they do for McCain (24%). In short, McCain’s supporters like him, but Obama’s LOVE him. Think about that 44% number for a minute: Obama’s overall ballot number is 51%, meaning that 86% of Obama’s supporters have a VERY positive view of him. Not since Reagan in 1980 has a base of supporters loved its nominee so much. Also, for the second-straight NBC/WSJ poll, Palin has a net-negative fav/unfav (39%-48%), while Biden has a net-positive one (50%-30%). In fact, if you add up Obama’s and Biden’s favorable scores, you get 106; for McCain-Palin, it’s 86.
.
Good Grief!
Mon/9:45am
Georgia has become THE state to watch.
It’s quite possible (& I chose it as such in the pool) that it could be the state with the closest margin of victory for either candidate.
The Senate race, I believe, is still Saxby Chambliss’ to lose.. but that prediction gets upended, I think, with an Obama upset.
What do you think?
.
Where They’re Headed in the Final Stretch
Mon/9:39am
From the AP: “UNDATED (AP) - As if today’s fever-pitch campaigning weren’t enough, the presidential candidates will break tradition and stump on Election Day. John McCain goes to Colorado and New Mexico. Barack Obama swings through Indiana before returning to Chicago. McCain rallied Latino voters just after midnight in Miami. Later this morning, he takes his message to Tampa, then to Tennessee, where he’ll be able to hit the Virginia media market. Pennsylvania, Indiana, New Mexico, Nevada and Arizona also will see McCain. Running mate Sarah Palin is trying to woo conservatives in Ohio, Missouri, Iowa, Colorado and Nevada. Obama’s route is geographically less demanding. He rallies this morning in Jacksonville, Fla., and later goes to Virginia and North Carolina. His running mate, Joe Biden, is going to Missouri, Ohio and Pennsylvania. Polls show the six closest states are Florida, Indiana, Missouri, North Carolina, Nevada and Ohio. The campaigns also are running aggressive ground games elsewhere, including Iowa, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Colorado and Virginia.”
Tennessee? Yes, McCain will be in Blountville. Read more here.
.
What’s Gonna Happen?
Mon/9:32am
Click here for a post I added featuring questions for an election night pool that I’m taking part in.
Feel free to register your predictions in the comments section!
.
When Polls Close Tomorrow
Mon/8:43am
Courtesy of the Huffington Post
This all gets tossed out the window if lines are long.. which may be why we may not know results of the states on that map until well after the polls are supposed to close..
.
Joe the Plumber Questions Obama’s Patriotism
Mon/8:42am
Above: Joe the Plumber on the Fox News Channel over the weekend.
.
Palin “Punk’d”
Mon/8:38am
Above: two Canadian comedians fool Palin into thinking she’s talking to the President of France.
. 
That’s a New One
Mon/8:35am
Above: South Carolina Senator Lindsay Graham, saying the polls demonstrate Barack Obama is “the virtual incumbent,” & thus can’t win in this environment that’s hungry for change.
. 
New Anti-Biden Ad: “Lies & Sighs”
Mon/8:28am
This ad is effective, but made slightly less so by the misspelling on the screen, 0:56 seconds in:
. 
Pennsylvania Republicans Bring Up Wright in New Ad
Mon/8:20am
(Warning: blasphemous language)
Why is Pennsylvania such a battleground? Voters don’t vote early there.
.
Obamacan Update
Mon/8:13am
“Lifelong Republicans turning to Obama has been one of the themes I’ve picked up in this campaign, ever since, back in January, I ran into Bryant Jones, an Idaho-raised Republican who’d volunteered for Obama in South Carolina.For Jones, it was disenchantment with “my-way-or-the-highway politics and the same old faces.””
“My-way-or-the-highway” politics. That’s a major reason President Bush was such a failure (read more of my thoughts on that here, in yesterday’s post). & I hope that both Democrats and Republicans heed the lesson in this: no matter who is president - but particularly if a President Obama finds himself with a Democratic majority in Congress - we can’t afford to discount a person’s idea because they aren’t a member of the right party. Obama will fall, & fall hard if he tries this. This is the singular reason President Bush did such a bad job - all recent presidents from all recent parties recognized they’d never succeed by paying attention to the needs of just one constituency. UPDATE: Mon/10:23am: More Obamacans explain themselves here & here. .
Why a McCain Win Would Be a Good Thing for Liberals
Mon/8:09am
The conservative New York Times columnist (who bears quite a bit of responsibility for bringing Sarah Palin to the world, not to mention the Iraq war) writes liberals should think the world has ended if John McCain wins, for reasons including:
“It would be a victory for an underdog. Liberals are supposed to like underdogs. McCain is a lonely guy standing up against an unprecedentedly well-financed, superorganized, ExxonMobil-like Obama juggernaut. A McCain upset victory would be a classic liberal happy ending.”
.
Why She’s Failed to Catch Fire
Mon/8:02am
Of course she’s caught fire among members of the Republican base. But she’s certainly not winning over independents or moderate Republicans (scroll down for a new poll for more on that).
Peter Beinart suggests it may be that her appearance came at the end of the ‘Culture War:”
“Why has America turned on Sarah Palin? Obviously, her wobbly television interviews haven’t helped. Nor have the drip, drip of scandals from Alaska, which have tarnished her reformist image. But Palin’s problems run deeper, and they say something fundamental about the political age being born. Palin’s brand is culture war, and in America today culture war no longer sells. The struggle that began in the 1960s — which put questions of racial, sexual and religious identity at the forefront of American politics — may be ending. Palin is the end of the line.” .
Strategic Strengths & Weaknesses
Mon/7:57am
Great summary of what went right for Obama & wrong for McCain from E.J. Dionne:
ON McCAIN:
“In state after state during the primaries, McCain drew heavily on the votes of independents, moderates and Republicans who were unhappy with Bush. But instead of carrying on as the un-Bush who defied conservative orthodoxy, McCain embraced the right for fear of losing it. He chose Sarah Palin as his running mate, which finally earned him cries of approval from the GOP base but sent moderate voters scurrying Obama’s way.”"
ON OBAMA:
“He saw an opening for a young African American senator with brief Washington experience, realizing that the very unlikeliness of his candidacy would enhance its attractiveness.
He did more than give Americans a chance to ease the burdens of race. He invited them to embrace his very newness and thereby move past the 1960s, the ’80s, the ’90s and the Bush era all at once. “It’s time to turn the page,” Obama would say, and there were many pages Americans wanted to turn.
His post-everything candidacy, wrapped in a powerful rhetoric of hope, was immensely attractive to the young. They became the happy warriors of campaign manager David Plouffe’s meticulously organized national machine. It worked its magic in neighborhoods never before blessed with even a precinct captain.”
Pretty much the race, in a nutshell.
.
ABC Poll: He’s a Net Positive, She’s a Net Negative
Mon/7:53am
Respondents’ reactions to Sarah Palin, the GOP vice presidential nominee, are also closely linked to how much they factor age into their preferences: Sixty percent of those who said age is an important consideration said Palin lowers the odds that they will vote for the GOP ticket. Overall, nearly half of all respondents said they are less likely to vote for McCain because she is on the ticket, a sharp increase from previous polls.
By contrast, Sen. Joseph R. Biden Jr. is a net positive for Obama, even as nearly six in 10 respondents said the senator from Delaware does not influence their views one way or the other.
.
ABC Poll: McCain’s ‘Socialist’ Attacks Aren’t Sticking
Mon/7:50am
The new Washington Post-ABC News tracking poll puts Obama well out in front over Republican John McCain and finds that Obama has firmly reestablished his advantage on handling the economy, beaten back a challenge on taxes and has an edge in terms of perceptions about which candidate would better deal with an unexpected major crisis.
The McCain campaign, meanwhile, has countered with improved outreach into the tossup states, neutralizing what had been a big advantage for the Democrat 10 days ago. More than a third of all voters in the six states The Post calls “up for grabs” — Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Montana, Missouri and Indiana — said they have heard from the McCain campaign in the past week. That is up sharply from the third week of October and on par with the number who have been contacted by Obama’s campaign.
Obama and McCain roughly split the vote in the six states combined — 51 percent back Obama, and 47 percent support McCain. Overall in the tracking poll, Obama holds an 11-point advantage, at the top end of the seven-to-11-point range he has held since the final presidential debate in mid-October.”
.
Live from New York
Mon/7:39am:
Watch McCain’s funny Saturday Night Live appearance here. Check this Vote08 post to see a clip of an earlier SNL McCain appearance (he sings Streisand!).
UPDATE/Mon-10:09am
James Fallows says this SNL appearance shows that McCain has accepted defeat.
3 DAYS OUT
November 1st, 2008, 1:46 pm by Dan Lehr
.
.
***Reminder: You Have Until 5pm Today to Vote Early in North Carolina***
Early voting’s been extended, too; read more about it here.
.
Obama in Nevada
.
McCain & Ah-nold
Above: Columbus, Ohio, last night.
.
Palin in Pennsylvania
Above: a home-video from Latrobe, last night.
.
Biden Home-State Stumping
Above: Joe Biden in Delaware, at his alma-mater
.
Chutes & Ladders in the Senate
The Tennessee Senate race (between Alexander & Tuke) has nowhere near the excitement as Georgia’s or North Carolina’s on Tuesday night.
But you should pay close attention to the degree of GOP losses in the Senate.
The more losses there are, the more freshman Tennessee Senator Bob Corker has to gain on the Senate hierarchical ladder. He has the potential to climb a few ‘bonus’ rungs if experienced GOPers like Alaska’s Ted Stevens or NC’s Elizabeth Dole or KY’s Mitch McConnell find defeat.
.
Unintentionally Transparent?
Senator Saxby Chambliss, (R) Georgia, yesterday:
“There has always been a rush to the polls by African-Americans early,” he said at the square in Covington, a quick stop on a bus tour as the campaign entered its final week. He predicted the crowds of early voters would motivate Republicans to turn out. “It has also got our side energized, they see what is happening,” he said.
Careful with that “our side,” Senator.
Check the latest polls in the GA Senate race here.
.
How He’ll Win, by McCain’s Chief Strategist
Read Rick Davis’ memo here, with Marc Ambinder’s observations in italics.
.
McCain’s Horrible Month
Charles Blow recaps.
.
Any Surprises Left?
Several pollsters weigh in here.
Keep in mind the impact of any “late surprise” is diminished by early voting.
.
A McCain Endorsement the Obama People Were Happy to Disseminate
Above: Dick Cheney stumps for McCain in Wyoming.
BARACK OBAMA: 7 DAYS OUT
October 28th, 2008, 8:20 am by Dan Lehr
[above: Obama the Cabbage Patch candidate]
Above: the “One Week” closing argument speech given in Canton, Ohio yesterday.
.
Figuring Out What Those Undecideds Will Do
The Weekly Standard’s Arnon Mishkin dubs it “the Obama Effect” in an attempt to crack the nut that is this year’s undecided voters:
Where there is a perception that there is a “socially acceptable” choice, respondents who do not articulate it, are likely not to agree with it. Are they lying? Or just genuinely torn about taking that route or another? I am not going to psychoanalyze what is going on in their heads, but in the end, the pattern tends to be that those undecided voters vote against that “socially acceptable” choice.
Nate over at FiveThirtyEight.com refutes this theory by Bill Greener at Salon.com, who says Obama cannot win if his numbers are under 50%, & he uses Tennessee’s 2006 Senate race as an example:
“Problem #2: Greener cherry-picks his data in literally every race. He isn’t even subtle about it. Here is a good example:
How about Tennessee, where black Democrat Harold Ford was up against white Republican Bob Corker for Republican Bill Frist’s old U.S. Senate seat? Harold Ford did slightly better than Steele and Blackwell. The day before the election, he was within a point of Corker, 47 to 48 with 5 percent undecided, according to OnPoint Polling. On Nov. 7, Corker got 50.7 percent of the vote, Ford got 48 and an assortment of independents took 1.3 percent. Ford was able to pick up one out of every five undecided voters.
OnPoint was the only polling firm to show the Tennessee race within 1 point on the eve of the election. Meanwhile, Gallup showed a 3-point lead for Corker, Rasmussen showed a 4-point lead for Corker, SurveyUSA and Pollmetrix showed 5-point leads, and Mason-Dixon showed a 12-point lead. Corker eventually won by 2.7 points, smaller than the margin predicted by all firms but OnPoint.”
If you’re interested in trying to figure out 2008’s undecideds, I recommend clicking on all the links provided above.
What do you think?
SARAH PALIN: 9 DAYS OUT
October 26th, 2008, 8:05 am by Dan Lehr
Above: a home-made video of a rally in Des Moines, Iowa.
Why Iowa? The latest poll has the state a deep shade of blue!
Perhaps.. someone’s thinking about the year 2012? ..Maybe?
What do you think?
Palin’s Poll Plummet
“In polling conducted Wednesday and Thursday evenings, after the disclosure that the Republican National Committee used political funds to help Palin assemble a wardrobe for the campaign, 51 percent said they have a negative impression of her. Fewer, 46 percent, said they have a favorable view. That marks a stark turnaround from early September, when 59 percent of likely voters held positive opinions.
The declines in Palin’s ratings have been even more substantial among the very voters Republicans aimed to woo. The percentage of white women viewing her favorably dropped 21 points since early September; among independent women, it fell 24 points.”
THE GROUND GAME: OCTOBER 22nd
October 22nd, 2008, 2:30 pm by Dan Lehr2 New Polls Show 2 Different Realities
(also after the jump: “Battle of the Robocalls”)
JOHN McCAIN: OCTOBER 22nd
October 22nd, 2008, 2:25 pm by Dan Lehr
TODAY’S EPISODE: Will McCain Do the Wright Thing?…On the Stump in the Granite State…An Interview with Don Imus…His Biggest Weakness…On the Stump in Pennsylvania
THE GROUND GAME: OCTOBER 10th
October 10th, 2008, 9:07 am by Dan Lehr
How bad are things for McCain in terms of the polls right now?
Click here to see the current state of the polls in West Virginia, a state where Clinton cleaned Obama’s clock earlier this year.
FURTHER READING: “Working Class White Voters Ditching McCain“
THE GROUND GAME: OCTOBER 9th
October 9th, 2008, 4:41 pm by Dan Lehr
A Senate Race Suddenly Worth Watching
At left: Georgia Democratic Senate Challenger Jim Martin.
At right: Georgia incumbent Senator Saxby Chambliss (R)
Polls Taken a Month Ago (September 7-9)
Chambliss: 57%
Martin: 28%
Polls Taken This Week (October 5-7)
Chambliss: 47%
Martin: 44%
Yes, Chambliss did vote for the Wall Street bailout.
& it looks like he’s paying dearly for it.
& this is probably partly why Chambliss is buying ad time on NewsChannel9.
Electoral Map Update:
Check out this map from RealClearPolitics. It shows that if McCain were to take all the toss-up states.. Obama would still have an electoral majority of 277.
George Will today:
“Obama is competitive in so many states that President Bush carried in 2004 — including Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Ohio, Indiana, Iowa, Colorado and New Mexico — it is not eccentric to think he could win at least 350 of the 538 electoral votes.
If that seems startling, that is only because the 2000 and 2004 elections were won with 271 and 286, respectively. In the 25 elections from 1900 to 1996, the winners averaged 402.6. This, even though the 1900 and 1904 elections — before Arizona, New Mexico and Oklahoma attained statehood, and before the size of the House was fixed at 435 members in 1911 — allocated only 447 and 476 electoral votes, respectively. The 12 elections from 1912 through 1956, before Hawaiian and Alaskan statehood, allocated only 531.
In the 25 20th-century elections, only three candidates won with fewer than 300 — McKinley with 292 in 1900, Wilson with 277 in 1916 and Carter with 297 in 1976. President Harry Truman won 303 in 1948 even though Strom Thurmond’s Dixiecrat candidacy won 39 that otherwise would have gone to Truman. After John Kennedy won in 1960 with just 303, the average winning total in the next nine elections, up to the 2000 cliffhanger, was 421.4. “
NEW BATTLEGROUND POLLS GIVING THE GOP JITTERS
October 1st, 2008, 10:49 am by Dan Lehr
THE 1st PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE IN 3D: THE ECONOMIC CRISIS
September 29th, 2008, 1:23 pm by Dan Lehr
(
LEHRER: All right, let’s go back to my question. How do you all stand on the recovery plan? And talk to each other about it. We’ve got five minutes. We can negotiate a deal right here.
But, I mean, are you — do you favor this plan, Senator Obama, and you, Senator McCain? Do you — are you in favor of this plan?
OBAMA: We haven’t seen the language yet. And I do think that there’s constructive work being done out there. So, for the viewers who are watching, I am optimistic about the capacity of us to come together with a plan.
The question, I think, that we have to ask ourselves is, how did we get into this situation in the first place?
TIMES-FREE PRESS POLL SURPRISES NO ONE
September 29th, 2008, 1:22 pm by Dan Lehr
…Guess what? Tennessee’s a ‘red state.’
NASHVILLE — With just 37 days to go until Election Day, Republican presidential candidate John McCain continues to hold a double-digit lead in Tennessee over Democrat Barack Obama, a new statewide poll shows.
Read more about the poll’s findings here.
- Broadcast Services
- TV Listings
- Public EEO Report
- WTVC DTV Report
- Science Theatre
- Online Services
- RSS Feeds
- Advertiser Index
- Yellow Pages
- Related Sites
- Total Visual Concepts
6 DAYS OUT
October 29th, 2008, 12:00 pm by Dan LehrJUST 6 MORE DAYS
The Infomercial
I thought it was well-done. It certainly beats Ross Perot’s informercial from 1992.
He kept it positive - didn’t mention the word “Bush” once.
Watch & tell me what you think.
Read McCain’s ‘prebuttal’ to the infomercial here.
A lot of you have voted already. As of Monday, more than 50,000 people have voted in Hamilton County.
Which way are early voters leaning? Marc Ambinder:
Obama leads by 16 points among likely voters, by 17 points among independents, by 13 points among men, by 20 points among women, is tied among whites, and is up eight among white Catholics. Of the 15 percent of the sample who’ve already voted, Obama leads by 19 points (although this subsample has a fairly large MoE). 74% of Obama’s backers say they support him “strongly,” which is 20 points higher than the percentage who say the same about their support for McCain.
Click here for the full Pew results, as of Tuesday.
Here’s a site where you can see the early voting numbers already in from around the country. Very useful.
From that site I glean:
The number of early voters so far in Tennessee is 45% of the total number of votes in 2004. (wow.)
&, 36.4% of the ENTIRE number of votes cast in Georgia in 2004 have been cast already this year. (again, wow.)
The Peach state is turning into one of THE states to watch this year - & I had written that state off months ago, back when Bob Barr’s Georgia support started dropping off.
But now - look at this chart over at Pollster.com. We have ourselves a real nail-biter, folks.
& not just the presidential race. The battle for Saxby Chambliss’ Senate seat remains intense.
The two latest polls come from polling firms that lean either way.
The right-leaning Strategic Vision poll has Chambliss up by 2, & McCain up by 6.
& it’s possible that Georgia may be the last Senate race called - as in called several weeks after election night. MSNBC’s First Read blog explains:
“If Martin wins, he’ll have Obama to thank because the surge in African-American turnout is clearly benefiting the Democrat. By the way, Georgia could be the state that is the final race called in the country. Why? The state has that quirky runoff law, and a third-party candidate in the race might hold one of the major party candidates under 50%. The last time Georgia hosted a Senate runoff was the last time the country elected a new Democratic president: 1992, when the election of Clinton ended up helping the Republicans pull the Senate upset (Paul Coverdell defeated Wyche Fowler). This time, however, Republicans fear that an Obama victory will only energize African Americans in the runoff and make Chambliss’ path to victory even more difficult.”
Speaking of African-American turnout, it’s huge in Georgia - check it out. Georgia’s Secretary of State reports that 35% of early voters are African-American - more than double the percentage of the state’s population.
& there seems to be a correlation between a state’s African-American voting population & percentage of early voter turnout. FiveThirtyEight.com’s Nate Silver has the details here. In short, the higher the percentage of blacks in a state, the higher early voter turnout is. The states with the highest turnout are Georgia, North Carolina & Louisiana.
Can McCain count on voters who make up their minds in this final week? The trends (from Pollster.com) from past Presidential elections, in terms of their numbers, don’t look promising:
Click this link (again, to Pollster.com) to find out which way those last-minute voters swing.
.
But still, interestingly, yet probably unsurprisingly, Obama still faces a major disadvantage with voters down here in that long-GOP stronghold, the South, per ABC News:
Obama is outperforming any Democrat back to Jimmy Carter among white voters, getting 45 percent to McCain’s 52 percent. But in the South, it is a very different story. Obama fares worse among Southern whites than any Democrat since George McGovern in 1972.
Whites in the East and West tilt narrowly toward Obama (he’s up 8 and 7 points, respectively), and the two run about evenly among those in the Midwest. By contrast, Southern whites break more than 2 to 1 for McCain, 65 percent to 32 percent.
.
SIX DAYS.
Barack Obama
His informercial appears on most of network TV tonight… except for ABC (read why here). Needless to say, I’m ashamed of my parent network about this. It’s airing “Pushing Daisies” instead, & running some frankly offensive promos about it.
Above: wet, wet wet conditions in Chester, Pennsylvania on Tuesday. Doesn’t look fun at all.
.
Above: Obama making calls to undecided voters in Colorado.
.
Has Obama fudged his “no tax increases for those making under $250,000″ promise this week? Marc Ambinder does some fact-checking.
.
Michelle Obama appeared on Jay Leno Monday. Click here to watch.
.
Why the Right’s ‘Kitchen Sink’ Philosophy is Failing
From the Toot:
John McCain
Above: at a joint rally with Sarah Palin in Hershey Pennsylvania on Tuesday.
He also appeared in North Carolina..
…but, interestingly, without incumbent GOP Senator Elizabeth Dole. (this may be why)
.
Speaking of absences, someone’s face appears to be conspicuously absent from his own party’s website.
.
Is the ‘Divided Government’ Argument Going to Work?
It’s the major card McCain has left to play. But Newsweek’s Andrew Romano is pessimistic. Former Bush staffer Peter Wehner hsays the party needs to return to its reformist roots [which, I'd add, is what John McCain should have pushed harder for - challenging his party to return to its fundamental principles - instead of blatantly pandering to its base, which has spent the past year essentially rooting for the status quo, or at least is blind to why the status quo is in such a sorry state].
Here’s a ‘Silver Lining’ for Republicans, though:
Single-party government rarely works for very long. It tends to overreach when there are no limits to those in power (see Congress/President Bush, 2002-2006). If this plays out, that will bode well for the beginning of a comeback for the now-battered GOP. [though I will say that if you sat on your hands & approved of how things were run under Republican leadership, you have a smaller rhetorical leg to stand on.]
& here’s a reason Democrats might prefer divided government:
['divided' here being less than a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate]
If this crazy year ends the way the trends are looking - that Obama will be elected - Obama’s historical standing would improve if he brought about change with the help & support of the minority party.
.
The Keystone State Conundrum
Why is McCain behind Obama in the Pennsylvania polls? Michael Barone hazards a guess:
“My hypothesis is that that is because places like the Philly suburbs are places where the recent decline in household wealth has been most conspicuous. Housing prices mean a lot more to you when your house started off at $400,000 and declined to $290,000 than they did when you started off (as may be typical of Scranton or a blue-collar town in metro Pittsburgh) at $140,000 and declined to $110,000. Newspaper coverage of our current economic distress focuses on the very poor (like a recent Washington Post story on North Carolina, which focused on an ex-convict in a cheap motel in Charlotte), but the people who are getting hurt most visibly in their lifelong project of accumulating wealth are the more affluent. They’re the ones whose house values have most visibly and spectacularly declined, and whose 401(k) accounts and stock portfolios have tanked in the last few months as well. Folks in Scranton or in the cheap motel in Charlotte didn’t expect to live comfortably ever after off their increased house values, 401(k)’s, and Merrill Lynch accounts; a $700 monthly check from Social Security is about what they have long expected and that’s not in danger (yet). Folks in the Philly suburbs did expect to live comfortably off such assets.”
& he concludes
“The irony here is that voters motivated by anger at the decline in their wealth seem about to elect a president who has promised to embark on wealth-destroying policies.”
.
What Hath Karl Rove Wrought?
The exodus of a chunk of voters - Libertarians - who traditionally vote Republican, that’s what.
.
Joe Biden
Here’s a view-from-the-crowd at a Joe rally in New Port Richey, Florida on Monday. He remained in Florida on Tuesday.
Sarah Palin
Above: at a rally in Hershey, Pennsylvania, appearing with McCain.
.
Sadly, there appears to be quite a few reports of ‘ugly Americanism‘ at her rallies, & that’s a shame for Palin & her supporters, who in my opinion should quickly & forcefully speak out about those who would tarnish her image, especially if you are hoping she becomes the Republican party’s standard-bearer after the election.
That’s it for now! I know it’s a lot to digest, but please feel free to comment on anything mentioned above. ALL views are welcome here.
& check back later in the day, as I’ll provide more info in this post. Let me know what you think of the ‘one-post’ format. I think I’ll stick to doing it this way through the home stretch.
Posted in: Ads • Barack Obama • Commentary • Joe Biden • John McCain • Polls • Sarah Palin • Strategy • Stump Speeches • The Ballot Box • The Democrats • The GOP • Voters | 1 Comment »