The Blog Formerly Known As Vote '08

Minnesota’s still (still!) up in the air, but with Tuesday’s Chambliss win, the makeup of the U.S. Senate for 2009 is closer to taking shape.

Nate Silver gives a rough ranking of which Senators find themselves mattering the most:

Swing Republicans

59. Snowe (ME). Obama won Maine by 18 points, making it the bluest state to be home to a Republican senator — and in fact, it has two of them. Per Voteview, Olympia Snowe is incrementally more liberal than Susan Collins; she’s also up for re-election two years sooner. It will be very interesting to see how the two of them will legislate under an Obama administration.
60. Collins (ME). See above.
61. Specter (PA). Under re-election pressure in a state that Obama carried by double digits. Mitigating factor: possible that he’ll be under pressure from the right too in the form of a primary challenge.
62. Lugar (IN). On good terms with Obama, who (barely) won his state. Voteview has him becoming slightly more liberal over the past several Congresses.
63. Voinovich (OH). Under serious re-election pressure. Has often been moderate — or even slightly left of center — on pocketbook issues, and increasingly so on other ones.

…

Note: he doesn’t list Corker at all.

Swing Democrats

58. Landrieu (LA). Always a problem for Democrats on key votes. LA is trending red. Endorsed Clinton.
57. Pryor (AR). Is slightly more popular than Landrieu and also slightly more liberal, but the same basic story applies. Arkansas is one of the few states moving in the wrong direction for Democrats, and Pryor never really showed any signs of warmth toward Obama.
56. Nelson (NE). By most statistical methodologies, the most conservative Democrat in the chamber. However, he endorsed Obama early. I think Obama will have fewer near-term problems with the Midwestern blue dogs than the Southern ones.
55. Lincoln (AR). More liberal by some margin than Mark Pryor, but she’s up for re-election in 2010, and Obama may have reverse coattails in Arkansas. If Mike Huckabee enters the race against her, look out.

There are more on the list, both for Repubilcans & Democrats. Worth checking if you’re interested in filling out a scorecard.

All will be interesting to watch!

What do you thinK?

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