2008 vs… 1996

July 17th, 2008, 10:16 am · 1 Comment · posted by Dan Lehr

There are a lot of similarities between this year’s campaign & 1996, first among them that again we have the oldest-ever candidate (who’s a bonafide war hero) to run for president. Here’s how Dole deftly handled the age issue in one of the debates that fall:

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2008 is like 1996 in that for the 1st time since then, the “charisma gap” favors the Democrat instead of the Republican.

Of course, Dole falling off the stage (due to bad luck as opposed to his age) during a rally didn’t help him all that much:

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But Dole’s age was not what did him in - it was the microtargeted reelection campaign of Clinton - a campaign in which he spent much time crafting “middle of the road” legislation to cater to this group & that group - that helped him become the 1st Democrat since FDR to win a 2nd term.

Here’s a typical Clinton ad:

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Note how rather than run a broad-themed, “Morning in America”-style campaign, Clinton is directly addressing the changes he brought about on a single issue. That was generally atypical of an incumbency campaign up until 1996.

& here’s an ad Dole ran in the primary season, attacking then-candidate, now-Tennessee Senator Lamar Alexander for being (ha!) “too liberal:”

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Like McCain, Dole is also a war hero & well-known Senator. Both men suffered permanent damage to their arms because of their service.

This campaign is vastly different than 1996, though, in that there is no incumbent (once again - thank you, Dick Cheney!).

Here’s a look at how the 1996 electoral map shook out in November:

Note that unlike the last 2 elections, Tennessee was blue.

..But Hamilton County was red. The tally was Clinton 48,008 - Dole 55,205. (warning: link is to BIG pdf file)

& Dole won over Hamilton County voters in the March primary in a big way. I don’t have time to check, but was the race over at that point? Seems odd that he beat Alexander 6 to 1. (warning: link is to BIG pdf file)

The price of a gallon of gas in 1996, the week of the election: $1.40

Prices today: do you really need me to tell you?

McCain vs Dole is worth some deeper digging. Some observations, with a hat-tip to this site:

1. In 1996, McCain advised Dole to skip the NAACP Convention. He didn’t follow that advice yesterday.

2. This year, only 49% of Republicans surveyed are satisfied with the candidates, compared to 74% of Democrats. The figure for GOP supporters is even worse than in 1996, when 50% were content with the Clinton-Dole choice.

3. Worse still, only 14% of McCain backers “strongly support” their man, compared to 28% for Barack Obama. In 1996, Bob Dole claimed a similarly anemic 13%.

4. Party identification: While Bob Dole faced only a three-point deficit (35% to 32%) in 1996, John McCain is encountering a 9% handicap as Democrats outnumber Republicans 37% to 28%.

What was McCain doing in 1996? He was a senator, & supporting then-Texas Senator Phil Gramm’s run for the presidency. As we saw last week, the relationship would have best served McCain if it had ended there.

& Obama? He was teaching constitutional law at the University of Chicago law school, & also began his career in politics by running for state senate. He filled out a questionaire as a candidate that has since come back to haunt him.