As we said yesterday, McCain says he does plan to bring up the William Ayers issue at tonight’s debate. That’s after much goading from his supporters - & his opponent (”say it to my face“). Obama said today he’s ready for that attack.

It’s all turned, essentially, into this:

But is there a chance it could turn out that it’s McCain’s tongue that sticks to the flagpole?

Possibly, yes.

McCain’s in a quandary. Mentioning Ayers has the potential to grab some of those “unpersuadeds” in the electorate. Yet it’s a double-edged sword - the vast majority of undecided voters want talk of the economy & nothing else. It’s a gamble. I don’t think I’d advise him to do it, supporters be da(rn)ed. It will certainly not keep those supporters home on election day.

What can McCain do to turn the election around? People from all sides of the aisle weigh in here.

I do hope you watch tonight. This is the last chance we’re going to see these two candidates on the stage at the same time, outlining their visions for the future. If you have plans, I’d recommend changing them if you can. History will happen tonight.

& in case you’re unable to view it, I hope to have the entire debate posted on this blog (it’ll be the very next post after this one) by 9am EDT tomorrow.

Between now & then, I’d like to ask your opinion. What advice would you give both candidates tonight? Please weigh in in the comments section!

[Wait, what are "527s?" An explanation here.]

Long story short: they’re the groups that can put out ads attacking the other candidate that don’t require the candidate the ads favor to say “I”m (x) & I approve this message.”

Here’s what’s airing “from McCain’s side” against Obama from the “Our Country Deserves Better” PAC. Put on your helmet, & watch out for that kitchen sink:

& now here a pair of ads airing in Ohio “from Obama’s side” against McCain, from a group called “Bring Ohio Back.” The approach here is, “hey, you drink beer - I drink beer. Here’s why McCain’s wrong, etc.”

What do you think?

Are the ads fair?

Post a comment!

On McCain’s New Economic Plans Announced Today

Read the Obama campaign’s response to this plan here.

Read Obama’s own plan to help the middle class here.

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Above: a strategy update from Obama campaign staffer David Plouffe.

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Letter from Pennsylvania

David Broder, reporting from Pennsylvania:

“Now, economic anxieties are pervasive and Obama, whose ads are seen far more frequently than McCain’s, is viewed as the candidate more seriously addressing those domestic problems.

Peter Wilde, a retired high school teacher who was working on his car on a sunny afternoon, said he has decided on Obama, but “I really like John McCain, and in any other election but this one, I’d vote for him. He’s a man of integrity and he speaks his mind.”

So, why Obama? “I think his tax plan is better for people like me, and after the last two weeks, my 401(k) is not in too good a shape.”"

See the latest Pennsylvania poll spread here.

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Yes We Keynes?

David Brooks, warning against a surge of government spending in an Obama administration:

“Obama will try to straddle the two camps — he seems to sympathize with both sides — but the liberals will win…. Even if he’s so inclined, it’s difficult for a president to overrule the committee chairmen of his own party. It is more difficult to do that when the president is a Washington novice and the chairmen are skilled political hands. It is most difficult when the president has no record of confronting his own party elders. It’s completely impossible when the economy is in a steep recession, and an air of economic crisis pervades the nation.

What we’re going to see, in short, is the Gingrich revolution in reverse and on steroids. There will be a big increase in spending and deficits. In normal times, moderates could have restrained the zeal on the left. In an economic crisis, not a chance. The over-reach is coming. The backlash is next.

Nice to see a conservative wake up & realize the perils of too much government spending. Pity we didn’t hear more of these voices in the last 8 years.

ALSO: Fred Barnes of the Weekly Standard also walks through a “worst-case scenario” for Republicans.

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Neither Candidate Has Anything to Do with It

Above: the headline of the New York Post on Friday. I hear this often on Rush Limbaugh & Fox News - anytime the market tanks, the “reason” is that “investors are worried about an Obama administration.”

Trouble is, that story line conveniently goes away on days like yesterday, which saw the Dow’s biggest jump (900+!) ever.

If you talked to an investor in the heat of battle on Wall Street today & asked him to list 10 things that are affecting his current investing decisions, I suspect “who will become the president in three weeks” does not make the list.

Picture if you will…

What if Obama’s father hadn’t ever left Kenya to meet his mother?

Above: here are your two tickets.

As of October 13th, after more than six months of wearying negative campaigning on both sides, Clinton has a slight lead in the polls thanks to the financial crisis.

Polls remain very tight.

3rd party candidates are much more in play (Paul/Bloomberg?). Ceiling of 3rd party vote nationwide is about 4%.

Mike Huckabee is the race’s “Sarah Palin.”

Final electoral tally reaches a margin of victory smaller than 2004’s.

What if Obama lost the primaries?

Above: Here are your two tickets.

As of October 13th, the McCain campaign is in nearly exact same position as now in the polls, possibly worse.

Polls tend to be closer to what they are in reality.

Obama is the race’s ‘Sarah Palin.’

Final electoral tally reaches a margin of victory greater than 2004’s.

What do you think?

Sean Quinn at FiveThirtyEight.com spotlights Tennessee’s demographics & current climate in his ongoing series called “the Road to 270:”

What McCain Has Going For Him: A very high white evangelical population helps McCain, as does a relatively low youth population….Obama triaged Tennessee in the primary, ceding it.

What Obama Has Going For Him: Tennessee has been relatively hurt by high unemployment figures, and it’s clear that economic concerns help the Democratic candidate.

Click here for the full forecast.

There’s also this interesting demographic breakdown:

Obama calls for 90-day moratorium on foreclosures

Democratic Barack Obama on Monday called for more immediate steps to heal the nation’s ailing economy, proposing a 90-day moratorium on home foreclosures at some banks and a two-year tax break for businesses that create new jobs.

The presidential candidate also proposed allowing people to withdraw up to $10,000 from their retirement accounts without any penalty for the remainder of the year and 2009.

Read more about it here.

Read prepared remarks here.

The Nashville Tennesseean newspaper has endorsed Obama:

“Obama has managed to put a tone of optimism in his campaign at a time it would be very easy to be downhearted, worried and pessimistic. That characteristic alone goes a long way in demonstrating the kind of leadership the nation needs.”

Dan Balz says Obama should face more (& tougher) questions from the media in these final days.

“The presidential race is not over, but at this point, Obama has a better chance of becoming president than McCain, and as a result, the questions ought to be going toward him as much or more than McCain — questions not of tactics but of substance.”

Obama Breaks Recent Silence on Ayers

“Ultimately, I ended up learning about the fact that he had engaged in this reprehensible act 40 years ago, but I was eight years old at the time and I assumed that he had been rehabilitated,” he told radio host Michael Smerconish. “This guy is not part of my inner circle, he doesn’t advise my campaign, he’s not going to advise me as president,” Obama added, and criticized McCain for focusing on Ayers when the economy is in turmoil, calling the issue a “red herring.” “The fact that Senator McCain wants to make this the centerpiece of his campaign is pretty remarkable. We are going through an enormous challenge right now.”

Charles Krauthammer:

“…associations are important. They provide a significant insight into character. They are particularly relevant in relation to a potential president as new, unknown, opaque and self-contained as Obama. With the economy overshadowing everything, it may be too late politically to be raising this issue. But that does not make it, as conventional wisdom holds, in any way illegitimate.”

After the jump: A new Obama ad airing in North Carolina…Obama’s plan for small businesses…how Obama predicted this week’s GOP attacks four months ago..fact-checking a new “527″ ad that links Obama to the early release of sex abusers.

Read the rest of this entry »

Obama to Air 30-minute Campaign Commercial Oct. 29th

WASHINGTON (AP) - Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama plans to air a 30-minute commercial during prime time on Oct. 29, six days before Election Day.
Obama spokesman Bill Burton said the campaign has secured the time from CBS and is negotiating with other networks to air the half-hour spot.
Obama has been outspending rival John McCain in advertising and has been airing commercials of up to two-minutes in length.

Ross Perot famously aired a 30-minute ad during his independent presidential campaign in 1992, attracting 16.5 million viewers.
Short political spots have been the traditional way for politicians to communicate with voters. For Obama, however, a longer piece would be a dramatic way to close his argument to voters.

Above: Obama in Cincinnati today.

The blog Obsidian Wings refutes McCain’s claim that “Obama has never taken on his party:”

“Obama was the Senate’s point person for ethics reform. Ethics reform is never a particularly good way to endear yourself to your colleagues, since working for it consists in large part of trying to convince them to give up various goodies. For some of the ethics reform debate, Obama had the Senate leadership behind him. But he was working for stronger legislation than they wanted. Sometimes he won, as in the case just described. Sometimes he lost: he was pushing for an independent commission to oversee Congressional ethics cases, and lost.”

Above: General Petraeus says “talking to our enemies” isn’t a bad idea.

Time Magazine has a piece on the roadblock Obama faces with American racism.

Read Peter Wehner on Obama’s “Unasked Question.”

The race is over.

No, it’s not.

A Senate Race Suddenly Worth Watching

At left: Georgia Democratic Senate Challenger Jim Martin.

At right: Georgia incumbent Senator Saxby Chambliss (R)

Polls Taken a Month Ago (September 7-9)

Chambliss: 57%

Martin: 28%

Polls Taken This Week (October 5-7)

Chambliss: 47%

Martin: 44%

Yes, Chambliss did vote for the Wall Street bailout.

& it looks like he’s paying dearly for it.

& this is probably partly why Chambliss is buying ad time on NewsChannel9.