Vote '08

First off, McCain needs to cut this kind of stuff out:

Please enable Javascript and Flash to view this Flash video.

Is the criticism legitimate? Sure it is.

Does it help calm the nerves of a jittery GOP base? Yes, of course.

Does it help win over the independent voters he needs to win 270 electoral votes? No. To them, attacks like this come off as extremely whiny. & those voters also remember when the media was heavily favoring McCain. McCain is only hurting himself. Yes, he’s been dealt a bad hand this week.. but there are still quite a few between now & November. He should stop trying to win this news cycle & take the time out of the spotlight to think about the big picture.

I’ve found two essential pieces for you to read that makes this point.

The 1st is from Mark Halperin of Time Magazine, who’s “The Page” is one of the essential sites for political junkies this year. Today he’s out with a piece called “It’s Now or Never: What John McCain Needs to Win:”

Stuff he can’t control:

–For Obama to make a substantive mistake on his overseas trip that changes the vector direction of the coverage — especially while he is in Israel.

–For Obama to suffer a Dukakis-in-the-tank, Kerry-windsurfing, Obama-bitter-in-San-Francisco moment that has huge symbolic value in underscoring the doubts about his being commander in chief and his relatability to average Americans.

–For Obama to pick a running mate who doesn’t vet, who gets caught up in scandal, and/or who says stupid things.

–For gas prices to fall consistently starting Labor Day (or sooner).

–For Osama bin Laden to be captured in a way that helps the White House and the Republican brand.

–For the media to start treating him with respect (again).

–For the media to start treating him with affection (again).

Stuff he can control (sort of):

–To have some of his own, big presidential moments before the conventions.

–To give a grand, soulful, expectations-defying acceptance speech in St. Paul (a la George H.W. Bush in 1988).

–To learn to drive the same message for more than a day.

–To remember that Americans want an upbeat president.

–To start sounding sharp, crisp and confident about his agenda and his qualifications, to stop sounding so wishy-washy about his platform, and to stop appearing so shook up by Obamamania.

–To stop letting personal animus for Obama and the shape of the media coverage consume him and his campaign.

–To not bow to the temptation to talk about national security when he is supposed to talk about domestic issues.

–To recognize, accept and cater to the reality (as Rudy Giuliani would say) that most Americans care more about the price at the pump, their mortgages, and their food and health care costs then about McCain’s life story, prescience on the surge, or total number of trips made to Iraq.

–To pick a running mate who shakes things up and gets him a second look from voters — but not so out there that the campaign seems desperate or radical.

–To pick a running mate who can serve as a Day-One-ready peer as well as a surrogate.

–To stop making silly errors (like the convoluted and petty reaction to Obama’s ostensibly overdue trip Iraq).

–To stop saying things that make him seem old (unless he is absolutely sure everyone will get the joke).

Note: This is analysis, not advice.

2nd good read of the day is from the New York Times’ Thomas Friedman, who says McCain’s correct support of the surge through thick & thin has the potential for turning from a blessing into a curse. Some key quotes:

“Forget about our narrative on this war — how we “liberated Iraq.” Think about the Iraqi narrative. No one likes to be liberated or occupied by someone else. It is humiliating. France still hasn’t gotten over the fact that it had to be liberated by the Allies. What is important is how, with the help of the surge, Iraqis have finally started to liberate themselves — the Sunnis from their extremists and the Shiites from their extremists. The question in Iraq is: Can these parallel liberation movements actually merge into a single national liberation/unity movement? I don’t know.

But I do know this: While we would like an Iraqi national movement — binding Shiites, Kurds and Sunnis — to coalesce, we don’t want it coalescing in opposition to us. Running against the continued U.S. presence in Iraq will be a very tempting campaign theme for Iraqi politicians — in both the upcoming Iraqi provincial and parliamentary elections — if Iraq continues to stabilize.

…

So McCain, who called the surge right, may get little credit, because the story now is about post-surge Iraq. McCain’s post-surge view — which also may be right — is that Iraqis still do not have the military force capable of protecting their homeland and need more U.S. help in nation-building. Meanwhile, Obama, who was not a surge supporter and simply stuck to his 16-month withdrawal timetable, finds himself — by luck or smarts — in perfect harmony with the post-surge mood in Iraq. His timetable may be too short, but Obama can worry about that later.

All of which suggests that the right position on Iraq today is probably “McBama” — stick to a clear withdrawal timetable because post-surge Iraqi and American politics will tolerate nothing else — but leave yourself some wiggle room if things keep getting better, but not exactly on schedule. Always remember: the more Iraq is seen as succeeding on its own, without U.S. scaffolding, the more positive impact it will have on the neighborhood.”

Time for you to weigh in! What should McCain do — or not do — to help assure him victory this November?

You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.