Vote '08

Hillary Clinton can’t close the deal, & her prospects for securing the Democratic nomination are slimmer as of this morning.

Exit poll results here. Interesting tidbits:

• The college student vote was decidedly split in both states
• Voters who called the Jeremiah Wright issue “an important factor” in their vote went overwhelmingly for Clinton. The inverse was true for Obama - voters who didn’t care about it went overwhelmingly for him.
• Voters who made their minds up in the last week swung Clinton. Guess that gas tax holiday pander worked for a lot of folks.

Now for some Cherokee County results! This is the only North Carolina county in the NewsChannel 9 viewing area [in red in the above map]. Despite a huge loss across the state [particularly in the central region known as the “research triangle,”], Clinton won huge in Cherokee County, 73%-25%. Interestingly, neighboring Clay County had the exact same percentage with about half the number of voters than Cherokee County. Details here from the hometown paper, the Cherokee Scout.

Another interesting Cherokee County factoid:

• Total Democratic voters: 3224
• Total Republican voters: 1075

A majority-Democrat county in the south? Yes, it’s more common than you think - Grundy County, Tennessee often shakes out the same way, too. The reason? Many southerners are so conservative that they vote against Republicans because of “that rogue Abraham Lincoln.” No, seriously.

What about Rush Limbaugh’s “Operation Chaos” effect? It seems to have been a factor in Indiana, as outlined here. [by the way, we’d like to go on the record to say we have absolutely no problem with the strategy behind Operation Chaos. Democracies are messy things, & voters of all stripes have every right to vote how they want. To try to put a stop to it somehow would tarnish the democratic values we all share.]

Obama’s victory speech in North Carolina:

Clinton’s “victory” speech in Indiana [2 parts]:

So what happens next?

..ONLY THE UNCOMMITTED/UNDECLARED SUPERDELEGATES KNOW FOR SURE! STAY TUNED!!

…I know, I know - quite a stretch, right?

NASHVILLE, Tenn. (AP) - Tennessee Gov. Phil Bredesen says the Memphis Tigers’ loss to Kansas in the national championship gives some insight to the Democratic presidential race. The Tigers were ahead in regulation before missing several free throws and giving up a late 3-pointer to Kansas for the tie and overtime. The Jayhawks won 75-68.
Bredesen tells The Associated Press, “I was thinking at the game last night that the last 90 seconds were so extraordinary, you think it’s the kind of thing that keeps Hillary Clinton in the race.” He says any team is just a couple of mistakes or lucky breaks from winning or losing. Bredesen, who is a superdelegate, has yet to say whether he will support Clinton or Barack Obama for the nomination. He is pushing for a gathering of superdelegates to vote after the last state primary.

disagrees with the Gov’s analogy. basketball is probably not the right analogy. If this were a b-ball game, it would be early in the second half & Obama would be up by about 12-16 points.

Football or more likely baseball line up much better in comparison here. Just saying.

[p.s. Love the pic of Hillary up there for this post, as it looks like she’s trying for a basket from 3-point range.]

Do you know any North Carolina Democrats?

If so, tell them they need to vote on May 6th.

That’s because the outcome of the Tarheel State Democratic Presidential Primary got very crucial all of a sudden.

Details, including current NC polls, after the jump.

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Tennessee Senator Lamar Alexander was in the NewsChannel studios Thursday & was interviewed by Don Welch for ThisNThat. An excerpt aired on Thursday, & more will air on the show in the coming days. (it comes on at 12:30pm).

But you can watch the full interview right now on NewsChannel9.com.

Click here for the video link. The interview lasts about 11 minutes.

Highlights on the Presidential race:

• He says he would not be McCain’s Vice President if asked. He said he’d pull a list of names of better candidates out of his pocket to prove why he wouldn’t be the right guy.
• He thinks Mike Huckabee (who won the Tennessee primary) would make a good vice president.

Alexander has just kicked off his reelection bid, as his 6-year term is up this year.
Watch the interview & come back here to share your thoughts!

Tennessee Governor Phil Bredesen (D) argued in today’s New York Times that superdelegates should hold a primary in June to determine the Democratic nominee once & for all. Full text of the column after you click “read the rest of this entry.”

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Tennessee 4th District Congressman talked to NewsChannel9’s Amanda Shropshire today about his status as a superdelegate.

Davis remains uncommitted between Obama & Clinton, despite the fact that his district voted 79% in favor of her in the February 5th primary.

Find out how he’s been courted .. & how he might make his decision after the jump!

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The Tennessee Republican party has drawn flack for a press release it issued earlier this week making repeated use of Barack Obama’s middle name, Hussein.

The release ostensibly questioned Obama’s commitment to the survival of Israel, a question Obama answered in Tuesday’s debate:

This answer makes Wednesday’s brouhaha all the more questionable. The Tennessee GOP went ahead & released the charge, despite the fact that the candidate seemed to answer most of the questions about his commitment to Israel & his credits to American Jews who have helped him on his campaign.

With that arrow taken out of the quiver, what remains is the releases repeated use of the candidate’s full name, including Hussein. The photo accompanying the release also makes the implication that Obama is some sort of “secret terrorist.”

Later in the day the TN GOP defended the release and the use of the name, saying “Richard Nixon often went by Richard Milhouse Nixon, and Hillary Clinton often went by Hillary Rodham Clinton.”

Again, this was all on the same day that presumptive GOP nominee John McCain repudiated similar comments made by a right-wing radio talk show host in Illinois made on the stage where McCain was about to appear. (hear more of that part of the story here & hear the criticism that host, Bill Cunningham, received from his own side of the aisle here).

McCain showed some much-needed leadership in criticizing the Tennessee GOP for the release:

“If I am the nominee of the party, I will obviously assure that everyone within my party knows that this has got to be a respectful debate.”

But it was Tennessee Senator Lamar Alexander who gets the most credit for playing the adult here. He personally asked the TN GOP to remove the picture & reference to “Hussein” from the website.

Obama has no reason to be ashamed of his name. It happens to be one of the most common names in the Muslim world, but that in no way reflects on whether or not he’s a Muslim.

Republicans, you have every reason to have hope that your side will win this year. Trying to tie Obama’s middle name to radical Islamic extremism only hurts your cause. If Republicans win this year, it will be on the issues, & not using tactics like these.

Don’t take my word for it; take Karl Rove’s, as reported by the Atlantic’s Marc Ambinder:

No less an authority figure than Karl Rove has warned Republican operatives from demagoguing Barack Obama’s middle name.

At a closed door meeting of GOP state executive directors in late January, Rove said the safest way to refer to Obama would be to use his honorific, “Sen. Obama.”

“The context was, you’re not going to stigmatize this guy. You shouldn’t underestimate him,” one of the executive directors said. Rove said that the use of “Barack Hussein Obama” would perpetuate the notion that Republicans were bigoted and would hurt the party.

& please don’t think this post is an attempt by Vote08 to promote one side or the other. This message should be heard by both parties. Liberals who thought they were promoting Democratic causes late last year actually hurt their cause when they published the “General Petraeus-Betray-Us ” ad in the New York Times. Frankly, Petraeus, not Vladimir Putin, deserved to be named Time’s Man of the Year this past year for what he has done to improve the situation on the ground in Iraq (& far more importantly, how he has successfully changed the mindset of those who are prosecuting that war).

Vote08 is in favor of civil discourse between both sides. We can have a presidential contest without stooping to this level.

Late this afternoon, the Tennessee Republican party issued a press release about some GOP state lawmaker’s long term health care plan, & how it contrasts with the one touted by (Democratic) Tennessee Governor Phil Bredesen. Bredesen’s middle name, Norman, was omitted.

The NewsChannel9 viewing area will get some heavy representation at this August’s Democratic Convention in Denver. Find out who they are after the jump.

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A couple of days late on this (remember, we’re on the mend from a nasty cold) but in case you missed it, Tennsseee Senator (& former Chattanooga mayor) Bob Corker was on Hannity & Colmes Monday night & was asked about his opinion of presumptive GOP presidential nominee John McCain.

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It didn’t matter which side would ultimately win. Both supporters of Hillary Clinton & Barack Obama had the same vision floating over their heads: a chance to become part of what may be one of the most exciting & consequential presidential conventions in the past half-century.

Everyone who turned up at the Iron Workers’ Union Hall on Belle Arbor Avenue in Chattanooga Saturday afternoon still has more hurdles before their dream trip to Denver in August is assured. Later this month, each of Saturday’s nominated delegates heads to Anderson County — Clinton, Tennessee, auspiciously enough — for the Congressional-District-wide delegate convention. That is where four Hamilton Countians — 2 men & 2 women, a supporter of both candidates from each gender — will have a shot at a trip to the Mile-High City. Hamilton County has not sent a Democratic delegate to the national convention in several elections. All who came to caucus hope to change that.

[For the record, Republicans choose their delegates a different way: voters select them on the ballot on Primary Day].

After the jump, Vote08 hears from some caucus-goers on each side & delineates demographic differences among these delegate-designees.

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JUST IN: NewsChannel9’s crew on the scene says Chuck Norris is in Chattanooga with Mike Huckabee!

Look for more details at noon on NewsChannel9 Midday & NewsChannel 9 at 5:30!

A NewsChannel9 staffer was at the rally. Read his account & see his photos after the jump:

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GOP Presidential candidate Mike Huckabee appears this morning for a rally at the Chattanooga Convention Center (1150 Carter Street), confirming Vote08’s prediction from January 26th. Huckabee is polling well on this side of Tennessee, & his volunteers were visible around Chattanooga this weekend.

The latest statewide poll (PDF file) from WSMV-TV in Nashville shows Huckabee is very alive in the Tennessee primary:

Mike Huckabee: 24%

John McCain: 23%

Mitt Romney: 18%

Ron Paul: 4%

Don’t Know Yet: 26%

…but as you can see, “don’t know” is the winner so far. Therefore, heeeere’s Huckabee.

Huckabee’s lead is in west Tennessee and here in east Tennessee. He has a 10 point lead in the west but just a 4-point lead here in the east. He also polls better with women than with men.

The voter shift from supporting Fred Thompson is also an interesting number to track. 46% of Tennessee Republicans say they would have given Fred their support. The polls show a fairly even shift to McCain, Romney & Huckabee from Thompson supporters, but still over a quarter of former Thompson supporters remain undecided.

So simply put, Huckabee has every reason to visit Chattanooga today.

Tennessee State Rep. Eric Watson will be welcoming Huckabee at a rally this morning at 8am. Huckabee will do interviews after the rally at about 9:15.

Should you go if you can? Absolutely. This goes for everyone of any political stripe. These events happen with the rarity of solar eclipses, and regardless of how you feel about the man it’s still a fun event to witness. This will probably be (but who knows) the last presidential candidate to visit Chattanooga until after Super Tuesday.

Depend on NewsChannel 9 and NewsChannel9.com (not to mention Vote08) to keep you up to date on what’s happening. If you’re checking this blog after you went to see him, drop us a line! We’d love to hear your story or share your photos!

p.s. What are ‘hustings?’ (see headline) Here’s a definition.

John Edwards has come & gone!
Here’s a link of how the crowd was warmed up before he got there.

Here’s video of Edwards arriving at the IBEW.

Here’s the 1st part of his speech.

Here’s the 2nd part of his speech.

Here’s the 3rd part of his speech.

& here’s his departure.

Kudos to NewsChannel 9 backpack journalist & web master Richard Simms, who shot the footage and uploaded it to NewsChannel 9’s main website from the event.

Tonight on NewsChannel 9 at 5:30, NewsChannel9’s Kim Fields reports extensively on Edwards’ visit. You’ll also hear Ted Kennedy endorse Obama, get a rundown of where things stand in Florida, and hear how many people in Hamilton County have already voted early! I hope you’ll tune in!

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OTHER AFTERNOON CAMPAIGN NEWS:

The group Tennessee Right to Life endorses Mike Huckabee for President: “Our members recognize Mike Huckabee as ‘one of us’ and that enthusiasm is driven by his demonstrated record of leadership and sacrifice toward the shared cause of protecting life.”

Author Toni Morrison, who famously first called Bill Clinton “the first black president,” has endorsed Barack Obama. For those keeping score, the Kennedys (Caroline & Ted), Oprah, and now Morrison are in the Obama camp. Quite a lot of buzz in the newsroom this morning about the eloquence of Caroline’s New York Times endorsement. But the Wall Street Journal breaks down poll numbers in the bigger super Tuesday states that show Hillary Clinton still has the advantage.
Tune in to Vote08 tomorrow for a preview of the Florida primary!

The Tennessee Valley gets its first up-close glimpse of the 2008 Presidential campaign today. John Edwards appears at the IBEW Local 175 at 3922 Volunteer Drive at 11:15 a.m.

Directions: Take the Bonny Oaks exit off of 153 & head towards downtown Chattanooga (west). Take your 1st left onto Industry Drive & then another left onto Volunteer Drive.

Recapping what I said this weekend: There are two ways for candidates to make an impact on a local market like Chattanooga: a) buy ads in local media, and b) visit. Edwards’ 3rd place standing means he doesn’t have as much cash as his rivals, so he’s opting for b).

He’s scheduled for an event in Nashville at 1:30 CST, which is 2:30 EST. Assuming he’s on schedule (as one never should) that means we’re looking at an hour & 15 minutes of Edwards face time. That’s maximum, but I would guess the time you’ll be able to see him is close to half that.

Should you go if you can? Absolutely. This goes for everyone of any political stripe. These events happen with the rarity of solar eclipses, and regardless of how you feel about the man it’s still a fun event to witness. Depend on NewsChannel 9 and NewsChannel9.com (not to mention Vote08) to keep you up to date on what’s happening.

Edwards made a stop yesterday in Dublin, Georgia. If you live in north Georgia and are a fan, this Chattanooga visit is likely your only chance to see him.

Crunching Edwards’ 2004 TN Primary Numbers

A recent poll shows Edwards is doing better in east Tennessee than the rest of the state. So how did he do in the last primary season? USElectionAtlas.org crunches the 2004 numbers for Hamilton County. They show Edwards came in third behind John Kerry & Wesley Clark in Hamilton County, with 19% of the vote.

By contrast Edwards did far better in Bradley County in 2004, coming in 2nd to Kerry with 26%. That number conforms with other Tennessee counties in the NewsChannel9 viewing area, and mirrors his ultimate 2004 Volunteer State primary outcome.

So there’s a good chance Edwards’ campaign took those lower-than-the-rest-of-the-neighborhood 2004 Hamilton County numbers into account when deciding to visit Chattanooga today.

A higher amount of support for Edwards is reflected in the latest NewsChannel9.com web poll of the Democratic field, which closed earlier today. Here are the results:

Which Democratic presidential candidate will get your vote in the upcoming February 5th primaries?
Hillary Clinton 34%
Barack Obama 15%
John Edwards 20%
I’m Still Undecided 4%
None of Them 27%
Total Votes: 453

Edwards comes in second, reflecting real, scientific poll numbers. Also interesting: this poll only had 2/3rds as much participation than in the Republican web poll we did last week.

Check back with Vote08 throughout the day for updates on Edwards’ visit!