What happened to Fred Thompson’s candidacy? Back in March of last year, a full six months before he announced he’d run, NewsChannel9.com ran a web poll asking which Republican candidates you support. An astonishing 60% of you chose Fred Thompson in this unscientific poll — no other candidate came anywhere close. Late last week, we asked you who would get your vote in the February 5th primary, and roughly the same amount (about 600) of you voted. This time, Thompson only got 14% of the vote, losing out to Ron Paul’s 26% and Mike Huckabee’s 21%. I have to give Ron Paul’s supporters credit for being the most internet-savvy of any candidate’s supporters out there, but I have a hunch it would have been Huckabee who would have given Thompson a few sleepless nights in his home state. So why did Fred falter?
More than any other quality this year, I think Republican voters this year (whether they’re ready to admit it or not) are going to throw their support behind the candidate most likely to win. And - no small matter here - win against Hillary Clinton. Thompson’s conservative credentials should have been enough to please if not a majority of voters, then at least a plurality. He talked the talk and for the most part walked the walk. The trouble is that this year, the walk he walks and the talk he talks sounds a bit too much like the White House’s current occupant. Fred’s folksy elocution could have stood a better chance in the last three presidential elections. But after 8 years with a Texan known for mangled grammar and ‘cowboy’ mannerisms in the White House, voters are ready for a change. Thompson either refused to point out or failed to make an adequate case how he would be ‘different’ than President Bush. And Republican voters are savvy enough to realize that it would have been hard to make a case for someone doesn’t represent a change from the status quo.
There’s also the ‘fire in the belly’ factor, or lack of it, which Thompson eerily predicted on Fox News more than 10 years ago:
“Going on the road for months at a time, and for all practical purposes just checking [in] every once in a while; I wouldn’t do that. I don’t think it has to be done that way. I know people will expect that of everyone — to run frenetically around for years. And I don’t do frenetic very well.” -Fred Thompson, interview by Fox News’ Neil Cavuto, April 11th, 1997 as excerpted from “The Fred Factor: How Fred Thompson May Change the Face of the ‘08 Campaign” by Nashville talk radio host Steve Gill
The foreshadowing goes back even further. The quote he chose to go by his name in his 1960 high school yearbook read “The lazier a man is, the more he plans to do tomorrow.”
To whom will Thompson throw his support? As of right now, the answer is no one. Thompson adviser Rich Galen tells the Politico “”I certainly don’t expect him to [endorse another candidate] now or before Florida.”Thompson has supported John McCain in the past. He endorsed his bid for the presidency in 2000 as a senator. But that may be tougher to do this year, when ideological purity, at the moment, seems to be a matter of importance with many Republicans (importance that diminishes the sooner a Democratic candidate emerges as the front-runner) . Some high-profile members of the GOP have distanced themselves from McCain, and it’s possible Thompson will wait for a clear nominee to emerge after a frenetic and bitter primary season before he lends his support to any candidate.
One of Thompson’s earliest and most ardent supporters has been Tennessee 3rd district Congressman Zach Wamp. In the summer before Thompson announced his candidacy, Wamp organized a meet-and-greet for Thompson with several dozen of his congressional colleagues. Wamp said repeatedly in interviews that the key to the problems President Bush has had with winning popular approval is his inability to communicate effectively. Though Thompson no longer has a chance at the top of the ticket, Wamp remains hopeful he’ll be considered for the bottom.
“I’m not going to support anybody today or tomorrow,” Wamp told the Media General News Service . “With any of these big three [John McCain, Mike Huckabee, or Mitt Romney], if they win the nomination, Fred Thompson would add a whole lot to that ticket.”
What do you think sank Thompson’s chances? Was it a lack of the ‘fire in the belly’ that’s required for a presidential campaign in this day and age? Are voters in today’s political environment rejecting a candidate who embraces conservative principles? Or was it simply that Thompson was unable to communicate effectively on the campaign trail?
Other links about Thompson:
Lloyd Garver wonders about the timing of Tuesday’s announcement at the Huffington Post.
get in the race early.
Also on the Huffington Post, Katherine Zalesky blames the media for pumping up Thompson’s chances a little too much.
Which candidate benefits the most from Thompson’s exit? The Washington Post blog Behind the Numbers looks at what kind of voters chose Thompson in the early primaries.
The Tennessee Democratic Primary wasted no time in expressing glee in both Thompson’s demise and the prospects that the GOP race for Tennessee voters is no longer a foregone conclusion.
A head-to-head matchup at RealClearPolitics.com shows Thompson would have had a tough race against Hillary Clinton.
Oh, & by the way - we predicted this two months ago.
