Above: a montage of a chorus of “Roberts” from the White House press corps at Spokesman Gibb’s first presser today.

Below: a bird store in Chicago.

Click here to view the embedded video.

Please play both clips at once.

Post from: The Blog Formerly Known As Vote '08

[me, right before the blizzard of '78. photo by my father]

Whole-heartedly & full-throatedly rejected by the Storm Track 9 Team:

1. To keep warm at night, wear your warmest winter coat to bed, & nothing else.

2. During the day, wear as many of your pets as possible.

3. Instead of nodding your head ‘yes,’ rub your hands together to provide warmth. Do the same in place of shaking your head ‘no.’ Count on your friends & co-workers to know you well enough to be able tell which answer you’re giving.

4. Ask your neighbors if you can borrow their laptop computers. Lie on the ground, plug them all in, & turn them on. Cover your flat body with as many laptops as possible. Maintain this position until the cold weather passes.

5. Make 30 gallons of chili. Right before you go to bed, & while it’s still bubbling hot, replace the water in your water bed with the chili. If you don’t have a water bed, place the chili in a large trash bag (note: you may need to use a couple of extra twist-ties to keep the chili from escaping the bag during the night).

Post from: The Blog Formerly Known As Vote '08

Courtesy of the Hill blog:

Sen. Tom Coburn (R-Okla.) followed through on his bet with Sen. Bill Nelson (D-Fla.) over college football’s national title game by singing Elton John’s “Rocket Man” before some of Nelson and Coburn’s staff on Wednesday.

Nelson won the bet after the University of Florida Gators managed a 24-14 win over the University of Oklahoma Sooners last week during the Bowl Championship Series title game.

Nelson’s office had razzed Coburn’s last week for having lost the bet, but Coburn made good on his pledge and sang for Nelson’s constituents today.

Coburn had asked his staff, who were present, to sing along with him. They declined, and Nelson joined him instead.

“Bill’s gonna sing along because he’s the rocket man,” Coburn said. Nelson spent six days in space aboard the space shuttle Columbia in 1986 as a sitting member of Congress. He is regarded as a leading congressional expert on NASA.

I have to say it’s still advantage Franken.

But Coburn gets an “A” for effort.

Post from: The Blog Formerly Known As Vote '08

.

Provided that Franken ultimately gets there (& that’s not anywhere close to a done deal), you have to go all the way back to former Majority Leader George Mitchell of Maine(1) to find a United States Senator who could pull off such a great Mick Jagger imitation(2).

After the jump, a performance by the real deal of the same song from roughly the same era as above(3) - 1981ish - so you can compare notes(4).

Congratulations, Minnesotans!

Click here to view the embedded video.

footnootes

(1) Not really. What, are you kidding?

(2) & yes, I’m leaving out you-know-who. Sorry - that Senate-floor ‘performance’ of “It’s Only Rock & Roll” was weak.

(3) Ahh, Solid Gold, the poor man’s American Bandstand. Anyone else remember this show? Marilyn McCoo, whom you see at the beginning of the (top) clip, used to front a band of her own.

(4) The less patient among you should skip to 1:03 in the lower clip. I’d recommend playing both at once, but I’m not sure when to start which, as I am writing this post from the library.

Post from: The Blog Formerly Known As Vote '08

(keep repeating clip 2 as you watch clips 1 & 3).

Click here to view the embedded video.

(h/t Kim Fields for the idea)

Click here to view the embedded video.

(click here for details on the story in case you haven’t heard)

Post from: The Blog Formerly Known As Vote '08

The term pareidolia means perceiving significance in stimuli that have none.

One of my fun internet finds of the year, Strange Maps, has a great post featuring photos like the one you see above & other pareidoliac perceptions sent in by viewers (a cloud shaped like Britain, a puddle shaped like the U.S.

Do you own any pareidoliac photos?

If so, I’d love to see them! e-mail me at dlehr@newschannel9.com.

In the meantime, I’m going to see if I can work the word “pareidolia” into conversation somehow.

Post from: The Blog Formerly Known As Vote '08

Above: not the picture that’s been burning up the web in the last 24 hours of Barack Obama shirtless in Hawaii. That, of course, is Gerry Ford.

You can see the actual photo (which I can’t legally re-post) here.

& read more about the frenzy the photo has caused here.

Now, I saw that photo late yesterday & debated whether or not to do a story on it - I kind of tend to shy away from the tabloid stuff.

But my boss just insisted I do something, saying it’s the ‘water-cooler talk of the internet.’

& it’s true, the reaction to this paparazzo’s pic has been funny - the Huffington Post’s over-the-top headline -

“O!”

- was particularly laughable, in an avert-your-eyes kinda way.

But, then again, I’m a heterosexual male. They’re male nipples. What’s the big deal?

So I polled several female NewsChannel9 employees about the pic, & was surprised at the answers I got:

As I expected, several swooned.

“Mmmm!” said one. “Oh, my..” said another. A third said “If my husband looks like that at age 47, I’m a happy woman.”

But you may be surprised to learn - as I was - that the reaction wasn’t nearly unanimous.

About half of those I polled weren’t turned on at all.

One employee made a reference to his prominent ‘man-boobs.’

Another said that the top half & (somewhat paunchy) bottom half didn’t match as well as they could. “He needs to do some more curls,” said one.

All interesting.

To each his own, I guess!

What do you think? I’d love to hear your opinion.

Obama’s certainly not the only president who’s been photographed half-naked. Help yourself to some more shirtless presidential eye-candy here.

…you’re welcome.

Post from: The Blog Formerly Known As Vote '08

With one fell swoop, Eric Spiegelman steals our whole “Obama is the next..” bit by pulling quotes comparing the President-elect to every single president from Bush all the way back to Lincoln.

Post from: The Blog Formerly Known As Vote '08

A friend pointed this out to me.

On the left: Arne Duncan, Obama’s Education Secretary nominee.

On the right: that principal guy from ‘the Breakfast Club.’

Post from: The Blog Formerly Known As Vote '08

The fashionista site WWD has asked several top designers for their ideas on how to clothe the future 1st Lady on January 20th.

Since I’m a long, long way from being any kind of expert on fashion, I can do nothing else but make fun of some of these suggestions, after the jump.

To pull off Betsey Johnson’s look, Mrs. Obama will be required to wade knee-deep in tomato sauce.

‘Green’ is in this year (no, not the color, silly!). That’s why Koi Suwannagate has Obama putting her best foot forward with a dress made of recycled paper; in this case, they’re made of rejected provisional paper ballots.

Christian Lacroix’s suggestion would work, provided a) the 6-foot live Burmese python can hold that position around her neck for several hours, & b) added Secret Service stay very close by should something go wrong.

Zac Posen anticipates that a rousing production of Alice Walker’s “the Color Purple” will be worked into the festivities..

…while Rodarte seems to believe the attending aliens from Close Encounters of the Third Kind will require a need to feel at home.

Chado Ralph-Rucci’s apparently hoping to affix a long pole through the back of this dress; presumably so she can be easily seen by those way in the back;

Should that happen, this 2nd offering from Christian Lacroix should be worn underneath - when it’s time to remove herself from the pole, she can just spread her wings & just fly off. She needs to be careful landing with those spindly legs, though.

The upside to Zero + Maria Cornejo’s concotion: hair & makeup not an issue;

The downside: the scars from the radical reconstructive facial surgery may not be healed by January 20th.

Post from: The Blog Formerly Known As Vote '08

Recommended: Play them both at the same time: begin the bottom clip 1st, & then play the top clip at about 30 seconds in.

Post from: The Blog Formerly Known As Vote '08

“I’ve been sleeping like a baby,” the GOP candidate said on The Tonight Show Tuesday. “I sleep two hours, wake up and cry. Sleep two hours, wake up and cry.”

Watch the appearance here.

Post from: The Blog Formerly Known As Vote '08

What’s going on?

In this post, which will remain up until Tuesday night, I’m pulling back the curtain & showing you exactly what news about campaign 2008 I am checking throughout the day.

The most recent entry will be at the top; to start from the beginning, scroll to the bottom.

& I want to hear what you think! Click here to post a comment.

Calvin Can’t Stop Talking about McCain’s Tennessee Stop

Amazing on a day when his beloved Tennessee Vols are in the news.. Calvin says he’s got a better idea for McCain’s strategy in winning NC & VA than stopping in Blountville:

A campaign stop in the Tri-Cities was bad strategy for McCain, trying to woo SW Virginia and Western NC voters.. True, two of the three TV stations with strong VHF signals (WCYB-TV, Channel 5 and WJHL-TV, Channel 11), do indeed blanket all of SW Virginia and part of Western North Carolina.

But SW Virginia voters work and shop in Tri-Cities, Tennessee. As a result, they are usually politically aligned with their neighbors in Upper East Tennessee.. SW Virginia voters are mostly Republican, voting the same way upper East Tennessee has voted for generations, and this includes absentee voting, early voting, and Election Day-of voting.

A Republican visit by a presidential candidate and covered heavily on Tri-Cities TV, only reinforces the way SW Virginia voters are going to vote anyway.

AND, Tri-Cities stations only get marginally viewership from Western North Carolina counties, and even then, mostly along the TN-NC border, because the mountains cut the signals off.

A much better media consideration for McCain would have been, a stop in Asheville, North Carolina, and then one in Roanoke, Virginia.. The 3 main reasons being:

1) Only two years ago, Western North Carolina elected Democrat Heath Shuler to Congress, and Tri-Cities station signals simply don’t reach that far down into that state. 2) The Roanoke TV market. A McCain visit in Roanoke would have had more of an impact on Central Virginia voters that all watch WSLS-TV, WDBJ-TV and WSET-TV from Roanoke-Lynchburg, and would have given McCain double-coverage, because Tri-Cities TV stations, mindful of their SW Virginia audience, would cover it extensively for their SW Virginia viewers anyway.

3) WLOS-TV, Asheville. With a transmitter signal coming from atop one of the highest points in the Eastern United States, and blanketing ALL of Western North Carolina, a McCain visit would have saturated the western third of the state, including that Democratic pocket that elected Heath Shuler, and also have been covered extensively by the rest of the North Carolina media.

Thanks, Calvin! .

Election Day Times

Mon/2:07pm

Click here for a full rundown of election times in Tennessee, Georgia, Alabama & North Carolina.

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Mor McCane Mispellingz

Mon/1:49pm

Think Progress has discovered three instances of misspelled words in McCain’s ads that have aired in the last month.

Come on, guys! Do you really have to get them out that fast?

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The Dog That Didn’t Bark

Mon/1:23pm

The Politico’s Jonathan Martin speculates what the 2008 campaign would look like if McCain & surrogates used Rev. Wright as an issue more:

“Conversations with a number of veteran GOP consultants indicate that using Wright may have helped McCain with one set of voters — but would have hurt with others and not ultimately proved decisive in a contest subsumed by larger external forces such as the economic crisis and the unpopularity of President Bush and the Republican Party.”

McCain deserves credit for not ‘going there.’

As Liddy Dole is about to find out, attacking someone’s faith only ends up hurting the attacker in the end.

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Why’s He in Tennessee Today?

Mon/1:18pm

He’s stopping in Blountville - you can be assured I’ll be looking for clips to post later today.

But why Blountville? He’s got the Volunteer State wrapped up.

Marc Ambinder says:

So why is Sen. McCain campaigning in Blountville, TN?

It has nothing to do with Blountville.

It has everything to do with the parts of rural North Carolina and rural Virginia that share its media market.

NewsChannel9 anchor & expert in all things ‘upper-east Tennessee’ Calvin Sneed says:

“I already knew that.. One-third of the audience that WCYB-TV and WJHL-TV reach are in Southwest Virginia up to Roanoake, and Western North Carolina, within a 70 mile circumference of Asheville. Too bad Kentucky is not a swing state. Those two stations also blanket Eastern-Southeastern Kentucky. I also knew two weeks ago, he’d be coming to Tri-Cities before the end of the campaign.”

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Good Gravy!

Mon/1:12PM

As if Georgia’s not enough (scroll down), check out North Carolina’s polls, which have tightened as of today.

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Mapping a McCain Win

Mon/11:48am

Nate Silver looks at several computer models. His top projection is above.

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If You’re Reading This, You’re Part of the Revolution

Mon/10:47am

Look at these numbers from Pew, which shows internet usage has TRIPLED this year, while TV & newspaper usage remains static.

Truly amazing.

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“My Wife Made Me Canvass for Obama”

Mon/10:40am

Read what a former Bush voter in North Carolina found out about voters while canvassing with his wife.

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The Five States to Watch on Election Night

Mon/10:34am

Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight.com (one of the true internet stars of Campaign 2008) says the states to keep an eye on will be:

1. Virginia

2. Colorado

3. Pennsylvania

4. Ohio

5. Nevada

Read why here.

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Does Obama Realistically Have a Shot at Arizona?

Mon/10:30 am

Marc Ambinder speculates & has some things to watch in the Grand Canyon State tomorrow night.

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Not All TN Polling Times Are the Same

Mon/10:16am

The election director in Polk County, TN just e-mailed NewsChannel9:

Please have Channel 9 broadcast Polk, Meigs, and McMinn County Polling Hours on Tuesday, November 4, 2008, to BEGIN AT 9:00 A.M. AND CLOSE AT 8:00 P.M. Your viewers hear Hamilton County hours and assume ours is the same. Your help will be greatly appreciated.

,

“Phone Gap” in the Polls?

Mon/10:12am

“The cellphone polls have Obama ahead by an average of 9.4 points; the landline-only polls, 5.1 points.”

- Nate Silver, FiveThirtyEight.com

. Click here to view the embedded video.

Obama in Cincinnati

Mon/10:03am

Above: Obama in Cincinnati yesterday.

I’m keeping an eye out for clips of the candidates today, so check back later.

.

Click here to view the embedded video.

McCain in Florida

Mon/10:01am

Above: a midnight rally in Miami, last night.

,

Where the Race Stands

Mon/9:54am

Above: NBC’s Chuck Todd maps out McCain’s path to victory.

From Chuck & others at MSNBC’s First Read blog:

*** Obama has a clear lead: With just a day left until Election Day, Obama holds an eight-point lead over McCain among likely voters, 51%-43%, according to the final national NBC/WSJ poll before the election. That’s down slightly from Obama’s 53%-to-42% advantage from almost two weeks ago. Still, to put his current lead into perspective, the last NBC/WSJ survey before the 2004 presidential election showed Bush with a slim one-point edge over Kerry, 48%-47%. Bush went on to win that election, 51%-48%. Looking inside the crosstabs, Obama’s advantage is largely based on his overwhelming success with African Americans (winning them 90%-3%), Latinos (68%-27%), and 18 to 34 year olds (59%-38%). It’s about as solid of a three-legged support stool as any candidate could ask for. Obama also wins independents (48%-38%), blue-collar voters (51%-44%), suburban voters (49%-44%), and Catholics (49%-46%). McCain, meanwhile, has the advantage among evangelicals (78%-19%), those 65 and older (53%-40%), white men (54%-42%), and white women (48%-47%). One more thing: 30% say they’ve already voted, and those voters break by an identical 51%-43% margin. One thing that might keep the McCain folks somewhat hopeful about our numbers: We have Democrats with a +10 advantage on party ID; McCain’s team believes the electorate won’t produce that margin tomorrow.

*** Liking McCain but loving Obama: The poll also shows that McCain and Obama are pretty well liked by voters. McCain has a 47%-39% fav/unfav rating, while Obama’s is larger at 56%-35%. But what’s striking is the intensity gap — almost twice as many respondents (44%) rate Obama “very positive” than they do for McCain (24%). In short, McCain’s supporters like him, but Obama’s LOVE him. Think about that 44% number for a minute: Obama’s overall ballot number is 51%, meaning that 86% of Obama’s supporters have a VERY positive view of him. Not since Reagan in 1980 has a base of supporters loved its nominee so much. Also, for the second-straight NBC/WSJ poll, Palin has a net-negative fav/unfav (39%-48%), while Biden has a net-positive one (50%-30%). In fact, if you add up Obama’s and Biden’s favorable scores, you get 106; for McCain-Palin, it’s 86.

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Good Grief!

Mon/9:45am

Georgia has become THE state to watch.

Just look at those polls!

It’s quite possible (& I chose it as such in the pool) that it could be the state with the closest margin of victory for either candidate.

The Senate race, I believe, is still Saxby Chambliss’ to lose.. but that prediction gets upended, I think, with an Obama upset.

What do you think?

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Where They’re Headed in the Final Stretch

Mon/9:39am

From the AP: “UNDATED (AP) - As if today’s fever-pitch campaigning weren’t enough, the presidential candidates will break tradition and stump on Election Day. John McCain goes to Colorado and New Mexico. Barack Obama swings through Indiana before returning to Chicago. McCain rallied Latino voters just after midnight in Miami. Later this morning, he takes his message to Tampa, then to Tennessee, where he’ll be able to hit the Virginia media market. Pennsylvania, Indiana, New Mexico, Nevada and Arizona also will see McCain. Running mate Sarah Palin is trying to woo conservatives in Ohio, Missouri, Iowa, Colorado and Nevada. Obama’s route is geographically less demanding. He rallies this morning in Jacksonville, Fla., and later goes to Virginia and North Carolina. His running mate, Joe Biden, is going to Missouri, Ohio and Pennsylvania. Polls show the six closest states are Florida, Indiana, Missouri, North Carolina, Nevada and Ohio. The campaigns also are running aggressive ground games elsewhere, including Iowa, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Colorado and Virginia.”

Tennessee? Yes, McCain will be in Blountville. Read more here.

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What’s Gonna Happen?

Mon/9:32am

Click here for a post I added featuring questions for an election night pool that I’m taking part in.

Feel free to register your predictions in the comments section!

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When Polls Close Tomorrow

Mon/8:43am

Courtesy of the Huffington Post

This all gets tossed out the window if lines are long.. which may be why we may not know results of the states on that map until well after the polls are supposed to close..

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Click here to view the embedded video.

Joe the Plumber Questions Obama’s Patriotism

Mon/8:42am

Above: Joe the Plumber on the Fox News Channel over the weekend.

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Click here to view the embedded video.

Palin “Punk’d”

Mon/8:38am

Above: two Canadian comedians fool Palin into thinking she’s talking to the President of France.

. Click here to view the embedded video.

That’s a New One

Mon/8:35am

Above: South Carolina Senator Lindsay Graham, saying the polls demonstrate Barack Obama is “the virtual incumbent,” & thus can’t win in this environment that’s hungry for change.

. Click here to view the embedded video.

New Anti-Biden Ad: “Lies & Sighs”

Mon/8:28am

This ad is effective, but made slightly less so by the misspelling on the screen, 0:56 seconds in:

. Click here to view the embedded video.

Pennsylvania Republicans Bring Up Wright in New Ad

Mon/8:20am

(Warning: blasphemous language)

Why is Pennsylvania such a battleground? Voters don’t vote early there.

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Obamacan Update

Mon/8:13am

Roger Cohen:

“Lifelong Republicans turning to Obama has been one of the themes I’ve picked up in this campaign, ever since, back in January, I ran into Bryant Jones, an Idaho-raised Republican who’d volunteered for Obama in South Carolina.For Jones, it was disenchantment with “my-way-or-the-highway politics and the same old faces.””

“My-way-or-the-highway” politics. That’s a major reason President Bush was such a failure (read more of my thoughts on that here, in yesterday’s post). & I hope that both Democrats and Republicans heed the lesson in this: no matter who is president - but particularly if a President Obama finds himself with a Democratic majority in Congress - we can’t afford to discount a person’s idea because they aren’t a member of the right party. Obama will fall, & fall hard if he tries this. This is the singular reason President Bush did such a bad job - all recent presidents from all recent parties recognized they’d never succeed by paying attention to the needs of just one constituency. UPDATE: Mon/10:23am: More Obamacans explain themselves here & here. .

Why a McCain Win Would Be a Good Thing for Liberals

Mon/8:09am

The conservative New York Times columnist (who bears quite a bit of responsibility for bringing Sarah Palin to the world, not to mention the Iraq war) writes liberals should think the world has ended if John McCain wins, for reasons including:

“It would be a victory for an underdog. Liberals are supposed to like underdogs. McCain is a lonely guy standing up against an unprecedentedly well-financed, superorganized, ExxonMobil-like Obama juggernaut. A McCain upset victory would be a classic liberal happy ending.”

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Why She’s Failed to Catch Fire

Mon/8:02am

Of course she’s caught fire among members of the Republican base. But she’s certainly not winning over independents or moderate Republicans (scroll down for a new poll for more on that).

Peter Beinart suggests it may be that her appearance came at the end of the ‘Culture War:”

“Why has America turned on Sarah Palin? Obviously, her wobbly television interviews haven’t helped. Nor have the drip, drip of scandals from Alaska, which have tarnished her reformist image. But Palin’s problems run deeper, and they say something fundamental about the political age being born. Palin’s brand is culture war, and in America today culture war no longer sells. The struggle that began in the 1960s — which put questions of racial, sexual and religious identity at the forefront of American politics — may be ending. Palin is the end of the line.” .

Strategic Strengths & Weaknesses

Mon/7:57am

Great summary of what went right for Obama & wrong for McCain from E.J. Dionne:

ON McCAIN:

“In state after state during the primaries, McCain drew heavily on the votes of independents, moderates and Republicans who were unhappy with Bush. But instead of carrying on as the un-Bush who defied conservative orthodoxy, McCain embraced the right for fear of losing it. He chose Sarah Palin as his running mate, which finally earned him cries of approval from the GOP base but sent moderate voters scurrying Obama’s way.”"

ON OBAMA:

“He saw an opening for a young African American senator with brief Washington experience, realizing that the very unlikeliness of his candidacy would enhance its attractiveness.

He did more than give Americans a chance to ease the burdens of race. He invited them to embrace his very newness and thereby move past the 1960s, the ’80s, the ’90s and the Bush era all at once. “It’s time to turn the page,” Obama would say, and there were many pages Americans wanted to turn.

His post-everything candidacy, wrapped in a powerful rhetoric of hope, was immensely attractive to the young. They became the happy warriors of campaign manager David Plouffe’s meticulously organized national machine. It worked its magic in neighborhoods never before blessed with even a precinct captain.”

Pretty much the race, in a nutshell.

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ABC Poll: He’s a Net Positive, She’s a Net Negative

Mon/7:53am

From the Washington Post:

Respondents’ reactions to Sarah Palin, the GOP vice presidential nominee, are also closely linked to how much they factor age into their preferences: Sixty percent of those who said age is an important consideration said Palin lowers the odds that they will vote for the GOP ticket. Overall, nearly half of all respondents said they are less likely to vote for McCain because she is on the ticket, a sharp increase from previous polls.

By contrast, Sen. Joseph R. Biden Jr. is a net positive for Obama, even as nearly six in 10 respondents said the senator from Delaware does not influence their views one way or the other.

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ABC Poll: McCain’s ‘Socialist’ Attacks Aren’t Sticking

Mon/7:50am

From the Washington Post:

The new Washington Post-ABC News tracking poll puts Obama well out in front over Republican John McCain and finds that Obama has firmly reestablished his advantage on handling the economy, beaten back a challenge on taxes and has an edge in terms of perceptions about which candidate would better deal with an unexpected major crisis.

The McCain campaign, meanwhile, has countered with improved outreach into the tossup states, neutralizing what had been a big advantage for the Democrat 10 days ago. More than a third of all voters in the six states The Post calls “up for grabs” — Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Montana, Missouri and Indiana — said they have heard from the McCain campaign in the past week. That is up sharply from the third week of October and on par with the number who have been contacted by Obama’s campaign.

Obama and McCain roughly split the vote in the six states combined — 51 percent back Obama, and 47 percent support McCain. Overall in the tracking poll, Obama holds an 11-point advantage, at the top end of the seven-to-11-point range he has held since the final presidential debate in mid-October.”

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Live from New York

Mon/7:39am:

Watch McCain’s funny Saturday Night Live appearance here. Check this Vote08 post to see a clip of an earlier SNL McCain appearance (he sings Streisand!).

UPDATE/Mon-10:09am

James Fallows says this SNL appearance shows that McCain has accepted defeat.

Post from: The Blog Formerly Known As Vote '08

Urging Conservatives to Eat Their Peas

All the way back on February 8th, long before he had the nomination wrapped up, I made a case to conservatives that John McCain was the only GOP candidate that had a shot at the White House this year.

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Fantasy BBQ

Click here for a photo montage of our daydream about attending a BBQ with all of this year’s presidential candidates.

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The Platters That Matter

Click here for a Vote08 post of Obama & McCain’s top 10 favorite songs, with accompanying videos for each.

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Whom Would Fonzie Vote For?

Click here for my musings on how not just the Fonz but the entire Happy Days cast would choose for president in 2008.

Post from: The Blog Formerly Known As Vote '08

As promised, here’s another look at a post we did back in April. A website altered photos of the candidates to show what they would look like after four years in office. & naturally, the results were not pretty:

Click on the link above to see how the years have treated George W. Bush - & see the same treatment on Hillary Clinton.

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While We’re On the Topic of Being Scared…

Read ‘Obama, Clinton & McCain Join Forces’ (May 21st) here.

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Their Superstitious Streak

Lucky charms galore grace the pockets of both Obama & McCain, & both men have quite a few superstitions.

Read this post from this year’s Friday the Thirteenth to find out more.

Post from: The Blog Formerly Known As Vote '08

Just 5 Days to Go!

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***Reminder: TODAY’s your LAST DAY to vote early in Tennessee & FRIDAY is your LAST DAY to vote early in Georgia!***

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Straddling the Eras of Slavery & Black Presidential Candidates

Above: 109 year old Texas resident Amanda Jones, daughter of a slave, who just cast her vote for Barack Obama for President.

Regardless of whom you hope will win the White House, this truly is an amazing achievement for our country.

Obama in the Sunshine State

[scroll down to see Biden, McCain & Palin]

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Are Late-Undecided Voters McCain’s ‘Lifeboat?’

Dick Morris thinks the answer is yes.

Nate Silver thinks the answer is no.

This article takes a look at last-week undecided trends from past elections.

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Palin Stumps in Rush’s Hometown

..that would be Cape Girardeau, Missouri. Scroll down to see McCain in Ohio.

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Biden, Like Palin, in the Show-Me State

[Scroll down to see Sarah Palin & John McCain.]

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Can He Keep His Mouth Shut Until Tuesday?

The Politico weighs the pros & cons of Biden’s contributions to the campaign trail.

Also: the Obama campaign tries to clarify Biden’s “mark my words” comment in a new ad:

Click here to view the embedded video.

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Racism Knows No Party

Read examples of racism from the left this election season here.

But whatever you do, don’t pigeonhole rednecks:

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TR’s a Socialist!!!

Read a letter to the New York Times from 1908 that brands McCain’s favorite president with his current favorite perjorative for his opponent.

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Pro-McCain Robocalls Now Hitting Homes in…Arizona

Read more about it here.

Is McCain really in that much trouble in his home state? Check the average of polls here. The Obama camp claims their internal polls are tightening.

Personally, I don’t think he’s going to lose his home state. But it may be the ultimate margin of victory that McCain’s trying to manipulate.

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McCain Ad: He’s Not Ready…Yet

What’s with the “yet” in this ad? Bob Cesca has a theory.

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Is Palin Looking Down the Road to 2012?

It would appear so, based on the clip above. A loss will have the conventional wisdom coronating her as the 2012 front-runner. However, there may be a few in the GOP who have been holding their tongues until after the ballots have been cast.

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Pizza Politics

From Domino’s Pizza, via Marc Ambinder. I sent this out to the newsroom & got a funny response from operations engineer John Creel, whose text below is in red:

Republicans

— Spend more per order than other consumers.

(*WITH THE OIL MONEY PROFITS WE CAN SPEND MORE.)

— They rely on credit cards to pay more than other consumers.

(*DOESN’T EVERYBODY’S HAVE A AMERICAN EXPRESS GOLD CARD.)

– They tend to order two large pizzas at a time, and they’re usually
specialty pizzas.

(*EVERYTHING WORTH HAVING COMES IN 2′S. WE ALL GOTTA PAIR DON’T WE.)
– They are more likely to order online, and more likely to pick up their
orders.

(*LIMOS ARE GREAT FOR PICKING UP PIZZAS, ESPECIALLY WHEN LOBBYIST ARE
BUYING.)

Democrats

— Rely on delivery more than Republicans.

(*DELIVERY BOY IS A JUST A GUY TRYING TO MAKE A BUCK. WE’RE SPREADING THE WEALTH WITH HIM.)

– Pay cash more than other consumers.

(*CREDIT CARDS LEAVE A PAPER TRAIL TO FOLLOW. WE DON’T LIKE ANYTHING TRACEABLE BACK TO US.)

– Like more variety with their orders, opting for side items, chicken and
beverages more than Republicans.

(*WE LIKE OUR PIZZA LIKE OUR POLITICS … LOTS OF VARIETY.)

(*REPUBLICANS CALL THE SIDE ITEMS PORK, BUT WE PUT THEM ON OUR
CONGRESSIONAL BILLS AND VOTERS LOVE THEM.)

Funny stuff, John! Thanks!

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‘Joe’ a No-Show

Oops. Maybe he was recording his album?

More from McCain’ speech in Defiance, Ohio:

Click here to view the embedded video.

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North Carolina Senate Race Gets Ugly

The ad above may be remembered as one of the worst in the country for the year 2008. It’s also a sign of how much trouble Elizabeth Dole finds herself in. The worst part about the ad is the woman saying “there is no God” at the end which is NOT Kay Hagan, Dole’s opponent. No politician who has integrity - on either side of the aisle - would do something like that.

…but how much of the ad is true? Click here for a fact-check.

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Georgia Senate Race Called a ”Tossup”

Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight.com speculates on the spellbinding Georgia Senate race:

“Very quick observation about Georgia’s senate race, which along with California’s Proposition 8, may be the thing to watch on Election Night in the event of an Obama blowout. The polls, from what I can tell, are showing a fairly high undecided vote among the African-American population. Rasmussen’s most recent poll, which had Saxby Chambliss up by two, shows that 12 percent of black voters are undecided in the senate race. Were those voters to split 4:1 to Jim Martin, that would be worth a net of around 2 points to him, making the race a tie. SurveyUSA, likewise, shows a higher rate of undecideds among black voters (7%) than among whites (3%).

Related thought: it’s very difficult to imagine what a Chambliss-Obama voter looks like. It’s pretty easy to imagine what a McCain-Martin voter looks like. So if the Georgia polls have Obama down by 4 or 5 points, but Martin down by 2 or 3 points (as they do), something doesn’t quite seem right; I’d think the gap should be a bit wider.

Basically, I think this race is a true toss-up rather than a Lean R. African-American voters might be unfamiliar with Jim Martin, who didn’t become the nominee until August, but the ‘D’ beside his name is worth a lot..”
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Local Early Voting Report

Above: at long last, the folks at Freedom Blogging have finally enabled me to post videos from NewsChannel9.com here. Above: NewsChannel9’s Erica Green has an early voting report.

The Hamilton County Election Commission says as of Wednesday, 61576 people have voted early.

Reminder: TODAY’s your LAST DAY to vote early in Tennessee & FRIDAY is your LAST DAY to vote early in Georgia!

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McCain Matching Obama in Battleground State Ad Buys

From the Boston Globe:

“Ad spending and ad placement data obtained from Democratic and Republican operatives show that in the closing days of the campaign the Republican voice has grown louder in states such as Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Virginia and Pennsylvania.

For instance, Obama had been scheduled to buy about $2.5 million in Florida ads for the last week of the campaign. McCain is now set to spend about $1.6 million and the Republican National Committee added $1.5 million to their buy in the state this week. Obama appears to have added more weight to his ads since.”

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New Battleground State Polls

From Time magazine:

Pennsylvania: Obama 55, McCain 43
North Carolina: Obama 52, McCain 46
Nevada: Obama 52, McCain 45
Ohio: Obama 51, McCain 47
Arizona: McCain 53, Obama 46

Find out more info, including male/female & making over $50K/under $50K preferences here.

How about those Arizona numbers? Here’s another one, from NBC, that’s no doubt making McCain nervous. [Remember, Al Gore infamously lost his home state in 2000.]

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What Obama’s ‘Infomercial‘ Reminded Me Of Most

Think about it: what ad since 1984 can that infomercial compare to, besides this one?

Nate Silver adds:

“Discuss: all else being equal, the most optimistic candidate wins the election. And that’s definitely the mood that Obama is going for with this thing.”

I also would point out that not mentioning John McCain or President Bush was stroke of genius. It makes it harder for the right to criticize the ad because of this.

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Whoops:

Above: a screen grab from Fox News yesterday.

This is not the first time Fox’s graphics department has gotten it wrong.

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Campaign Quiz Time

Test your 2008 campaign knowledge here, & answer questions that include

2. Which one of these statements did Barack Obama make while campaigning?

A) “I’ve now been in 57 states. I think one left to go.”

B) “Most of all, I believe in you, Nebraska. Or South Dakota. Or wherever I am.”

C) “We’ve come so far since we began this campaign 21 years ago.”

Here’s a trivia question I’d add: which two presidential candidates stopped in Chattanooga during the primary season? (answer here)

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[below: the latest writings about the state of the conservative movement, as expressed by conservatives]

George Will:

From the invasion of Iraq to the selection of Sarah Palin, carelessness has characterized recent episodes of faux conservatism. Tuesday’s probable repudiation of the Republican Party will punish characteristics displayed in the campaign’s closing days.

Some polls show that Palin has become an even heavier weight in John McCain’s saddle than his association with George W. Bush. Did McCain, who seems to think that Palin’s never having attended a “Georgetown cocktail party” is sufficient qualification for the vice presidency, lift an eyebrow when she said that vice presidents “are in charge of the United States Senate”?

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Bill & Barack

Click here to view the embedded video.

Above: Bill Clinton & Barack Obama, together on stage for the first time, last night after the ‘infomercial‘ aired.

Post from: The Blog Formerly Known As Vote '08

Click here to view the embedded video.

Above: “I Am Joe,” a new supporter-submitted video campaign that you can see at the John McCain website blog. Click here for more, & watch a clip from Nashville after the jump.

Also: A Palin lookalike standing behind McCain pretends she’s Palin…Bill Kristol says it’s time for McCain to make his case…what would Teddy Roosevelt say about McCain?

Here’s a homemade clip from Nashville:

Click here to view the embedded video.

Click here to view the embedded video.

Funny, above: watch the woman on the right. Does she think she’s Sarah Palin? Looks like it.

Charge!

Bill Kristol:

“Situation not-so-excellent. Time for McCain to attack — or, rather, finally to make his case.

…

McCain could point out that hope is nice and prayer is good. But, he could ask: With respect to our national security, do we really want to elect a president on a hope and a prayer?

That has to be the substantive core of his closing argument. But style and tone matter, too. Last week’s New York Times/CBS News poll showed 64 percent of voters saying McCain is spending more time attacking the other candidate than explaining what he would do as president. Just 22 percent say the same of Obama.

When you’re in a hole, stop digging. McCain could order his campaign to pull all negative ads, mailers and robocalls.

For that matter, he might as well muzzle the campaign.”

What’s TR’s Take?

What John McCain & I have in common: We both consider Theodore Roosevelt one of the nation’s best-ever presidents.

The New York Times takes some editorial liberties with actual recorded statements of the 26th President to offer commentary about the current race (click here for TR’s ‘take’ on Obama):

“Q. I hope that doesn’t include the pair running for the presidency! What do you think of Senator John McCain? He often cites you as a role model.

A. He is evidently a man who takes color from his surroundings.

Q. Weren’t you just as unpredictable in your time?

A. (laughing) They say that nothing is as independent as a hog on ice. If he doesn’t want to stand up, he can lie down.

Q. Mr. McCain has always prided himself on his independence. At least, until he began to take direction from chief executives and retired generals —

A. But the signs now are that these advisers have themselves awakened to the fact that they have almost ruined him.

…

Q. Talking of foreign policy, what do you think of Mr. McCain’s choice of a female running mate?

A. Times have changed (sigh). It is entirely inexcusable, however, to try to combine the unready hand with the unbridled tongue.

Q. How will you feel if Sarah Palin is elected?

A. I shall feel exactly the way a very small frog looks when it swallows a beetle the size of itself, with extremely stiff legs.

…

Q. One last question, Colonel. If you were campaigning now, would you still call yourself a Republican?

A. (after a long pause) No.

Post from: The Blog Formerly Known As Vote '08

Today’s Episode: Biden warns of a coming international crisis for the next president…Julia Louis-Dreyfuss goes “in the tank” for Biden…whether Biden is a “Mr. August,” “Mr. October” or a “Mr. January…

Warning of “Crisis”

From MSNBC’s First Read:

“Attracting the most attention this morning was his prediction on Sunday that within six months of his administration, Obama would be tested just as John F. Kennedy was.

“Watch, we’re gonna have an international crisis, a generated crisis, to test the mettle of this guy,” Biden said. “And he’s gonna have to make some really tough — I don’t know what the decision’s gonna be, but I promise you it will occur. As a student of history and having served with seven presidents, I guarantee you, it’s gonna happen.”

The McCain campaign has pounced on the statement as Biden perhaps implying that Obama could not handle a crisis alone. The Obama campaign disagrees, however, saying Biden just “referenced the simple fact that history shows Presidents face challenges from day one.”

And they emphasize the larger context of Biden’s statement, that the nation would be “in the right hands” with Obama. The help Biden was calling for was as support for Obama would have to make “sound,” though likely unpopular decisions.

“Be prepared to stick with us,” he said. “Remember the faith you had at this point because you’re going to have to reinforce us.”

It is noteworthy, though, how similar Biden’s comments were to a statement in June by McCain supporter Joe Lieberman, one that was strongly criticized by Obama supporters.

“Our enemies will test the new president early,” Lieberman said on “Face the Nation.” “Remember that the truck bombing of the World Trade Center happened in the first year of the Clinton administration. 9/11 happened in the first year of the Bush administration.”

Biden’s assessment would seem in line with Lieberman’s, but rather than evoking the potential for a crisis as evidence Obama was not ready, Biden raised the notion to argue precisely the opposite.

Julia Louis-Dreyfuss “In the Tank” for Biden

Above: from yesterday’s Ellen Degeneres show. This was a fundraiser for breast cancer research.

A ‘January Pick’

From Ryan Lizza’s recent New Yorker piece called “Biden’s Brief::

In 2004, when John Kerry was conducting his search for a running mate, he divided his options into three groups, based on the electoral calendar. “Kerry said you can pick either a Mr. August, a Mr. October, or a Mr. January,” David Wade, who was Kerry’s press secretary at the time and is now serving in that role for Biden, told me. “In a perfect world, you have someone who is all three.”

By Kerry’s logic, Sarah Palin, the Alaska governor, whom John McCain named as his running mate, was an August pick, a choice made by a candidate who was falling behind and needed to re-start his campaign at his nominating Convention. An August pick can also help unite a party after a divisive primary. An October pick, too, tends to be political—someone with strong, even strident campaign skills, who might help to carry a state or a demographic group. Kerry’s choice—John Edwards—may have fallen into that category.

August and October picks have become something of an anachronism, and in that way Palin is a throwback to an era when Vice-Presidents were chosen by party professionals, strictly for electoral reasons. In office, they had little influence; sometimes, at the whim of the President or out of political expedience, they were dumped from the ticket. Abraham Lincoln dumped Hannibal Hamlin for Andrew Johnson in 1864, and F.D.R. got rid of John Nance Garner in 1940 and Henry Wallace in 1944 (replacing him with Harry Truman).

Probably the greatest failure in the job since the Second World War was Spiro Agnew—the relatively unknown governor of a small state, Maryland, with no experience of Washington. It is hard to avoid comparing Agnew’s qualifications with Palin’s, despite all the talk about her “maverick” spirit, her role as the first female on a Republican national ticket, and her presumed appeal not only to the “base” but to disaffected Hillary Clinton voters. Like McCain, Nixon picked someone he knew would surprise people. Like Palin, Agnew was unleashed to attack the élites of his day and the press—“an effete corps of impudent snobs.”

Every Presidential candidate professes to want someone with the ability to help govern the country, and, in fact, the January running mate has become more common. Not surprisingly, the most powerful modern Vice-Presidents have been politicians who had congressional experience and long Washington résumés—Walter Mondale, George H. W. Bush, Al Gore, and Dick Cheney. The January pick has increasingly become a good October choice, too. In recent elections, running mates chosen more for political reasons have fared less well than veterans.

In 2000, Joe Lieberman, who had outspokenly criticized Bill Clinton’s affair with Monica Lewinsky, and was selected in large part to help Al Gore distance himself from the Clinton sex scandal, was not a great help for Gore.

Edwards, in 2004, was chosen partly for his campaign skills, though Kerry had reportedly wanted the more stolid Dick Gephardt, the former House Majority Leader, and was deeply disappointed at his performance on the trail and in his debate with Dick Cheney. There was certainly an initial burst of enthusiasm for Palin, and large crowds continue to attend her rallies, but she is popular mostly with an increasingly angry and frustrated Republican base and has been unable to stall McCain’s steep descent in the polls; sixty per cent of the public believes that she is not qualified to be President.”

Read the full article here.

Post from: The Blog Formerly Known As Vote '08

Person#1: Yet another ND poll has it tied. That’s two +3 Obs and one dead heat. ‘

Person#2: Did you know ND has the highest number of millionaires per capita in the US?

Person#1: That’s a good bar question.

Person#3: I for one am sick to death of these North Dakota elitists telling hard-working people like me what to think.

Post from: The Blog Formerly Known As Vote '08

She appeared on Saturday Night Live on Saturday. Read about it here & watch the clips here & here. Money quote: “That’s not how I would do a press conference.” Oh, really? Why not prove your point?

Palin does seem to be chomping at the bit to speak to the media, despite the best efforts of her staff to keep that from happening. Read more about it here.

Over the weekend Palin gave an interview to David Brody, whom I consider the best journalist at the Christian Broadcasting Network. Go to David Brody’s blog here for clips of that interview.

Post from: The Blog Formerly Known As Vote '08

Endorsed by the Reform Party & NASCAR legend Richard Petty.

Click here to view the embedded video.

McCain returned to the David Letterman show last night. This after he cancelled an appearance last month. McCain encountered air traffic gridlock in Philly yesterday & rented a helicopter to make sure he reached the Letterman show on time.

Like Obama, McCain cracked wise at the Al Smith Memorial Dinner last night:

Click here to view the embedded video.

Click here to view the embedded video.

Joe the Plumber in New McCain Ad

Latest GA Poll Has McCain Up By 6

Read about it here.

The same poll has Saxby Chambliss leading by 2.

Post from: The Blog Formerly Known As Vote '08

Endorsed by the Washington Post & the New Yorker.

He appeared (like McCain) last night at the Al Smith Memorial Dinner in Manhattan to crack wise:

Click here to view the embedded video.

Click here to view the embedded video.

New Ad: “It Gets Worse”

Post from: The Blog Formerly Known As Vote '08