Vote '08

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How does last Tuesday’s win compare to recent elections in terms of the Electoral College margin of victory?

Take a look at where 2008 stands on the totem pole, comparing with all presidential elections since 1960 (ie, since we’ve had the total be ‘538′):

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[image by Patrick Moberg, h/t Andrew Sullivan]

Reminder: It’s okay to be happy about this moment in American history & still be critical of Barack Obama.

To those of you who didn’t choose him, take comfort in the fact that Americans have just wielded a powerful global blow to those who (wrongly) believe America is ‘weak’ or ‘in decline’ & thus ‘vulnerable.’

It is one of if not the most effective strikes against those around the world who would do us harm in the past 7 years & 2 months.

& it didn’t involve the firing of a single bullet.

People of every nation around the globe see that America is the one civilization which has proven over time to work the best, & as of Tuesday I would say more people are going to demand their leaders reflect the American system more, not less.

& to those who feel less certain today about the future than they did last Monday - temper your doubt & fear with faith in the genius of the American system.

America & the idea behind it truly does work, & is worth dying for.

This past Tuesday reaffirmed that loud & clear.

Since we started this blog back in January, this blog has received more than 32 thousand page views.

That’s not “the Page” or “ABC News” by a long shot, but it’s still pretty impressive, & I thank you for your attention.

I hope I’ve been informative & entertaining for you through this long election year. This has certainly been a labor of love for me.

After the jump, the list of the top 10 most viewed pages on this blog, as of today.

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Care to Guess?

UPDATE: I’ve entered my predictions in red, at 4:45pm. They will not be changed.

Here’s an election night pool that I’m in with a few college buddies/political junkies.

First off, go to this site, which allows you to plug in states one way or the other to help you reach your electoral tally. You can also see how states went in other recent contests.

Feel free to post your guesses on any or all of these questions:

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Urging Conservatives to Eat Their Peas

All the way back on February 8th, long before he had the nomination wrapped up, I made a case to conservatives that John McCain was the only GOP candidate that had a shot at the White House this year.

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Fantasy BBQ

Click here for a photo montage of our daydream about attending a BBQ with all of this year’s presidential candidates.

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The Platters That Matter

Click here for a Vote08 post of Obama & McCain’s top 10 favorite songs, with accompanying videos for each.

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Whom Would Fonzie Vote For?

Click here for my musings on how not just the Fonz but the entire Happy Days cast would choose for president in 2008.

“The Best Race I Ever Covered“

I think David Broder speaks for us all.

Essential reading from the dean of the Washington Press Corps here.

“It’s been so rich with precedent and incident — and so very, very long — that we have, if anything, undervalued and even lost sight of its significance at times. In these final hours there’s some sense in pausing, pulling back and taking the broad measure of a contest that’s sure to affect not only this country’s civic life but also its emotional and psychological landscape for some time to come.” - Frank Bruni, the NY Times

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Commentary: Why Was He Such a Failure?

[before reading any further: check out this post, in which historian Doris Kearnes Goodwin outlines what makes a great president 'great.']

As much as the right would like to avoid it, 2008 most certainly a referendum on the policies of George W. Bush. He has always had a core of support (& I strongly suspect those hardcore supporters also find themselves rooting hard for Sarah Palin right now), but has had the lowest & most drawn-out approval rating of any modern president.

Why?

President Bush failed as a president because of his inability to adapt to what the times required. & as Scott McClellan famously said in his tell-all earlier this year, his administration conducted business in a “permanent campaign” mode.

President Bush governed on a binary basis. Binary could mean assigning everything a “0″ or a “1″ .. or one could look at it like an on/off switch. The administration either catered to the “1s,” those who comprised the administration, or those who would keep that administration in power either in public opinion or the ballot box, & did the opposite to the “0s,” which at the start of his administration meant anyone who voted for Al Gore (almost 50% of the nation). This ‘binary’ policy applied to foreign policy (”you’re either with us or against us”) & domestic policy (”anyone who disagrees with us aren’t true patriots & want the United States to fail”).

No president before Bush ran the White House so full-throttle in this direction. & only in the last couple of years (roughly since the 2006 congressional elections which reputed this style of government) has George W. Bush begun to reverse this approach’s catastrophic effects.

Bill Clinton was forced to declare “the era of big government is over” after his party’s resounding defeat in the 1994 congressional elections.

George H.W. Bush was forced to renege on his “no new taxes” pledge when it was clear that there was no other option to keep the budget out of the red.

Ronald Reagan had to sit down & talk with Democratic congressional leaders to work out compromises on the budget, tax rates, & election reform.

President Nixon created the Environmental Protection Administration, among other departments that are now viewed by the right as ‘liberal causes.’

My point is that every President necessarily has to bend with the times. Compromises were made for the overall good of the country, even though it meant that any particular president’s ideological beliefs would take a hit.

Not so with President Bush. He was not a president who surrounded himself with people who challenged his assumptions enough. He often “went with his gut” in making decisions, rather than glean empirical data or alternate points of view.

Again, the President has recently turned back on this “black & white” view of the world, & things in many areas of the world have improved. Iraq. North Korea. Iran. We are now involved in negotiations with all three countries, which were earlier deemed ‘the axis of evil.’

We are starting to see a military policy that recognizes that those who practice Islam do not all feel the same way about things, an assumption as silly as assuming the same for all Christians.

This year, thankfully, we are turning the page on a dark chapter in the history of the American presidency. It’s as if Herbert Hoover were elected after the stock market crashed, or James Buchanan were president after the Civil War started.

Either men running for president now would have served us far better in the last 8 years.. John McCain especially. & that’s why part of the Shakespearean tragedy that is John McCain most poignant is the fact that McCain had a decent shot at the presidency back in 2000, right after he beat George W. Bush in the New Hampshire primary.

But what happened? Those who favored George W. Bush’s rise to power set in motion an ugly & destructive campaign in the state of South Carolina. McCain’s loss there effectively dashed his hopes for realizing his destiny as the 43rd presidency of the United States.

That in and of itself is tragic. But even more so is the fact that those very forces that kept McCain down 8 years ago joined his campaign late this summer, & have been running it ever since. Considering the personal integrity I have seen in this man for 8 years now, McCain truly struck up a deal with the devil. Everything that happened afterward - the Palin choice, the ‘lipstick on a pig’ distraction, the erraticness of McCain’s campaign of the week of the bailout bill, the branding of Obama as a ’socialist Marxist what-have-you’ - is from the playbook of those who have been in power for the past 8 years.

I suggest making your choice based on how you feel things have been run for the past 8 years. If you are leaning McCain, you have to take a leap of faith that he will upon election immediately eschew these forces at work & become a President who doesn’t put a party’s success over the country’s. & if you are leaning Obama, you have to take a leap of faith that the executive powers that were expanded by an order of magnitude in the last 8 years will not be continued under the leadership of a president from a different party.

No matter who your choice is, I believe that above all else, your vote should be based on which candidate - & as you can read above, an argument can be made for both - would run the nation in a manner that does not resemble the management style of George W. Bush.

That’s my opinion, & you’re free to disagree. Scroll down & leave a comment if you have anything to say. All viewpoints are welcome.

Gleeful & Glum

From the AP:

“That smiling guy walking down the street? Odds are he’s a Barack Obama backer. The grouchy looking one? Don’t ask, and don’t necessarily count on him to vote next week, either. Supporters of John McCain, long less enthusiastic than Obama’s, have become increasingly glum about the presidential campaign in recent weeks, according to an Associated Press-Yahoo News poll released Saturday.”

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Above: home-video from an Obama rally in Pueblo, Colorado yesterday.

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Above: McCain in Newport News, Virginia yesterday.

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Above: home-video of Biden at BGCU yesterday.

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Above: home-video from a Palin rally in Glenn Allen, Virginia yesterday.

Revisit the Debates

Watch the 1st Presidential Debate here.

Watch the Vice-Presidential Debate here. Who won? Click here.

Watch the 2nd Presidential Debate here. Who won? Click here.

Watch the 3rd Presidential Debate here. Who won? Click here.

(image by Matt Brunson)

Eat Your Heart Out, Dorian Gray

As promised, here’s another look at a post we did back in April. A website altered photos of the candidates to show what they would look like after four years in office. & naturally, the results were not pretty:

Click on the link above to see how the years have treated George W. Bush - & see the same treatment on Hillary Clinton.

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While We’re On the Topic of Being Scared…

Read ‘Obama, Clinton & McCain Join Forces’ (May 21st) here.

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Their Superstitious Streak

Lucky charms galore grace the pockets of both Obama & McCain, & both men have quite a few superstitions.

Read this post from this year’s Friday the Thirteenth to find out more.

Just 5 Days to Go!

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***Reminder: TODAY’s your LAST DAY to vote early in Tennessee & FRIDAY is your LAST DAY to vote early in Georgia!***

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Straddling the Eras of Slavery & Black Presidential Candidates

Above: 109 year old Texas resident Amanda Jones, daughter of a slave, who just cast her vote for Barack Obama for President.

Regardless of whom you hope will win the White House, this truly is an amazing achievement for our country.

Obama in the Sunshine State

[scroll down to see Biden, McCain & Palin]

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Are Late-Undecided Voters McCain’s ‘Lifeboat?’

Dick Morris thinks the answer is yes.

Nate Silver thinks the answer is no.

This article takes a look at last-week undecided trends from past elections.

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Palin Stumps in Rush’s Hometown

..that would be Cape Girardeau, Missouri. Scroll down to see McCain in Ohio.

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Biden, Like Palin, in the Show-Me State

[Scroll down to see Sarah Palin & John McCain.]

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Can He Keep His Mouth Shut Until Tuesday?

The Politico weighs the pros & cons of Biden’s contributions to the campaign trail.

Also: the Obama campaign tries to clarify Biden’s “mark my words” comment in a new ad:

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Racism Knows No Party

Read examples of racism from the left this election season here.

But whatever you do, don’t pigeonhole rednecks:

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TR’s a Socialist!!!

Read a letter to the New York Times from 1908 that brands McCain’s favorite president with his current favorite perjorative for his opponent.

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Pro-McCain Robocalls Now Hitting Homes in…Arizona

Read more about it here.

Is McCain really in that much trouble in his home state? Check the average of polls here. The Obama camp claims their internal polls are tightening.

Personally, I don’t think he’s going to lose his home state. But it may be the ultimate margin of victory that McCain’s trying to manipulate.

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McCain Ad: He’s Not Ready…Yet

What’s with the “yet” in this ad? Bob Cesca has a theory.

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Is Palin Looking Down the Road to 2012?

It would appear so, based on the clip above. A loss will have the conventional wisdom coronating her as the 2012 front-runner. However, there may be a few in the GOP who have been holding their tongues until after the ballots have been cast.

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Pizza Politics

From Domino’s Pizza, via Marc Ambinder. I sent this out to the newsroom & got a funny response from operations engineer John Creel, whose text below is in red:

Republicans

— Spend more per order than other consumers.

(*WITH THE OIL MONEY PROFITS WE CAN SPEND MORE.)

— They rely on credit cards to pay more than other consumers.

(*DOESN’T EVERYBODY’S HAVE A AMERICAN EXPRESS GOLD CARD.)

– They tend to order two large pizzas at a time, and they’re usually
specialty pizzas.

(*EVERYTHING WORTH HAVING COMES IN 2′S. WE ALL GOTTA PAIR DON’T WE.)
– They are more likely to order online, and more likely to pick up their
orders.

(*LIMOS ARE GREAT FOR PICKING UP PIZZAS, ESPECIALLY WHEN LOBBYIST ARE
BUYING.)

Democrats

— Rely on delivery more than Republicans.

(*DELIVERY BOY IS A JUST A GUY TRYING TO MAKE A BUCK. WE’RE SPREADING THE WEALTH WITH HIM.)

– Pay cash more than other consumers.

(*CREDIT CARDS LEAVE A PAPER TRAIL TO FOLLOW. WE DON’T LIKE ANYTHING TRACEABLE BACK TO US.)

– Like more variety with their orders, opting for side items, chicken and
beverages more than Republicans.

(*WE LIKE OUR PIZZA LIKE OUR POLITICS … LOTS OF VARIETY.)

(*REPUBLICANS CALL THE SIDE ITEMS PORK, BUT WE PUT THEM ON OUR
CONGRESSIONAL BILLS AND VOTERS LOVE THEM.)

Funny stuff, John! Thanks!

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‘Joe’ a No-Show

Oops. Maybe he was recording his album?

More from McCain’ speech in Defiance, Ohio:

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North Carolina Senate Race Gets Ugly

The ad above may be remembered as one of the worst in the country for the year 2008. It’s also a sign of how much trouble Elizabeth Dole finds herself in. The worst part about the ad is the woman saying “there is no God” at the end which is NOT Kay Hagan, Dole’s opponent. No politician who has integrity - on either side of the aisle - would do something like that.

…but how much of the ad is true? Click here for a fact-check.

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Georgia Senate Race Called a ”Tossup”

Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight.com speculates on the spellbinding Georgia Senate race:

“Very quick observation about Georgia’s senate race, which along with California’s Proposition 8, may be the thing to watch on Election Night in the event of an Obama blowout. The polls, from what I can tell, are showing a fairly high undecided vote among the African-American population. Rasmussen’s most recent poll, which had Saxby Chambliss up by two, shows that 12 percent of black voters are undecided in the senate race. Were those voters to split 4:1 to Jim Martin, that would be worth a net of around 2 points to him, making the race a tie. SurveyUSA, likewise, shows a higher rate of undecideds among black voters (7%) than among whites (3%).

Related thought: it’s very difficult to imagine what a Chambliss-Obama voter looks like. It’s pretty easy to imagine what a McCain-Martin voter looks like. So if the Georgia polls have Obama down by 4 or 5 points, but Martin down by 2 or 3 points (as they do), something doesn’t quite seem right; I’d think the gap should be a bit wider.

Basically, I think this race is a true toss-up rather than a Lean R. African-American voters might be unfamiliar with Jim Martin, who didn’t become the nominee until August, but the ‘D’ beside his name is worth a lot..”
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Local Early Voting Report

Above: at long last, the folks at Freedom Blogging have finally enabled me to post videos from NewsChannel9.com here. Above: NewsChannel9’s Erica Green has an early voting report.

The Hamilton County Election Commission says as of Wednesday, 61576 people have voted early.

Reminder: TODAY’s your LAST DAY to vote early in Tennessee & FRIDAY is your LAST DAY to vote early in Georgia!

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McCain Matching Obama in Battleground State Ad Buys

From the Boston Globe:

“Ad spending and ad placement data obtained from Democratic and Republican operatives show that in the closing days of the campaign the Republican voice has grown louder in states such as Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Virginia and Pennsylvania.

For instance, Obama had been scheduled to buy about $2.5 million in Florida ads for the last week of the campaign. McCain is now set to spend about $1.6 million and the Republican National Committee added $1.5 million to their buy in the state this week. Obama appears to have added more weight to his ads since.”

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New Battleground State Polls

From Time magazine:

Pennsylvania: Obama 55, McCain 43
North Carolina: Obama 52, McCain 46
Nevada: Obama 52, McCain 45
Ohio: Obama 51, McCain 47
Arizona: McCain 53, Obama 46

Find out more info, including male/female & making over $50K/under $50K preferences here.

How about those Arizona numbers? Here’s another one, from NBC, that’s no doubt making McCain nervous. [Remember, Al Gore infamously lost his home state in 2000.]

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What Obama’s ‘Infomercial‘ Reminded Me Of Most

Think about it: what ad since 1984 can that infomercial compare to, besides this one?

Nate Silver adds:

“Discuss: all else being equal, the most optimistic candidate wins the election. And that’s definitely the mood that Obama is going for with this thing.”

I also would point out that not mentioning John McCain or President Bush was stroke of genius. It makes it harder for the right to criticize the ad because of this.

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Whoops:

Above: a screen grab from Fox News yesterday.

This is not the first time Fox’s graphics department has gotten it wrong.

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Campaign Quiz Time

Test your 2008 campaign knowledge here, & answer questions that include

2. Which one of these statements did Barack Obama make while campaigning?

A) “I’ve now been in 57 states. I think one left to go.”

B) “Most of all, I believe in you, Nebraska. Or South Dakota. Or wherever I am.”

C) “We’ve come so far since we began this campaign 21 years ago.”

Here’s a trivia question I’d add: which two presidential candidates stopped in Chattanooga during the primary season? (answer here)

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[below: the latest writings about the state of the conservative movement, as expressed by conservatives]

George Will:

From the invasion of Iraq to the selection of Sarah Palin, carelessness has characterized recent episodes of faux conservatism. Tuesday’s probable repudiation of the Republican Party will punish characteristics displayed in the campaign’s closing days.

Some polls show that Palin has become an even heavier weight in John McCain’s saddle than his association with George W. Bush. Did McCain, who seems to think that Palin’s never having attended a “Georgetown cocktail party” is sufficient qualification for the vice presidency, lift an eyebrow when she said that vice presidents “are in charge of the United States Senate”?

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Bill & Barack

Above: Bill Clinton & Barack Obama, together on stage for the first time, last night after the ‘infomercial‘ aired.

Back When We Mattered

The answer to our trivia question posed here: John Edwards & Mike Huckabee were the two candidates who stopped in Chattanooga, during primary season. Edwards was here on a Monday; by that Friday, he had dropped out of the race. Huckabee, as you know, stayed in for much longer.

Read our posts on Edwards’ visit here & here. Read our post on Huckabee’s visit here.

Where are they now? One candidate is disgraced after admitting to an affair, & his political career is likely over. The other hosts a talk show & is a viable presidential candidate for 2012. Do I really need to tell you who is who?

This Blog’s 1st Post…

..was about Fred Thompson’s decision to drop out of the race. Read it here.

Today’s links here & here on what Teddy Roosevelt would say about the candidates reminded me of the post I wrote all the way back on Lincoln’s Birthday of this year (just this year? seems like eons ago. ):

BELOW: My February 12th post, “Happy Birthday, Mr. Lincoln.”

199 years ago today, Abraham Lincoln was born in a one-room log cabin in Hardin County, Kentucky.

He would grow up to become a state lawmaker in Illinois, an Illinois congressman in Washington D.C., & ultimately the United States’ greatest president.

What would Lincoln say about today’s presidential campaign? Find out what some are saying, after the jump. Read the rest of this entry »