The Blog Formerly Known As Vote '08

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How did I think it went? See how much my predictions & advice played out after the jump.

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I recognize the fact that a lot of you are focussed on the economy; as you should be.

But I also hope you make your choice based on how your candidate wants to take us out of the foreign policy ditch we find ourselves in.

To that end, I thought Defense Secretary Robert Gates had some excellent points to make in a recent speech at the National Defense University.

Please read this, & think carefully about it (particularly the last ‘graph):

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(ABOVE: The Beatles’ ‘Think for Yourself,’ from Revolver)

A fantastic piece of advice from Judd Legum on how to handle what all the post-debate pundits who will declare who “won” or who “lost:”

Ignore them.

1. 30 seconds are more important than 90 minutes. Although tens of millions of people will watch the debate, most everyone will forget the bulk of it immediately. The lasting impression of the debate for most voters will be the two or three exchanges — usually less than 15 seconds long — that are replayed, discussed, and analyzed over and over again. More often than not, whoever gets the best of these moments wins the debate.

…

2. Mistakes matter, but only some of them. Probably the worst mistake in the Democratic primary debates was Hillary’s famous non-answer to a question about drivers licenses for undocumented immigrants. But it wasn’t a big mistake because people care deeply about the issue. (When is the last time you’ve heard driver’s licenses mentioned on the campaign trail?) It was important because it fit into a pre-exisiting narrative about Hillary that had been developed by her opponents for some time. Namely, that Hillary is politically calculating and dishonest. Since it reinforced a pre-exisiting narrative it caused Hillary immense damage and sent the campaign into a tailspin from which it never fully recovered.

3. It is a popularity contest. At the end of the day these candidates are trying to get voters to like them. As a result, in many instances, what the candidates say is far less important than how they say it.

…

The person who is the most relaxed and getting some laughs is usually the winner.

With all due respect to my network, here’s what I recommend for you:

Once you are finished watching the debate, skip the analysis & turn off the TV!

Draw your own conclusions!

And?/Well?/So?

What did you think?

Someone won the debate by 52.5%.

Which one do you think did?

I’d love to hear what you have to say!

Post a comment!

All views are welcome!

Just in:

WASHINGTON (AP) - Congressional Republicans and Democrats report agreement in principle on financial bailout.

So.. the debate’s back on now?

What about this afternoon’s meeting at the White House?

Stay tuned!

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I’ve found two pieces advising each candidate. Both are worth reading:

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Ahh… simpler times.

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From Glen Johnson of the AP:

VIENNA, Ohio (AP) — John McCain embraces and expels Washington like an accordion player belting out a song.

Squeeze in and he touts his vast knowledge of the capital city. Draw out and he casts himself a reformer bent on changing its ways.

It’s a remarkable dichotomy echoed throughout the Republican establishment, as a party that’s held the White House for the past eight years tries to retain its grip in what has shaped up as a change election.

None other than the current president’s brother has shown the GOP’s willingness to deny the past as it looks to the future.

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What is truth?

Do you care at all about whether or not a candidate tells the truth in their campaign ads?

Or repeats a lie on the stump?

Should the media just pipe down & not worry about telling the public when a candidate is stretching the truth?

Does ‘truth’ only matter when it’s the other side that distorts it?

Do we in the media still matter to you?

What do you think our job should be in this campaign?

No, seriously, I’m wondering exactly what your answer to that question is.

Please tell me - especially if you disagree with what Karl Rove says in the 2nd clip of this post.

Well, here’s further proof that you will not see much of any of the candidates in the NewsChannel 9 viewing area between now & November 4th:

ATLANTA (AP) - The Democratic presidential campaign of Barack Obama is shifting personnel out of Georgia into more competitive states such as North Carolina.
Staffers confirmed the movement of resources on Tuesday. The move comes nearly three weeks after the Obama campaign dropped its TV ads in Georgia.
Campaign officials declined to say how many of some 75 paid Obama staffers will be redeployed and denied that the move signals reduced expectations in the state.
Caroline Adelman, spokeswoman for the Obama campaign in Georgia, says voter registration drives will continue. She says two new campaign offices will be opened this week in south DeKalb County and Savannah.

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Take a gander at the latest Georgia polls here.

As I said here, this means

1) you will not see a lot of political ads (other than local candidates, such as those for Georgia Senator Saxby Chambliss) on the NewsChannel 9 airwaves, &

2) NewsChannel 9 will not see an increase in revenue because of those ads.

You never know, though - I could be wrong! I sure hope I am.

What do you think?

From Answers.com:

It was all the fault, or the bright idea, of Samuel Augustus Maverick, who lived from 1803 to 1870. Descended from an old and notable New England family, he sought his fortune in Texas and there inadvertently made a name for himself. He took up cattle ranching, which was quite a different proposition from raising livestock back East. In Texas cattle grazed on the open range, without fences to keep one herd separate from another, and thus there was much opportunity for theft and disputes over ownership. To identify their cattle, ranchers branded them, rounding up the calves each year for this purpose.

[photograph of somewhere-in-Missouri cows by my father, 1976]

But Maverick put no brand on his cattle. Stories about “old man Maverick” give various reasons for his abstinence: he was lazy; he objected to the cruelty of branding. Whatever the reason, if he had been an ordinary citizen, this practice would have put him at the mercy of other ranchers, who would have appropriated his cattle and marked them with their own brands. But Maverick was influential: mayor of San Antonio, member of the Texas legislature, and holder of 385,000 acres, he was able instead to claim that any unbranded calf was his. And so, either in earnest or in jest, the name maverick was applied to all cattle without brands. In 1867 a writer complained, “The term maverick which was formerly applied to unbranded yearlings is now applied to every calf which can be separated from the mother cow–the consequence is, the fastest brander are accumulating the largest stocks.”

It was too good a word to leave to the cattle. What better word to use for a politician who was “unbranded” by a party label, not “owned” by special interests? In 1886 a San Francisco publication called the California Maverick defined it: “He holds maverick views” means “his views were untainted by partisanship.” A Massachusetts politician declared in 1905, “I am running as a maverick; I have no man’s brand upon me.” Maverick accords with our American inclination to admire someone who goes his or her own way. A loner (1947) may be loony, but a maverick is an independent thinker.

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Image by Matthew Brunson, NewsChannel9 director. [Please ask permission before posting elsewhere.]

Who is Sarah Palin?

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(for optimal viewing, play speech & Helen Reddy song simultaneously)

Well, there, Hillary supporters. Do you feel better now? Did you get the closure needed to move on from the primary campaign?

FOR OBAMA SUPPORTERS:

It was good that she failed to give any hint that she has her eyes on 2012, or is hoping/thinking that Obama can’t win.

It was not good that the camera kept cutting away to Bill Clinton, who oftentimes conveyed with his eyes the fact that he wishes she were the one accepting the nomination this week.

It was good that she levelled an attack on John McCain, & put in perspective the stark choices the two candidates represent.

It was not good that she failed to repudiate the things that she said during the primary campaign that John McCain is using in current attack ads against Obama.

& finally it’s not good that despite this speech, many Clinton supporters remain divided about what to do next.

FOR CLINTON SUPPORTERS:

It was good that she had her day in the sun & got the recognition she deserved for earning 18 million votes during the primary season, & did so with a speech that’s generally considered to be a winner.

It was not good for die-hard supporters that she is urging them to switch allegiances with a full throat.

It was good that she mentioned 1848 in Seneca Falls, made allusions to Harriet Tubman, & the line “my mother was born into a country that didn’t allow her to vote & my daughter was able to vote for her mother for president” (though, perhaps for time reasons, she let the crowd step on that great line with applause).

It was not good that it became undeniably clear that a candidate like her will not be on the presidential campaign circuit for years go come.

FOR McCAIN SUPPORTERS:

It was good that her speech did not have any lines in it that demonstrated why Barack Obama would make a good commander-in-chief.

It was not good that the speech, designed more for the white voters in Michigan, Pennsylvania & Ohio, will convince more voters than not that voting for McCain would be a bad idea.

In some ways, it was good that she’s not the Democratic presidential nominee.

That’s my take. What’s yours?

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(Above: Barack Obama introduces Biden in Springfield, Illinois on Saturday.

Below: Joe Biden’s speech)

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(above ‘”Biden” My Time’ by George Gershwin, sung by Judy Garland in 1943’s “Girl Crazy.” Play in conjunction with Biden’s speech above for added effect.)

From ABC News:

Barack Obama has made his vice presidential pick: the first term Senator will tap his more experienced colleague, Sen. Joe Biden, D-Del., to join the Democratic ticket.

Biden, 65, brings immediate heft and foreign policy credentials to a ticket topped by the 47-year-old Obama. The Delaware Democrat first won his job in the Senate over 35 years ago — when Obama was only 11 — and has been reelected five times.

…

And though Delaware and the state’s three electoral votes are reliably Democratic, Biden brings vast national political experience to the table.

Read Joe Biden’s Wikipedia entry here.

A few thoughts:

1. If there was any doubt left that geography is off the table as a factor in making a veep selection (a premise that essentially died with the selection of Wyoming’s Dick Cheney in 2000), it is now gone.

2. Speaking of Cheney, this pick is one that is symbolically closer to George Bush’s VP than Kerry’s selection of Edwards, Gore’s selection of Lieberman, or Clinton’s selection of Gore. Biden fills in a lot of “holes” Obama has.

3. The Delaware senator has sometimes been a victim of “foot in mouth” disease (he called Obama “clean” & “articulate” on the campaign trail earlier this year — something you’ll hear a lot more of in the coming days). Thus Obama’s taking a risk by picking him.

4. Biden is an attack dog, very passionate about issues he cares about, & he was clearly chosen partly for this reason. His June 22nd Meet the Press appearance (watch below) was apparently his audition tape:

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5. In addition to foreign policy experience, Biden has a son who has served in Iraq.

6. Another risk, & one that had me discounting Biden altogether: like Obama, he’s a United States Senator.

The last time two (sitting) Senators were on a presidential ticket? Kerry-Edwards, last time around.

Before that?

George McGovern & Thomas Eagleton, 1972 [the ticket was short lived, after word got out that Eagleton had received psychiatric treatment].

The last 2-Senator ticket that voters sent to the White House was Kennedy-Johnson, in 1960, & Kennedy was the last Senator elected president.

THE CASE FOR BIDEN, by David Brooks (conservative) of the New York Times:

Barack Obama has decided upon a vice-presidential running mate. And while I don’t know who it is as I write, for the good of the country, I hope he picked Joe Biden.

Biden’s weaknesses are on the surface. He has said a number of idiotic things over the years and, in the days following his selection, those snippets would be aired again and again.

But that won’t hurt all that much because voters are smart enough to forgive the genuine flaws of genuine people. And over the long haul, Biden provides what Obama needs:

Working-Class Roots. Biden is a lunch-bucket Democrat. His father was rich when he was young — played polo, cavorted on yachts, drove luxury cars. But through a series of bad personal and business decisions, he was broke by the time Joe Jr. came along. They lived with their in-laws in Scranton, Pa., then moved to a dingy working-class area in Wilmington, Del. At one point, the elder Biden cleaned boilers during the week and sold pennants and knickknacks at a farmer’s market on the weekends.

His son was raised with a fierce working-class pride — no one is better than anyone else. Once, when Joe Sr. was working for a car dealership, the owner threw a Christmas party for the staff. Just as the dancing was to begin, the owner scattered silver dollars on the floor and watched from above as the mechanics and salesmen scrambled about for them. Joe Sr. quit that job on the spot.

Even today, after serving for decades in the world’s most pompous workplace, Senator Biden retains an ostentatiously unpretentious manner. He campaigns with an army of Bidens who seem to emerge by the dozens from the old neighborhood in Scranton. He has disdain for privilege and for limousine liberals — the mark of an honest, working-class Democrat.

Democrats in general, and Obama in particular, have trouble connecting with working-class voters, especially Catholic ones. Biden would be the bridge.

Honesty. Biden’s most notorious feature is his mouth. But in his youth, he had a stutter. As a freshman in high school he was exempted from public speaking because of his disability, and was ridiculed by teachers and peers. His nickname was Dash, because of his inability to finish a sentence.

He developed an odd smile as a way to relax his facial muscles (it still shows up while he’s speaking today) and he’s spent his adulthood making up for any comments that may have gone unmade during his youth.

Today, Biden’s conversational style is tiresome to some, but it has one outstanding feature. He is direct. No matter who you are, he tells you exactly what he thinks, before he tells it to you a second, third and fourth time.

Presidents need someone who will be relentlessly direct. Obama, who attracts worshippers, not just staff members, needs that more than most.

Loyalty. Just after Biden was elected to the senate in 1972, his wife, Neilia, and daughter Naomi were killed in a car crash. His career has also been marked by lesser crises. His first presidential run ended in a plagiarism scandal. He nearly died of a brain aneurism.

New administrations are dominated by the young and the arrogant, and benefit from the presence of those who have been through the worst and who have a tinge of perspective. Moreover, there are moments when a president has to go into the cabinet room and announce a decision that nearly everyone else on his team disagrees with. In those moments, he needs a vice president who will provide absolute support. That sort of loyalty comes easiest to people who have been down themselves, and who had to rely on others in their own moments of need.

Experience. When Obama talks about postpartisanship, he talks about a grass-roots movement that will arise and sweep away the old ways of Washington. When John McCain talks about it, he describes a meeting of wise old heads who get together to craft compromises. Obama’s vision is more romantic, but McCain’s is more realistic.

When Biden was a young senator, he was mentored by Hubert Humphrey, Mike Mansfield and the like. He was schooled in senatorial procedure in the days when the Senate was less gridlocked. If Obama hopes to pass energy and health care legislation, he’s going to need someone with that kind of legislative knowledge who can bring the battered old senators together, as in days of yore.

There are other veep choices. Tim Kaine seems like a solid man, but selecting him would be disastrous. It would underline all the anxieties voters have about youth and inexperience. Evan Bayh has impeccably centrist credentials, but the country is not in the mood for dispassionate caution.

Biden’s the one. The only question is whether Obama was wise and self-aware enough to know that.

THE CASE AGAINST BIDEN, by Chris Cillizza (liberal?) of the Washington Post:

Loose Lips Sink Ships

Over the course of his presidential bid, Biden cemented his reputation as — how to put this nicely? — less than disciplined on the campaign trail.

In the summer of 2006, as he was publicly mulling the race, Biden set off a controversy over comments he made about Indian Americans.

“I’ve had a great relationship [with Indian Americans],” Biden said. “In Delaware, the largest growth in population is Indian-Americans moving from India. You cannot go to a 7-Eleven or a Dunkin’ Donuts unless you have a slight Indian accent. I’m not joking.”

On the day he formally announced his candidacy, a New York Observer story that quoted Biden as calling Obama “articulate and bright and clean and a nice-looking guy” came out, and the resultant uproar effectively undercut any momentum Biden was hoping to build.

While Biden was on his best verbal behavior for much of the rest of the campaign, there is no question that his tendency to shoot from the lip worries some in Obama world. As one Democratic consultant put it: “You know there will be three days in the campaign where someone in Chicago will get a call and respond — ‘What did you say he said?.’”

For a campaign that prides itself on its message discipline, choosing Biden would be introducing a wildcard into the mix. The Obama campaign exudes quiet confidence that if they do the basic political work between now and Nov. 4 the Illinois senator will be president. Do they really want to risk it with Biden?

Plagiarizer In Chief

Way back in 1987, Biden was riding high in the presidential race — widely regarded as a serious contenders for the Democratic party’s nod.

Then Neil Kinnock happened. Biden borrowed passages of a speech given by Kinnock, a leader in Britain’s Labour Party, without attribution — a mistake that led to a detailed examination of Biden’s public statements that turned up several more examples of potential plagiarism and resume inflation. The feeding frenzy eventually chased the Delaware senator from the race.

The incident has become the stuff of political lore — type “Joe Biden and Neil Kinnock” into Google and more than 37,000 hits are returned — even though those close to Biden insist that the actual facts surrounding the incidents are largely overblown.

Maybe. But, while any political junkie worth his (or her) name knows all about the Kinnock incident, it’s a mistake to assume the average voter knows about it. In the words of one Republican strategist: “Old news inside the Beltway, new news outside.”

That reality means that in every story about Biden done in the aftermath of his selection, Kinnock’s name and the allegations of plagiarism would come up. It would complicate the desired flawless roll-out of the new ticket and could even raise questions about Obama’s commitment to a new kind of politics.

Washington Insider

The central tenet of Obama’s campaign message is that if Americans want to change their government, then they have to change the people they send to Washington.

Picking Biden, who has served in the Senate for the better part of the last four decades, seems to run counter to that core message. Biden was elected to the Senate at age 29 and spent only four years after graduating from Syracuse Law School in 1968 working in the private sector before entering public life.

Biden has long been a regular on the Sunday talk show circuit and is one of the pillars of the Democratic party establishment. His accomplishments — of which there are many — all were achieved as a senator operating inside the deepest heart of political Washington.

Biden allies note that despite his long service in Washington he is, at his core, an outsider inside the Beltway. While that may well be true, the optics for Obama aren’t great; he can’t change the fact that in picking Biden he would be going with someone who has spent nearly his entire adult life not only in politics but as a member of the world’s greatest deliberative body.

Joe Loves Joe

One of the most overlooked episodes during the 1987 collapse of Biden’s campaign was a snippet of footage captured by C-Span in which the Delaware senator, in response to a question about where he went to law school and what sort of grades he received, delivered this classic line: “I think I have a much higher IQ than you do.”

While any human being — especially a candidate for president who is constantly being poked and prodded — can be forgiven a momentary flash of temper, Biden’s detractors point to that incident as evidence that the senator thinks he is the bee’s knees and doesn’t care who knows it.

Biden, by his own admission, has the capacity to fall in love with his own voice and wander off on tangents about his life that have nothing to do with the topic at hand.

During the 2006 confirmation hearings for Supreme Court Justice Samuel Alito, the Post’s Dana Milbank wrote this of Biden’s performance:

“Sen. Joseph R. Biden Jr., in his first 12 minutes of questioning the nominee, managed to get off only one question. Instead, during his 30-minute round of questioning, Biden spoke about his own Irish American roots, his “Grandfather Finnegan,” his son’s application to Princeton (he attended the University of Pennsylvania instead, Biden said), a speech the senator gave on the Princeton campus, the fact that Biden is “not a Princeton fan,” and his views on the eyeglasses of Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.).”

Ouch.

There is evidence from the Democratic primaries that Biden is not only aware of his tendency to go on (and on) about himself but is also able to curb that natural tendency, however. In one of the best moments in an unending series of Democratic debates, Biden was asked by moderator Brian Williams whether he possessed the “discipline” to be the leader of the free world. Biden’s simple response — “yes” — brought the house down and put the Delaware senator in The Fix’s “winners” column for the night.

Now it’s your turn. What do you think of Obama’s choice? Please post a comment, & let’s get a conversation started!

UPDATE: Here’s the first video featuring Biden from Obama’s website:

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We’re going to be off for a few days coming up (to get us recharged for the conventions & the breakneck campaign in the weeks thereafter), so we’re trying to gin up the post count to tide you over.

An article from Blender Magazine asked both Obama & McCain what their favorite songs are. Here’s the list, & to make this value-added we’ve included YouTube clips of each song where they exist:

BARACK OBAMA

1. Ready or Not - Fugees

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2. What’s Going On - Marvin Gaye

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3. I’m On Fire - Bruce Springsteen

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4. Gimme Shelter - Rolling StonesPlease enable Javascript and Flash to view this Flash video.

5. Sinnerman - Nina Simone

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6. Touch the Sky - Kanye West

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7. You’d Be So Easy to Love - Frank Sinatra

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8. Think - Aretha Franklin

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9. City of Blinding Lights - U2

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10. Yes We Can - will.i.am (ugh - Vote08)

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JOHN McCAIN

1. Dancing Queen - ABBA

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2. Blue Bayou - Roy Orbison

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3. Take a Chance On Me - ABBA

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4. If We MakeIt Through December - Merle Haggard

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5. As Time Goes By - Dooley Wilson

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6. Good Vibrations - The Beach Boys

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7. What A Wonderful World - Louis Armstrong

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8. I’ve Got You Under My Skin - Frank Sinatra

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9. Sweet Caroline - Neil Diamond

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10. Smoke Gets In Your Eyes - The Platters

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My favorites on this list:

1. Blue Bayou - Roy Orbison (far & away the best song on both lists)

2. Good Vibrations - The Beach Boys

3. If We MakeIt Through December - Merle Haggard

4. Sinnerman - Nina Simone

That’s 3 for McCain & one for Obama. Not that that means anything. Least favorite: Yes We Can. What is he thinking?!

& what do you think?

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Instructions for optimal viewing:

1. Adjust volume for clip 2 to about 50%

2. Play clip 2

3. Play clip 1

4. When clip 1 runs out, play clip 3

5. Play clip 1 again until clip 2 is over

Earlier Homemade Music Video: “So Happy Together“ 

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Suggestions for optimal viewing:

1. Play Clip #1.

2. Adjust volume to 50% to 25% on Clip #2.

3. Play Clip #2.

4. Repeat playing Clip #2 until Clip #1 is finished.