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Tracking the 2008 Campaign in the Tennessee Valley

Archive for the 'Mitt Romney' Category

ROMNEY TO LAND IN GEORGIA

November 21st, 2008, 10:11 am by Dan Lehr

From All Headline News:

Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney will be campaigning for Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R-GA) late this week. His visit follows visits by Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee in the Peach state for the first-term Republican senator.

Romney will headline a rally for Chambliss at the Intercontinental Hotel in Atlanta Friday morning. The former Republican presidential hopeful later in the afternoon will hold another rally at the Charles H. Morris Center in Savannah.

The article also has this interesting tidbit:

Read the rest of this entry »

HUCKABEE UNSHEATHED

November 17th, 2008, 12:14 pm by Dan Lehr

His new book comes out tomorrow, & he spares no punches for his former primary rivals.

From Time Magazine:

“Mitt Romney, Huckabee’s principal rival in Iowa, comes in for the roughest treatment. Read the rest of this entry »

CAMPAIGN HISTORY: OCTOBER 13th

October 13th, 2008, 5:10 pm by Dan Lehr

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Picture if you will…

What if Obama’s father hadn’t ever left Kenya to meet his mother?

Above: here are your two tickets.

As of October 13th, after more than six months of wearying negative campaigning on both sides, Clinton has a slight lead in the polls thanks to the financial crisis.

Polls remain very tight.

3rd party candidates are much more in play (Paul/Bloomberg?). Ceiling of 3rd party vote nationwide is about 4%.

Mike Huckabee is the race’s “Sarah Palin.”

Final electoral tally reaches a margin of victory smaller than 2004’s.

What if Obama lost the primaries?

Above: Here are your two tickets.

As of October 13th, the McCain campaign is in nearly exact same position as now in the polls, possibly worse.

Polls tend to be closer to what they are in reality.

Obama is the race’s ‘Sarah Palin.’

Final electoral tally reaches a margin of victory greater than 2004’s.

What do you think?

RNC ROUNDUP: LET THE 2012 ELECTION SEASON COMMENCE!

September 4th, 2008, 9:20 am by Dan Lehr

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You may have thought you were watching the Republican National Convention for the 2008 election last night.

& that’s mostly true.

But under the surface, the three speakers leading up to Sarah Palin’s featured three men who no doubt had the next-time-around’s primaries squarely in mind.

Let’s start with Mitt Romney, who made it clear that he’s trying to stake a claim in the farthest rightward corner of the Republican party:

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Rowr! Goodness, the man hates liberals, doesn’t he? It takes a certain amount of chutzpah to call the current U.S. Supreme Court a liberal one. Hadn’t heard that claim before.

The speech was extremely reminiscent of Pat Buchanan’s 1992 speech, which was the 1st time that the phrase “culture war” was used:

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Buchanan’s speech did not go over well with middle America, because it was seen as far too harsh. It may be in part the reason Mitt didn’t give his speech in prime time last night.

Onward. Mike Huckabee, the winner of the Tennessee primary, gave what I thought was the best speech out of the three former primary candidates featured last night:

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The best thing he could have done - for his party, that is - was to recognize the economic difficulties experienced by ordinary Americans. I haven’t seen much empathy in this regard at this convention this week. Good & well-crafted speech, Mike.

& then finally, Rudy Giuliani. He did so poorly at the polls this time around that I wonder if he really will run again in 2012.. but let’s assume he is until we learn otherwise:

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_vote08blog1.jpgAfter a relatively tame night, the gloves were certainly off against Barack Obama in these three speeches. What do you think? Were they effective? Which of the three men who spoke do you think has the best shot at running for the presidency again? Post a comment & let the world know!

[addendum: by saying they candidates have 2012 in their sights, I am in no way implying that John McCain will lose this year. If he wins, then just substitute "2016" for "2012" above.]

McCAIN HAS CHOSEN OR STILL HASN’T CHOSEN HIS VICE PRESIDENT

August 28th, 2008, 11:29 am by Dan Lehr

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What a drama! I actually think this is more exciting than the Obama speculation.

From the New York Times:

WASHINGTON — Senator John McCain has decided on his running mate, two Republican strategists in contact with Mr. McCain’s campaign said Wednesday. He is expected to reveal his choice at 11 a.m. Friday at a rally at a basketball arena in Dayton, Ohio.

From the AP:

DENVER (AP) - John McCain says he hasn’t decided on a running mate just yet.
The Republican presidential candidate told a Pittsburgh radio station he wouldn’t even talk about which way he is leaning.
In the interview with KDKA NewsRadio on Thursday morning, McCain talked very highly about one of the people considered a strong possibility to be his choice, former Pennsylvania Gov. Tom Ridge. He called Ridge a great American and a dear friend whom he has relied upon for years.

What th—?

So we clearly have two different stories out there.

joe_lieberman1.jpg

The most interesting thing to watch has been certain sections of the GOP really, really, really trying hard to convince McCain NOT to pick Joe Lieberman. McCain has said as late as this week that he like Lieberman for the ticket.

Robert Novak says:

“..a McCain-Lieberman ticket would be a disaster for all concerned, and especially for the GOP.”

& the Politico reports that Karl Rove personally called Lieberman:

“Republican strategist Karl Rove called Sen. Joseph I. Lieberman (I-Conn.) late last week and urged him to contact John McCain to withdraw his name from vice presidential consideration, according to three sources familiar with the conversation.

Lieberman dismissed the request, these sources agreed.

Lieberman “laughed at the suggestion and certainly did not call [McCain] on it,” said one source familiar with the details.

“Rove called Lieberman,” recounted a second source. “Lieberman told him he would not make that call.”

Rove did not immediately respond to a request for comment. “

Rove was slippery in how he responded to a direct question on Fox News. Pay close attention to the fact that he does not specifically deny that a call took place, only that Politico got the story wrong:

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Lieberman would help McCain win independents & women. But the pick’s a big risk in 2 ways:

1. It would deflate any kind of enthusiasm for McCain in Minnesota next week (& believe me, the amount of enthusiasm for this candidate is already fragile).

2. It might possibly keep a lot of GOP voters home on election day.

One argument that it won’t be Lieberman: McCain has said he’ll make the announcement on Friday, & make campaign stops with his veep choice on Saturday & Sunday. Lieberman is an observant Jew, & thus would refrain from campaigning on Saturday. That makes the veep rollout a little awkward. (UPDATE: He definitely won’t be the nominee - scroll down)

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Rove (& many others, in the Rush Limbaugh/Sean Hannity/Fox News/Country club Republican circuit) are pushing hard for Mitt Romney.

This too has its plusses & minuses.

Romney, as a millionaire many times over, wouldn’t help McCain eschew the image of a well-off ticket that’s out of touch with the economic concerns of ordinary Americans.

But he is perceived as having a command of economic issues, or at least more so than McCain.

& his debating skills would likely come close to making the debate with Joe Biden a level playing field.

mikehuckabee.jpg

But so would Mike Huckabee. I’ve been amazed that I’ve not seen his name in the discussions this week - & I admit that my floating of him being the choice has been poo-pooed in certain corners of the newsroom. So I may be totally off base here. But let’s look at his pros & cons, if nothing else for fun:

Huckabee is far closer to “working class,” which helps diminish McCain’s “well-off” vibe.

Again, his debating skills make going up against Biden a fair fight.

Huckabee on the ticket would virtually give much of the South to McCain. Romney did not do well at all in the primaries among southern working class voters. With Huckabee, McCain has a decent shot of getting all the states George Bush did in 2004.

He would have trouble north of the Mason-Dixon line, though, & also with independents who believe that the current administration has been a bit holier-than-thou.

_vote08blog10.jpgWe’ll know within 24 hours. What do you think? Whom should McCain pick? Whom should he avoid at all costs? I’d love to hear what you have to say! Post a comment!

UPDATE: Race 4 2008 has found the reason it won’t be Lieberman:

“The major thing standing in the way of a Lieberman Vice-Presidential pick for McCain is a seemingly small thing - an RNC rule that states that a Vice Presidential nominee must have been a Republican for at least 60 days prior to nomination.

There are only two ways around that rule as far as I know - the first being that Lieberman has already switched his party affiliation a couple months ago secretly without letting anybody know (highly, highly, highly unlikely). The other option would be for the delegates to vote to waive that rule at the RNC — and it’s not hard to imagine how that would go.

Color me skeptical, but I just don’t think John McCain would put the party through that kind of turmoil just to get a liberal Democratic candidate who already failed twice in running for the White House on a Republican ticket.”

Agree.

 

McCAIN NOT LETTING UP DURING DNC WEEK

August 27th, 2008, 1:06 pm by Dan Lehr

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This new spot, debuting today, is called “Tiny” & attacks Obama on Iran.

EQUAL TIME: Read Obama’s take on Iran on his website.

Also, Mitt Romney’s in Denver this week. Is he auditioning? We’ll know Friday!

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PICKIN’ TIME

August 22nd, 2008, 11:46 am by Dan Lehr

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With the AP story below, I shout comments from the sidelines in brackets.

obama-pointing.jpg WASHINGTON (AP) - Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama prepared to name his running mate, perhaps as early as Friday, from a small field that included at least one dark horse.
edwards_chet.jpg Democratic officials said little-known Texas Rep. Chet Edwards was one of the few Democrats whose background was checked by Obama’s campaign, and he was a finalist for the job. [unknown? then unlikely.]

Among others mentioned:

timkaine250x296.jpgGovs. Tim Kaine of Virginia [nope]

sebelius.jpgand Kathleen Sebelius of Kansas [nope], as well as

biden.jpgSens. Joe Biden of Delaware [very possible] and

bayh.jpgEvan Bayh of Indiana [possible, but not likely].

Obama was to appear Saturday in Springfield, Ill., with his No. 2, and disclose the name to the world through a text message that could be sent at any time before that event.

mondalevp.jpg[this is not the real text message.]

_vote08blog7.jpgWho’s it gonna be? I still am sticking to my guns that it will be a person that the media has not mentioned at all.

& as for McCain?

mccainromney.jpg Speculation’s swirling that it’s going to be Romney. Mark Halperin says he gets this info from two anonymous sources inside the McCain campaign. MSNBC’s First Read blog’s take on the pros & cons Romney would add to the ticket:

“How Mitt might fit: But if Romney’s the choice, here’s a quick rundown of his strengths and weaknesses as McCain’s VP. On the plus side, his business and managerial experience could benefit a candidate who once said “economics is not something I’ve understood as well as I should”; Romney could also help McCain in Michigan, given that his father was the former governor of the state; and the former Massachusetts governor could assist McCain in the competitive Mountain West states, which have strong Mormon populations (for example, 7% of Nevada’s population is Mormon). Among the minuses, McCain and Romney disagreed on several issues during the primaries (like immigration campaign finance reform); there were numerous reports that McCain didn’t personally like Romney (in fact, one McCain ad — quoting the Concord Monitor — called Romney a “phony”; then there are Romney’s highly publicized flip-flops (as a McCain Web ad back in January put it, “Mitt Romney’s flip-flops truly are masterpieces”); despite his good looks and impeccable appearance, Romney was never a natural campaigner on the stump; and there were plenty of polls suggesting that Romney’s Mormon faith was an obstacle with some voters.”

What say you, dear readers? Post a comment now!

ZOGBY: POWELL WOULD BOOST OBAMA’S CHANCES, HUCK & MITT WOULD HELP McCAIN

July 18th, 2008, 3:28 pm by Dan Lehr

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Likelihood to vote for Barack Obama if he chooses … as his Vice President
  Likely Voters Democrats Independents
  More Likely Less Likely More Likely Less Likely More Likely Less Likely

Colin Powell

42% 10% 42% 12% 43% 9%

Hillary Clinton

30% 25% 47% 15% 33% 26%

Bill Richardson

15% 10% 9% 13% 12% 9%

Joe Biden

11% 16% 6% 22% 11% 13%

Kathleen Sebelius

7% 11% 10% 11% 7% 9%

Tim Kaine

7% 11% 8% 10% 8% 8%

Evan Bayh

6% 12% 9% 9% 7% 9%

Zogby Poll: Obama/Powell Ticket Could Bode Well for Democrats

Survey finds Clinton VP pick favored by nearly half of Dems; Huckabee, Romney viewed as best running mates for McCain

UTICA, New York - As the Presidential candidates ponder potential running mates, a new Zogby International telephone poll shows many voters would be more inclined to vote for Democratic Sen. Barack Obama if he were to select retired four-star general and former Secretary of State Colin Powell as his running-mate.

If Obama were to choose Powell, 42% of likely voters nationwide said it would make them more likely to support the Democratic candidate - as did 42% of Democrats and 43% of political independents. The Zogby International telephone poll of 1,039 likely voters nationwide was conducted July 9-13, 2008, and asked respondents how the selection of certain vice presidential candidates would affect their likelihood to vote for the two leading presidential candidates. It carries a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percentage points.

_vote08blog12.jpgWhy I’m not surprised: Go back & read this Vote08 post from June 11th.

ALSO:

Powell Hints at an Obama Endorsement” (June 13th)

Computer Says Ideal VP for Both Dems & GOP is the Same Guy” (July 1st)

Colin Powell on Barack Obama” (April 10th)

Yes, it’s a long shot, but I’m going to go ahead on the record right here & now & say that Powell is my official prediction for Obama’s Veep. The major hurdle, I think, is Mrs. Powell, who was instrumental in keeping Powell out of the running in 1995. Stay tuned.

Meanwhile.. I’ve long thought Romney is the money-favorite as of right now, & that’s reinforced even with Huckabee’s numbers as outlined below. For McCain to have a comparable “WOW” pick to Powell, I’m picking his longshot Veep pick as Alaska Governor Sarah Palin.

 

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Former Republican rivals Huckabee and Romney could give McCain a boost

Among McCain’s potential vice presidential picks, former Republican nomination challengers Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney earned the strongest support from likely voters overall, as well as from Republicans and political independents. Among likely voters, 27% would be more likely to support McCain with Huckabee on the ticket, and 26% said the same if Romney were selected. A Huckabee pick would cause 13% of likely voters to be less likely to support McCain, while 11% would be less supportive of the presumptive Republican nominee if he were to choose Romney as his running mate. Among Republicans, 40% would be more likely to support a McCain/Huckabee ticket, while 11% would be less likely - a 29% net positive for the choice of Huckabee. If Romney were to be chosen, 41% of Republicans would be more inclined to vote for McCain, compared to 8% who would be less likely, for a net positive of 33%. Both fare well among political independents, with a 15% net positive for Huckabee and a 17% net positive for Romney if chosen as a running mate by McCain.

Likelihood to vote for John McCain if he chooses … as his Vice President
  Likely Voters Republicans Independents
  More Likely Less Likely More Likely Less Likely More Likely Less Likely

Mike Huckabee

27% 13% 40% 11% 29% 14%

Mitt Romney

26% 11% 41% 8% 30% 13%

Joe Lieberman

20% 17% 26% 16% 20% 22%

Charlie Crist

5% 10% 8% 12% 5% 9%

Bobby Jindal

5% 9% 7% 9% 6% 9%

Tim Pawlenty

3% 8% 3% 5% 1% 7%

Mark Sanford

3% 9% 3% 9% 2% 10%

QUESTION OF THE AFTERNOON: WHICH MAN IS JOHN MCCAIN’S MOST FORMIDABLE OPPONENT?

January 31st, 2008, 2:23 pm by Dan Lehr

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…& who gets the Gold, Silver & Bronze next Tuesday?

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