Above: 3rd graders debate the Iraq war.

(hat tip: Andrew Sullivan)

Post from: The Blog Formerly Known As Vote '08

Watch the 1st Presidential Debate here.

Watch the Vice-Presidential Debate here. Who won? Click here.

Watch the 2nd Presidential Debate here. Who won? Click here.

Watch the 3rd Presidential Debate here. Who won? Click here.

(image by Matt Brunson)

Post from: The Blog Formerly Known As Vote '08

Click here to view the embedded video.

Above: last night’s Georgia Senate debate.

This race is incredibly close.

YOU HEARD IT HERE FIRST: Based on what I’ve seen in this debate, I predict Chambliss will win. A close race, to be sure, but he’ll win. Watch how he easily is able to fend off not one but two challengers on the stage. The man appears far more comfortable in his skin than the other two. Jim Martin continually lets himself be interrupted, & he doesn’t convey a good speaking style that says “I’m in control.”

Of course, I could be wrong.

But if Chambliss wins, remember where you heard it first.

Post from: The Blog Formerly Known As Vote '08

How Reagan “Closed the Deal”

Comparisons have been made with this year’s race to 1980, & they’re apt in the sense thatlike Reagan, voters didn’t appear to feel “safer” with Obama until after the debate. Will it have the same outcome? That remains to be seen, of course.

After the jump some commercials Reagan aired that year:

How do you think these ads compare to ads this year? Post a comment! All views are welcome.

Post from: The Blog Formerly Known As Vote '08

Barack Obama is certainly not Batman.

& John McCain is certainly not the Penguin.

But could I resist posting this?

No.

No, I couldn’t.

Post from: The Blog Formerly Known As Vote '08

[image by Matt Brunson]

…you mean other than plumbers?

I would say that in terms of issues, substance, & attacks, John McCain had his best of the three last night.

But because of the debate’s ’sit-down’ format, he lost the debate on an entirely different level.

Details after the jump.

Click here to view the embedded video.

Turn the volume down all the way on this clip & watch it.

Look at the body language in both men.

I constantly have to remind myself that unlike me - who’s been following this campaign for 2 years now - there are many voters out there who are just now starting to pay attention.

& for those voters - even though many of them will not consciously admit it - what each of the candidates say is far less important than how they say it. How they look when saying it. Voters look for non-verbal cues that reinforce their beliefs on a candidate’s “readiness” to be president.

By this standard (look up at the silent clip again) you can see how much more important McCain’s rapid-fire eye-blinkings & herky-jerky movements & Obama’s slow, steady head nods & smiles are in creating impressions with voters.

By this measure, it’s not even close. Obama’s mopping up.

I think the sit-down format hurt McCain in this regard. I think for the 1st debate, he was able to get all his nervous energy out by shifting his weight. During the 2nd debate, he was able to expend this energy by walking around.

Last night that nervous energy had nowhere else to go but his eyes & hands. As one review I read pointed out, he looked like a kid in time-out who is really ready for time-out to be over.

Of course this is a superficial view. But I do think it’s the single biggest reason Obama’s doing so well in any national poll that’s come out since the debates began. He simply can control his body language better.

Is that fair? No, of course not. But it’s what’s happening - again, whether voters realize it or not.

What do you think?

UPDATE: Look at this compliation of all of the faces McCain made last night.

Post from: The Blog Formerly Known As Vote '08

Did you miss it last night? You’re in luck - I’ve got the entire debate in full & in order after the jump. (My analysis will be in the next post)

Click here to view the embedded video.

Above: Schieffer starts off with a question to both candidates on why their plans are better for America.

Click here to view the embedded video.

Above: Joe the Plumber makes his 1st appearance.

Click here to view the embedded video.

Above: a debate on the deficit & proposed “spending freezes.”

Click here to view the embedded video.

Above: Schieffer asks if either of them can balance the budget, & McCain says “I’m not President Bush.”

Click here to view the embedded video.

Above: Schieffer “dares” them to say their attacks to each other’s faces.

Click here to view the embedded video.

Above: a discussion of campaign ads & smears.

Click here to view the embedded video.

Above: the Bill Ayers & ACORN issues.

Click here to view the embedded video.

Above: both candidates discuss their vice-presidential nominees.

Click here to view the embedded video.

Above: a discussion of energy policy.

Click here to view the embedded video.

Above: a discussion of trade policy.

Click here to view the embedded video.

Above: a debate over health care.

Click here to view the embedded video.

Above: Joe the Plumber & taxes.

Click here to view the embedded video.

Above: a discussion of Roe v. Wade & Supreme Court justices.

Click here to view the embedded video.

Above: a discussion of late-term abortions & Roe v. Wade.

Click here to view the embedded video.

Above: how can our children compete in an increasingly competitive world?

Click here to view the embedded video.

Above: a discussion on the federal government’s role in schools.

Click here to view the embedded video.

Above: Closing Statements.

Post from: The Blog Formerly Known As Vote '08

As we said yesterday, McCain says he does plan to bring up the William Ayers issue at tonight’s debate. That’s after much goading from his supporters - & his opponent (”say it to my face“). Obama said today he’s ready for that attack.

It’s all turned, essentially, into this:

Click here to view the embedded video.

But is there a chance it could turn out that it’s McCain’s tongue that sticks to the flagpole?

Possibly, yes.

McCain’s in a quandary. Mentioning Ayers has the potential to grab some of those “unpersuadeds” in the electorate. Yet it’s a double-edged sword - the vast majority of undecided voters want talk of the economy & nothing else. It’s a gamble. I don’t think I’d advise him to do it, supporters be da(rn)ed. It will certainly not keep those supporters home on election day.

What can McCain do to turn the election around? People from all sides of the aisle weigh in here.

I do hope you watch tonight. This is the last chance we’re going to see these two candidates on the stage at the same time, outlining their visions for the future. If you have plans, I’d recommend changing them if you can. History will happen tonight.

& in case you’re unable to view it, I hope to have the entire debate posted on this blog (it’ll be the very next post after this one) by 9am EDT tomorrow.

Between now & then, I’d like to ask your opinion. What advice would you give both candidates tonight? Please weigh in in the comments section!

Post from: The Blog Formerly Known As Vote '08

SO sorry about the lack of posts today.. I had to come in late & then deal with the normal newscast I have to put together & then try to find out why my post I filed yesterday about Tactics vs. Strategy in predicting last night’s debate seemingly disappeared.

I’m sure you’ve already read/heard/seen quite a bit of analysis about last night’s debate.. let’s go through my points quickly.

I think McCain did far better in this debate than he did the 1st one. He was far more “approachable” & considerate; he empathized (a la Clinton) with the questioners.. & he definitely appeared more animated in a good way.

I actually think Obama seemed a bit more ‘negative’ in his attacks on McCain, though it’s entirely likely that they were close to the same kinds of attacks as the 1st debate, but drawn into sharper relief in the town hall format.

But John McCain failed to effectively draw blood. He actually made a smart decision not to get down in the gutter, despite the pleas from the right. Doing so would have had him doing far worse. But rather than draw blood, the best he could do was scratches, or even red marks.

All Obama had to do was give off a “presidential” air. & so while he didn’t clearly win the night, he did nothing to change his upward momentum. & he certainly won over quite a few people who before tonight had not seen him discourse for 90 minutes.

Which is bad news for John McCain.

Body language note that I haven’t seen pointed out: there were several times in the debate where John McCain actually walked backwards to his chair & talked at the same time. Think about the visual symbolism that that body language represents. Not a good move.

Those are my initial thoughts.. I’ll try to have more later. What I really want to hear is what you thought of it. So post a comment!

Post from: The Blog Formerly Known As Vote '08

Here’s clip 1.. of 19. Watch them in order & in full after the jump.

Post from: The Blog Formerly Known As Vote '08

The Grandaddy of ‘em All

Above: watch how it worked for the first year this ‘town-hall’ debate format was tried, in 1992.

Post from: The Blog Formerly Known As Vote '08

Roger Ebert on Biden’s Best Debate Moment

The film critic says

Biden said, “I know what it’s like to be a single parent raising two children.” He did not know if his sons would survive the auto accident that took his wife and daughter. For a moment, he lost his composure. Looking at the moment again, I believe, as I did at the time, that it was genuine emotion, and not stagecraft. It could not have been anticipated by Palin. The next camera angle was above and behind her. She paused. The silence seemed to anticipate words of sympathy and identification from her. But Biden had ended in a sentence using the word “change,” and her response, reflecting no emotion at all, cued off that word and became a talking point about McCain. This felt to me, at worst, insensitive and callous. At best, that she had not fully heard Biden. In either event, her response troubled me. If a man had responded in that way to such a statement from a women, he would be called a heartless brute.

Post from: The Blog Formerly Known As Vote '08

Most Over the Top Palin Reviewer

That award goes to the National Review’s Rich Lowry, whose viewpoint - up until I read this one - I happened to take seriously:

“A very wise TV executive once told me that the key to TV is projecting through the screen. It’s one of the keys to the success of, say, a Bill O’Reilly, who comes through the screen and grabs you by the throat. Palin too projects through the screen like crazy. I’m sure I’m not the only male in America who, when Palin dropped her first wink, sat up a little straighter on the couch and said, “Hey, I think she just winked at me.” And her smile. By the end, when she clearly knew she was doing well, it was so sparkling it was almost mesmerizing. It sent little starbursts through the screen and ricocheting around the living rooms of America. This is a quality that can’t be learned; it’s either something you have or you don’t, and man, she’s got it.”

Someone get that man a cold shower.

Here’s a summary of all the ‘winks’ we saw in the debate Thursday night:

Click here to view the embedded video.

Post from: The Blog Formerly Known As Vote '08

Click here to view the embedded video.

How did I think it went? See how much my predictions & advice played out after the jump.

This will be briefer than I’d like, as this is my Saturday for the week & I’m not even supposed to be at work.

But.

Go to the link above 1st before reading further.

Let’s start with my predictions:

-Palin will do far better than expected. Absolutely the case. Not in any doubt. The expectations were extremely low, & she managed to finish (nearly breathlessly) without a major gaffe.

-Biden will do far better than expected. Again, this was true. Biden did not get long-winded, did not try to demonstrate that he was the smartest person in the room, & did not trip the gender mines that were placed all around him.

-Both candidates only have about a 25% chance of committing a self-inflicted wound. I think the closest Palin came to a self-inflicted wound was an obvious deflection (more than once) of an answer she didn’t have to answer that she did have. Biden sighed audibly twice, & referred to himself in the 3rd person twice. Overall, both candidates dodged this bullet.

-Both candidates will aim their fire at the tops of each opposing ticket more, & attack each other less. I think this did play out to a great extent, but Biden did a better job of aiming at McCain-not-Palin than Palin did of aiming at Obama-not-Biden.

On that score, MSNBC’s First Read blog has this interesting nugget:

From NBC’s Chuck Todd and Carrie Dann
Looking to the top of the ticket, a full transcript and a quick count shows that the focus of this debate was much more on McCain than on Obama. The VP candidates mentioned John McCain a combined 106 times. Obama? Only 66.

Any strategist on either side of the fence will tell you that that’s not a good thing for John McCain. He needed this debate to be far more about Barack Obama.

-TV viewership will blow Friday night’s debate away. At this writing, the jury’s still out. A Friday night audience vs. a Thursday night audience is typically no contest, though. I expect this to be true.

-This will be more consequential of a debate than past VP debates. Forgive my Clintonesque response, but it depends on the definition of the term “consequential.” If consequential means that the dynamics of the race have fundamentally changed, I would say no. If consequential means that it solidifies already-extant trends, then I think this is true. Again, remains to be seen with polls that won’t reflect the debate’s impact until next week.

-Gwen Ifill will do as good a job -if not better- as Jim Lehrer did last Friday. Frankly, I was a bit too disappointed. Gwen talked with her hands a bit too much, & she at times lacked the persona of what we in the business called a “command anchor,” someone who gives off the impression that they’re competent/in charge/driving the debate. She did probably as well or maybe a bit worse than Jim Lehrer.

Now, let’s turn to the specific points of my advice:

Did Palin avoid any Couric-style meltdowns? Yes, she did. She appeared confident of her answers - even though she rushed her delivery in many of them & appeared to be rattling off a coherent argument that she had memorized. The prep paid off. A side note - Palin really did poorly when Couric asked follow-up questions. This format didn’t allow for many of those. As I warned here two days ago, Democrats who were expecting her to crash & burn were disappointed.. & watching the clip in that link proves I was correct.

Did Palin “stick to broad themes, outline her principles & values, rather than getting bogged down in specifics? I think she did. She was slightly more specific on some matters than I had expected her to be, but this is a reflection of good prep work earlier in the week. One of her high points was when she referred to taking personal responsibility - a value most Americans feel is lacking in Washington & Wall Street these days.

Did Palin readily admit to not knowing the answer to a question, saying “I don’t know?” Well, no, she didn’t - but as I said earlier, there were moments where it was obvious she wasn’t ready for a particular question, & she switched quickly to an answer that she was ready to give.

Did she remind voters whom she’s counting for victory of her working-class roots? She delivered more on this advice than her opponent, quite certainly. It was plain that she was counting heavily on her “folksy-isms” like “doggone it,” “gosh darn,” etc. to help her win the night. She mentioned a soccer game within 30 seconds of the start of the debate. Very effective here.

Did she successfully keep the attack on Obama & not Biden? See above. She didn’t exclusively keep her attacks on Obama - there were many times she directly attacked Biden. But she did appear to be following this advice.

Did she keep the snark that was prevalent in her RNC speech to a minimum? Not as much as I thought she would. Who knows, this may be effective. This strategy certainly mollified the base. Time will tell if independents will respond in the same way.

PALIN’S WORST MOMENT: Rather than recognizing the poignancy of the moment when Biden choked up about raising two sons as a single parent.. her immediate response was to launch into another rapid-fire canned answer.

Now on to Joe:

Did he avoid a “You’re no Jack Kennedy” moment? Absolutely. I think he stepped around all the gender mines that were on that stage. He did not thrust or parry in Palin’s direction - keeping the focus of his attacks on McCain - though Palin left him several opportunities to do so.

Did he avoid being condescending like George H.W. Bush was to Geraldine Ferraro? Yes. I saw a comfortableness that is probably borne of years of experience debating several of Palin’s gender in the Senate.

Did he keep his answers short & sweet? In terms of the time limits of the debate, yes.

Did he remind voters whom he’s counting on for victory of his working-class roots? Yes, but not as well as Palin did. I thought it was a mistake for him to wait to mention his family challenges so late in the debate (the final 3rd).. whereas (see above) Palin hit the ground running with working-class references. Biden held his own.. but Palin won in this particular contest.

Did he effectively attack McCain more than Palin? Yes, far better than Palin did with Obama.

Did he attack Palin’s experience in a way that ultimately backfired? No. Outside of the oblique “bridge to nowhere” reference, he did a good job keeping himself from falling into this trap.

& again, in the interest of time (I have a weekend to enjoy here), I’d like to print the reaction of Andrew Sullivan, which mirrors my thoughts about the debate pretty closely:

Biden didn’t put the boot in; he didn’t come off as sexist; he didn’t make any obvious gaffes. Palin didn’t collapse and pushed through the debate with enough speed not to wobble. But it felt as if she needed the speed in order not to wobble. Her inexperience showed; her tone worked best at first and then began to grate. I don’t think this debate changed the direction of this election campaign, and I think Palin’s performance will buck up base Republicans but actually unnerve some independents.

The campaign’s trajectory remains unaltered. Palin’s inability to answer real questions, her capacity to avoid follow-ups, her slightly manic quality, and her inability to relate to working class voters came across. Biden did not talk too much; he made no sexist gaffes; he didn’t appear to be overweening; he seemed like a nice guy. I think she managed to avoid a tailspin; he reassured. It will stem the GOP collapse a little. But it won’t change the race.

Lots of other debate reactions can be read here.

Your turn!

What do you think?

Post a comment!

Post from: The Blog Formerly Known As Vote '08

Click here to view the embedded video.

Above: part 1, beginning with opening statements.

After the jump, watch the entire thing. & let me know what you think!

Click here to view the embedded video.

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Post from: The Blog Formerly Known As Vote '08

Ladies first.

ADVICE FOR SARAH PALIN

1. More of this:

Click here to view the embedded video.

& less of this:

Click here to view the embedded video.

2. Stick to broad themes. Outline your principles & values, rather than getting bogged down in specifics.

3. Do not be afraid of the phrase “I don’t know.” Viewers will be much more forgiving hearing this than an attempt to bluff your way out of a question.

4. Remind the voters whom you are counting on for victory of your working class roots.

5. Keep your attacks focused on the top of the opposing ticket rather than the person who’s sharing the stage with you.

6. While attacking the Democratic nominee is necessary, do not attempt to approach 50% of the snarkiness & sarcasm you put on display here:

Click here to view the embedded video.

ADVICE FOR JOE BIDEN

1. Don’t do this:

Click here to view the embedded video.

2. Don’t do this:

Click here to view the embedded video.

3. Do more of this:

Click here to view the embedded video.

4. Remind the voters whom you are counting on for victory of your working class roots.

5. Keep your attacks focused on the top of the opposing ticket rather than the person who’s sharing the stage with you.

6. While attacking the Republican nominee is necessary, realize that the more you attack your VP-opponent’s experience, the better she will look in the eyes of viewers/voters.

.

MY PREDICTIONS:

-Palin will do far better than expected.

-Biden will do far better than expected.

-Both candidates only have about a 25% chance of committing a self-inflicted wound.

-Both candidates will aim their fire at the tops of each opposing ticket more, & attack each other less.

-TV viewership will blow Friday night’s debate away.

-This will be more consequential of a debate than past VP debates.

-Gwen Ifill will do as good a job -if not better- as Jim Lehrer did last Friday.

Now it’s your turn.

What advice would you give them?

Post a comment now!

All views are welcome.

Post from: The Blog Formerly Known As Vote '08

I have heard quite a bit of crowing about how Thursday’s VP debate will be a wash for Joe Biden.

Many liberals/Obama supporters think they have this all wrapped up.

They don’t.

& they should be a lot more concerned than they currently are.

Case in point: watch the clip above, which shows a fairly decent performance on Palin’s part during the 2006 Alaska gubernatorial debates.

Couple that with the expectations-bar set extremely low — thanks mainly to the [frankly, pathetic] Katie Couric interviews — & there remains an excellent chance that Friday morning Palin’s performance will be judged as successful.

What do you think?

FURTHER READING: “On Small Stage, Palin Scored Big Debate Wins” - Politico

Post from: The Blog Formerly Known As Vote '08

Clarence Page on Obama’s seemingly ‘tame’ debate performance:

His dry, defensive and nearly humorless performance seemed to be quietly urging viewers to tune out and switch to another channel.

Where, I wondered, was the vision, the poetry, the rich metaphors and imagery that flow from Obama when he’s on top of his oratorical game?

Then it dawned on me: Maybe Obama was pulling his punches. Maybe he was trying to pull off a debate team version of rope-a-dope, a boxing strategy made famous by Muhammad Ali in which you can win by appearing at first to be losing.

Ali would lay against the ropes in a protected stance, let his opponent exhaust himself by punching away, then start punching back all the way to victory.

Maybe Obama was laying back in similar fashion through his first debate with McCain.

Count me among those who initially thought Obama was making a mistake by agreeing with McCain so much.

What it appears he was doing, it turns out, was demonstrate to voters that he’s more interested in consensus-building than creating more divisions. I don’t need to check anywhere on the ‘net to tell you that voters are tired of division & partisanship this year.

The question I pose to McCain supporters, who should in turn ask his campaign, is this:

Has he figured this out?

What do you think?

Post from: The Blog Formerly Known As Vote '08

(the latest in a series)

Post from: The Blog Formerly Known As Vote '08

Barack Obama won the debate Friday night.

No, John McCain won the debate Friday night.

That may be so, but Barack Obama lost the debate Friday night.

Even if that’s the case, John McCain lost the debate Friday night.

What do you think?

Post from: The Blog Formerly Known As Vote '08

Above: Pollster Frank Luntz interviews a group of undecided voters (who split down the middle in 2004) of their thoughts immediately following the debate.

Pay close attention to the “what single word comes to your mind” answers.

What do you think?

Post from: The Blog Formerly Known As Vote '08

[Part 1 of our "Enhanced 3D Viewing of the Debate." Read our explanation of what that means here.]

Click here to view the embedded video.

JIM LEHRER: Let me begin with something General Eisenhower said in his 1952 presidential campaign. Quote, “We must achieve both security & solvency. In fact, the foundation of military strength is economic strength,” end quote.

With that in mind, the first lead question.

Gentlemen, at this very moment tonight, where do you stand on the financial recovery plan?

First response to you, Senator Obama. You have two minutes.

Post from: The Blog Formerly Known As Vote '08