Vote '08

Rasmussen conducted the poll in Georgia on July 17th, & it shows little movement from the one we highlighted here, on June 30th.

McCain: 48%

Obama: 39%

Include “leaners” (people who might be persuaded one way or the tother), McCain’s lead widens to 53-42.

& the Bob Barr factor? Apparently not as big as previously estimated:

“Libertarian candidate Bob Barr who served in Congress as part of Georgia’s Congressional delegation picks up 5% of the vote initially, but only 1% when “leaners” are included. This means that up to 5% of voters now say they would vote for Barr but when asked a follow-up question only 1% remain committed to the man some view as a potential spoiler for McCain’s hopes.“

EARLIER: See our take on the results of the latest presidential poll in Tennessee (June 27th) here.

What do you think?

The New York Observer’s Steve Kornacki debunks the theory that Libertarian presidential candidate Bob Barr will be a factor on a national scale.

Read “Time for a Bob Barr Reality Check” here.

The figures he cites of Libertarian party showings in past presidential contests are hard to dispute:

1972: 0.00% (3,674 votes nationally)

1976: 0.2%

1980: 1.1%

1984: 0.3%

1988: 0.47%

1992: 0.28%

1996: 0.5%

2000: 0.36%

2004: .32%

Far more important in my eyes is what Barr’s going to do in Georgia. It’s his home state, & a decent showing (say, if he won his former Congressional district or garnered a threshold of 4% statewide) makes the Peach State an essential ‘get’ for Obama & McCain. Click here for the latest Georgia poll that backs up that claim.

Stay tuned.

What do you think?

UPDATE: Eric weighs in:

Two words: Ross Perot… He got 19% of the vote in 1992. With $4 gas, the worst housing market in 70 years, a collapsed dollar, a towering national debt, and the imminent re-appearance of Jimmy Carter stagflation, the voters are even more disgusted today, with 85% of the population saying the country is headed in the wrong direction.

The guy is already at 6% in the latest Zogby Poll. I think it’s quite possible for Barr to meet the 10% polling criteria to get into the Google/You Tube Presidential debate. If he does, then Perot’s numbers aren’t out of the question.

I think you have some good points, Eric - but check out this post & compare how Perot was doing at this time in 1992 compared to Barr. Barr may do better than expected, but he needs to get on the national stage but fast to make an impact.

UPDATE #2: Our resident newsroom Libertarian, Melydia, says:

I agree it’s time for a Bob Barr reality check. Most unfortunately, the Libertarian Party and all other independents continue to be disenfranchised by a corrupt process which alienates all but the GOP & the Dems. The MSM need fodder for 24/7 news coverage so they like to discuss the “potential” Barr factor and the “possibilities” of him affecting the Georgia vote. Talk is cheap.

What say you?

A new Rasmussen poll shows McCain in a commanding lead in Georgia, but there are issues that should give him more pause than those in Tennessee we reported to you earlier:

“John McCain continues to hold a substantial lead over Barack Obama in Georgia. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state shows the presumptive Republican nominee attracting 53% of the vote while his Democratic rival earns support from 43%. One percent (1%) of voters would opt for former Georgia Congressman Bob Barr who is running as the Libertarian candidate for President. Three percent (3%) of voters are undecided.

A month ago, McCain enjoyed a similar ten-point lead, 51% to 41%. Rasmussen Reports has conducted four polls in the Peachtree State this year and McCain has led by double digits in all four. Republican Senator Saxby Chambliss appears to be in good shape for his re-election bid.

McCain is viewed favorably by 60% of Georgia voters, Obama by 47%.

The current survey found that up to 6% of Georgia voters might consider voting for Barr. Most of these are currently McCain voters. If all 6% voted for Barr, the race in Georgia might be competitive. However, unless McCain is clearly headed for defeat nationally, it is unlikely that Barr will make enough of an impact to threaten the Republican winning streak in the state.

George W. Bush won the Georgia twice by double digits. Bill Clinton narrowly carried the state in 1992 but lost it to Bob Dole in 1996. Rasmussen Markets data shows that McCain is currently given a 79.0 % chance of winning Georgia’s fifteen Electoral College votes this fall. At the time this poll was released, Georgia was rated as “Likely Republican” in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator.

Forty-nine percent (49%) of Georgia voters say it’s more important to get the troops home from Iraq than it is to win the war. Forty-five percent (45%) hold the opposite view and say victory is more important. Those figures are little changed from a month ago.

Sixty-four percent (64%) say that offshore oil wells should be allowed while 25% of Georgia voters disagree. Those figures are similar to the national average.

George W. Bush won 58% of the Georgia vote in Election 2004 but today just 40% say he is doing a good or an excellent job as President.

Further reading: Can Obama Win Any Former Confederate States?

EARLIER: Georgia’s on Obama’s Mind (this post has Georgia’s 2008 primary results, check there to see how your county voted)

What do you think?

     COLUMBUS, Ohio (AP) - The Libertarian Party has filed lawsuits in Ohio and Tennessee against what it says are unconstitutionally restrictive ballot-access laws.
      Ohio is the biggest swing state standing in the way of the party’s efforts to place candidates on the November ballot.
      The party’s first goal is to get former GOP congressman Bob Barr on the ballot in 48 of 50 states. Some Republicans are worried Barr will play spoiler in a tight presidential contest. He’s on the ballot as a Libertarian or independent in 31 states so far.
      In the Ohio lawsuit, the party hopes to overturn a state rule that requires a minor party to turn in more than 20,000 signatures 100 days before the primary. If unsuccessful in the lawsuit, party members hope to gather 5,000 signatures to get Barr on the ballot as an independent.

I had not realized Barr was not on the Tennessee ballot yet. What do you think, Vote08 readers? Should he be?  

ATLANTA (AP) - Libertarian Party presidential candidate Bob Barr said he’s receiving backing from supporters of Ron Paul’s failed White House bid.
Barr told reporters on Thursday that he’s in contact with the Republican congressman from Texas. And he added that Paul supporters are contributing to his campaign and working as volunteers. Paul is a former Libertarian candidate for president himself. He recently dropped out of the GOP race after it became clear Arizona Sen. John McCain had secured the nomination.
Paul still enjoys a loyal base of support. Some of them say they are now giving Barr a look.
Barr, a former congressman and federal prosecutor from Georgia, was at the state Capitol filing ballot access paperwork.

As we’ve shown earlier, Barr’s presence in the race makes the battle for Georgia one to watch in the coming months.

What do you think?