Click here to view the embedded video.

His acceptance speech at the Democratic National Convention in Denver.

LOW WATER MARK (3-WAY TIE)

Click here to view the embedded video.

Click here to view the embedded video.

Click here to view the embedded video.

Post from: The Blog Formerly Known As Vote '08

Above: on This Week with George Stephanopoulos, today.

Post from: The Blog Formerly Known As Vote '08

Above: the Cheneys welcome the Bidens to their new home.

Oh, to be a fly on the wall when the cameras turned off.

Post from: The Blog Formerly Known As Vote '08

With 1 Day to Go, a Family Tragedy

CHARLOTTE, N.C. (AP) - Barack Obama says that his grandmother has died.
The Democratic presidential candidate announced the news in a joint statement with his sister Maya Soetoro-Ng. He said his grandmother, Madelyn Dunham, had died peacefully after a battle with cancer.
He said: “She was the cornerstone of our family, and a woman of extraordinary accomplishment, strength, and humility. She was the person who encouraged and allowed us to take chances.”
The candidate learned of her death Monday morning while he was campaigning in Jacksonville, Fla. He planned to go ahead with campaign appearances.
Late last month, Obama took a break from campaigning and flew to Hawaii to be with the 86-year-old Dunham, who helped raise him.

Read Obama’s family’s statement here.

Yes, she did already vote absentee for her grandson.

Read more on Obama’s grandmother in this Vote08 post.

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Election Day Forecast

The Storm Track 9 weather team tells me that the only weather events that might possibly effect voters is some rain that’ll hit eastern NC & eastern VA.

I’m told the rain will be light.. with a year that’s seen turnout busting all records, I hazard a guess that weather won’t play into the final outcome.

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Above: Obama in Columbus, Ohio today.

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Above: Biden in Lee’s Summit, Missouri today

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Above: McCain in Moon Township, PA (I’m still looking for his Blountville, TN appearance on the YouTubes)

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Above: Sarah Palin in Jefferson City, Missouri

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Post from: The Blog Formerly Known As Vote '08

What’s going on?

In this post, which will remain up until Tuesday night, I’m pulling back the curtain & showing you exactly what news about campaign 2008 I am checking throughout the day.

The most recent entry will be at the top; to start from the beginning, scroll to the bottom.

& I want to hear what you think! Click here to post a comment.

Calvin Can’t Stop Talking about McCain’s Tennessee Stop

Amazing on a day when his beloved Tennessee Vols are in the news.. Calvin says he’s got a better idea for McCain’s strategy in winning NC & VA than stopping in Blountville:

A campaign stop in the Tri-Cities was bad strategy for McCain, trying to woo SW Virginia and Western NC voters.. True, two of the three TV stations with strong VHF signals (WCYB-TV, Channel 5 and WJHL-TV, Channel 11), do indeed blanket all of SW Virginia and part of Western North Carolina.

But SW Virginia voters work and shop in Tri-Cities, Tennessee. As a result, they are usually politically aligned with their neighbors in Upper East Tennessee.. SW Virginia voters are mostly Republican, voting the same way upper East Tennessee has voted for generations, and this includes absentee voting, early voting, and Election Day-of voting.

A Republican visit by a presidential candidate and covered heavily on Tri-Cities TV, only reinforces the way SW Virginia voters are going to vote anyway.

AND, Tri-Cities stations only get marginally viewership from Western North Carolina counties, and even then, mostly along the TN-NC border, because the mountains cut the signals off.

A much better media consideration for McCain would have been, a stop in Asheville, North Carolina, and then one in Roanoke, Virginia.. The 3 main reasons being:

1) Only two years ago, Western North Carolina elected Democrat Heath Shuler to Congress, and Tri-Cities station signals simply don’t reach that far down into that state. 2) The Roanoke TV market. A McCain visit in Roanoke would have had more of an impact on Central Virginia voters that all watch WSLS-TV, WDBJ-TV and WSET-TV from Roanoke-Lynchburg, and would have given McCain double-coverage, because Tri-Cities TV stations, mindful of their SW Virginia audience, would cover it extensively for their SW Virginia viewers anyway.

3) WLOS-TV, Asheville. With a transmitter signal coming from atop one of the highest points in the Eastern United States, and blanketing ALL of Western North Carolina, a McCain visit would have saturated the western third of the state, including that Democratic pocket that elected Heath Shuler, and also have been covered extensively by the rest of the North Carolina media.

Thanks, Calvin! .

Election Day Times

Mon/2:07pm

Click here for a full rundown of election times in Tennessee, Georgia, Alabama & North Carolina.

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Mor McCane Mispellingz

Mon/1:49pm

Think Progress has discovered three instances of misspelled words in McCain’s ads that have aired in the last month.

Come on, guys! Do you really have to get them out that fast?

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The Dog That Didn’t Bark

Mon/1:23pm

The Politico’s Jonathan Martin speculates what the 2008 campaign would look like if McCain & surrogates used Rev. Wright as an issue more:

“Conversations with a number of veteran GOP consultants indicate that using Wright may have helped McCain with one set of voters — but would have hurt with others and not ultimately proved decisive in a contest subsumed by larger external forces such as the economic crisis and the unpopularity of President Bush and the Republican Party.”

McCain deserves credit for not ‘going there.’

As Liddy Dole is about to find out, attacking someone’s faith only ends up hurting the attacker in the end.

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Why’s He in Tennessee Today?

Mon/1:18pm

He’s stopping in Blountville - you can be assured I’ll be looking for clips to post later today.

But why Blountville? He’s got the Volunteer State wrapped up.

Marc Ambinder says:

So why is Sen. McCain campaigning in Blountville, TN?

It has nothing to do with Blountville.

It has everything to do with the parts of rural North Carolina and rural Virginia that share its media market.

NewsChannel9 anchor & expert in all things ‘upper-east Tennessee’ Calvin Sneed says:

“I already knew that.. One-third of the audience that WCYB-TV and WJHL-TV reach are in Southwest Virginia up to Roanoake, and Western North Carolina, within a 70 mile circumference of Asheville. Too bad Kentucky is not a swing state. Those two stations also blanket Eastern-Southeastern Kentucky. I also knew two weeks ago, he’d be coming to Tri-Cities before the end of the campaign.”

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Good Gravy!

Mon/1:12PM

As if Georgia’s not enough (scroll down), check out North Carolina’s polls, which have tightened as of today.

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Mapping a McCain Win

Mon/11:48am

Nate Silver looks at several computer models. His top projection is above.

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If You’re Reading This, You’re Part of the Revolution

Mon/10:47am

Look at these numbers from Pew, which shows internet usage has TRIPLED this year, while TV & newspaper usage remains static.

Truly amazing.

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“My Wife Made Me Canvass for Obama”

Mon/10:40am

Read what a former Bush voter in North Carolina found out about voters while canvassing with his wife.

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The Five States to Watch on Election Night

Mon/10:34am

Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight.com (one of the true internet stars of Campaign 2008) says the states to keep an eye on will be:

1. Virginia

2. Colorado

3. Pennsylvania

4. Ohio

5. Nevada

Read why here.

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Does Obama Realistically Have a Shot at Arizona?

Mon/10:30 am

Marc Ambinder speculates & has some things to watch in the Grand Canyon State tomorrow night.

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Not All TN Polling Times Are the Same

Mon/10:16am

The election director in Polk County, TN just e-mailed NewsChannel9:

Please have Channel 9 broadcast Polk, Meigs, and McMinn County Polling Hours on Tuesday, November 4, 2008, to BEGIN AT 9:00 A.M. AND CLOSE AT 8:00 P.M. Your viewers hear Hamilton County hours and assume ours is the same. Your help will be greatly appreciated.

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“Phone Gap” in the Polls?

Mon/10:12am

“The cellphone polls have Obama ahead by an average of 9.4 points; the landline-only polls, 5.1 points.”

- Nate Silver, FiveThirtyEight.com

. Click here to view the embedded video.

Obama in Cincinnati

Mon/10:03am

Above: Obama in Cincinnati yesterday.

I’m keeping an eye out for clips of the candidates today, so check back later.

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Click here to view the embedded video.

McCain in Florida

Mon/10:01am

Above: a midnight rally in Miami, last night.

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Where the Race Stands

Mon/9:54am

Above: NBC’s Chuck Todd maps out McCain’s path to victory.

From Chuck & others at MSNBC’s First Read blog:

*** Obama has a clear lead: With just a day left until Election Day, Obama holds an eight-point lead over McCain among likely voters, 51%-43%, according to the final national NBC/WSJ poll before the election. That’s down slightly from Obama’s 53%-to-42% advantage from almost two weeks ago. Still, to put his current lead into perspective, the last NBC/WSJ survey before the 2004 presidential election showed Bush with a slim one-point edge over Kerry, 48%-47%. Bush went on to win that election, 51%-48%. Looking inside the crosstabs, Obama’s advantage is largely based on his overwhelming success with African Americans (winning them 90%-3%), Latinos (68%-27%), and 18 to 34 year olds (59%-38%). It’s about as solid of a three-legged support stool as any candidate could ask for. Obama also wins independents (48%-38%), blue-collar voters (51%-44%), suburban voters (49%-44%), and Catholics (49%-46%). McCain, meanwhile, has the advantage among evangelicals (78%-19%), those 65 and older (53%-40%), white men (54%-42%), and white women (48%-47%). One more thing: 30% say they’ve already voted, and those voters break by an identical 51%-43% margin. One thing that might keep the McCain folks somewhat hopeful about our numbers: We have Democrats with a +10 advantage on party ID; McCain’s team believes the electorate won’t produce that margin tomorrow.

*** Liking McCain but loving Obama: The poll also shows that McCain and Obama are pretty well liked by voters. McCain has a 47%-39% fav/unfav rating, while Obama’s is larger at 56%-35%. But what’s striking is the intensity gap — almost twice as many respondents (44%) rate Obama “very positive” than they do for McCain (24%). In short, McCain’s supporters like him, but Obama’s LOVE him. Think about that 44% number for a minute: Obama’s overall ballot number is 51%, meaning that 86% of Obama’s supporters have a VERY positive view of him. Not since Reagan in 1980 has a base of supporters loved its nominee so much. Also, for the second-straight NBC/WSJ poll, Palin has a net-negative fav/unfav (39%-48%), while Biden has a net-positive one (50%-30%). In fact, if you add up Obama’s and Biden’s favorable scores, you get 106; for McCain-Palin, it’s 86.

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Good Grief!

Mon/9:45am

Georgia has become THE state to watch.

Just look at those polls!

It’s quite possible (& I chose it as such in the pool) that it could be the state with the closest margin of victory for either candidate.

The Senate race, I believe, is still Saxby Chambliss’ to lose.. but that prediction gets upended, I think, with an Obama upset.

What do you think?

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Where They’re Headed in the Final Stretch

Mon/9:39am

From the AP: “UNDATED (AP) - As if today’s fever-pitch campaigning weren’t enough, the presidential candidates will break tradition and stump on Election Day. John McCain goes to Colorado and New Mexico. Barack Obama swings through Indiana before returning to Chicago. McCain rallied Latino voters just after midnight in Miami. Later this morning, he takes his message to Tampa, then to Tennessee, where he’ll be able to hit the Virginia media market. Pennsylvania, Indiana, New Mexico, Nevada and Arizona also will see McCain. Running mate Sarah Palin is trying to woo conservatives in Ohio, Missouri, Iowa, Colorado and Nevada. Obama’s route is geographically less demanding. He rallies this morning in Jacksonville, Fla., and later goes to Virginia and North Carolina. His running mate, Joe Biden, is going to Missouri, Ohio and Pennsylvania. Polls show the six closest states are Florida, Indiana, Missouri, North Carolina, Nevada and Ohio. The campaigns also are running aggressive ground games elsewhere, including Iowa, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Colorado and Virginia.”

Tennessee? Yes, McCain will be in Blountville. Read more here.

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What’s Gonna Happen?

Mon/9:32am

Click here for a post I added featuring questions for an election night pool that I’m taking part in.

Feel free to register your predictions in the comments section!

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When Polls Close Tomorrow

Mon/8:43am

Courtesy of the Huffington Post

This all gets tossed out the window if lines are long.. which may be why we may not know results of the states on that map until well after the polls are supposed to close..

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Click here to view the embedded video.

Joe the Plumber Questions Obama’s Patriotism

Mon/8:42am

Above: Joe the Plumber on the Fox News Channel over the weekend.

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Click here to view the embedded video.

Palin “Punk’d”

Mon/8:38am

Above: two Canadian comedians fool Palin into thinking she’s talking to the President of France.

. Click here to view the embedded video.

That’s a New One

Mon/8:35am

Above: South Carolina Senator Lindsay Graham, saying the polls demonstrate Barack Obama is “the virtual incumbent,” & thus can’t win in this environment that’s hungry for change.

. Click here to view the embedded video.

New Anti-Biden Ad: “Lies & Sighs”

Mon/8:28am

This ad is effective, but made slightly less so by the misspelling on the screen, 0:56 seconds in:

. Click here to view the embedded video.

Pennsylvania Republicans Bring Up Wright in New Ad

Mon/8:20am

(Warning: blasphemous language)

Why is Pennsylvania such a battleground? Voters don’t vote early there.

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Obamacan Update

Mon/8:13am

Roger Cohen:

“Lifelong Republicans turning to Obama has been one of the themes I’ve picked up in this campaign, ever since, back in January, I ran into Bryant Jones, an Idaho-raised Republican who’d volunteered for Obama in South Carolina.For Jones, it was disenchantment with “my-way-or-the-highway politics and the same old faces.””

“My-way-or-the-highway” politics. That’s a major reason President Bush was such a failure (read more of my thoughts on that here, in yesterday’s post). & I hope that both Democrats and Republicans heed the lesson in this: no matter who is president - but particularly if a President Obama finds himself with a Democratic majority in Congress - we can’t afford to discount a person’s idea because they aren’t a member of the right party. Obama will fall, & fall hard if he tries this. This is the singular reason President Bush did such a bad job - all recent presidents from all recent parties recognized they’d never succeed by paying attention to the needs of just one constituency. UPDATE: Mon/10:23am: More Obamacans explain themselves here & here. .

Why a McCain Win Would Be a Good Thing for Liberals

Mon/8:09am

The conservative New York Times columnist (who bears quite a bit of responsibility for bringing Sarah Palin to the world, not to mention the Iraq war) writes liberals should think the world has ended if John McCain wins, for reasons including:

“It would be a victory for an underdog. Liberals are supposed to like underdogs. McCain is a lonely guy standing up against an unprecedentedly well-financed, superorganized, ExxonMobil-like Obama juggernaut. A McCain upset victory would be a classic liberal happy ending.”

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Why She’s Failed to Catch Fire

Mon/8:02am

Of course she’s caught fire among members of the Republican base. But she’s certainly not winning over independents or moderate Republicans (scroll down for a new poll for more on that).

Peter Beinart suggests it may be that her appearance came at the end of the ‘Culture War:”

“Why has America turned on Sarah Palin? Obviously, her wobbly television interviews haven’t helped. Nor have the drip, drip of scandals from Alaska, which have tarnished her reformist image. But Palin’s problems run deeper, and they say something fundamental about the political age being born. Palin’s brand is culture war, and in America today culture war no longer sells. The struggle that began in the 1960s — which put questions of racial, sexual and religious identity at the forefront of American politics — may be ending. Palin is the end of the line.” .

Strategic Strengths & Weaknesses

Mon/7:57am

Great summary of what went right for Obama & wrong for McCain from E.J. Dionne:

ON McCAIN:

“In state after state during the primaries, McCain drew heavily on the votes of independents, moderates and Republicans who were unhappy with Bush. But instead of carrying on as the un-Bush who defied conservative orthodoxy, McCain embraced the right for fear of losing it. He chose Sarah Palin as his running mate, which finally earned him cries of approval from the GOP base but sent moderate voters scurrying Obama’s way.”"

ON OBAMA:

“He saw an opening for a young African American senator with brief Washington experience, realizing that the very unlikeliness of his candidacy would enhance its attractiveness.

He did more than give Americans a chance to ease the burdens of race. He invited them to embrace his very newness and thereby move past the 1960s, the ’80s, the ’90s and the Bush era all at once. “It’s time to turn the page,” Obama would say, and there were many pages Americans wanted to turn.

His post-everything candidacy, wrapped in a powerful rhetoric of hope, was immensely attractive to the young. They became the happy warriors of campaign manager David Plouffe’s meticulously organized national machine. It worked its magic in neighborhoods never before blessed with even a precinct captain.”

Pretty much the race, in a nutshell.

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ABC Poll: He’s a Net Positive, She’s a Net Negative

Mon/7:53am

From the Washington Post:

Respondents’ reactions to Sarah Palin, the GOP vice presidential nominee, are also closely linked to how much they factor age into their preferences: Sixty percent of those who said age is an important consideration said Palin lowers the odds that they will vote for the GOP ticket. Overall, nearly half of all respondents said they are less likely to vote for McCain because she is on the ticket, a sharp increase from previous polls.

By contrast, Sen. Joseph R. Biden Jr. is a net positive for Obama, even as nearly six in 10 respondents said the senator from Delaware does not influence their views one way or the other.

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ABC Poll: McCain’s ‘Socialist’ Attacks Aren’t Sticking

Mon/7:50am

From the Washington Post:

The new Washington Post-ABC News tracking poll puts Obama well out in front over Republican John McCain and finds that Obama has firmly reestablished his advantage on handling the economy, beaten back a challenge on taxes and has an edge in terms of perceptions about which candidate would better deal with an unexpected major crisis.

The McCain campaign, meanwhile, has countered with improved outreach into the tossup states, neutralizing what had been a big advantage for the Democrat 10 days ago. More than a third of all voters in the six states The Post calls “up for grabs” — Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Montana, Missouri and Indiana — said they have heard from the McCain campaign in the past week. That is up sharply from the third week of October and on par with the number who have been contacted by Obama’s campaign.

Obama and McCain roughly split the vote in the six states combined — 51 percent back Obama, and 47 percent support McCain. Overall in the tracking poll, Obama holds an 11-point advantage, at the top end of the seven-to-11-point range he has held since the final presidential debate in mid-October.”

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Live from New York

Mon/7:39am:

Watch McCain’s funny Saturday Night Live appearance here. Check this Vote08 post to see a clip of an earlier SNL McCain appearance (he sings Streisand!).

UPDATE/Mon-10:09am

James Fallows says this SNL appearance shows that McCain has accepted defeat.

Post from: The Blog Formerly Known As Vote '08

“The Best Race I Ever Covered“

I think David Broder speaks for us all.

Essential reading from the dean of the Washington Press Corps here.

“It’s been so rich with precedent and incident — and so very, very long — that we have, if anything, undervalued and even lost sight of its significance at times. In these final hours there’s some sense in pausing, pulling back and taking the broad measure of a contest that’s sure to affect not only this country’s civic life but also its emotional and psychological landscape for some time to come.” - Frank Bruni, the NY Times

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Commentary: Why Was He Such a Failure?

[before reading any further: check out this post, in which historian Doris Kearnes Goodwin outlines what makes a great president 'great.']

As much as the right would like to avoid it, 2008 most certainly a referendum on the policies of George W. Bush. He has always had a core of support (& I strongly suspect those hardcore supporters also find themselves rooting hard for Sarah Palin right now), but has had the lowest & most drawn-out approval rating of any modern president.

Why?

President Bush failed as a president because of his inability to adapt to what the times required. & as Scott McClellan famously said in his tell-all earlier this year, his administration conducted business in a “permanent campaign” mode.

President Bush governed on a binary basis. Binary could mean assigning everything a “0″ or a “1″ .. or one could look at it like an on/off switch. The administration either catered to the “1s,” those who comprised the administration, or those who would keep that administration in power either in public opinion or the ballot box, & did the opposite to the “0s,” which at the start of his administration meant anyone who voted for Al Gore (almost 50% of the nation). This ‘binary’ policy applied to foreign policy (”you’re either with us or against us”) & domestic policy (”anyone who disagrees with us aren’t true patriots & want the United States to fail”).

No president before Bush ran the White House so full-throttle in this direction. & only in the last couple of years (roughly since the 2006 congressional elections which reputed this style of government) has George W. Bush begun to reverse this approach’s catastrophic effects.

Bill Clinton was forced to declare “the era of big government is over” after his party’s resounding defeat in the 1994 congressional elections.

George H.W. Bush was forced to renege on his “no new taxes” pledge when it was clear that there was no other option to keep the budget out of the red.

Ronald Reagan had to sit down & talk with Democratic congressional leaders to work out compromises on the budget, tax rates, & election reform.

President Nixon created the Environmental Protection Administration, among other departments that are now viewed by the right as ‘liberal causes.’

My point is that every President necessarily has to bend with the times. Compromises were made for the overall good of the country, even though it meant that any particular president’s ideological beliefs would take a hit.

Not so with President Bush. He was not a president who surrounded himself with people who challenged his assumptions enough. He often “went with his gut” in making decisions, rather than glean empirical data or alternate points of view.

Again, the President has recently turned back on this “black & white” view of the world, & things in many areas of the world have improved. Iraq. North Korea. Iran. We are now involved in negotiations with all three countries, which were earlier deemed ‘the axis of evil.’

We are starting to see a military policy that recognizes that those who practice Islam do not all feel the same way about things, an assumption as silly as assuming the same for all Christians.

This year, thankfully, we are turning the page on a dark chapter in the history of the American presidency. It’s as if Herbert Hoover were elected after the stock market crashed, or James Buchanan were president after the Civil War started.

Either men running for president now would have served us far better in the last 8 years.. John McCain especially. & that’s why part of the Shakespearean tragedy that is John McCain most poignant is the fact that McCain had a decent shot at the presidency back in 2000, right after he beat George W. Bush in the New Hampshire primary.

But what happened? Those who favored George W. Bush’s rise to power set in motion an ugly & destructive campaign in the state of South Carolina. McCain’s loss there effectively dashed his hopes for realizing his destiny as the 43rd presidency of the United States.

That in and of itself is tragic. But even more so is the fact that those very forces that kept McCain down 8 years ago joined his campaign late this summer, & have been running it ever since. Considering the personal integrity I have seen in this man for 8 years now, McCain truly struck up a deal with the devil. Everything that happened afterward - the Palin choice, the ‘lipstick on a pig’ distraction, the erraticness of McCain’s campaign of the week of the bailout bill, the branding of Obama as a ’socialist Marxist what-have-you’ - is from the playbook of those who have been in power for the past 8 years.

I suggest making your choice based on how you feel things have been run for the past 8 years. If you are leaning McCain, you have to take a leap of faith that he will upon election immediately eschew these forces at work & become a President who doesn’t put a party’s success over the country’s. & if you are leaning Obama, you have to take a leap of faith that the executive powers that were expanded by an order of magnitude in the last 8 years will not be continued under the leadership of a president from a different party.

No matter who your choice is, I believe that above all else, your vote should be based on which candidate - & as you can read above, an argument can be made for both - would run the nation in a manner that does not resemble the management style of George W. Bush.

That’s my opinion, & you’re free to disagree. Scroll down & leave a comment if you have anything to say. All viewpoints are welcome.

Gleeful & Glum

From the AP:

“That smiling guy walking down the street? Odds are he’s a Barack Obama backer. The grouchy looking one? Don’t ask, and don’t necessarily count on him to vote next week, either. Supporters of John McCain, long less enthusiastic than Obama’s, have become increasingly glum about the presidential campaign in recent weeks, according to an Associated Press-Yahoo News poll released Saturday.”

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Click here to view the embedded video.

Above: home-video from an Obama rally in Pueblo, Colorado yesterday.

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Click here to view the embedded video.

Above: McCain in Newport News, Virginia yesterday.

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Click here to view the embedded video.

Above: home-video of Biden at BGCU yesterday.

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Click here to view the embedded video.

Above: home-video from a Palin rally in Glenn Allen, Virginia yesterday.

Post from: The Blog Formerly Known As Vote '08

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Click here to view the embedded video.

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***Reminder: You Have Until 5pm Today to Vote Early in North Carolina***

Early voting’s been extended, too; read more about it here.

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Obama in Nevada

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McCain & Ah-nold

Above: Columbus, Ohio, last night.

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Palin in Pennsylvania

Above: a home-video from Latrobe, last night.

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Biden Home-State Stumping

Above: Joe Biden in Delaware, at his alma-mater

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Chutes & Ladders in the Senate

The Tennessee Senate race (between Alexander & Tuke) has nowhere near the excitement as Georgia’s or North Carolina’s on Tuesday night.

But you should pay close attention to the degree of GOP losses in the Senate.

The more losses there are, the more freshman Tennessee Senator Bob Corker has to gain on the Senate hierarchical ladder. He has the potential to climb a few ‘bonus’ rungs if experienced GOPers like Alaska’s Ted Stevens or NC’s Elizabeth Dole or KY’s Mitch McConnell find defeat.

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Unintentionally Transparent?

Senator Saxby Chambliss, (R) Georgia, yesterday:

“There has always been a rush to the polls by African-Americans early,” he said at the square in Covington, a quick stop on a bus tour as the campaign entered its final week. He predicted the crowds of early voters would motivate Republicans to turn out. “It has also got our side energized, they see what is happening,” he said.

Careful with that “our side,” Senator.

Check the latest polls in the GA Senate race here.

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How He’ll Win, by McCain’s Chief Strategist

Read Rick Davis’ memo here, with Marc Ambinder’s observations in italics.

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McCain’s Horrible Month

Charles Blow recaps.

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Any Surprises Left?

Several pollsters weigh in here.

Keep in mind the impact of any “late surprise” is diminished by early voting.

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A McCain Endorsement the Obama People Were Happy to Disseminate

Above: Dick Cheney stumps for McCain in Wyoming.

Post from: The Blog Formerly Known As Vote '08

Watch the 1st Presidential Debate here.

Watch the Vice-Presidential Debate here. Who won? Click here.

Watch the 2nd Presidential Debate here. Who won? Click here.

Watch the 3rd Presidential Debate here. Who won? Click here.

(image by Matt Brunson)

Post from: The Blog Formerly Known As Vote '08

(left: image by Matt Brunson. Click on the picture to read our post explaining how they’re the Fantastic Four)

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***REMINDER: Today is the last day to vote early in Georgia***

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“Yes We Carve“

By the way, there’s a whole website dedicated to Obama-themed Pumpkins. Click here.

How to carve a McCain pumpkin: click here.

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Hamilton County Donor Update

NewsChannel9’s Kim Fields found this info online:

McCain:

# of Contributors: 493
Amount Donated: $265,972.00

Average contribution: $539.50

Obama:

# of Contributors: 1189
Amounted Donated: $233,556.00

Average contribution: $196.43
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McCain’s Closing Ad: ‘Freedom’

Click here to view the embedded video.

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Obama in Iowa

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“Or???“

Above: McCain with GMA’s Robin Roberts. What do you think he means?

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Gore Stumps in His ‘Waterloo’ State

Above: Al Gore in West Palm Beach, Florida today.

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An Unforced Error

From the LA Times:

“On Thursday at a rally in Erie, Pa., Sarah Palin touted the victors in the World Series to thousands of supporters. “I am thrilled to be here in the home state of the world-champion Philadelphia Phillies,” Palin said.

The crowd booed.

Philadelphia is a seven-hour drive from Erie, which is in the state’s far west. Erie’s baseball devotions are split between the Pittsburgh Pirates and the Cleveland Indians. (Pittsburgh and Cleveland are about two hours away.)”

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Hunkering Down

E-mail from a relative who’s an ardent Rush Limbaugh lover, Obama-fearer, & McCain-Palin voter (in that order)***:

“This weekend you should stock up on batteries, canned goods, matches, fill your car with gas, dried beans, corn, etc, jerky, and fill up available containers with potable water. If you have water purification equipment keep it handy. If you have white gas lanterns, stoves, etc, make sure they are in good operation and that you have plenty of fuel by this Tuesday. Having lived through the MLK and the Bobby K. killings, I know it pays to be prepared.”

***CLARIFICATION: said relative says “You got the order wrong. It’s #1) Palin, #2) Limbaugh, #3,497) (tie) McCain and O’Bama-both liberals (but McCain is a couple of points ahead because he would not appoint Hillary to the Supreme Court.)”

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Dole Doubles Down

The North Carolina incumbent senator airs yet another ad attacking her rival, Kay Hagan.

Thanks to NewsChannel9’s Kim Fields for the tip.

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(Not) Covering the Biggest Rumors of Campaign 2008

Politico pulls back the curtain to reveal the biggest rumor tips from viewers that they chose not to cover. Personally, at NewsChannel9 the most common one -by far- we got from callers/e-mailers/Vote08 commenters was the ‘Obama citizenship’ story, about which Politico says:

“So why isn’t this getting wide coverage? Well, first, there’s lots of evidence that Obama was born in the United States, and none that he wasn’t. The campaign handed over an official copy of his short-form birth certificate — the standard document produced by the Hawaii Department of Health — to Factcheck.org. And Poliltico has confirmed the authenticity of a contemporaneous announcement of his birth in the Honolulu Advertiser.”

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Two New Obama Ads

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Palin on Good Morning America

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Why Black People Shouldn’t Vote for Obama

An independent ad above says Because Martin Luther King said so.

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Obama: “Game Back On” in GA

ATLANTA (AP) - Democrat Barack Obama is putting television ads back up on the air in Georgia.
Obama campaign manager David Plouffe said Friday “early vote is going extremely well in Georgia.”
In September, the Obama camp took down its ads and moved some paid staff out of Georgia suggesting it was retreating from its pledge to compete in the reliably Republican state.
But new polls have suggested Obama is close to GOP candidate John McCain in the state. And blacks have turned out in disproportionately high numbers for early voting.
Plouffe said the state is winnable, although any victory would be a narrow one.

Check the latest Georgia poll average here.

I’d have to say out of all the states, that one is by far the most interesting.

Obama’s also now buying ad time in North Dakota (!) & Arizona (!!). Read more here.

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New Endorsement for McCain: From Obama

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NC Senate Race: Hagan Responds to Dole’s ‘Godless’ Ad

Watch the Dole ad in this Vote08 post.

North Carolina newspapers weigh in:

“..worse than dishonest.” - the Greensboro News Record

“..one of the more egregious examples of negative campaigning.” - the Asheville Citizen-Times

“It has no place in N.C. politics.” - the Charlotte Observer

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The Center-Right Candidate for a Center-Right Country

Despite McCain’s admission he “doesn’t know much about economics,” Charles Krauthammer argues (somewhat bitterly, it seems) that McCain’s economic plans would be more appropriate given the overall politics of the nation.

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Still Undecided?

An AP Poll finds 1 in 7 - 14% - of voters remain undecided, with just 4 days to go:

“Who are they? They look a lot like the voters who’ve already locked onto a candidate, though they’re more likely to be white and less likely to be liberal. And they disproportionately backed Hillary Rodham Clinton’s failed run for the Democratic nomination.”

Kathleen Parker has an exercise designed to help you make your choice.

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Yesterday’s ‘Last Day’ to Early Vote in TN

Above: watch our report at 5:30 on what’s on voters’ minds.

Final tally: 67,515 people in Hamilton County voted early. By my calculation (PDF file), that’s 49% of ALL voters for president from Hamilton County in 2004.

Also, early voting in Hamilton County increased by 154% from 2004.

That. Is. Amazing.

Hamilton County Clerk Bill Knowles faxed NewsChannel 9 on Friday to say that he’s placing a police officer on site at the election commission next Tuesday to “safeguard the equipment & ballots.”

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She’s Here to Stay

I agree with Eugene Robinson today, who acknowledges Sarah Palin will be a national figure even if her ticket (sorry, make that McCain’s ticket) doesn’t win next Tuesday. Her star is nothing but rising. Those who discount her as a “lightweight” or “bubble-headed” do so at their own peril.

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Happy Halloween from Vote08!

[& for those of you who don't honor the holiday - Happy Reformation Day!]

Post from: The Blog Formerly Known As Vote '08

Just 5 Days to Go!

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***Reminder: TODAY’s your LAST DAY to vote early in Tennessee & FRIDAY is your LAST DAY to vote early in Georgia!***

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Straddling the Eras of Slavery & Black Presidential Candidates

Above: 109 year old Texas resident Amanda Jones, daughter of a slave, who just cast her vote for Barack Obama for President.

Regardless of whom you hope will win the White House, this truly is an amazing achievement for our country.

Obama in the Sunshine State

[scroll down to see Biden, McCain & Palin]

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Are Late-Undecided Voters McCain’s ‘Lifeboat?’

Dick Morris thinks the answer is yes.

Nate Silver thinks the answer is no.

This article takes a look at last-week undecided trends from past elections.

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Palin Stumps in Rush’s Hometown

..that would be Cape Girardeau, Missouri. Scroll down to see McCain in Ohio.

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Biden, Like Palin, in the Show-Me State

[Scroll down to see Sarah Palin & John McCain.]

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Can He Keep His Mouth Shut Until Tuesday?

The Politico weighs the pros & cons of Biden’s contributions to the campaign trail.

Also: the Obama campaign tries to clarify Biden’s “mark my words” comment in a new ad:

Click here to view the embedded video.

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Racism Knows No Party

Read examples of racism from the left this election season here.

But whatever you do, don’t pigeonhole rednecks:

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TR’s a Socialist!!!

Read a letter to the New York Times from 1908 that brands McCain’s favorite president with his current favorite perjorative for his opponent.

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Pro-McCain Robocalls Now Hitting Homes in…Arizona

Read more about it here.

Is McCain really in that much trouble in his home state? Check the average of polls here. The Obama camp claims their internal polls are tightening.

Personally, I don’t think he’s going to lose his home state. But it may be the ultimate margin of victory that McCain’s trying to manipulate.

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McCain Ad: He’s Not Ready…Yet

What’s with the “yet” in this ad? Bob Cesca has a theory.

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Is Palin Looking Down the Road to 2012?

It would appear so, based on the clip above. A loss will have the conventional wisdom coronating her as the 2012 front-runner. However, there may be a few in the GOP who have been holding their tongues until after the ballots have been cast.

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Pizza Politics

From Domino’s Pizza, via Marc Ambinder. I sent this out to the newsroom & got a funny response from operations engineer John Creel, whose text below is in red:

Republicans

— Spend more per order than other consumers.

(*WITH THE OIL MONEY PROFITS WE CAN SPEND MORE.)

— They rely on credit cards to pay more than other consumers.

(*DOESN’T EVERYBODY’S HAVE A AMERICAN EXPRESS GOLD CARD.)

– They tend to order two large pizzas at a time, and they’re usually
specialty pizzas.

(*EVERYTHING WORTH HAVING COMES IN 2′S. WE ALL GOTTA PAIR DON’T WE.)
– They are more likely to order online, and more likely to pick up their
orders.

(*LIMOS ARE GREAT FOR PICKING UP PIZZAS, ESPECIALLY WHEN LOBBYIST ARE
BUYING.)

Democrats

— Rely on delivery more than Republicans.

(*DELIVERY BOY IS A JUST A GUY TRYING TO MAKE A BUCK. WE’RE SPREADING THE WEALTH WITH HIM.)

– Pay cash more than other consumers.

(*CREDIT CARDS LEAVE A PAPER TRAIL TO FOLLOW. WE DON’T LIKE ANYTHING TRACEABLE BACK TO US.)

– Like more variety with their orders, opting for side items, chicken and
beverages more than Republicans.

(*WE LIKE OUR PIZZA LIKE OUR POLITICS … LOTS OF VARIETY.)

(*REPUBLICANS CALL THE SIDE ITEMS PORK, BUT WE PUT THEM ON OUR
CONGRESSIONAL BILLS AND VOTERS LOVE THEM.)

Funny stuff, John! Thanks!

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‘Joe’ a No-Show

Oops. Maybe he was recording his album?

More from McCain’ speech in Defiance, Ohio:

Click here to view the embedded video.

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North Carolina Senate Race Gets Ugly

The ad above may be remembered as one of the worst in the country for the year 2008. It’s also a sign of how much trouble Elizabeth Dole finds herself in. The worst part about the ad is the woman saying “there is no God” at the end which is NOT Kay Hagan, Dole’s opponent. No politician who has integrity - on either side of the aisle - would do something like that.

…but how much of the ad is true? Click here for a fact-check.

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Georgia Senate Race Called a ”Tossup”

Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight.com speculates on the spellbinding Georgia Senate race:

“Very quick observation about Georgia’s senate race, which along with California’s Proposition 8, may be the thing to watch on Election Night in the event of an Obama blowout. The polls, from what I can tell, are showing a fairly high undecided vote among the African-American population. Rasmussen’s most recent poll, which had Saxby Chambliss up by two, shows that 12 percent of black voters are undecided in the senate race. Were those voters to split 4:1 to Jim Martin, that would be worth a net of around 2 points to him, making the race a tie. SurveyUSA, likewise, shows a higher rate of undecideds among black voters (7%) than among whites (3%).

Related thought: it’s very difficult to imagine what a Chambliss-Obama voter looks like. It’s pretty easy to imagine what a McCain-Martin voter looks like. So if the Georgia polls have Obama down by 4 or 5 points, but Martin down by 2 or 3 points (as they do), something doesn’t quite seem right; I’d think the gap should be a bit wider.

Basically, I think this race is a true toss-up rather than a Lean R. African-American voters might be unfamiliar with Jim Martin, who didn’t become the nominee until August, but the ‘D’ beside his name is worth a lot..”
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Local Early Voting Report

Above: at long last, the folks at Freedom Blogging have finally enabled me to post videos from NewsChannel9.com here. Above: NewsChannel9’s Erica Green has an early voting report.

The Hamilton County Election Commission says as of Wednesday, 61576 people have voted early.

Reminder: TODAY’s your LAST DAY to vote early in Tennessee & FRIDAY is your LAST DAY to vote early in Georgia!

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McCain Matching Obama in Battleground State Ad Buys

From the Boston Globe:

“Ad spending and ad placement data obtained from Democratic and Republican operatives show that in the closing days of the campaign the Republican voice has grown louder in states such as Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Virginia and Pennsylvania.

For instance, Obama had been scheduled to buy about $2.5 million in Florida ads for the last week of the campaign. McCain is now set to spend about $1.6 million and the Republican National Committee added $1.5 million to their buy in the state this week. Obama appears to have added more weight to his ads since.”

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New Battleground State Polls

From Time magazine:

Pennsylvania: Obama 55, McCain 43
North Carolina: Obama 52, McCain 46
Nevada: Obama 52, McCain 45
Ohio: Obama 51, McCain 47
Arizona: McCain 53, Obama 46

Find out more info, including male/female & making over $50K/under $50K preferences here.

How about those Arizona numbers? Here’s another one, from NBC, that’s no doubt making McCain nervous. [Remember, Al Gore infamously lost his home state in 2000.]

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What Obama’s ‘Infomercial‘ Reminded Me Of Most

Think about it: what ad since 1984 can that infomercial compare to, besides this one?

Nate Silver adds:

“Discuss: all else being equal, the most optimistic candidate wins the election. And that’s definitely the mood that Obama is going for with this thing.”

I also would point out that not mentioning John McCain or President Bush was stroke of genius. It makes it harder for the right to criticize the ad because of this.

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Whoops:

Above: a screen grab from Fox News yesterday.

This is not the first time Fox’s graphics department has gotten it wrong.

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Campaign Quiz Time

Test your 2008 campaign knowledge here, & answer questions that include

2. Which one of these statements did Barack Obama make while campaigning?

A) “I’ve now been in 57 states. I think one left to go.”

B) “Most of all, I believe in you, Nebraska. Or South Dakota. Or wherever I am.”

C) “We’ve come so far since we began this campaign 21 years ago.”

Here’s a trivia question I’d add: which two presidential candidates stopped in Chattanooga during the primary season? (answer here)

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[below: the latest writings about the state of the conservative movement, as expressed by conservatives]

George Will:

From the invasion of Iraq to the selection of Sarah Palin, carelessness has characterized recent episodes of faux conservatism. Tuesday’s probable repudiation of the Republican Party will punish characteristics displayed in the campaign’s closing days.

Some polls show that Palin has become an even heavier weight in John McCain’s saddle than his association with George W. Bush. Did McCain, who seems to think that Palin’s never having attended a “Georgetown cocktail party” is sufficient qualification for the vice presidency, lift an eyebrow when she said that vice presidents “are in charge of the United States Senate”?

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Bill & Barack

Click here to view the embedded video.

Above: Bill Clinton & Barack Obama, together on stage for the first time, last night after the ‘infomercial‘ aired.

Post from: The Blog Formerly Known As Vote '08

JUST 6 MORE DAYS

The Infomercial

I thought it was well-done. It certainly beats Ross Perot’s informercial from 1992.

He kept it positive - didn’t mention the word “Bush” once.

Watch & tell me what you think.

Read McCain’s ‘prebuttal’ to the infomercial here.

A lot of you have voted already. As of Monday, more than 50,000 people have voted in Hamilton County.

Which way are early voters leaning? Marc Ambinder:

Obama leads by 16 points among likely voters, by 17 points among independents, by 13 points among men, by 20 points among women, is tied among whites, and is up eight among white Catholics. Of the 15 percent of the sample who’ve already voted, Obama leads by 19 points (although this subsample has a fairly large MoE). 74% of Obama’s backers say they support him “strongly,” which is 20 points higher than the percentage who say the same about their support for McCain.

Click here for the full Pew results, as of Tuesday.

Here’s a site where you can see the early voting numbers already in from around the country. Very useful.

From that site I glean:

The number of early voters so far in Tennessee is 45% of the total number of votes in 2004. (wow.)

&, 36.4% of the ENTIRE number of votes cast in Georgia in 2004 have been cast already this year. (again, wow.)

The Peach state is turning into one of THE states to watch this year - & I had written that state off months ago, back when Bob Barr’s Georgia support started dropping off.

But now - look at this chart over at Pollster.com. We have ourselves a real nail-biter, folks.

& not just the presidential race. The battle for Saxby Chambliss’ Senate seat remains intense.

The two latest polls come from polling firms that lean either way.

The left-leaning InsiderAdvantage poll has Saxby Chambliss & Jim Martin at 46-44%, That same poll also shows McCain leading by just 1 point).

The right-leaning Strategic Vision poll has Chambliss up by 2, & McCain up by 6.

& it’s possible that Georgia may be the last Senate race called - as in called several weeks after election night. MSNBC’s First Read blog explains:

“If Martin wins, he’ll have Obama to thank because the surge in African-American turnout is clearly benefiting the Democrat. By the way, Georgia could be the state that is the final race called in the country. Why? The state has that quirky runoff law, and a third-party candidate in the race might hold one of the major party candidates under 50%. The last time Georgia hosted a Senate runoff was the last time the country elected a new Democratic president: 1992, when the election of Clinton ended up helping the Republicans pull the Senate upset (Paul Coverdell defeated Wyche Fowler). This time, however, Republicans fear that an Obama victory will only energize African Americans in the runoff and make Chambliss’ path to victory even more difficult.”

Speaking of African-American turnout, it’s huge in Georgia - check it out. Georgia’s Secretary of State reports that 35% of early voters are African-American - more than double the percentage of the state’s population.

& there seems to be a correlation between a state’s African-American voting population & percentage of early voter turnout. FiveThirtyEight.com’s Nate Silver has the details here. In short, the higher the percentage of blacks in a state, the higher early voter turnout is. The states with the highest turnout are Georgia, North Carolina & Louisiana.

Can McCain count on voters who make up their minds in this final week? The trends (from Pollster.com) from past Presidential elections, in terms of their numbers, don’t look promising:

Click this link (again, to Pollster.com) to find out which way those last-minute voters swing.

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But still, interestingly, yet probably unsurprisingly, Obama still faces a major disadvantage with voters down here in that long-GOP stronghold, the South, per ABC News:

Obama is outperforming any Democrat back to Jimmy Carter among white voters, getting 45 percent to McCain’s 52 percent. But in the South, it is a very different story. Obama fares worse among Southern whites than any Democrat since George McGovern in 1972.

Whites in the East and West tilt narrowly toward Obama (he’s up 8 and 7 points, respectively), and the two run about evenly among those in the Midwest. By contrast, Southern whites break more than 2 to 1 for McCain, 65 percent to 32 percent.

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SIX DAYS.

Barack Obama

His informercial appears on most of network TV tonight… except for ABC (read why here). Needless to say, I’m ashamed of my parent network about this. It’s airing “Pushing Daisies” instead, & running some frankly offensive promos about it.

Click here to view the embedded video.

Above: wet, wet wet conditions in Chester, Pennsylvania on Tuesday. Doesn’t look fun at all.

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Click here to view the embedded video.

Above: Obama making calls to undecided voters in Colorado.

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Has Obama fudged his “no tax increases for those making under $250,000″ promise this week? Marc Ambinder does some fact-checking.

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Michelle Obama appeared on Jay Leno Monday. Click here to watch.

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Why the Right’s ‘Kitchen Sink’ Philosophy is Failing

From the Toot:

“…once you’ve made a narrative choice, you do have to stick with it - you can’t just keep bouncing around, or people become confused. If you are telling the story of a scary vampire, you can’t decide in chapter 2 that he’s also 500 feet tall and radioactive and bent on destroying Tokyo, in chapter 3 that he is actually a giant man-eating shark, and in chapter 4 that he is all this and a super-terrorist trying to plant a nuclear bomb in Los Angeles. All of these things are, indeed, scary, but taken together they add up to a muddle.

This is the problem. It’s not just the McCain campaign’s problem - although their inability to pick a narrative and stick to it is a special kind of inexcusable - it’s a problem for the entire wingnut noise machine. Obama is a Marxist Muslim Arab Jesus Black White Terrorist Technocrat Racist Do-Gooder Liberal FDR Stalin Hilter Commie Fascist Gay Womanizing Naive Cynical Insider Noob Boring Radical Unaccomplished Elite Slick Gaffe-Prone Pedophile Pedophile-Seducing Liberation Theology Atheist Etc. & Anti-Etc. with a bunch of scary friends from - wait for it! - the Nineteen Hundred And Sixties. It makes no sense. It’s a jumble sale of fears and scary associations from 50 years of wingnut witch hunts and smear campaigns, a flea market of pre-owned and antique resentments, and if one does detect a semi-consistent 1960’s motif running through it all, that’s because that’s when most of these ideas were coined.”

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John McCain

Click here to view the embedded video.

Above: at a joint rally with Sarah Palin in Hershey Pennsylvania on Tuesday.

He also appeared in North Carolina..

…but, interestingly, without incumbent GOP Senator Elizabeth Dole. (this may be why)

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Speaking of absences, someone’s face appears to be conspicuously absent from his own party’s website.

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Is the ‘Divided Government’ Argument Going to Work?

It’s the major card McCain has left to play. But Newsweek’s Andrew Romano is pessimistic. Former Bush staffer Peter Wehner hsays the party needs to return to its reformist roots [which, I'd add, is what John McCain should have pushed harder for - challenging his party to return to its fundamental principles - instead of blatantly pandering to its base, which has spent the past year essentially rooting for the status quo, or at least is blind to why the status quo is in such a sorry state].

Here’s a ‘Silver Lining’ for Republicans, though:

Single-party government rarely works for very long. It tends to overreach when there are no limits to those in power (see Congress/President Bush, 2002-2006). If this plays out, that will bode well for the beginning of a comeback for the now-battered GOP. [though I will say that if you sat on your hands & approved of how things were run under Republican leadership, you have a smaller rhetorical leg to stand on.]

& here’s a reason Democrats might prefer divided government:

['divided' here being less than a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate]

If this crazy year ends the way the trends are looking - that Obama will be elected - Obama’s historical standing would improve if he brought about change with the help & support of the minority party.

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The Keystone State Conundrum

Why is McCain behind Obama in the Pennsylvania polls? Michael Barone hazards a guess:

“My hypothesis is that that is because places like the Philly suburbs are places where the recent decline in household wealth has been most conspicuous. Housing prices mean a lot more to you when your house started off at $400,000 and declined to $290,000 than they did when you started off (as may be typical of Scranton or a blue-collar town in metro Pittsburgh) at $140,000 and declined to $110,000. Newspaper coverage of our current economic distress focuses on the very poor (like a recent Washington Post story on North Carolina, which focused on an ex-convict in a cheap motel in Charlotte), but the people who are getting hurt most visibly in their lifelong project of accumulating wealth are the more affluent. They’re the ones whose house values have most visibly and spectacularly declined, and whose 401(k) accounts and stock portfolios have tanked in the last few months as well. Folks in Scranton or in the cheap motel in Charlotte didn’t expect to live comfortably ever after off their increased house values, 401(k)’s, and Merrill Lynch accounts; a $700 monthly check from Social Security is about what they have long expected and that’s not in danger (yet). Folks in the Philly suburbs did expect to live comfortably off such assets.”

& he concludes

“The irony here is that voters motivated by anger at the decline in their wealth seem about to elect a president who has promised to embark on wealth-destroying policies.”

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What Hath Karl Rove Wrought?

The exodus of a chunk of voters - Libertarians - who traditionally vote Republican, that’s what.

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Joe Biden

Click here to view the embedded video.

Here’s a view-from-the-crowd at a Joe rally in New Port Richey, Florida on Monday. He remained in Florida on Tuesday.

Sarah Palin

Click here to view the embedded video.

Above: at a rally in Hershey, Pennsylvania, appearing with McCain.

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Sadly, there appears to be quite a few reports of ‘ugly Americanism‘ at her rallies, & that’s a shame for Palin & her supporters, who in my opinion should quickly & forcefully speak out about those who would tarnish her image, especially if you are hoping she becomes the Republican party’s standard-bearer after the election.

That’s it for now! I know it’s a lot to digest, but please feel free to comment on anything mentioned above. ALL views are welcome here.

& check back later in the day, as I’ll provide more info in this post. Let me know what you think of the ‘one-post’ format. I think I’ll stick to doing it this way through the home stretch.

Post from: The Blog Formerly Known As Vote '08

(Above: me, Worlds of Fun, Kansas City Missouri, June, 1974)

Not only are NewsChannel9 producer Heather Williams & I linked in that we both blog for NewsChannel9.com [she does the always-entertaining 'Backstretch Blog' covering all things NASCAR over in the sports section of this website], but we also were born & raised in the same part of the country - northwest Missouri [she Kansas City, myself St. Joseph].

We decided to do a ‘joint post’ that combines politics & racing.

Below are her projections as to which candidate resembles which NASCAR driver the most.

Barack Obama is Carl Edwards

4 years ago no one had heard of Edwards. Now he is on the verge of being at the top of his sport and winning a cup championship. Kinda like Obama. 4 years ago he burst onto the scene, a virtual unknown at the DNC. Now he is on the verge of being president.

John McCain is Mark Martin

The one thing missing from Martin’s resume is a cup championship. He has been runner up 4 times. He has signed with the sports best team for 2009 and finally put himself in position to win a title. McCain has run for president many times before, and finally got the nomination this year. After a long distinguished career, he to has finally put himself in a position to win.

Joe Biden is Kevin Harvick

Harvick is wildly unpredictable but good at what he does, but he is a top notch teammate and team owner. Biden is also unpredictable, but a respected member of the Senate and a good guy to have on your team.

(yes I realize the drivers I picked don’t like each other, but we actually picked these drivers about a month ago and as I said, I picked on their personality only)

Sarah Palin is David Ragan

When Jack Roush put  Ragan in a cup car 2 years ago, every one thought the cat in the hat was nuts. When he first started racing he was all over the place. But slowly he has grown into a decent driver that has become an asset to his team. When McCain picked Palin a lot of people thought he was nuts as well, but over time she has been able to energize the base and become an asset to the ticket

(Another interesting note about these two, Ragan’s brother Adam has Down Syndrome and does Palin’s youngest son Trig)

Excellent job, Heather!

What do you think of her picks? Do you disagree? Let us know in the comments section!

Post from: The Blog Formerly Known As Vote '08

[above: Cabbage Patch Candidate Joe Biden. No, I don't think it looks like him either.]

Click here to view the embedded video.

Above: in New Port Richey, Florida, yesterday.

More Local TV Appearances

On Monday Biden spoke with a local news anchor in Kentucky (watch it here), who asks him about what he plans to do with his Senate seat if elected, & comments on a poll revealing a good chunk of folks in the Bluegrass state still (falsely) believe Barack Obama is a muslim.

Speaking of local TV interviews, Barbara West, the WFTV anchor in Florida whose now famous interview of Joe Biden has been seen by just about everyone on the planet, interviewed John McCain yesterday. Click here to watch, & then come back & tell me what you thought of how she handled McCain vs. Biden. Also, click here to join the discussion on whether or not she was biased.

Biden was in North Carolina yesterday, courting the youth vote. He was in Greensboro & Greenville - again, like we said with Palin, probably the closest any candidate will come to our area.

Post from: The Blog Formerly Known As Vote '08

Click here to view the embedded video.

Above: in Tacoma, Washington.

Today’s episode: Much more on that Florida TV anchor’s “hard-hitting” interview that left the candidate flustered.

Click here to view the embedded video.

Plenty more criticism (for both Biden & the anchor) of the now-infamous WFTV interview.

Read more here, here, here, here, & here. (which links are which? sorry - you’ll have to click on them all to find out. Remember, one of this blog’s missions is to get you to expand your media diet).

This certainly has become an “bias is in the eye of the beholder” moment.

Those on the right would like to paint this as Biden’s “Katie Couric” moment. My opinion: I don’t think so. It’s not like she ’stumped’ him.

The interviewer’s critics say she’s just “regurgitating Fox News talking points.” That could be correct - but she certainly has a 1st Amendment right to ask whatever she wants.

Would an interview go this way with any candidate on any side with an anchor or reporter here at NewsChannel 9? I won’t presume to speak for any of them. Like all of you, they each have their own views on politics, but all of them (admirably, I think) take great pains to be fair to all of our viewers. This business, if nothing else, teaches you to recognize & respect the diversity of opinions & outlooks out there. I will say I do know NewsChannel9’s anchors & reporters well enough to say each of them would be “tough but fair.”

To do otherwise (essentially shutting oneself off from a huge chunk of your desired audience) is nothing but self-defeating.

So is the woman above ‘tough?’ Yes.

But is she being ‘fair?’ Not to at least half her audience.

What do you think?

UPDATE: It’s been revealed that the anchor’s husband is a media consultant from the GOP. That, in my opinion, makes this far more distasteful.

UPDATE #2: I’ve asked my colleagues for comment on this story.

Melydia Clewell, our assignment editor, says:

“I do believe our staff does a great job trying to remain objective, fair and balanced. That said, reporters have actually asked to be un-assigned stories related to GOP/Dem candidates because they don’t believe they can keep their personal viewpoint from affecting the outcome of their reporting. At least they are aware of their biases, but I do hate that we have some folks who admittedly can not escape a partisan mindset.”

Tom Henderson, NewsChannel 9’s News Director (& my boss) says:

“NewsChannel 9’s journalists and manager-journalists rely on the Society of
Professional Journalists code of ethics for guidance in matters like this.
Here are a few of the directives the SPJ code gives to reporters:

— Examine their own cultural values and avoid imposing those values on others

— Avoid conflicts of interest, real or perceived.

— Remain free of associations and activities that may compromise integrity
or damage credibility.

— Disclose unavoidable conflicts.

— Deny favored treatment to advertisers and special interests and resist
their pressure to influence news coverage.

Ultimately it is up to viewers and website users to judge the credibility
of reporters and the newsrooms in which they work. NewsChannel 9 welcomes
scrutiny of our practices and methods. We are not perfect, but we do
strive to stay within the bounds of the SPJ code while going the exra mile
so that consumers of our news are more informed and better prepared.

You can read the entire code here: http://www.spj.org/ethicscode.asp
Tom Henderson
News Director
WTVC and newschannel9.com”

John Creel, WTVC Operations Engineer, says:

Because of her husbands job I’m less enthusiastic/impressed/ect. about her Q&A.
She could have been spouting off RNC talking points she didn’t develop on her own.
The questions however are still valid.  Someone should be asking those questions!

Fairness is like the feet of a drunk man, taking a field sobriety test, it varies
with the opinions of those percieving it.  It’s no longer the standard fromwhich we measure abnormalities or deviations.
ee cummings wrote a poem that applies.

“We sit around a ring and suppose

The secret sits in the middle and knows.”

Opinions have always surrounded the truth by hiding somewhere in the middle.

Indeed, John.

What do you think?

Post from: The Blog Formerly Known As Vote '08

(above: Biden on the bus in Johannesburg, 1976)

Above: in Suffolk, Virginia on Saturday.

More flak from the controversial local TV interview you can see here. The anchor responds to the criticism.

Post from: The Blog Formerly Known As Vote '08

Click here to view the embedded video.

Above: in Danville, Virginia yesterday.

After the jump: Biden gives an interview to a ‘hostile’ local TV anchor…watch an ad Biden is running for his current Delaware Senate seat…

Click here to view the embedded video.

Is this interviewer biased against the Democratic candidate?

Watch her earlier interview with McCain & decide for yourself.

Click here for a viewpoint that says yes, the interviewer was unfairly biased.

Click here for a viewpoint that says no, the interviewer wasn’t unfairly biased.

Still Campaigning for His DE Senate Seat

What happens to the seat if Biden heads to the White House? Click here for the answer.

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(Biden (right) as a kid, with two of his siblings)

TODAY’S EPISODE: More campaigning in Colorado…’scolded’ by his boss for ‘tested’ comment

Above: another day of campaigning in Colorado, specifically Colorado Springs

Above: the statement that’s gotten him in hot water in the past few days. “It will not be 6 months before the world tests Barack Obama like they did John Kennedy.”

Above: he gets asked about it on local TV.

Above: What Obama said about Biden’s remarks. Read more here.

Above: Connecticut Senator (& McCain supporter) Joe Lieberman making similar comments 3 months ago.

Read one side of the coin on this issue, from “Politics by Satire.”

Read the other side of the coin on this issue, from former Secretary of State Madeleine Albright.

What do you think?

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TODAY’S EPISODE: Campaigning in Colorado…why Biden’s ‘the forgotten candidate’

Above: at the University of Colorado-Greeley yesterday. (I enjoy doing these “from the crowd” clips to give you a better sense of what it’s like to be there)

The “Forgotten Candidate”

From the New Yorker’s Ryan Lizza:

“…unsurprisingly, Palin has dominated the coverage. The press section of Biden’s campaign plane is dominated by young television reporters who don’t get much attention from their producers in New York and Washington. One evening when I was there, several correspondents played Guitar Hero while a crew from the television show “Extra” threw darts at a magnetic board.

On some days, only a single print reporter is covering Biden, and weekly studies of the news by the Pew Research Center’s Project for Excellence in Journalism note that Biden was the subject of between two and six per cent of all stories each week in September. (Palin was the focus of between fifteen and sixty per cent of a week’s worth of news in that same period.) Pew has noted that Biden is “the virtually forgotten candidate,” someone who “has consistently been an afterthought in the coverage.””

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Today’s Episode: Biden warns of a coming international crisis for the next president…Julia Louis-Dreyfuss goes “in the tank” for Biden…whether Biden is a “Mr. August,” “Mr. October” or a “Mr. January…

Warning of “Crisis”

From MSNBC’s First Read:

“Attracting the most attention this morning was his prediction on Sunday that within six months of his administration, Obama would be tested just as John F. Kennedy was.

“Watch, we’re gonna have an international crisis, a generated crisis, to test the mettle of this guy,” Biden said. “And he’s gonna have to make some really tough — I don’t know what the decision’s gonna be, but I promise you it will occur. As a student of history and having served with seven presidents, I guarantee you, it’s gonna happen.”

The McCain campaign has pounced on the statement as Biden perhaps implying that Obama could not handle a crisis alone. The Obama campaign disagrees, however, saying Biden just “referenced the simple fact that history shows Presidents face challenges from day one.”

And they emphasize the larger context of Biden’s statement, that the nation would be “in the right hands” with Obama. The help Biden was calling for was as support for Obama would have to make “sound,” though likely unpopular decisions.

“Be prepared to stick with us,” he said. “Remember the faith you had at this point because you’re going to have to reinforce us.”

It is noteworthy, though, how similar Biden’s comments were to a statement in June by McCain supporter Joe Lieberman, one that was strongly criticized by Obama supporters.

“Our enemies will test the new president early,” Lieberman said on “Face the Nation.” “Remember that the truck bombing of the World Trade Center happened in the first year of the Clinton administration. 9/11 happened in the first year of the Bush administration.”

Biden’s assessment would seem in line with Lieberman’s, but rather than evoking the potential for a crisis as evidence Obama was not ready, Biden raised the notion to argue precisely the opposite.

Julia Louis-Dreyfuss “In the Tank” for Biden

Above: from yesterday’s Ellen Degeneres show. This was a fundraiser for breast cancer research.

A ‘January Pick’

From Ryan Lizza’s recent New Yorker piece called “Biden’s Brief::

In 2004, when John Kerry was conducting his search for a running mate, he divided his options into three groups, based on the electoral calendar. “Kerry said you can pick either a Mr. August, a Mr. October, or a Mr. January,” David Wade, who was Kerry’s press secretary at the time and is now serving in that role for Biden, told me. “In a perfect world, you have someone who is all three.”

By Kerry’s logic, Sarah Palin, the Alaska governor, whom John McCain named as his running mate, was an August pick, a choice made by a candidate who was falling behind and needed to re-start his campaign at his nominating Convention. An August pick can also help unite a party after a divisive primary. An October pick, too, tends to be political—someone with strong, even strident campaign skills, who might help to carry a state or a demographic group. Kerry’s choice—John Edwards—may have fallen into that category.

August and October picks have become something of an anachronism, and in that way Palin is a throwback to an era when Vice-Presidents were chosen by party professionals, strictly for electoral reasons. In office, they had little influence; sometimes, at the whim of the President or out of political expedience, they were dumped from the ticket. Abraham Lincoln dumped Hannibal Hamlin for Andrew Johnson in 1864, and F.D.R. got rid of John Nance Garner in 1940 and Henry Wallace in 1944 (replacing him with Harry Truman).

Probably the greatest failure in the job since the Second World War was Spiro Agnew—the relatively unknown governor of a small state, Maryland, with no experience of Washington. It is hard to avoid comparing Agnew’s qualifications with Palin’s, despite all the talk about her “maverick” spirit, her role as the first female on a Republican national ticket, and her presumed appeal not only to the “base” but to disaffected Hillary Clinton voters. Like McCain, Nixon picked someone he knew would surprise people. Like Palin, Agnew was unleashed to attack the élites of his day and the press—“an effete corps of impudent snobs.”

Every Presidential candidate professes to want someone with the ability to help govern the country, and, in fact, the January running mate has become more common. Not surprisingly, the most powerful modern Vice-Presidents have been politicians who had congressional experience and long Washington résumés—Walter Mondale, George H. W. Bush, Al Gore, and Dick Cheney. The January pick has increasingly become a good October choice, too. In recent elections, running mates chosen more for political reasons have fared less well than veterans.

In 2000, Joe Lieberman, who had outspokenly criticized Bill Clinton’s affair with Monica Lewinsky, and was selected in large part to help Al Gore distance himself from the Clinton sex scandal, was not a great help for Gore.

Edwards, in 2004, was chosen partly for his campaign skills, though Kerry had reportedly wanted the more stolid Dick Gephardt, the former House Majority Leader, and was deeply disappointed at his performance on the trail and in his debate with Dick Cheney. There was certainly an initial burst of enthusiasm for Palin, and large crowds continue to attend her rallies, but she is popular mostly with an increasingly angry and frustrated Republican base and has been unable to stall McCain’s steep descent in the polls; sixty per cent of the public believes that she is not qualified to be President.”

Read the full article here.

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Above: in North Carolina this weekend.

Today he urged supporters to “gird their loins” (pardon?) for “cleaning up government,” a task he likened to cleaning the Augean Stables, & also said:

“Mark my words,” the Democratic vice presidential nominee warned at the second of his two Seattle fundraisers Sunday. “It will not be six months before the world tests Barack Obama like they did John Kennedy. The world is looking. We’re about to elect a brilliant 47-year-old senator president of the United States of America. Remember I said it standing here if you don’t remember anything else I said. Watch, we’re gonna have an international crisis, a generated crisis, to test the mettle of this guy.”

“I can give you at least four or five scenarios from where it might originate,” Biden said to Emerald City supporters, mentioning the Middle East and Russia as possibilities. “And he’s gonna need help. And the kind of help he’s gonna need is, he’s gonna need you - not financially to help him - we’re gonna need you to use your influence, your influence within the community, to stand with him. Because it’s not gonna be apparent initially, it’s not gonna be apparent that we’re right.”

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Above: On the stump yesterday, in his home state of Delaware.

Last night he was the focus of ABC’s Nightline; read more about it here.

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Picture if you will…

What if Obama’s father hadn’t ever left Kenya to meet his mother?

Above: here are your two tickets.

As of October 13th, after more than six months of wearying negative campaigning on both sides, Clinton has a slight lead in the polls thanks to the financial crisis.

Polls remain very tight.

3rd party candidates are much more in play (Paul/Bloomberg?). Ceiling of 3rd party vote nationwide is about 4%.

Mike Huckabee is the race’s “Sarah Palin.”

Final electoral tally reaches a margin of victory smaller than 2004’s.

What if Obama lost the primaries?

Above: Here are your two tickets.

As of October 13th, the McCain campaign is in nearly exact same position as now in the polls, possibly worse.

Polls tend to be closer to what they are in reality.

Obama is the race’s ‘Sarah Palin.’

Final electoral tally reaches a margin of victory greater than 2004’s.

What do you think?

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