HIS LEAD’S SLIPPING, BUT TENNESSEE IS STILL McCAIN’S STATE TO LOSE

June 27th, 2008, 3:59 pm · Post a Comment · posted by Dan Lehr

Huzzah! A new Tennessee poll is in! Let’s dive in, shall we?

John McCain leads Barack Obama 51% to 36% in Tennessee, according to the latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state. Though McCain has a strong advantage, his lead has been cut nearly in half since April.

Two months ago, while Obama was still struggling to wrap up the Democratic Presidential Nomination, McCain led 58% to 31% in the Volunteer State. The current poll is the first conducted in the state since Hillary Clinton’s exit from the race.

McCain leads 61% to 29% among men, but the candidates are essentially even among women. McCain draws support from 87% of Republicans and holds a two-to-one advantage among unaffiliated voters. Obama is supported by 74% of Democrats.

The Republican nominee is viewed favorably by 60% of Tennessee voters and unfavorably by 37%. Those numbers are slightly less flattering than two months ago. Obama’s ratings are 42% favorable, 55% unfavorable. His ratings have improved marginally since April.

One in four Tennessee voters say they would be more willing to vote for Barack Obama if Tennessee Governor Phil Bredesen was on the ticket. Twenty-nine percent (29%) said they would be less likely to vote for the Democrats. The Governor earns good or excellent ratings from 56% of Tennessee voters, while 17% think he is doing a poor job.

The survey also found that while 77% of voters in Tennessee say they are willing to vote for an African American president, just 57% say most of their family, friends and co-workers would be willing to do so. Just 11% of voters say they would not be willing to vote for an African American for president, while 16% do not think their peers would either.

Two-thirds of voters in Tennessee (67%) say it is at least somewhat important the candidates choose a running mate from the South. Thirty percent (30%) think this is very important.

Tennessee voters are more split when it comes to the next President and the War in Iraq. While just about half of voters (48%) think it is more important the troops are brought home sooner, nearly the same amount (44%) think winning the war should be top priority. Tennessee voters are slightly more divided on this question than voters nationwide.

Sixty-six percent (66%) of voters in Tennessee think drilling in offshore oil wells should be allowed in order to help reduce fuel prices. One in five voters (20%) disagree. Those results are similar to those found on the national level. Over half of voters (58%) think it is likely fuel prices will drop if offshore drilling is allowed, while a third of voters find this unlikely.

Tennessee has cast its eleven Electoral College votes for the Republican candidate in four out of the last six presidential elections and is rated as “Likely Republican” in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator.

Rasmussen Markets data shows that Republicans are given a 85.0 % chance of winning Tennessee this November.

Digging deeper into the questions & responses is a fascinating exercise. We delve into them in full — & add pictures! — after the jump!

Survey of 500 Likely Voters

June 24, 2008

1* How do you rate the way that George W. Bush is performing his role as President? Excellent, good, fair, or poor?

19% Excellent

19% Good

15% Fair

47% Poor

0% Not sure

2* 2008 Presidential General Election Match-Ups

McCain	51%
Obama	36%
Other	5%

3* Favorable Ratings

	McCain	Obama
Very Favorable	22%	22%
Somewhat Favorable	38%	20%
Somewhat Unfavorable	24%	17%
Very Unfavorable	13%	38%
Not sure	3%	3%

4* If Phil Bredesen is selected to run as the Democrats Vice Presidential nominee, would you be more or less likely to vote for Barack Obama for President?

25% More likely

29% Less likely

40% No impact

6% Not sure

5* Would you personally be willing to vote for an African American President?

77% Yes

11% No

12% Not sure

6* What about your family, friends and co-workers? Would most of them be willing to vote for an African American President?

57% Yes

16% No

26% Not sure

7* How important is it to you that the candidates pick a southerner as a Vice Presidential running mate?

13% Very important

17% Somewhat important

39% Not very important

28% Not at all important

3% Not sure

8* When it comes to the situation in Iraq, which is the more important goal for the next president to accomplish during his first term…winning the war or getting the troops home?

44% Winning the war

48% Getting the troops home

7% Not sure

9*John McCain favors drilling in offshore oil wells to help reduce the price of gas. Barack Obama opposes offshore oil wells and says it would not reduce the price of gas. Should drilling be allowed in offshore oil wells off the coasts of California, Florida, and other states?