Rasmussen conducted the poll in Georgia on July 17th, & it shows little movement from the one we highlighted here, on June 30th.

McCain: 48%

Obama: 39%

Include “leaners” (people who might be persuaded one way or the tother), McCain’s lead widens to 53-42.

& the Bob Barr factor? Apparently not as big as previously estimated:

“Libertarian candidate Bob Barr who served in Congress as part of Georgia’s Congressional delegation picks up 5% of the vote initially, but only 1% when “leaners” are included. This means that up to 5% of voters now say they would vote for Barr but when asked a follow-up question only 1% remain committed to the man some view as a potential spoiler for McCain’s hopes.“

EARLIER: See our take on the results of the latest presidential poll in Tennessee (June 27th) here.

What do you think?

From Insider Advantage’s Southern Political Report:

Q. 1Georgia Presidential ballot:

McCain: 46%
Obama: 44%
Barr: 4%
Undecided: 6%

Q.2 “If Barack Obama selected Georgia’s former U.S. Senator Sam Nunn as his Vice Presidential running mate, would you be more or less likely to vote for Barack Obama?”

More likely: 51%
Less likely: 11%
No difference/Undecided: 38%

Analysis: Georgia, which has one of the highest African-American voting age populations in the nation along with an unusually young voter age population, remains the hidden battleground of the 2008 campaign. The Obama campaign is saturating television in the state, clearly believing that the 15 electoral votes in Georgia are up for grabs. It’s a credit to John McCain’s personal favorable ratings in the state (which are high) that he has continued to cling to this lead despite having little media presence. The deal breaker could be former United States Senator Sam Nunn, who left the Senate in the mid-1990s. Nunn, known as a top expert of foreign policy, has relatively low name identification in his home state after eleven years out of direct political circulation. But should he receive the nomination, Nunn would almost immediately become known in his home state as a former senator and the survey shows that with such knowledge, a majority of Georgians say they are more likely to vote for Obama. However, that does not equate to a vote for Obama. To determine the actual impact on the vote, one would need a direct comparison. Some suggest, with Florida looking more likely to go McCain, a Barack-Obama/Sam Nunn vs. John McCain/Sonny Perdue survey. Perdue had been mentioned as a potential VP nominee earlier in the year. Perhaps Nunn and Perdue are back on the radar screens.

Oh, bestill my heart, I don’t even want to fathom a dual-Georgia native veepstakes. Can you imagine?

By the way, Obama’s stopping in Georgia today (Tuesday) so we’ll have more on that later.

What do you think of this poll?

& hey, Georgia Vote08 viewers, particularly the hardcore conservatives who reside in the NewsChannel 9 viewing area! Now’s a good time for you to weigh in on Barr!

Tom Bevan of RealClearPolitics.com recently interviewed Tennessee Governor Phil Bredesen about Tennessee’s role in the presidential campaign, & about the inroads Obama still needs to make.

Read the interview in full after the jump.

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(above: waterfall at Old Stone Fort Park in Manchester)

This article’s a hoot, & examines some of the questions we asked its subject, Bill Hobbs of the Tennessee GOP, last week:

“What is in the Water in Anti-Obama Tennessee?”

by Sam Stein, the Huffington Post

There has been some lament within conservative circles over the absence of a clearly defined attack machine to take on Barack Obama. T. Boone Pickens, the financier of the Swift Boat Veterans for Truth effort, has pledged, at this juncture, to sit the election out. Republican insiders have worried about a lack of funds, and a public relations backlash that comes with launching such ads.

There has, however, been one organization at least nominally willing to step into this attack-politik void. And it isn’t one of the much-discussed discussed 527 variety.

The Republican Party of Tennessee has, on several occasions, trotted out lines of criticism against Obama that put them further down that road than even Karl Rove - the vaunted campaign attack alchemist - has been willing to go. The state’s GOP released a press release in late February, accusing the Democratic nominee of being anti-Israel, linking him to Louis Farrakhan, and featuring a photo of the Senator in African garb for good measure.

Nearly two months later, the party began circulating a video of Michelle Obama saying that she was proud of her country for the first time in her adult life, followed by a montage of Tennesseans discussing the essence of their patriotism (including, conspicuously, a guy at a pool table with a rack of guns behind him).

The attacks on the Obama have not been the strict purview of the state’s GOP party. A local conservative radio talk show host has been called out for consistently using Obama’s middle name - “Hussein” - on the air, while a member of Tennessee’s Democratic Executive Committee was forced to apologize recently after suggesting that Obama may have terrorist connections.

Taken together, these episodes constitute some of the most inflammatory rhetoric of the early campaign season and raise a fairly curious question: what is in the water in Tennessee?

“It is all over the rural parts of Tennessee,” said a Democratic source from the state. “And it’s not just Republicans. I took that temperature a few months ago and the Democratic Party warned me that even some Democratic officials were believing viral smears about Obama.”

Much of the Republican bile directed Obama’s way has come, observers say, from the state GOP’s communications director Bill Hobbs. A conservative activist and quasi-journalist, Hobbs is known as a somewhat controversial figure. In February 2006 he resigned from Belmont University in Nashville, where he was serving in the communications department, after posting a cartoon of a stick-figured Prophet Mohammed holding a bomb. The drawing, entitled “Mohammed Blows,” was meant to spotlight the media’s unwillingness to publish the infamous Danish cartoons on Islam.

The firing did not dissuade the Tennessee GOP from offering Hobbs a job, nor did it dissuade Hobbs from pushing the political envelop, which he has done with regularity since taking over the new post.

“I think that [Michelle Obama] video, which we put up on YouTube, struck a nerve. It struck a nerve with Democrats and they squealed and they squealed really loud, and it caused a big storm in the media,” he told the Huffington Post. As for whether a candidate’s wife should be off limits, he added, “It doesn’t matter if the campaign surrogate is married to the candidate or not. What campaign surrogates say on the campaign trail during the course of the campaign is fair game.”

But not everyone has been on board. And the reaction to Hobb’s work has become a telling illustration of just how difficult it has been for conservatives to settle on a line of attack against Obama. Tennessee’s two Republican Senators expressed reservations, with a staffer for Bob Corker demanding that the Michelle Obama spot be taken down, and a spokesman for Lamar Alexander suggesting that “there are probably better ways to communicate our pride in America.”

“You’ve got the more centrist, moderate Republicans who are frankly embarrassed by Hobbs,” said Ken Whitehouse, a political reporter for the Nashville Post. “I’ve got Republican members of the state legislature who are biding their time, keeping their mouth shut, but don’t like what he’s doing because he is drawing attention to himself and not the message. But at the same time you have people who want to fight and love him for it.”

Indeed, it has been rumored that Karl Rove warned the state’s party directors not to use Obama’s middle name (to insinuate that he is a Muslim) for fear that the GOP would be seen as bigots — which, if true, puts Bush’s brain in a milder camp than some of the state’s conservative figures. And yet, it was a Tennessee Democrat who made such an insinuation.

A few weeks ago, former state Rep. Fred Hobbs suggested that Obama “may be terrorist-connected,” based on a Fox News report about a Hamas “endorsement.” The remark drew a sort of perplexed and outraged response. (A Democratic superdelegate from the state, Lincoln Davis, declared through an aide that while “he does not know for sure if Obama is terrorist connected…he assumes he is not.”) Fred Hobbs quickly apologized while Bill Hobbs (not related) pounced on the Democratic dysfunction: “It is interesting to see that the state party claims to be unified behind Barack Obama but it is clearly not true.”

More objective sources were forced to insist that (polling be damned) the state was not inherently anti-Obama. But even they admit that the rhetoric emanating from their state, at least so far, has represented the greatest pushing of political boundaries.

“That came out of left field,” Whitehouse said of Fred Hobbs’ comment. “You are going to have people associated with every party and every state in the nation, you will have people like that. I don’t think it is a cultural thing… Does it look bad for Tennessee that both guys named Hobbs are doing this? Yes it looks bad. It is embarrassing as hell. But I don’t think these guys represent what mainstream Tennesseans believe.”

I do take umbrage at the writer’s apparent painting of many Tennesseans with one stripe, particularly with the way the headline is written. Yes, there is an audience in the Volunteer State that is receptive to this type of political play, but it seems that the article is far more about Hobbs & his methods than the entire state.

What do you think of this article? Post a comment & tell us!

Huzzah! A new Tennessee poll is in! Let’s dive in, shall we?

John McCain leads Barack Obama 51% to 36% in Tennessee, according to the latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state. Though McCain has a strong advantage, his lead has been cut nearly in half since April.

Two months ago, while Obama was still struggling to wrap up the Democratic Presidential Nomination, McCain led 58% to 31% in the Volunteer State. The current poll is the first conducted in the state since Hillary Clinton’s exit from the race.

McCain leads 61% to 29% among men, but the candidates are essentially even among women. McCain draws support from 87% of Republicans and holds a two-to-one advantage among unaffiliated voters. Obama is supported by 74% of Democrats.

The Republican nominee is viewed favorably by 60% of Tennessee voters and unfavorably by 37%. Those numbers are slightly less flattering than two months ago. Obama’s ratings are 42% favorable, 55% unfavorable. His ratings have improved marginally since April.

One in four Tennessee voters say they would be more willing to vote for Barack Obama if Tennessee Governor Phil Bredesen was on the ticket. Twenty-nine percent (29%) said they would be less likely to vote for the Democrats. The Governor earns good or excellent ratings from 56% of Tennessee voters, while 17% think he is doing a poor job.

The survey also found that while 77% of voters in Tennessee say they are willing to vote for an African American president, just 57% say most of their family, friends and co-workers would be willing to do so. Just 11% of voters say they would not be willing to vote for an African American for president, while 16% do not think their peers would either.

Two-thirds of voters in Tennessee (67%) say it is at least somewhat important the candidates choose a running mate from the South. Thirty percent (30%) think this is very important.

Tennessee voters are more split when it comes to the next President and the War in Iraq. While just about half of voters (48%) think it is more important the troops are brought home sooner, nearly the same amount (44%) think winning the war should be top priority. Tennessee voters are slightly more divided on this question than voters nationwide.

Sixty-six percent (66%) of voters in Tennessee think drilling in offshore oil wells should be allowed in order to help reduce fuel prices. One in five voters (20%) disagree. Those results are similar to those found on the national level. Over half of voters (58%) think it is likely fuel prices will drop if offshore drilling is allowed, while a third of voters find this unlikely.

Tennessee has cast its eleven Electoral College votes for the Republican candidate in four out of the last six presidential elections and is rated as “Likely Republican” in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator.

Rasmussen Markets data shows that Republicans are given a 85.0 % chance of winning Tennessee this November.

Digging deeper into the questions & responses is a fascinating exercise. We delve into them in full — & add pictures! — after the jump!

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Say this for the Tennessee GOP: they are definitely setting a goal of being one of the most visible state party organizations in the country in this presidential race. Check out our past coverage of their efforts here & here (the latter link forced Obama to say on Good Morning America “lay off my wife,” which we’ve said is something with which we don’t necessarily agree)

The above ad goes after Barack Obama’s energy plan, using a version of the “Popcorn” song we all hear in Tennessee lottery commercials these days & a cheesy 1970s font, presumably to take viewers on the wayback machine to the days of the (1st?) energy crisis.

The spot cannily makes use of Jay Leno (though we’d have recommended playing it just once) & Obama’s now-familiar chant “Yes We Can” to make its point.

But I’m concerned about one part of the clip, at 1:18, that seems to perpetuate an urban legend oft-repeated in the last month, that “China is drilling off the coast of Cuba.”

So I replied to their e-mail (subject line: “Tennessee GOP Proudly Releases New Web Video on Obama”):

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While this may be the closest look you get at McCain’s bus…

COMCAST BRINGS C-SPAN CPAAMPGN008 BUS TO CHATTANOOGA ON TUESDAY JUNE 24

Chattanooga, TN - Chattanooga residents will join the thousands who have boarded C-SPANs Campaign 2008 Bus as part of the Road to the White House tour when the bus stops at the African American History Museum on Tuesday, June 24. These events, in partnership with Comcast, are part of the buss inaugural Road to the White House tour, named after C-SPANs renowned political program that marks its 20th year on the air in 2008.

Where: African American History Museum

200 E. Martin Luther King, Jr. Blvd
Chattanooga, TN 37401

When: Tuesday, June 24, 2008

1:30 p.m. - 3:30 p.m.

The 45-foot mobile production studio is on the campaign trail to promote and enhance C-SPANs comprehensive political coverage. It is currently traveling to major political events such as candidate debates and speeches in primary states, touring state capitols, and conducting educational programs for teachers and students. Since its January 2007 launch, the bus has been to 43 state capitals, 134 universities and 195 schools where 374 elected officials, 4,780 teachers, over 40,400 students and 4 presidential candidates have been on board.

With interest in presidential politics growing were excited to get on the road now with the Campaign 2008 Bus, said Rodee Schneider, C-SPAN marketing representative. As the political network of record, were pleased to offer a variety of resources for educators, students, first-time voters and the general public as part of our extensive coverage of the 2008 presidential elections.

Interesting new numbers from InsiderAdvantage:

McCain And Obama Tied In Georgia

(6/19/08) A New InsiderAdvantage / PollPosition survey conducted June 18 of registered likely voters in the November presidential contest shows Sen. John McCain leading Sen. Barack Obama by a single point in Georgia, making the race in Georgia a statistical tie. Libertarian Bob Barr, a former Republican Congressman from Georgia, received 6 percent of the vote.

The telephone survey of 408 registered likely voters is weighted for age, race, gender, and political affiliation. The survey has a margin of error of +/- 5%. It was conducted with InsiderAdvantage’s research partner Majority Opinion Research. PollPosition is InsiderAdvantage’s new branding name (look for additional information and expansion of PollPosition in the coming months).

The Results:

McCain: 44%
Obama: 43%
Barr: 6%
Undecided: 7%

Analysis from InsiderAdvantage CEO Matt Towery:

“As Barack Obama has become the clear presumptive nominee of his party, the race has become defined and voters appear to be taking early stands in the race.

“Georgia is competitive for Obama for several reasons. First, it has a high African-American voting age population (VAP). Second, it has an unusually high percentage of younger voters (18-29). Both of these groups are more in the Obama camp, with black voters already at the 83 percent level and likely to climb.

“Equally important, like its neighbor Florida, Georgia has a high percentage of voters who consider themselves independent. Obama is carrying that critical swing vote by about 10 percent in the poll.

“In this survey, as in almost every survey we have seen or conducted, there is a ‘great divide’ among age groups. Among those 45 years of age and older, McCain is the clear leader. Among voters who are 44 years of age or younger, Obama leads.

“As to the Bob Barr effect, Barr’s numbers dropped slightly overall from our poll of Georgia in March. However, he remains at a 6% level, healthy for a Libertarian. And among senior voters he receives nearly 10% of the vote.

“My view is that Georgia, the 9th largest state in the nation with 15 electoral votes, will remain a major new battleground state through November. This changes the landscape of electoral politics as Georgia, North Carolina, Virginia, and perhaps another surprise southern state, join Florida as potential “swing states,” that cannot be presumed to vote Republican in 2008.”

What do you think of these numbers? Who will win Georgia? Post a comment now!

Is Georgia the new Ohio? Could be, according to a fascinating article by Newsweek’s Jay Newton-Small that says voter turnout in the Peach State could be crucial for both campaigns.

Some tidbits:

In Georgia, the Obama campaign has wasted no time, launching massive voter registration drives before he the primaries had even ended. “By some estimates we have about 600,000 African Americans in Georgia are eligible but unregistered. I think that number is a little high, but we will be working very hard to register as many voters as we can before the election,” said Jane Kidd, chairwoman of the Georgia Democratic Party. “Georgia is one of the most progressive southern states. There are a lot of people moving in, there’s a lot of transition, a lot of progressives.” Obama has 15 full-time paid staffers who have been in Georgia for over a month.

Though he may have a legitimate shot in Georgia, he currently trails McCain by a margin of 12.3 percentage points, according to an average of Georgia polls by the non-partisan website RealClearPolitics.com.

In 1992 Bill Clinton lost most of the Deep South, except for Georgia and his home state of Arkansas). In Georgia the third party candidacy of Ross Perot helped leach enough votes from President George H. W. Bush to deliver Clinton the state.

This year the Libertarian candidacy of former Georgia Congressman Bob Barr could help Obama in much in the same way. “Georgia would be very much in play, even if I weren’t in the race, and it will be even more so now that I am,” Barr told TIME. Republican presumptive nominee John McCain “does not really have a natural constituency in Georgia. Certainly, he’ll appeal to die-hard Republicans and certainly the military folks, but it’s not a state, if I were advising his campaign, that I would focus on.”

If Barr just wins his former district, to the west of Atlanta, he could sap more than 8% of the vote. A May Insider Advantage poll of likely Georgia voters showed Barr garnering just about that amount, to McCain’s 45% and Obama’s 35%. “I’m still not ready to call any of the Southern states probable for Obama,” said Larry Sabato, a political science professor at the University of Virginia. “If the election were held now, I think McCain would hold on in all of them. But Obama is going to bury McCain in expenditures, and thus broaden the playing field in his favor, and if economic conditions don’t improve rapidly, McCain’s chances of winning the election are quite small.”

African American voter participation in the 2008 Georgia primary, which Obama won by 36 percentage points over Clinton, increased 85% over the 2004 primary, for example. And there’s lots of room to grow from the last general election; in 2004 just 54.3% of the 1,090,000 registered blacks in Georgia voted. But black votes alone cannot win him Southern swing states like Georgia, according to David Bositis, senior political analyst at the non-partisan Joint Center, which tracks black voter trends. “In states that could potentially flip it isn’t just about increasing black turnout. They have to be states where Obama can win a fairly significant portion of whites,” Bositis said. In the Georgia primary Obama edged out Clinton among young white voters, but lost white voters over the age of 45 by more than 20 percentage points, according to CNN exit polls. “

Just look at the Georgia primary results map at the top of this post. In terms of the NewsChannel 9 viewing area [northwest Georgia], I can safely go ahead & say it’ll be John McCain by a large margin. But look how McCain did in the state versus Huckabee. He either has to invest a lot of time & money in this state or give it up. What would you do if you were McCain? What would you do if you were Obama? Post a comment!

Way back in February we snapped this shot of Justin Wilkins at the Hamilton County Democratic Delegate convention. He was named a delegate to the convention for Obama, & we’ve run into him a couple of times since. Justin’s a nice guy who’s never been involved in politics before, & that’s gotta warm your heart regardless of whom you support.

Since then, he has gotten to dine with Michelle Obama at a fundraiser in Nashville, & he’s created his own blog page on Barack Obama’s website.

His story is featured on the site’s main blog, which we’ll reprint here, after the jump.

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NewsChannel 9 received a press release earlier this morning from the ever-snarky Tennessee Republican party, that attacks Michelle Obama, who’s visiting the state capital soon.

The release contained a link to a YouTube clip that has “ordinary Tennesseeans” (any Democrats there?) talking about why they’re “proud” to be “Americans:”

UPDATE: The Obama camp responds:

“This is a shameful attempt to attack a woman who has repeatedly said she wouldn’t be here without the opportunities and blessings of this nation. The Republican Party’s pathetic attempts to use the same smear tactics to win elections have failed in Mississippi, failed in Louisiana, and will fail in November because the American people are looking for a positive vision of real change. And if the Tennessee Republican Party has a problem with Senator Obama, maybe next time they’ll have the courage to address him directly instead of attacking his family.”

What do you think?

Hillary Clinton can’t close the deal, & her prospects for securing the Democratic nomination are slimmer as of this morning.

Exit poll results here. Interesting tidbits:

• The college student vote was decidedly split in both states
• Voters who called the Jeremiah Wright issue “an important factor” in their vote went overwhelmingly for Clinton. The inverse was true for Obama - voters who didn’t care about it went overwhelmingly for him.
• Voters who made their minds up in the last week swung Clinton. Guess that gas tax holiday pander worked for a lot of folks.

Now for some Cherokee County results! This is the only North Carolina county in the NewsChannel 9 viewing area [in red in the above map]. Despite a huge loss across the state [particularly in the central region known as the “research triangle,”], Clinton won huge in Cherokee County, 73%-25%. Interestingly, neighboring Clay County had the exact same percentage with about half the number of voters than Cherokee County. Details here from the hometown paper, the Cherokee Scout.

Another interesting Cherokee County factoid:

• Total Democratic voters: 3224
• Total Republican voters: 1075

A majority-Democrat county in the south? Yes, it’s more common than you think - Grundy County, Tennessee often shakes out the same way, too. The reason? Many southerners are so conservative that they vote against Republicans because of “that rogue Abraham Lincoln.” No, seriously.

What about Rush Limbaugh’s “Operation Chaos” effect? It seems to have been a factor in Indiana, as outlined here. [by the way, we’d like to go on the record to say we have absolutely no problem with the strategy behind Operation Chaos. Democracies are messy things, & voters of all stripes have every right to vote how they want. To try to put a stop to it somehow would tarnish the democratic values we all share.]

Obama’s victory speech in North Carolina:

Clinton’s “victory” speech in Indiana [2 parts]:

So what happens next?

..ONLY THE UNCOMMITTED/UNDECLARED SUPERDELEGATES KNOW FOR SURE! STAY TUNED!!

…I know, I know - quite a stretch, right?

NASHVILLE, Tenn. (AP) - Tennessee Gov. Phil Bredesen says the Memphis Tigers’ loss to Kansas in the national championship gives some insight to the Democratic presidential race. The Tigers were ahead in regulation before missing several free throws and giving up a late 3-pointer to Kansas for the tie and overtime. The Jayhawks won 75-68.
Bredesen tells The Associated Press, “I was thinking at the game last night that the last 90 seconds were so extraordinary, you think it’s the kind of thing that keeps Hillary Clinton in the race.” He says any team is just a couple of mistakes or lucky breaks from winning or losing. Bredesen, who is a superdelegate, has yet to say whether he will support Clinton or Barack Obama for the nomination. He is pushing for a gathering of superdelegates to vote after the last state primary.

disagrees with the Gov’s analogy. basketball is probably not the right analogy. If this were a b-ball game, it would be early in the second half & Obama would be up by about 12-16 points.

Football or more likely baseball line up much better in comparison here. Just saying.

[p.s. Love the pic of Hillary up there for this post, as it looks like she’s trying for a basket from 3-point range.]

Do you know any North Carolina Democrats?

If so, tell them they need to vote on May 6th.

That’s because the outcome of the Tarheel State Democratic Presidential Primary got very crucial all of a sudden.

Details, including current NC polls, after the jump.

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Tennessee Senator Lamar Alexander was in the NewsChannel studios Thursday & was interviewed by Don Welch for ThisNThat. An excerpt aired on Thursday, & more will air on the show in the coming days. (it comes on at 12:30pm).

But you can watch the full interview right now on NewsChannel9.com.

Click here for the video link. The interview lasts about 11 minutes.

Highlights on the Presidential race:

• He says he would not be McCain’s Vice President if asked. He said he’d pull a list of names of better candidates out of his pocket to prove why he wouldn’t be the right guy.
• He thinks Mike Huckabee (who won the Tennessee primary) would make a good vice president.

Alexander has just kicked off his reelection bid, as his 6-year term is up this year.
Watch the interview & come back here to share your thoughts!

Tennessee Governor Phil Bredesen (D) argued in today’s New York Times that superdelegates should hold a primary in June to determine the Democratic nominee once & for all. Full text of the column after you click “read the rest of this entry.”

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Tennessee 4th District Congressman talked to NewsChannel9’s Amanda Shropshire today about his status as a superdelegate.

Davis remains uncommitted between Obama & Clinton, despite the fact that his district voted 79% in favor of her in the February 5th primary.

Find out how he’s been courted .. & how he might make his decision after the jump!

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