Click here to view the embedded video.

Winning South Carolina, less than 6 months after his campaign was declared dead. This GOP primary campaign was truly one for the ages, & McCain deserves quite a bit of praise for keeping hope alive back in the dark days.

LOW WATER MARK

Click here to view the embedded video.

The day the economic crisis kicked into high gear, he declares ‘the fundamentals of the economy are strong.’

I believe this moment is the ‘fulcrum’ around which the entire dynamic of the campaign turned. There was the campaign before this moment, & the campaign after this moment.

Post from: The Blog Formerly Known As Vote '08

Above: watch the ABC story on the ad the McCain campaign ultimately decided not to run (it appears 76 seconds into this clip).

Would it have made a difference?

I think perhaps mildly, but not enough to change the outcome.

Post from: The Blog Formerly Known As Vote '08

I’m doing some end-of-the-year blogroll maintenance (the blogroll is the list of websites I’ve linked that you can see on the right hand side of this website).

& one of the ones I’m removing is John McCain’s campaign website.

There’s nothing there anymore but a message to supporters. Click here to read it.

I hope this doesn’t disappoint.

I will say that McCain’s website did ultimately disappoint me throughout the year. I was frustrated at the lack of blog posts (for a while, one every three days, then, near the end, one every day - all the while Obama’s had 10, 11, sometimes even 15 posts a day to his blog).

Republicans, you have got to master the internet next time around if you expect to succeed.

Post from: The Blog Formerly Known As Vote '08

I can tell you’re just heartbroken, Republicans, especially by the way he seems to be on many of your minds this week.

Post from: The Blog Formerly Known As Vote '08

Now it can be told: McCain & Obama’s camps were a little tighter back in the summer than we were led to believe.

From the Washington Note’s Steve Clemons:

“A senior Obama campaign official shared with The Washington Note that in July 2008, the McCain and Obama camps began to work secretly behind the scenes to assemble large rosters of potential personnel for the administration that only one of the candidates would lead.

Lists comprised of Democrats and Republicans were assembled, sorted into areas of policy expertise, so that the roster could be called on after the election by either the Obama or McCain transition teams.

This kind of out-of-sight coordination is rare between battling presidential camps and provides some indication that both Obama and McCain intended to draw expertise into their governments from both sides of the aisle — or at least they wanted to appear interested in doing so if the information leaked out about the list development process.”

I knew it!

I knew something like this was going on.

Post from: The Blog Formerly Known As Vote '08

JEFFERSON CITY, Mo. (AP) - Final vote count shows McCain wins Missouri.

Absolutely final electoral tally: 365-173

More:

JEFFERSON CITY, Mo. (AP) - Republican John McCain has defeated President-elect Barack Obama in Missouri - the last state to be decided in the 2008 presidential election.
McCain’s narrow victory over Obama breaks a bellwether streak in which Missourians had picked the winning presidential candidate in every election since 1956.
With all jurisdictions reporting complete but unofficial results, McCain led Obama by 3,632 votes Wednesday out of more than 2.9 million cast - a margin of 0.12 percentage points.
Both men spent considerable resources trying to win Missouri, a state that Obama ultimately did not need for his national victory.
Obama won 365 electoral votes. Missouri’s 11 electoral votes will give McCain 173.

Post from: The Blog Formerly Known As Vote '08

The joint statement issued by both camps:

“At this defining moment in history, we believe that Americans of all parties want and need their leaders to come together and change the bad habits of Washington so that we can solve the common and urgent challenges of our time.  It is in this spirit that we had a productive conversation today about the need to launch a new era of reform where we take on government waste and bitter partisanship in Washington in order to restore trust in government, and bring back prosperity and opportunity for every hardworking American family.  We hope to work together in the days and months ahead on critical challenges like solving our financial crisis, creating a new energy economy, and protecting our nation’s security.”

Post from: The Blog Formerly Known As Vote '08

CHICAGO (AP) - President-elect Barack Obama’s transition office says the Democrat will meet with vanquished Republican rival John McCain on Monday.

In announcing the meeting, Obama spokesman Stephanie Cutter said the pair will :”discuss ways to work together” to improve the quality of government and services to the people.
Cutter also said the two will be joined at Obama’s Chicago transition office by Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, a McCain confidant, and Rep. Rahm Emanuel, the Illinois Democrat whom Obama has chose to be his White House chief of staff.

Post from: The Blog Formerly Known As Vote '08

Pity he didn’t revisit the “we are all Georgians now” line.

Post from: The Blog Formerly Known As Vote '08

“I’ve been sleeping like a baby,” the GOP candidate said on The Tonight Show Tuesday. “I sleep two hours, wake up and cry. Sleep two hours, wake up and cry.”

Watch the appearance here.

Post from: The Blog Formerly Known As Vote '08

KNOXVILLE, Tenn. (AP) - Their presidential candidate lost and their influence in national politics may be waning, but white born-again Christians clearly won the 2008 election in Tennessee.
Even for the buckle of the Bible Belt, their majority was surprising - two of every three white voters in Tennessee identified themselves as evangelical Christians in exit polls.
This in a state where 84 percent of the voters are white.
Political pollster Ken Blake says the importance that John McCain’s supporters put on shared values underscores the role that religion plays in Tennessee presidential politics. Those values included opposition to abortion.
McCain carried Tennessee but lost the election. Yet white evangelicals likely helped elect new Republican majorities in the Tennessee Legislature.
Overall, 52 percent of Tennessee voters were white born-again Christians. Only Arkansas, with 55 percent, was higher.

Other interesting factoids about November 4th & the religious:

-More evangelicals voted for McCain than voted for Bush in 2004.

-12 million self-described ‘weekly churchgoers’ voted for Obama.

Post from: The Blog Formerly Known As Vote '08

Obama 44%, McCain 56%

(that’s an improvement for the Dem candidate - Kerry, Vietnam War veteran, got 41% in 2004)

Much more on what members of the military think about it all here.

Post from: The Blog Formerly Known As Vote '08

I’m sure McCain is bushed after 2 years of constant campaigning - but he’s still got enough energy to help out in the Georgia Senate runoff race, & you have a chance to see him this week. From my e-mail inbox:

Please join

Senator and Mrs. Saxby Chambliss

and invited guests:

for a Victory Rally featuring Special Guest

Senator John McCain

Thursday, November 13, 2008

4:30 – 5:30 pm

Cobb Energy Performing Arts Center

Kessel D. Stelling, Jr. Ballroom

2800 Cobb Galleria Parkway Atlanta, Georgia 30339

RSVP: Please email rsvp@saxby.org or call 678-589-4888.

Please arrive on time.

Do you plan to go?

If so, I’d love to hear from you - either before or after the event.

Drop me a line!

Post from: The Blog Formerly Known As Vote '08

~~~August 31st~~~

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~~>the Sunday after McCain picks Palin<~~

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[IN TERMS OF POLLING, NEAR THE HIGH WATER MARK OF McCAIN'S CAMPAIGN]

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How did state polls move in the next 3 months?

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Click here for the answer.

Post from: The Blog Formerly Known As Vote '08

Hamilton County Voter Turnout Bucks National Trend

Thanks go to my News Director, who found these on Hamilton County’s Election Commission site:

2008: 72%

2004: 78%

2000: 64%

1996: 67%

Nationwide 2008 turnout: Estimated at 62.5%, up from 60.3%

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Unemployment Spikes

We learn today that 240,000 jobs were lost in October; the national rate goes up from 6.1% to 6.5%.

Read more about it here.

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Transition Underway

Illinois Congressman Rahm Emmanuel signs on as WH Chief of Staff. Read the statements from both Obama & Emanuel here.

Why Rahm? Marc Ambinder muses.

Hillary Clinton approves of the pick, House Minority Leader John Boehner does not.

The Emanuel pick signals the transition will be quick; read more about the overall plan here.

Obama plans to give his 1st news conference as president-elect; read more about what he’ll reveal today here.

Before that newser, he’ll hold a conference with his economic advisers; read more about that here.

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The Autopsy: What Went Wrong?

Charles Krauthammer says it was the economy:

“We have never had a full-fledged financial panic in the middle of a presidential campaign. Consider. If the S&P 500 were to close at the end of the year where it did on Election Day, it will have suffered this year its steepest drop since 1937. That is 71 years.

At the same time, the economy had suffered nine consecutive months of job losses. Considering the carnage to both capital and labor (which covers just about everybody), even a Ronald Reagan could not have survived. The fact that John McCain got 46 percent of the electorate when 75 percent said the country was going in the wrong direction is quite remarkable.”

Andrew Sullivan disagrees with Krauthammer’s premise.

He’s correct in that assessment, but I’d also give as much weight to the damaged Republican brand.

It’s my view that that the country did not swing more Democratic, as some left-leaning sites are saying. I would say this is a vote more against ideology & for pragmatism. This is a trend I’ve tracked ever since August 29th, 2005. & I believe Tuesday’s voters weren’t necessarily giving Democrats a big thumbs up - they were giving a thumbs-down to the ineffective policies of the party in power, which happened to be the Republicans.

Voters are hungry for results & had their fill of ideologues.

As I’ve said to many in the past 3 years, the successful politicians will be those who work to deliver results to their consituencies - no matter which party they belong to.

More thoughts throughout the day.

Weigh in yourself! Why did McCain lose?

***(note: “e-day” = election day, “i-day” = inauguration day)

Post from: The Blog Formerly Known As Vote '08

Above: Fox News’ Carl Cameron has an inside tip from a McCain staffer that Sarah Palin

a. Couldn’t name the countries in NAFTA

b. Didn’t realize Africa was a continent, not a country

c. Repeatedly threw temper-tantrums at bad press clippings, &

d. Did not adequately prepare for the now infamous Katie Couric interview.

The New York Times has more here.

While this does conform with other stories about Sarah Palin’s lack of ‘knowledgeability,’ & it definitely adds weight to the story that it’s leaked to Fox News, it’s worth pointing out that post-election revealed internal strife is a common occurrence in a losing campaign.

I would hesitate to call these allegations true until we have a face to put behind these allegations.

Regardless of whether they’re true, I still believe Sarah Palin was an astoundingly poor choice for John McCain. While she provided a temporary boost in the polls, the transparency of this cynical pick on John McCain’s part revealed to voters that he was far more concerned with winning an election than with picking the right person. & that’s a quality -putting winning above all else- we have seen far too often in the current administration, much to the detriment of this country.

& Palin defenders, you need to ask yourselves: how would you have treated a pick like this if it came from the Democrats?

What do you think?

Post from: The Blog Formerly Known As Vote '08

Post from: The Blog Formerly Known As Vote '08

Live Blogging the Results

Note: head on over to our live web streaming at 7:30pm!

Kentucky called for McCain, Vermont called for Obama.

Marc Ambinder:

76% of the country believes it’s off on the wrong track.

Bush’s approval rating is 27%

More than 60% say the economy is their top voting issue; 9 in ten say the economy is in bad shape; more than 80% are worried about their own condition next year.

Change voters made up 35% of the electorate; 30% wanted someone who shared their values.

One in ten voters are late-deciders..

And CNN tells us that of those who listed Iraq as a key issue, Obama’s leading two to one.

Tons of exit poll goodies can be seen here.

Here are some just in from the AP:

Six in 10 voters name the economy as the top issue.

None of the other issues - energy, Iraq, terrorism or health care - was picked by more than one in 10.

Half of voters said the economy was poor and nearly all the rest said it was not good.

Half of voters are very worried the economic crisis will harm their family’s finances and a third were somewhat worried.

More than half oppose the $700 billion government bail-out plan.

Two-thirds of voters were worriewd about being able to afford health care.

One in 10 voters said they were casting ballots for the first time and 6 in 10 (of those voters) were under 30.

Message to pollsters: a quarter of new voters don’t have landlines at home, only cell phones.

Six in 10 voters said future appointments to the Supreme Court were an important factor in their decision.

Two-thirds of voters favor drilling for oil in offshore waters where it is currently not allowed.

Top 10 Reasons You Should Ignore Exit Polls

What I’m Looking for in Georgia:

From 538.com:

“In Georgia..African-Americans represented 35% of the early vote, and 25% is the historical high. If Georgia winds up with 30% of the vote remaining African-American, Obama wins Georgia.”

Watch those exit polls from Georgia that reflect African-American turnout.

From CNN, via the LA Times:

About 62% of those surveyed cited the economy as the top issue on their minds. Ten percent cited the war, 9% percent chose terrorism, and 9% went with health care.

This post says we won’t see “true” exit polling data until about 8pm.

Post from: The Blog Formerly Known As Vote '08

With 1 Day to Go, a Family Tragedy

CHARLOTTE, N.C. (AP) - Barack Obama says that his grandmother has died.
The Democratic presidential candidate announced the news in a joint statement with his sister Maya Soetoro-Ng. He said his grandmother, Madelyn Dunham, had died peacefully after a battle with cancer.
He said: “She was the cornerstone of our family, and a woman of extraordinary accomplishment, strength, and humility. She was the person who encouraged and allowed us to take chances.”
The candidate learned of her death Monday morning while he was campaigning in Jacksonville, Fla. He planned to go ahead with campaign appearances.
Late last month, Obama took a break from campaigning and flew to Hawaii to be with the 86-year-old Dunham, who helped raise him.

Read Obama’s family’s statement here.

Yes, she did already vote absentee for her grandson.

Read more on Obama’s grandmother in this Vote08 post.

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Election Day Forecast

The Storm Track 9 weather team tells me that the only weather events that might possibly effect voters is some rain that’ll hit eastern NC & eastern VA.

I’m told the rain will be light.. with a year that’s seen turnout busting all records, I hazard a guess that weather won’t play into the final outcome.

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Above: Obama in Columbus, Ohio today.

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Above: Biden in Lee’s Summit, Missouri today

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Above: McCain in Moon Township, PA (I’m still looking for his Blountville, TN appearance on the YouTubes)

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Above: Sarah Palin in Jefferson City, Missouri

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Post from: The Blog Formerly Known As Vote '08

What’s going on?

In this post, which will remain up until Tuesday night, I’m pulling back the curtain & showing you exactly what news about campaign 2008 I am checking throughout the day.

The most recent entry will be at the top; to start from the beginning, scroll to the bottom.

& I want to hear what you think! Click here to post a comment.

Calvin Can’t Stop Talking about McCain’s Tennessee Stop

Amazing on a day when his beloved Tennessee Vols are in the news.. Calvin says he’s got a better idea for McCain’s strategy in winning NC & VA than stopping in Blountville:

A campaign stop in the Tri-Cities was bad strategy for McCain, trying to woo SW Virginia and Western NC voters.. True, two of the three TV stations with strong VHF signals (WCYB-TV, Channel 5 and WJHL-TV, Channel 11), do indeed blanket all of SW Virginia and part of Western North Carolina.

But SW Virginia voters work and shop in Tri-Cities, Tennessee. As a result, they are usually politically aligned with their neighbors in Upper East Tennessee.. SW Virginia voters are mostly Republican, voting the same way upper East Tennessee has voted for generations, and this includes absentee voting, early voting, and Election Day-of voting.

A Republican visit by a presidential candidate and covered heavily on Tri-Cities TV, only reinforces the way SW Virginia voters are going to vote anyway.

AND, Tri-Cities stations only get marginally viewership from Western North Carolina counties, and even then, mostly along the TN-NC border, because the mountains cut the signals off.

A much better media consideration for McCain would have been, a stop in Asheville, North Carolina, and then one in Roanoke, Virginia.. The 3 main reasons being:

1) Only two years ago, Western North Carolina elected Democrat Heath Shuler to Congress, and Tri-Cities station signals simply don’t reach that far down into that state. 2) The Roanoke TV market. A McCain visit in Roanoke would have had more of an impact on Central Virginia voters that all watch WSLS-TV, WDBJ-TV and WSET-TV from Roanoke-Lynchburg, and would have given McCain double-coverage, because Tri-Cities TV stations, mindful of their SW Virginia audience, would cover it extensively for their SW Virginia viewers anyway.

3) WLOS-TV, Asheville. With a transmitter signal coming from atop one of the highest points in the Eastern United States, and blanketing ALL of Western North Carolina, a McCain visit would have saturated the western third of the state, including that Democratic pocket that elected Heath Shuler, and also have been covered extensively by the rest of the North Carolina media.

Thanks, Calvin! .

Election Day Times

Mon/2:07pm

Click here for a full rundown of election times in Tennessee, Georgia, Alabama & North Carolina.

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Mor McCane Mispellingz

Mon/1:49pm

Think Progress has discovered three instances of misspelled words in McCain’s ads that have aired in the last month.

Come on, guys! Do you really have to get them out that fast?

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The Dog That Didn’t Bark

Mon/1:23pm

The Politico’s Jonathan Martin speculates what the 2008 campaign would look like if McCain & surrogates used Rev. Wright as an issue more:

“Conversations with a number of veteran GOP consultants indicate that using Wright may have helped McCain with one set of voters — but would have hurt with others and not ultimately proved decisive in a contest subsumed by larger external forces such as the economic crisis and the unpopularity of President Bush and the Republican Party.”

McCain deserves credit for not ‘going there.’

As Liddy Dole is about to find out, attacking someone’s faith only ends up hurting the attacker in the end.

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Why’s He in Tennessee Today?

Mon/1:18pm

He’s stopping in Blountville - you can be assured I’ll be looking for clips to post later today.

But why Blountville? He’s got the Volunteer State wrapped up.

Marc Ambinder says:

So why is Sen. McCain campaigning in Blountville, TN?

It has nothing to do with Blountville.

It has everything to do with the parts of rural North Carolina and rural Virginia that share its media market.

NewsChannel9 anchor & expert in all things ‘upper-east Tennessee’ Calvin Sneed says:

“I already knew that.. One-third of the audience that WCYB-TV and WJHL-TV reach are in Southwest Virginia up to Roanoake, and Western North Carolina, within a 70 mile circumference of Asheville. Too bad Kentucky is not a swing state. Those two stations also blanket Eastern-Southeastern Kentucky. I also knew two weeks ago, he’d be coming to Tri-Cities before the end of the campaign.”

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Good Gravy!

Mon/1:12PM

As if Georgia’s not enough (scroll down), check out North Carolina’s polls, which have tightened as of today.

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Mapping a McCain Win

Mon/11:48am

Nate Silver looks at several computer models. His top projection is above.

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If You’re Reading This, You’re Part of the Revolution

Mon/10:47am

Look at these numbers from Pew, which shows internet usage has TRIPLED this year, while TV & newspaper usage remains static.

Truly amazing.

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“My Wife Made Me Canvass for Obama”

Mon/10:40am

Read what a former Bush voter in North Carolina found out about voters while canvassing with his wife.

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The Five States to Watch on Election Night

Mon/10:34am

Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight.com (one of the true internet stars of Campaign 2008) says the states to keep an eye on will be:

1. Virginia

2. Colorado

3. Pennsylvania

4. Ohio

5. Nevada

Read why here.

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Does Obama Realistically Have a Shot at Arizona?

Mon/10:30 am

Marc Ambinder speculates & has some things to watch in the Grand Canyon State tomorrow night.

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Not All TN Polling Times Are the Same

Mon/10:16am

The election director in Polk County, TN just e-mailed NewsChannel9:

Please have Channel 9 broadcast Polk, Meigs, and McMinn County Polling Hours on Tuesday, November 4, 2008, to BEGIN AT 9:00 A.M. AND CLOSE AT 8:00 P.M. Your viewers hear Hamilton County hours and assume ours is the same. Your help will be greatly appreciated.

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“Phone Gap” in the Polls?

Mon/10:12am

“The cellphone polls have Obama ahead by an average of 9.4 points; the landline-only polls, 5.1 points.”

- Nate Silver, FiveThirtyEight.com

. Click here to view the embedded video.

Obama in Cincinnati

Mon/10:03am

Above: Obama in Cincinnati yesterday.

I’m keeping an eye out for clips of the candidates today, so check back later.

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Click here to view the embedded video.

McCain in Florida

Mon/10:01am

Above: a midnight rally in Miami, last night.

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Where the Race Stands

Mon/9:54am

Above: NBC’s Chuck Todd maps out McCain’s path to victory.

From Chuck & others at MSNBC’s First Read blog:

*** Obama has a clear lead: With just a day left until Election Day, Obama holds an eight-point lead over McCain among likely voters, 51%-43%, according to the final national NBC/WSJ poll before the election. That’s down slightly from Obama’s 53%-to-42% advantage from almost two weeks ago. Still, to put his current lead into perspective, the last NBC/WSJ survey before the 2004 presidential election showed Bush with a slim one-point edge over Kerry, 48%-47%. Bush went on to win that election, 51%-48%. Looking inside the crosstabs, Obama’s advantage is largely based on his overwhelming success with African Americans (winning them 90%-3%), Latinos (68%-27%), and 18 to 34 year olds (59%-38%). It’s about as solid of a three-legged support stool as any candidate could ask for. Obama also wins independents (48%-38%), blue-collar voters (51%-44%), suburban voters (49%-44%), and Catholics (49%-46%). McCain, meanwhile, has the advantage among evangelicals (78%-19%), those 65 and older (53%-40%), white men (54%-42%), and white women (48%-47%). One more thing: 30% say they’ve already voted, and those voters break by an identical 51%-43% margin. One thing that might keep the McCain folks somewhat hopeful about our numbers: We have Democrats with a +10 advantage on party ID; McCain’s team believes the electorate won’t produce that margin tomorrow.

*** Liking McCain but loving Obama: The poll also shows that McCain and Obama are pretty well liked by voters. McCain has a 47%-39% fav/unfav rating, while Obama’s is larger at 56%-35%. But what’s striking is the intensity gap — almost twice as many respondents (44%) rate Obama “very positive” than they do for McCain (24%). In short, McCain’s supporters like him, but Obama’s LOVE him. Think about that 44% number for a minute: Obama’s overall ballot number is 51%, meaning that 86% of Obama’s supporters have a VERY positive view of him. Not since Reagan in 1980 has a base of supporters loved its nominee so much. Also, for the second-straight NBC/WSJ poll, Palin has a net-negative fav/unfav (39%-48%), while Biden has a net-positive one (50%-30%). In fact, if you add up Obama’s and Biden’s favorable scores, you get 106; for McCain-Palin, it’s 86.

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Good Grief!

Mon/9:45am

Georgia has become THE state to watch.

Just look at those polls!

It’s quite possible (& I chose it as such in the pool) that it could be the state with the closest margin of victory for either candidate.

The Senate race, I believe, is still Saxby Chambliss’ to lose.. but that prediction gets upended, I think, with an Obama upset.

What do you think?

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Where They’re Headed in the Final Stretch

Mon/9:39am

From the AP: “UNDATED (AP) - As if today’s fever-pitch campaigning weren’t enough, the presidential candidates will break tradition and stump on Election Day. John McCain goes to Colorado and New Mexico. Barack Obama swings through Indiana before returning to Chicago. McCain rallied Latino voters just after midnight in Miami. Later this morning, he takes his message to Tampa, then to Tennessee, where he’ll be able to hit the Virginia media market. Pennsylvania, Indiana, New Mexico, Nevada and Arizona also will see McCain. Running mate Sarah Palin is trying to woo conservatives in Ohio, Missouri, Iowa, Colorado and Nevada. Obama’s route is geographically less demanding. He rallies this morning in Jacksonville, Fla., and later goes to Virginia and North Carolina. His running mate, Joe Biden, is going to Missouri, Ohio and Pennsylvania. Polls show the six closest states are Florida, Indiana, Missouri, North Carolina, Nevada and Ohio. The campaigns also are running aggressive ground games elsewhere, including Iowa, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Colorado and Virginia.”

Tennessee? Yes, McCain will be in Blountville. Read more here.

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What’s Gonna Happen?

Mon/9:32am

Click here for a post I added featuring questions for an election night pool that I’m taking part in.

Feel free to register your predictions in the comments section!

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When Polls Close Tomorrow

Mon/8:43am

Courtesy of the Huffington Post

This all gets tossed out the window if lines are long.. which may be why we may not know results of the states on that map until well after the polls are supposed to close..

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Click here to view the embedded video.

Joe the Plumber Questions Obama’s Patriotism

Mon/8:42am

Above: Joe the Plumber on the Fox News Channel over the weekend.

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Click here to view the embedded video.

Palin “Punk’d”

Mon/8:38am

Above: two Canadian comedians fool Palin into thinking she’s talking to the President of France.

. Click here to view the embedded video.

That’s a New One

Mon/8:35am

Above: South Carolina Senator Lindsay Graham, saying the polls demonstrate Barack Obama is “the virtual incumbent,” & thus can’t win in this environment that’s hungry for change.

. Click here to view the embedded video.

New Anti-Biden Ad: “Lies & Sighs”

Mon/8:28am

This ad is effective, but made slightly less so by the misspelling on the screen, 0:56 seconds in:

. Click here to view the embedded video.

Pennsylvania Republicans Bring Up Wright in New Ad

Mon/8:20am

(Warning: blasphemous language)

Why is Pennsylvania such a battleground? Voters don’t vote early there.

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Obamacan Update

Mon/8:13am

Roger Cohen:

“Lifelong Republicans turning to Obama has been one of the themes I’ve picked up in this campaign, ever since, back in January, I ran into Bryant Jones, an Idaho-raised Republican who’d volunteered for Obama in South Carolina.For Jones, it was disenchantment with “my-way-or-the-highway politics and the same old faces.””

“My-way-or-the-highway” politics. That’s a major reason President Bush was such a failure (read more of my thoughts on that here, in yesterday’s post). & I hope that both Democrats and Republicans heed the lesson in this: no matter who is president - but particularly if a President Obama finds himself with a Democratic majority in Congress - we can’t afford to discount a person’s idea because they aren’t a member of the right party. Obama will fall, & fall hard if he tries this. This is the singular reason President Bush did such a bad job - all recent presidents from all recent parties recognized they’d never succeed by paying attention to the needs of just one constituency. UPDATE: Mon/10:23am: More Obamacans explain themselves here & here. .

Why a McCain Win Would Be a Good Thing for Liberals

Mon/8:09am

The conservative New York Times columnist (who bears quite a bit of responsibility for bringing Sarah Palin to the world, not to mention the Iraq war) writes liberals should think the world has ended if John McCain wins, for reasons including:

“It would be a victory for an underdog. Liberals are supposed to like underdogs. McCain is a lonely guy standing up against an unprecedentedly well-financed, superorganized, ExxonMobil-like Obama juggernaut. A McCain upset victory would be a classic liberal happy ending.”

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Why She’s Failed to Catch Fire

Mon/8:02am

Of course she’s caught fire among members of the Republican base. But she’s certainly not winning over independents or moderate Republicans (scroll down for a new poll for more on that).

Peter Beinart suggests it may be that her appearance came at the end of the ‘Culture War:”

“Why has America turned on Sarah Palin? Obviously, her wobbly television interviews haven’t helped. Nor have the drip, drip of scandals from Alaska, which have tarnished her reformist image. But Palin’s problems run deeper, and they say something fundamental about the political age being born. Palin’s brand is culture war, and in America today culture war no longer sells. The struggle that began in the 1960s — which put questions of racial, sexual and religious identity at the forefront of American politics — may be ending. Palin is the end of the line.” .

Strategic Strengths & Weaknesses

Mon/7:57am

Great summary of what went right for Obama & wrong for McCain from E.J. Dionne:

ON McCAIN:

“In state after state during the primaries, McCain drew heavily on the votes of independents, moderates and Republicans who were unhappy with Bush. But instead of carrying on as the un-Bush who defied conservative orthodoxy, McCain embraced the right for fear of losing it. He chose Sarah Palin as his running mate, which finally earned him cries of approval from the GOP base but sent moderate voters scurrying Obama’s way.”"

ON OBAMA:

“He saw an opening for a young African American senator with brief Washington experience, realizing that the very unlikeliness of his candidacy would enhance its attractiveness.

He did more than give Americans a chance to ease the burdens of race. He invited them to embrace his very newness and thereby move past the 1960s, the ’80s, the ’90s and the Bush era all at once. “It’s time to turn the page,” Obama would say, and there were many pages Americans wanted to turn.

His post-everything candidacy, wrapped in a powerful rhetoric of hope, was immensely attractive to the young. They became the happy warriors of campaign manager David Plouffe’s meticulously organized national machine. It worked its magic in neighborhoods never before blessed with even a precinct captain.”

Pretty much the race, in a nutshell.

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ABC Poll: He’s a Net Positive, She’s a Net Negative

Mon/7:53am

From the Washington Post:

Respondents’ reactions to Sarah Palin, the GOP vice presidential nominee, are also closely linked to how much they factor age into their preferences: Sixty percent of those who said age is an important consideration said Palin lowers the odds that they will vote for the GOP ticket. Overall, nearly half of all respondents said they are less likely to vote for McCain because she is on the ticket, a sharp increase from previous polls.

By contrast, Sen. Joseph R. Biden Jr. is a net positive for Obama, even as nearly six in 10 respondents said the senator from Delaware does not influence their views one way or the other.

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ABC Poll: McCain’s ‘Socialist’ Attacks Aren’t Sticking

Mon/7:50am

From the Washington Post:

The new Washington Post-ABC News tracking poll puts Obama well out in front over Republican John McCain and finds that Obama has firmly reestablished his advantage on handling the economy, beaten back a challenge on taxes and has an edge in terms of perceptions about which candidate would better deal with an unexpected major crisis.

The McCain campaign, meanwhile, has countered with improved outreach into the tossup states, neutralizing what had been a big advantage for the Democrat 10 days ago. More than a third of all voters in the six states The Post calls “up for grabs” — Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Montana, Missouri and Indiana — said they have heard from the McCain campaign in the past week. That is up sharply from the third week of October and on par with the number who have been contacted by Obama’s campaign.

Obama and McCain roughly split the vote in the six states combined — 51 percent back Obama, and 47 percent support McCain. Overall in the tracking poll, Obama holds an 11-point advantage, at the top end of the seven-to-11-point range he has held since the final presidential debate in mid-October.”

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Live from New York

Mon/7:39am:

Watch McCain’s funny Saturday Night Live appearance here. Check this Vote08 post to see a clip of an earlier SNL McCain appearance (he sings Streisand!).

UPDATE/Mon-10:09am

James Fallows says this SNL appearance shows that McCain has accepted defeat.

Post from: The Blog Formerly Known As Vote '08

Urging Conservatives to Eat Their Peas

All the way back on February 8th, long before he had the nomination wrapped up, I made a case to conservatives that John McCain was the only GOP candidate that had a shot at the White House this year.

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Fantasy BBQ

Click here for a photo montage of our daydream about attending a BBQ with all of this year’s presidential candidates.

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The Platters That Matter

Click here for a Vote08 post of Obama & McCain’s top 10 favorite songs, with accompanying videos for each.

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Whom Would Fonzie Vote For?

Click here for my musings on how not just the Fonz but the entire Happy Days cast would choose for president in 2008.

Post from: The Blog Formerly Known As Vote '08

“The Best Race I Ever Covered“

I think David Broder speaks for us all.

Essential reading from the dean of the Washington Press Corps here.

“It’s been so rich with precedent and incident — and so very, very long — that we have, if anything, undervalued and even lost sight of its significance at times. In these final hours there’s some sense in pausing, pulling back and taking the broad measure of a contest that’s sure to affect not only this country’s civic life but also its emotional and psychological landscape for some time to come.” - Frank Bruni, the NY Times

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Commentary: Why Was He Such a Failure?

[before reading any further: check out this post, in which historian Doris Kearnes Goodwin outlines what makes a great president 'great.']

As much as the right would like to avoid it, 2008 most certainly a referendum on the policies of George W. Bush. He has always had a core of support (& I strongly suspect those hardcore supporters also find themselves rooting hard for Sarah Palin right now), but has had the lowest & most drawn-out approval rating of any modern president.

Why?

President Bush failed as a president because of his inability to adapt to what the times required. & as Scott McClellan famously said in his tell-all earlier this year, his administration conducted business in a “permanent campaign” mode.

President Bush governed on a binary basis. Binary could mean assigning everything a “0″ or a “1″ .. or one could look at it like an on/off switch. The administration either catered to the “1s,” those who comprised the administration, or those who would keep that administration in power either in public opinion or the ballot box, & did the opposite to the “0s,” which at the start of his administration meant anyone who voted for Al Gore (almost 50% of the nation). This ‘binary’ policy applied to foreign policy (”you’re either with us or against us”) & domestic policy (”anyone who disagrees with us aren’t true patriots & want the United States to fail”).

No president before Bush ran the White House so full-throttle in this direction. & only in the last couple of years (roughly since the 2006 congressional elections which reputed this style of government) has George W. Bush begun to reverse this approach’s catastrophic effects.

Bill Clinton was forced to declare “the era of big government is over” after his party’s resounding defeat in the 1994 congressional elections.

George H.W. Bush was forced to renege on his “no new taxes” pledge when it was clear that there was no other option to keep the budget out of the red.

Ronald Reagan had to sit down & talk with Democratic congressional leaders to work out compromises on the budget, tax rates, & election reform.

President Nixon created the Environmental Protection Administration, among other departments that are now viewed by the right as ‘liberal causes.’

My point is that every President necessarily has to bend with the times. Compromises were made for the overall good of the country, even though it meant that any particular president’s ideological beliefs would take a hit.

Not so with President Bush. He was not a president who surrounded himself with people who challenged his assumptions enough. He often “went with his gut” in making decisions, rather than glean empirical data or alternate points of view.

Again, the President has recently turned back on this “black & white” view of the world, & things in many areas of the world have improved. Iraq. North Korea. Iran. We are now involved in negotiations with all three countries, which were earlier deemed ‘the axis of evil.’

We are starting to see a military policy that recognizes that those who practice Islam do not all feel the same way about things, an assumption as silly as assuming the same for all Christians.

This year, thankfully, we are turning the page on a dark chapter in the history of the American presidency. It’s as if Herbert Hoover were elected after the stock market crashed, or James Buchanan were president after the Civil War started.

Either men running for president now would have served us far better in the last 8 years.. John McCain especially. & that’s why part of the Shakespearean tragedy that is John McCain most poignant is the fact that McCain had a decent shot at the presidency back in 2000, right after he beat George W. Bush in the New Hampshire primary.

But what happened? Those who favored George W. Bush’s rise to power set in motion an ugly & destructive campaign in the state of South Carolina. McCain’s loss there effectively dashed his hopes for realizing his destiny as the 43rd presidency of the United States.

That in and of itself is tragic. But even more so is the fact that those very forces that kept McCain down 8 years ago joined his campaign late this summer, & have been running it ever since. Considering the personal integrity I have seen in this man for 8 years now, McCain truly struck up a deal with the devil. Everything that happened afterward - the Palin choice, the ‘lipstick on a pig’ distraction, the erraticness of McCain’s campaign of the week of the bailout bill, the branding of Obama as a ’socialist Marxist what-have-you’ - is from the playbook of those who have been in power for the past 8 years.

I suggest making your choice based on how you feel things have been run for the past 8 years. If you are leaning McCain, you have to take a leap of faith that he will upon election immediately eschew these forces at work & become a President who doesn’t put a party’s success over the country’s. & if you are leaning Obama, you have to take a leap of faith that the executive powers that were expanded by an order of magnitude in the last 8 years will not be continued under the leadership of a president from a different party.

No matter who your choice is, I believe that above all else, your vote should be based on which candidate - & as you can read above, an argument can be made for both - would run the nation in a manner that does not resemble the management style of George W. Bush.

That’s my opinion, & you’re free to disagree. Scroll down & leave a comment if you have anything to say. All viewpoints are welcome.

Gleeful & Glum

From the AP:

“That smiling guy walking down the street? Odds are he’s a Barack Obama backer. The grouchy looking one? Don’t ask, and don’t necessarily count on him to vote next week, either. Supporters of John McCain, long less enthusiastic than Obama’s, have become increasingly glum about the presidential campaign in recent weeks, according to an Associated Press-Yahoo News poll released Saturday.”

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Click here to view the embedded video.

Above: home-video from an Obama rally in Pueblo, Colorado yesterday.

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Click here to view the embedded video.

Above: McCain in Newport News, Virginia yesterday.

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Click here to view the embedded video.

Above: home-video of Biden at BGCU yesterday.

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Click here to view the embedded video.

Above: home-video from a Palin rally in Glenn Allen, Virginia yesterday.

Post from: The Blog Formerly Known As Vote '08