The Boston Globe:

The former Massachusetts governor has raised $2.1 million for his Free and Strong America political action committee. But only 12 percent of the money has been spent distributing checks to Romney’s fellow Republicans around the country.

Instead, the largest chunk of the money has gone to support Romney’s political ambitions, paying for salaries and consulting fees to over a half-dozen of Romney’s longtime political aides, according to a Globe review of expenditures.

…

In essence, Romney is financing a political enterprise that he can use to remain a national GOP leader and use as a springboard should he decide to launch another presidential bid for 2012.”

The latest poll, from Rasmussen, has Chambliss leading 50-46, with 4% undecided.

Obama “robocalls” on behalf of Jim Martin; listen to the audio here.

“Mr. Obama has shied away from inserting himself in the still-to-be resolved Senate contests in Georgia and Minnesota. While he recorded a radio advertisement for the Democratic candidate in Georgia, advisers said he would not visit there, to avoid appearing to be too political as he works to deliver on his campaign pledge to bridge the partisan divide in Washington.” - the New York Times

Over the weekend “Freedom Watch,” a pro-Chambliss independent group, released this ad:

Click here to view the embedded video.

Here’s Martin’s response:

Click here to view the embedded video.

Last week, Chambliss was giving a campaign speech on unemployment, & therefore missed a vote in the Senate on extending unemployment benefits.

Al Gore stumped for Martin over the weekend.

Mitt Romney did the same for Chambliss late last week.

Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney will be campaigning for Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R-GA) late this week. His visit follows visits by Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee in the Peach state for the first-term Republican senator.

Romney will headline a rally for Chambliss at the Intercontinental Hotel in Atlanta Friday morning. The former Republican presidential hopeful later in the afternoon will hold another rally at the Charles H. Morris Center in Savannah.

The article also has this interesting tidbit:

“Martin, who served for nearly two decades in the state House of Representatives, campaigned with former President Bill Clinton on Wednesday in Atlanta. He will also have former Vice President Al Gore stumping for him on Sunday, according to the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, when a runoff debate to be moderated by PBS’ Judy Woodruff has been proposed.”

I hope that happens. Depend on me to post that as soon as it’s available.

His new book comes out tomorrow, & he spares no punches for his former primary rivals.

From Time Magazine:

“Mitt Romney, Huckabee’s principal rival in Iowa, comes in for the roughest treatment.

Huckabee writes that the former Massachusetts governor’s record was “anything but conservative until he changed the light bulbs in his chandelier in time to run for president.” He notes that Romney declined to make a phone call of congratulations after Huckabee beat the oddsmakers to win the Iowa caucuses, “which we took as a sign of total disrespect.” He mocks Romney for suggesting, during one debate, more investment in high-yield stocks as a solution to economic woes. “Let them eat stocks!” Huckabee jokes.”

‘His treatment of former candidate Fred Thompson, a rival who helped sink Huckabee’s upstart ambitions in South Carolina, is somewhat more favorable, if only because it is less personal. Huckabee maintains that Thompson’s biggest mistake was strategic: he didn’t understand the need to expand the Republican Party beyond its base. “Fred Thompson never did grasp the dynamics of the race or the country, and his amazingly lackluster campaign reflected just how disconnected he was with the people, despite the anticipation and expectation that greeted his candidacy,”"

Picture if you will…

What if Obama’s father hadn’t ever left Kenya to meet his mother?

Above: here are your two tickets.

As of October 13th, after more than six months of wearying negative campaigning on both sides, Clinton has a slight lead in the polls thanks to the financial crisis.

Polls remain very tight.

3rd party candidates are much more in play (Paul/Bloomberg?). Ceiling of 3rd party vote nationwide is about 4%.

Mike Huckabee is the race’s “Sarah Palin.”

Final electoral tally reaches a margin of victory smaller than 2004’s.

What if Obama lost the primaries?

Above: Here are your two tickets.

As of October 13th, the McCain campaign is in nearly exact same position as now in the polls, possibly worse.

Polls tend to be closer to what they are in reality.

Obama is the race’s ‘Sarah Palin.’

Final electoral tally reaches a margin of victory greater than 2004’s.

What do you think?

You may have thought you were watching the Republican National Convention for the 2008 election last night.

& that’s mostly true.

But under the surface, the three speakers leading up to Sarah Palin’s featured three men who no doubt had the next-time-around’s primaries squarely in mind.

Let’s start with Mitt Romney, who made it clear that he’s trying to stake a claim in the farthest rightward corner of the Republican party:

Click here to view the embedded video.

Rowr! Goodness, the man hates liberals, doesn’t he? It takes a certain amount of chutzpah to call the current U.S. Supreme Court a liberal one. Hadn’t heard that claim before.

The speech was extremely reminiscent of Pat Buchanan’s 1992 speech, which was the 1st time that the phrase “culture war” was used:

Click here to view the embedded video.

Click here to view the embedded video.

Buchanan’s speech did not go over well with middle America, because it was seen as far too harsh. It may be in part the reason Mitt didn’t give his speech in prime time last night.

Onward. Mike Huckabee, the winner of the Tennessee primary, gave what I thought was the best speech out of the three former primary candidates featured last night:

Click here to view the embedded video.

The best thing he could have done - for his party, that is - was to recognize the economic difficulties experienced by ordinary Americans. I haven’t seen much empathy in this regard at this convention this week. Good & well-crafted speech, Mike.

& then finally, Rudy Giuliani. He did so poorly at the polls this time around that I wonder if he really will run again in 2012.. but let’s assume he is until we learn otherwise:

Click here to view the embedded video.

After a relatively tame night, the gloves were certainly off against Barack Obama in these three speeches. What do you think? Were they effective? Which of the three men who spoke do you think has the best shot at running for the presidency again? Post a comment & let the world know!

[addendum: by saying they candidates have 2012 in their sights, I am in no way implying that John McCain will lose this year. If he wins, then just substitute "2016" for "2012" above.]

What a drama! I actually think this is more exciting than the Obama speculation.

From the New York Times:

WASHINGTON — Senator John McCain has decided on his running mate, two Republican strategists in contact with Mr. McCain’s campaign said Wednesday. He is expected to reveal his choice at 11 a.m. Friday at a rally at a basketball arena in Dayton, Ohio.

From the AP:

DENVER (AP) - John McCain says he hasn’t decided on a running mate just yet.
The Republican presidential candidate told a Pittsburgh radio station he wouldn’t even talk about which way he is leaning.
In the interview with KDKA NewsRadio on Thursday morning, McCain talked very highly about one of the people considered a strong possibility to be his choice, former Pennsylvania Gov. Tom Ridge. He called Ridge a great American and a dear friend whom he has relied upon for years.

What th—?

So we clearly have two different stories out there.

The most interesting thing to watch has been certain sections of the GOP really, really, really trying hard to convince McCain NOT to pick Joe Lieberman. McCain has said as late as this week that he like Lieberman for the ticket.

Robert Novak says:

“..a McCain-Lieberman ticket would be a disaster for all concerned, and especially for the GOP.”

& the Politico reports that Karl Rove personally called Lieberman:

“Republican strategist Karl Rove called Sen. Joseph I. Lieberman (I-Conn.) late last week and urged him to contact John McCain to withdraw his name from vice presidential consideration, according to three sources familiar with the conversation.

Lieberman dismissed the request, these sources agreed.

Lieberman “laughed at the suggestion and certainly did not call [McCain] on it,” said one source familiar with the details.

“Rove called Lieberman,” recounted a second source. “Lieberman told him he would not make that call.”

Rove did not immediately respond to a request for comment. “

Rove was slippery in how he responded to a direct question on Fox News. Pay close attention to the fact that he does not specifically deny that a call took place, only that Politico got the story wrong:

Click here to view the embedded video.

Lieberman would help McCain win independents & women. But the pick’s a big risk in 2 ways:

1. It would deflate any kind of enthusiasm for McCain in Minnesota next week (& believe me, the amount of enthusiasm for this candidate is already fragile).

2. It might possibly keep a lot of GOP voters home on election day.

One argument that it won’t be Lieberman: McCain has said he’ll make the announcement on Friday, & make campaign stops with his veep choice on Saturday & Sunday. Lieberman is an observant Jew, & thus would refrain from campaigning on Saturday. That makes the veep rollout a little awkward. (UPDATE: He definitely won’t be the nominee - scroll down)

Rove (& many others, in the Rush Limbaugh/Sean Hannity/Fox News/Country club Republican circuit) are pushing hard for Mitt Romney.

This too has its plusses & minuses.

Romney, as a millionaire many times over, wouldn’t help McCain eschew the image of a well-off ticket that’s out of touch with the economic concerns of ordinary Americans.

But he is perceived as having a command of economic issues, or at least more so than McCain.

& his debating skills would likely come close to making the debate with Joe Biden a level playing field.

But so would Mike Huckabee. I’ve been amazed that I’ve not seen his name in the discussions this week - & I admit that my floating of him being the choice has been poo-pooed in certain corners of the newsroom. So I may be totally off base here. But let’s look at his pros & cons, if nothing else for fun:

Huckabee is far closer to “working class,” which helps diminish McCain’s “well-off” vibe.

Again, his debating skills make going up against Biden a fair fight.

Huckabee on the ticket would virtually give much of the South to McCain. Romney did not do well at all in the primaries among southern working class voters. With Huckabee, McCain has a decent shot of getting all the states George Bush did in 2004.

He would have trouble north of the Mason-Dixon line, though, & also with independents who believe that the current administration has been a bit holier-than-thou.

We’ll know within 24 hours. What do you think? Whom should McCain pick? Whom should he avoid at all costs? I’d love to hear what you have to say! Post a comment!

UPDATE: Race 4 2008 has found the reason it won’t be Lieberman:

“The major thing standing in the way of a Lieberman Vice-Presidential pick for McCain is a seemingly small thing - an RNC rule that states that a Vice Presidential nominee must have been a Republican for at least 60 days prior to nomination.

There are only two ways around that rule as far as I know - the first being that Lieberman has already switched his party affiliation a couple months ago secretly without letting anybody know (highly, highly, highly unlikely). The other option would be for the delegates to vote to waive that rule at the RNC — and it’s not hard to imagine how that would go.

Color me skeptical, but I just don’t think John McCain would put the party through that kind of turmoil just to get a liberal Democratic candidate who already failed twice in running for the White House on a Republican ticket.”

Agree.

This new spot, debuting today, is called “Tiny” & attacks Obama on Iran.

EQUAL TIME: Read Obama’s take on Iran on his website.

Also, Mitt Romney’s in Denver this week. Is he auditioning? We’ll know Friday!

Click here to view the embedded video.

With the AP story below, I shout comments from the sidelines in brackets.

WASHINGTON (AP) - Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama prepared to name his running mate, perhaps as early as Friday, from a small field that included at least one dark horse.
Democratic officials said little-known Texas Rep. Chet Edwards was one of the few Democrats whose background was checked by Obama’s campaign, and he was a finalist for the job. [unknown? then unlikely.]

Among others mentioned:

Govs. Tim Kaine of Virginia [nope]

and Kathleen Sebelius of Kansas [nope], as well as

Sens. Joe Biden of Delaware [very possible] and

Evan Bayh of Indiana [possible, but not likely].

Obama was to appear Saturday in Springfield, Ill., with his No. 2, and disclose the name to the world through a text message that could be sent at any time before that event.

[this is not the real text message.]

Who’s it gonna be? I still am sticking to my guns that it will be a person that the media has not mentioned at all.

& as for McCain?

Speculation’s swirling that it’s going to be Romney. Mark Halperin says he gets this info from two anonymous sources inside the McCain campaign. MSNBC’s First Read blog’s take on the pros & cons Romney would add to the ticket:

“How Mitt might fit: But if Romney’s the choice, here’s a quick rundown of his strengths and weaknesses as McCain’s VP. On the plus side, his business and managerial experience could benefit a candidate who once said “economics is not something I’ve understood as well as I should”; Romney could also help McCain in Michigan, given that his father was the former governor of the state; and the former Massachusetts governor could assist McCain in the competitive Mountain West states, which have strong Mormon populations (for example, 7% of Nevada’s population is Mormon). Among the minuses, McCain and Romney disagreed on several issues during the primaries (like immigration campaign finance reform); there were numerous reports that McCain didn’t personally like Romney (in fact, one McCain ad — quoting the Concord Monitor — called Romney a “phony”; then there are Romney’s highly publicized flip-flops (as a McCain Web ad back in January put it, “Mitt Romney’s flip-flops truly are masterpieces”); despite his good looks and impeccable appearance, Romney was never a natural campaigner on the stump; and there were plenty of polls suggesting that Romney’s Mormon faith was an obstacle with some voters.”

What say you, dear readers? Post a comment now!

Zogby Poll: Obama/Powell Ticket Could Bode Well for Democrats

Survey finds Clinton VP pick favored by nearly half of Dems; Huckabee, Romney viewed as best running mates for McCain

UTICA, New York - As the Presidential candidates ponder potential running mates, a new Zogby International telephone poll shows many voters would be more inclined to vote for Democratic Sen. Barack Obama if he were to select retired four-star general and former Secretary of State Colin Powell as his running-mate.

If Obama were to choose Powell, 42% of likely voters nationwide said it would make them more likely to support the Democratic candidate - as did 42% of Democrats and 43% of political independents. The Zogby International telephone poll of 1,039 likely voters nationwide was conducted July 9-13, 2008, and asked respondents how the selection of certain vice presidential candidates would affect their likelihood to vote for the two leading presidential candidates. It carries a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percentage points.

Why I’m not surprised: Go back & read this Vote08 post from June 11th.

ALSO:

“Powell Hints at an Obama Endorsement” (June 13th)

“Computer Says Ideal VP for Both Dems & GOP is the Same Guy” (July 1st)

“Colin Powell on Barack Obama” (April 10th)

Yes, it’s a long shot, but I’m going to go ahead on the record right here & now & say that Powell is my official prediction for Obama’s Veep. The major hurdle, I think, is Mrs. Powell, who was instrumental in keeping Powell out of the running in 1995. Stay tuned.

Meanwhile.. I’ve long thought Romney is the money-favorite as of right now, & that’s reinforced even with Huckabee’s numbers as outlined below. For McCain to have a comparable “WOW” pick to Powell, I’m picking his longshot Veep pick as Alaska Governor Sarah Palin.

Former Republican rivals Huckabee and Romney could give McCain a boost

Among McCain’s potential vice presidential picks, former Republican nomination challengers Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney earned the strongest support from likely voters overall, as well as from Republicans and political independents. Among likely voters, 27% would be more likely to support McCain with Huckabee on the ticket, and 26% said the same if Romney were selected. A Huckabee pick would cause 13% of likely voters to be less likely to support McCain, while 11% would be less supportive of the presumptive Republican nominee if he were to choose Romney as his running mate. Among Republicans, 40% would be more likely to support a McCain/Huckabee ticket, while 11% would be less likely - a 29% net positive for the choice of Huckabee. If Romney were to be chosen, 41% of Republicans would be more inclined to vote for McCain, compared to 8% who would be less likely, for a net positive of 33%. Both fare well among political independents, with a 15% net positive for Huckabee and a 17% net positive for Romney if chosen as a running mate by McCain.

NBC Political Guru Chuck Todd makes an interesting case for Mitt Romney being at the bottom of a McCain ticket. More after you click “read the rest of this entry:”

“McCain could fix some of his problems connecting on the economy by his choice of a running mate, and there may not be a better “conventional” pick than Mitt Romney.

The former Massachusetts governor could help the ticket immediately in the two blue states of Michigan and New Hampshire. And he could potentially offset Obama’s strength in the Rocky Mountain west with a surge of Mormons coming out in Nevada and Colorado in particular.

Then there is the help Romney could provide on McCain’s message, assuming the problem-solving, job-creation Romney is the running mate rather than the born-again social conservative Romney.”

I had written off Romney as a possible Veep candidate, but I hadn’t considered the points Chuck Todd makes about regional improvement in the general. For the record, I happen to believe the “regional” appeal of a Vice Presidential candidate (LBJ counterbalancing JFK, say) is a tactic whose value has long passed.. but hey, I could be wrong.

Todd makes a broader point in this article that also may raise your eyebrows: Republicans should be rooting for the Democratic race to be wrapped up sooner rather than later:

“There may be a point where it is good for McCain, say if the fight actually goes all the way to Denver, but short of that, he needs an opponent, badly.

Why? A few reasons, not the least of which is finding out where he stands with the voting public.

Currently polls show McCain either narrowly ahead or even with both Hillary Clinton & Barack Obama. It is impressive considering how poorly the GOP, and specifically the president, are viewed by the public.

But it is a faux lead. If the de facto Democratic nominee is clear within the next 4-6 weeks, that person will see a poll bounce. And according to GOP pollster Steve Lombardo, it could be one heck of a bounce, like post-convention. He anticipates the Democratic candidate will move up 10 points once the primary race is over.

That will be a jolting set of numbers for the McCain camp to absorb. They ought to be prepping the media now, because if they wait for the inevitable overreaction of the pundit class, the bounce will take on more importance.

The initial bounce will set the polling numbers - the floor and ceiling - for the Democrats, who clearly have the generic advantage this cycle. Those parameters will dictate the morale within the GOP base.

If McCain’s is hanging in, behind by 10 or so points, then it is clear he will have a shot. If the bounce pushes the Democratic nominee to as much as a 15 point lead, it may be very demoralizing to the GOP. The sooner McCain can absorb this inevitable negative poll news, the longer he has to recover.”

If this theory is true (& Todd makes a good case), it looks like Republicans now need to root for Hillary to lose Pennsylvania badly.

No, Republicans, we haven’t forgotten you, & we’re sorry if you’ve felt “ignored” as of late here — it’s just that all the spotlights continue to be on the Democratic race — trust me, the longer they soak those spotlights up, the better-positioned your candidate will be.

But there are developments happening on the Republican side of the race to the White House. Take Mitt Romney, for example. He’s in the news again!

After the jump, you’ll see a clip of his first interview since he first ’suspended’ his campaign, where he talks about how he’d love for John McCain to put him on the ticket.

& speculates on whether Romney would add lift or drag to John McCain’s trajectory.

First, the first part of an interview with one of his biggest — albeit johnny-come-too-lately — fans, Sean Hannity on Fox News:

Click here to view the embedded video.

then there’s this clip where Hannity directly asks him the veep question:

Click here to view the embedded video.

First off: Boy, he looks rested, doesn’t he? Here, folks, is what you look like after taking a month off from a presidential campaign.

Secondly: note how he’s not bitter at all about the tactics used against him during the primary. All’s fair in love, war, & politics.

Would Mitt say yes? Of course he would.

Would McCain ask him in the first place? Not as clear.

On the “up” side of a McCain-Romney ticket..

-Romney would defuse a lot of Republican rancor they still feel deep down about McCain that he’s “not one of their own.”
-His age provides needed ballast to McCain’s
-He’s demonstrated he’s a hard working campaigner, & would no doubt add some much-needed energy & charisma to the ticket

But on the other hand…

-It’s a safe assumption that the two still hate each other, which was mentioned often on- & off- the record on the campaign trail. McCain is the type of person to hold grudges, & would likely choose someone with out such a history of crossing him. McCain would also appear to be caving to the interests of some of those on the right, which would tarnish his independent image.
-Despite becoming the supposed GOP “standard-bearer” once the rest of McCain’s competition dropped out, Romney would still have “ideology issues.” Earlier in the campaign, he was derided for flip-flopping, & his campaign strategy changed its core ‘message’ several times, depending on both the state he was campaigning in at the time & on what was perceived to be the major issues of voters (for example, co-opting & morphing Obama’s “Change We Can Believe In” into the slogan “Change Starts with Us”). He gave off a constant whiff of “campaigning by consultants.”
-It’s a good bet that McCain would see the greater benefits of naming a more southern (& more independently-minded) governor to the ticket.

So what do you think? Should Romney be on the ticket? Time for you to weigh in! Post a comment!

Mitt Romney famously ’suspended’ his campaign earlier this month. Now there’s a hint he used that word for a reason.

Find out why after the jump.

‘Suspension’ means that his 300 or so delegates are still in play for the Minneapolis convention.

Now his son Josh is dropping some serious hints that his dad may get back in the race.

More now from a recent post in the L.A. Times blog “Top of the Ticket,” which talked with Josh Romney:

“…asked about speculation that, given the McCain troubles, his father might reenter the Republican race either as a candidate for the top spot or as the party nominee’s vice presidential partner, and Romney replies that it’s “possible.” Then, he adds, “unlikely, but possible.”

Josh Romney is weighing a run for Congressional office. He also said that while his dad endorsed McCain, he never could.

There’s no hint about re-entering the race on Mitt Romney’s website.

What do you think? Is it too late for Mitt to get back in it? Post a comment & let us know!

Just in: After 9 days of counting, Hillary Clinton wins the New Mexico caucuses. Call it a comeback?

Mitt Romney to endorse John McCain today, according to the AP
ABC News has more here.

Romney says he’ll release his 288 delegates and urge them to back McCain. That puts McCain within just 90 (ABC’s count) delegates to win the Republican nomination officially.

In other news, a new Rasmussen poll shows increasing voter love for Barack Obama. He leads Hillary Clinton by 12 percentage(49-37) points nationwide. Obama gets the endorsement of former Republican Rhode Island Senator Lincoln Chaffee today.

..but the latest polls in Clinton’s firewall state, Ohio, show voters still have a special place in their hearts for Hillary. She leads by a double-digit margin. & she’s not feeling the love towards her opponent: she’s stepped up her attacks against Obama in that state today.

Voters on Super Tuesday changed the landscape for the race for the presidency. & it’s likely that as you read this, the landscape is still changing. This link takes you to the New York Times’ site, which has in the upper right hand corner the current delegate count according to the AP.

What numbers should you watch? The Republican delegate numbers won’t change much, but keep your eyes close on that Democratic count.

George Stephanopolous of ABC News boiled it down to a very clear & easy to understand metric:

“If [Clinton's] lead goes below 60…if Barack Obama closes the gap, he’s going to have the edge. If she gets [her delegate lead] over 125, she’s going to be hard to stop.” ‘

Keep that in mind as the California delegates get assigned later today (or later this week…?).

& now, lets take our first steps in the new political landscape in which we find ourselves, after the jump!

THE BEGINNING OF THE END… of the Republican Primary Race.

MITT ROMNEY: Romney won his home state of Massachusetts & Utah (home state advantage + Mormon state advantage), plus North Dakota, Colorado, Minnesota, & Montana. Combined delegates of these states: 251.

Number of delegates McCain has: 570.

Romney said last night “the race will go on.” He’s right, it will.

Just without him.

Romney was the last best hope for a core group of conservatives who adamantly oppose John McCain. Many of Romney’s voters yesterday are also fervent supporters of President Bush & the Iraq war. Yesterday those voters realized just how marginalized their voice has become this campaign season.

MIKE HUCKABEE: Huckabee won an impressive amount of southern states, including Georgia, Alabama, Arkansas, Tennessee & West Virginia (if you count that last state as ’southern’). He has 175 delegates, fewer than Romney.. & yet he emerges from Super Tuesday the victor over the former Massachusetts governor.

Quite an achievement for a man polling in the single digits just two months ago. Many in the NewsChannel 9 newsroom (correctly) predicted after his rise to the top tier that many counties in the Tennessee Valley would hand him a victory. But none were expecting him to win Tennessee.

Where does he go from here? Let’s assume he outlasts Romney. He comes into the convention with a hefty amount of delegates to give John McCain. Could McCain return the favor by putting him on the ticket as the vice presidential nominee?

Why the answer’s yes: he could bring some conservatives who are soured on McCain back into the fold. If Obama’s the Democratic nominee (big if), he would bridge the “oratory gap” on the stump. More on this train of thought here.

Why the answer’s no: a McCain/Huckabee ticket would still cause a lot of conservatives (who’ve criticized both candidates) to stay home on election day in November, helping the Democratic nominee to victory (more on that here). And McCain’s strategy will likely be an attempt to get Democrats & Independents to “cross over,” which would be less likely with Huckabee on the ticket.

JOHN MCCAIN: Get used to it — this man is your nominee, GOP. Actually many Republicans in closed primaries chose McCain yesterday. He won in California, New York, Illinois, New Jersey, Connecticut, Delaware, Oklahoma, Missouri, & his home state of Arizona. 570 delegates put him at the top of a steep hill. Voters who disapproved of President Bush’s current Iraq policy — a policy McCain has virtually endorsed — went to him in droves . There would have to be a meltdown of major proportions for this dynamic to change.

Now that he’s reached this status, here’s what to look for in the coming weeks:

-More media reports along the lines of “Is he too old?” Trust me, these issues will bubble up in several news cycles between now & November. His age also means the American voter takes a far closer look at his Vice Presidential nominee.

-A ‘coming-to-terms’ from Republicans who declare they’ll never ever vote for McCain. One of the most fascinating things to watch in this entire campaign. Many have said they’ll sit this out & “sic Hillary on the country.” The desire to retain control of the White House will likely override that urge.

Coming soon: THE END OF THE BEGINNING…for the Democratic Primary Race

Both candidates have reason to smile today. Both candidates also have reason to be concerned.

Clinton won her home state of New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Arkansas, Arizona, Tennessee & California.

• Biggest wins: California & Massachusetts (take that, Ted Kennedy)
• Biggest losses: Missouri & Connecticut

Obama won his home state of Illinois, Georgia, Delaware, Alabama, Utah, Connecticut, Kansas, Minnesota, Colorado, North Dakota, Idaho, Missouri, Alaska.

• Biggest wins: Georgia, Alabama, Missouri, & Connecticut.
• Biggest loss: California

In general terms, Clinton proved yesterday that she has a loyal base that will turn out to see a woman elected president. She also did well (as expected) with Hispanics, especially in California. But Obama did win among white women in places like Georgia & Connecticut, proving that Hillary can’t absolutely depend on the “because-it’s-a-woman-running-for-president” line. And Obama may not have done well with Hispanics, but his numbers among white voters are very strong.

Off the table: the argument (made often by one newsroom employee) that Obama can’t win in predominately white or “red” states. Obama’s leads in states like Idaho, Utah, Colorado, Alaska, & Kansas were all impressive - double digit margins and in some cases 2-to-1 margins. He actively campaigned in those states (which are usually ignored for their low delegate count) to counter Clinton’s (either one, take your pick) argument that he’ll only do well in states like Georgia & South Carolina with a high percentage of black voters.

Now, it gets ugly. Obama may not be leading in the delegate race, but it’s evident he’s got momentum working in his favor right now. None of the remaining state primary contests happen on the same day from here on out. That means Obama will be able to establish a heavy presence in each state the week prior to the vote, & he has typically benefited from this up-close-&-personal strategy. Count on both candidates to lean decidedly more negative against each other - that love fest of a debate in California last week was nothing but a smokescreen.

Finding her voice: By nature of her gender (no offense intended here — the Clinton campaign has admitted this), Clinton has a vocal-cord disadvantage — like most female voices, it turns shrill when shouted at a high volume. Not good when you’re trying to win over votes. So look for fewer Clinton appearances at large political rallies and a lot more intimate “town-hall” style meetings. This article goes more into detail about this “new style” on the trail.

What do you think will happen with the Democratic & Republican candidates?

• Will Romney drop out soon?
• Is Huckabee gunning for the Veep nod?
• Will anti-McCain conservatives embrace him by November? & can he win against the Democratic nominee?
• Who is going to win the Democratic nomination?

Post a comment right now & let Vote08 know! Your opinion matters!

Welcome to Super Tuesday on Vote08.

This post looks at how each candidate stands today, February 5th, and see if we’ll be able to reach any conclusions about each party’s nominee when all the votes are counted.. which may not be finished until tomorrow!

Here’s the latest results in our latest NewsChannel9.com web poll as of 3 this afternoon:

Which of these major presidential candidates would you most like to see win the White House in November?

Hillary Clinton - 30%

Mike Huckabee - 31%

John McCain - 18%

Barack Obama - 13%

Mitt Romney - 8%

Total Votes: 621

*(why wasn’t Ron Paul included? Read more for an explanation)

After the jump, Vote08 zooms in on each candidate & see what’s at stake & where they need to succeed! As this race has changed significantly since this time last week, we’ll only look at the most recent polls.

Hillary Clinton

Once assured the nomination not too long ago (though it feels like decades), today could be a major turning point for Hillary Clinton. She has to not only win as many states as possible, she has to win them by as big a margin as possible. The conventional wisdom will declare a “loss” for Clinton if her margins of victory are under 5 percentage points. California (as we’ve said before) is the key race to watch tonight — and since a) the polls don’t close until 11pm eastern & b) they won’t start counting millions of absentee ballots until after today’s votes are counted, you had best get some sleep some time today if you’re going to stay up to the finish. & the poll numbers are extremely fluid in California — this morning Zogby has Clinton down by 13 points.

Clinton says she’s the best nominee because 1) she’s already had White House experience from when her husband was president, 2) she can effectively counter expected Republican attacks in November, & 3) she has a minute grasp of policy issues needed to help Congress pass legislation, including universal health care. The arguments against her are that she brings baggage to the race, that she is reluctant to admit mistakes (like her Iraq war vote that she continues to brand as a “sincere” vote at the time, and that she would be as polarizing a president as President Bush. But you can rest assured that one group cheering her on through thick & thin are Republicans who are anxiously hoping she’s the Democratic nominee.

Clinton’s strengths are with Democratic voters who are female, who are older, who don’t have a college degree, who are low- to middle- income, & who are Hispanic. Her weaknesses are with other minorities, men, college graduates, those with a higher income, & what may be the deciding factor: young & first-time voters.

How will she do here?

Tennessee: It’s her state to lose. The last, most-recent poll of Tennessee Democrats show her with a double-digit lead. Obama is counting on votes from the central and western parts of the state, & other than some television advertising is writing off east Tennessee completely.

Georgia: She’s in trouble. Clinton will likely suffer her worst loss in any state contest in the NewsChannel 9 viewing area. Interestingly, Obama is leading among women in the Peach State. This lines up with one of Vote08’s mottos: never pigeonhole voting habits.

Alabama: The latest polls show Obama gaining ground. A week ago she was the five point favorite; Two polls taken in the last five days have her up by 1 percentage point and down by 2 percentage points. The most fluid race out of the three states listed here.

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Barack Obama

More than any other candidate in either party, Barack Obama has successfully embraced the “change” mantra that appears to be of ultimate importance to a majority of voters. To win tonight, Obama’s votes have to come close to Clinton’s — not to mention the all-important delegates. The methodology for awarding delegates in the Democratic party works in Obama’s favor. Even if he loses by a wide margin to Clinton, he still could be awarded a greater proportion of delegates in each state he lost. Pollsters have seen an increase in momentum for Obama since his debate performance last week.

Obama says he’s the right person for the job because he represents a break from the politics of the past, has expressed a willingness to practice bipartisanship, and that he has opposed the Iraq war from the beginning & promises to “change the mindset that got us in the war in the first place.” His critics say 1) he’s too inexperienced for the job, 2) his voting record reveals a tendency to lean to the left, and 3) that his plan to reform health care doesn’t mandate universal coverage.

Obama’s strengths are with upper-income Democrats, African-Americans, and college graduates. His weaknesses are with those who identify with the party establishment, those with lower- to middle-incomes, & those without a college degree, & most importantly with young people & first-time voters.

How will he do here?

Tennessee: Obama will lose the Volunteer State tonight. His support has been steady since the campaign here began but it’s insignificant against Hillary’s strong numbers in all three areas of the state.

Georgia: A high number of African-American voters will help Obama to a Peach State victory. Zogby’s latest poll has him consistently leading by about 20 percentage points.

Alabama: Again, the local wild card of the night. In one poll, Obama leads voters aged 18-44, & Clinton is ahead with those who are 45+. Like Georgia, Obama also leads among women. It’s a dead heat for male voters. White & Hispanic voters favor Clinton.

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John McCain

No matter what happens in the end, & regardless of how you feel about him, John McCain’s 2008 candidacy is one of the most remarkable stories ever in American presidential politics. Last summer, the wheels were flying off the Straight Talk Express & he was losing both staff & money. He’s now poised to accept the Presidential nomination later this year. & that nomination could be secured as early as tonight. He holds a commanding lead in most nationwide polls, a lead that’s increased in the last week. Many Republicans have taken note of this poll & this poll which show that McCain is the only Republican candidate who has a shot at beating the Democrat in November.

That’s one of his strengths. McCain also says he’d make the best president because 1) he has a command of foreign policy issues, & promises to bring good military judgement back to the White House for the war in Iraq & the struggle against terrorism, 2) he has demonstrated an independent streak & a willingness to cross the aisle to compromise with Democrats, & 3) he has a decent shot at gaining Democratic & independent votes in November. His detractors say he is not a true conservative, that he has attached his name to legislation abhorrent to many Republicans, including attempts at immigration reform & campaign finance reform, and that he is too old for the job (at 71, he’d be older than Reagan was when he took office).

How will he do here?

Tennessee: Far more interesting race to call in Tennessee than for the Democrats. Unlike the national trends showing Huckabee a distant third, it’s a 3-man race in Tennessee, with Huckabee running a close second to McCain in the most recent poll. That poll shows McCain’s support grows with each higher age group. Elections traditionally favor candidates who do better with older voters. McCain also leads with women.

Georgia: Another 3-way race, but this time it’s Romney on McCain’s heels. The war in Iraq is the top issue among Georgia voters according to this poll. And that poll has this interesting tidbit: 52% of Republicans say it’s “very important” for the Republican nominee to “be a conservative Republican in the mode of Ronald Reagan.” Overall, McCain leads Romney by 2 percentage points (31-29), with 9 percent undecided. Like Tennessee, the Georgia GOP race results will be fascinating to watch.

Alabama: This poll has McCain-37, Huckabee-35, Romney-19. Yet another interesting race for McCain. This time Huckabee’s in a close second. McCain is leading in the southern part of the Heart of Dixie. He also wins with voters over 50, moderates, and abortion-rights supporters.

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Mitt Romney

Once lambasted on the right for flip-flopping his positions he took while Governor of Massachusetts versus the ones he’s recently taken on the campaign trail, Mitt Romney represents the last, best hope for many conservatives, many of whom still support President Bush. Talk radio has embraced him; Sean Hannity openly endorsed him on his radio show yesterday, saying he’s the only candidate who can unite the social, fiscal and foreign policy wings of the Republican party. But both time & votes are not on his side. The relatively late exit of Fred Thompson & recent momentum by McCain have forced conservatives to scramble to try to introduce Romney to voters as the clear heir to the Reagan, which is no easy task, especially given opposition to Romney from evangelicals who are critical of the tenets of his Mormon faith.

Romney says his strengths are that he’s the heir to Ronald Reagan, that he can unite the party, and that he is the only candidate in the race with sufficient business experience to help an issue at the top of voters’ minds, the economy. His weaknesses include a perception that he’s a ‘johnny-come-lately’ to the conservative movement, that he morphs as a candidate to fit the needs of voters in each particular state, and that this poll & this poll show him a distant second against the eventual Democratic nominee.

How will he do here? Short answer: not well.

Tennessee: Romney’s a distant third to McCain & Huckabee in the last major poll taken in the state before today. This is despite efforts in Nashville yesterday to marginalize the Huckabee factor. About the only good news for Romney in Tennessee is that he ties McCain with Hispanics. Volunteer voters will not give Romney a win.

Georgia: This recent poll shows Huckabee’s presence hurting Romney in the Peach State. The pollster sums up a painful reality: “Most of Huckabee’s supporters list Romney as their second choice….Interestingly, despite strong concerns about the economy, Romney is basically tied with McCain among voters who rate the economy as their most important issue. For Romney to win, he must shave a few points off of the Huckabee vote total. “

Alabama: This poll has Romney a distant 3rd, with support evenly distributed geographically. Romney’s only bright spot in this poll is that he ties the other two candidates among voters who think immigration is the top issue in the race.

Mike Huckabee

Hamilton County voters will likely give a boost to Huckabee after his Super Tuesday-eve visit, which you can see more of here. Mike Huckabee is not doing well in national polls, but he may collect enough votes today for his delegates to be a major factor at the convention. Huckabee’s rise is only rivalled by John McCain’s story in being one of the more interesting stories of the GOP campaign this year. He was the only candidate to graduate from the “second tier” to the “top tier” before the Iowa caucuses, and that’s normally a rarity in either party. Huckabee benefited from widespread dissatisfaction for the candidates with Republican voters. And in a year where the internet allows voters to sidestep the campaign commercials & stump speeches to do their own research, Huckabee became a plausible alternative rather quickly. He is plain spoken, a speaking style benefits from years on the pulpit. But since his Iowa caucus win, he has failed to grab support outside of his fervent base of evangelical Christians. That’s partly due to attacks from conservatives who say his record as Arkansas governor reveals a liberal undercoating. Huckabee has also succeeded because he has expertly tapped in to the economic worries of what he calls “Wal-Mart Republicans.”

His strengths include that ability to connect with concerns about the economy. He also argues that he has is the candidate who will make the most consistently conservative choices while in office. But critics say he has a liberal record raising taxes and granting pardons as governor, & that he does not appeal to those all-important independent swing voters. He also fares poorly in national polls against Clinton & Obama.

How will he do here? Short answer: far better than the rest of the country.

Tennessee: He trails McCain by 2 points in this poll. He also wins big with young voters (55%), who will be more of a factor this time around than in elections past.

Georgia: He trails McCain by six points in this poll & by 5 points (behind Romney) in this poll. He won’t be as significant a factor compared to Tennessee & Alabama. Don’t discount that 2nd poll’s 9% undecided, but Huckabee’s looking at third place in the Peach State.

Alabama: The Huck is quite alive in the Heart of Dixie. He trails McCain by just 2 percentage polls. He leads with voters in the northern side of the state. He also has strong support from voters under 40. He wins among Alabama conservatives. And he has the highest support among those GOP voters who think the economy is the top issue. Huckabee has an outside shot of winning Alabama; but only 1% of voters are undecided, so we’ll see.

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Ron Paul

In many ways, gynecologist & Texas congressman Ron Paul is occupying the same space in the campaign once inhabited by Ross Perot & Ralph Nader. Paul has enlisted a very enthusiastic, hardcore group of supporters. Ron Paul’s signs were the first to emerge for the Super Tuesday campaign in the Tennessee Valley months ago. Yet nationally he has failed to gain support beyond the single digits. Paul has rightly raised questions about the United States role in the world. While he doesn’t advocate isolationism, he believes the U.S. should redefine what is possible throughout the world. He also advocates eliminating the I.R.S. & fundamentally changing U.S. monetary policy. These are broad visions, & they have been hard to convey in clear & easy to understand ways with voters.

Paul’s strengths include an ability to take the long view on the United States trajectory as a superpower in the coming decades, a grasp of issues that voters appreciate, and he has brought millions of new voters into the political process who have never worked on a campaign before. Regardless of whom you support, that increase in participation can only help the country. His weaknesses include his delivery & oratory, which have never been his strong suit, and he has not been able to shake the perception among many Republican voters that he lacks the stature for the job.

How will he do here?

Tennessee: He’s polling 6 percent in Tennessee, with the most support coming from voters aged 18-29.

Georgia: Two recent polls show him with 6 or 5 percent. One poll had him with 29 percent of the Hispanic vote in Georgia.

Alabama: Again 6 percent support with a base among young voters.

The numbers clearly show Paul has hit a ceiling, & that’s one of the reasons NewsChannel9.com decided not to include him in the latest web poll. Here’s what I wrote one viewer who complained that he was left off:

We made the decision to ask people to weigh in on the “major” presidential candidates, and we decided in this case to define “major” as a candidate that is now polling in the double digits (as in over 10%). While there’s no doubt Ron Paul has a hardcore group of enthusiastic supporters, his national support in the polls remains in single digits. I hope you voted in the poll anyway.

NewsChannel9 has included Paul in many web polls up until now. The last one had him win with 26%, in fact — despite actual “scientific” polls (unlike NewsChannel9’s) showing him far below that number in Tennessee & Georgia.

Ron Paul supporters are some of the most media-savvy around, especially when it comes to so-called “new” media like the internet. Over the past few months when other stations and networks have done polls similar to ours, Ron Paul has repeatedly “won” those polls by a margin that doesn’t reflect his _actual_ national support. What that tells me is that the Paul contingent on the internet is well-connected & always gets the word out across the country when one of these polls are running. I suspect it’s what happened with our last poll to include Dr. Paul, & frankly it was a factor in our decision not to include him. This (again, unscientific) poll is trying to gauge how sentiment is leaning with voters in the Tennessee Valley, and in my judgement it’s far more accurate without people from across the country who passionately support one particular candidate trying to affect the results in that candidate’s favor.

Vote08 hopes you remember to vote today!!!

Hey Voter! Having trouble making up your mind? After the jump, some links to arguments making the case for & against each candidate!

The case for & against Hillary Clinton.

The case for & against Mike Huckabee.

The case for & against John McCain.

The case for & against Barack Obama.

The case for & against Ron Paul.

The case for & against Mitt Romney.

Already committed to a candidate? Post a comment & make your case to undecideds!

Super Tuesday is getting more exciting by the minute. Daylight between the two Democratic candidates is diminishing, & on the Republican side the Mike Huckabee factor is very interesting to track.

First go vote in NewsChannel9.com’s latest web poll — we’re putting candidates from both parties into the mix to see who you want to win the White House in November.

& once you’ve voted in that poll, come back here to dive in to the latest numbers, after the jump.

First, there’s that WSMV-TV poll (PDF file) of Tennessee voters Vote08 analyzed in this morning’s earlier post on Huckabee’s Chattanooga appearance.

The polls show Clinton with a 5% statewide lead, 36% to Obama’s 31%.Zooming in on east Tennessee finds Hillary polls best on this side of the state. Clinton leads Obama 46-28. That means an Obama or Clinton appearance in our neck of the woods over the next 24 hours is very unlikely. East Tennessee also has the lowest number by far - 16% - of undecided Democratic voters. One other interesting tidbit: Female Tennessee voters are tied in their support between Clinton & Obama. Male Tennessee voters break for Hillary in a big way.

Independents (all 14% of them) say they plan to split 50-50 Democrat/Republican.

Now let’s check out the daily tracking poll from Gallup as of this morning:

Obama is benefiting from not going negative in Thursday’s debate. His strategy was to appear presidential sitting next to Hillary to convince those all-important — and larger than normal for a primary - undecided voters he is a worthy alternative to her.

& here’s the daily tracking poll for the Republicans:

Mike Huckabee is seeing some increase in support nationally, proving himself a spoiler for Mitt Romney. This appears to come at the expense of John McCain, but Vote08 suspects McCain’s campaign is not unhappy about a 3rd place candidate keeping the 2nd place one from succeeding.

California: For Democrats, the race is too close to call. Different polls show different leaders with undecideds still a factor. Though she leads in some polls, you can bet that this is not where Hillary Clinton’s campaign had hoped she’d be at this point.

Vote08 has said before California is the race to watch Tuesday night. But we may not know who won until Wednesday morning:

About half of the ballots are expected to be cast either by mail or by voters who drop off mail-in ballots at precincts. Those ballots can take longer to tally because elections officials are required to check signatures against the registration file…. when the polls close, officials turn to counting the precinct votes, leaving the rest of the mail-in ballots and the laborious checking process until after the traditional votes are counted. The result may be hundreds of thousands of ballots being slowly counted at a time when television and Internet viewers are expecting to see definitive results pop onto their screens. “Everyone is going to be grumpy,” [California Secretary of State Debra] Bowen predicted. “But no one will ever forgive me if we get it wrong.”

Moral of the story: Get some sleep tonight!

Other polls:

Zogby’s latest state polls show Obama with a commanding lead in Georgia. Interestingly female voters in Georgia choose Obama over Clinton (47-32).

The latest Georgia polls of Republican candidates also see a much tighter race in the Peach state compared to the national numbers. It’s McCain 31, Romney 29, & Huckabee 25.

Huckabee is also running a close second to McCain in Alabama. But nationally, he’s losing votes to Romney.

Reuters has some easy-to-read graphs that show Obama & Romney both trending upward in some Super Tuesday states.

Vote08 is kicking into high gear as we head into this all important Super Tuesday contest! We hope you return to this blog over the next 48 hours to get the latest campaign news.

Vote08 loves feedback! After the jump, a look at some of the comments (& responses to them) the Vote08 blog has generated in the past week.

Eric says

“Obviously far more important issues at play here, but I have to strongly agree with [Barack Obama's Thursday debate] point that movie trailers (ads) played during otherwise family friendly programs have gotten too graphic. I strongly oppose any censorship of art and support the notion that it is the parents responsibility to do the filtering of media for their children. But I would love to not worry about movie ads during the 7:30 Simpsons rerun giving my kids nightmares.

Hardly what I will vote based on, I was just glad to hear someone (Barack) mention this.”

Excellent point, & also interesting to note these are Democrats criticizing Hollywood in front of Hollywood. You wouldn’t have seen this one or two elections ago.

Fishman says

I’m torn… I normally vote Republican. And I WANT to vote for a winner. However at this point I don’t believe McCain can beat Clinton. Obama maybe, but not Clinton. What do I do????

Fishman, I think you should remember John McCain’s successful track record with independents & Democrats, both in this current contest & in 2000. National polls matching up Clinton & McCain head-to-head show McCain is the Republican with the best shot (Romney doesn’t come close). If Hillary’s the nominee, she’ll lose votes from independents and Democrats who are disgusted by her; if Obama’s the nominee, McCain wins votes for those who think experience is an issue.

But remember: this election season is about choosing who you believe in, not who you think can win against the other side. Let your conscience be your guide.

Victoria writes

How short our memory must be to have forgotten the embarrasment and disgrace the Clinton’s brought to us during their occupation of the White House.
And regarding Obama, it’s terrifying to think he and his wife are Muslim. The church they claim to be members of have them listed as members only for the last two years…where was the Obama family practicing their faith before that time ?
No one seems to be able to answer this question, but frankly, it’s one that truly needs addressing to either stop or prove the Muslim statements. his country cannot handle more of what it’s already been through. We need a fresh change. It’s time for John Edwards.

Victoria, the rumor that Obama is a secret (or past) Muslim is FALSE. Go to this link & get the real story. (this site is one we at NewsChannel9 trust to help debunk urban myths & e-mail rumors on the web. It hasn’t let us down yet.)

& Susan Crain wrote a great letter to the editor in the Chattanooga Times Free Press on the topic of rumors & gossip:

“If all you read or hear during the next nine months are campaign smears & fear tactics, fight against these, no matter who is the target…. When your inbox fills up with trash & the e-mails of smear & fear, find the facts, & help defeat the lies. Make informed decisions. Just because you read it on the Internet in a “forward,” or in the newspaper does not make it true or real. Before you pass it on as fact (especially if it is sensational) … yes, check it out. Can’t find the answer? Don’t know the source? Then repeating it is little more than gossip. Gossip distorts in the telling. “Thou shalt bear no false witness against thy neighbor.” “Neighbor” is not only the person who lives next door to me.

Susan Crain’s my hero, & she’s 100% correct.

Norma writes

I