The Blog Formerly Known As Vote '08

Details here. 

Highlights: Obama leads McCain, 47-41 overall. But this race is so far from over you should take those numbers with a grain of salt. It is always expected that the week after a candidate secures the nomination he (or she) will get a bit of a bump in the polls.

In June of 2004, the same NBC poll had Bush leading Kerry, 45-44 (Bush led Kerry throughout the campaign that year).

It’s safe to say the environment has changed, though.

Diving into the numbers a little further:

Obama leads with:

    African-Americans (83-7)

    Hispanics (62-28)

    Women (52-33)

    Catholics (47-40)

    Independents (41-36)

    Blue-Collar Workers (47-42)

    All White Women (46-39)

    & Clinton voters (61-19)

McCain leads among

    Evangelicals (69-21)

    White Men (55-35)

    All Men (49-41)

    Whites (47-41) [* note - that's an exact reverse of the overall poll finding] 

    & White Suburban Women (44-38)

 Chuck Todd writes at MSNBC’s “First Read” blog:

“How important is that lead? NBC/WSJ co-pollster Neil Newhouse (R) explains that Republican candidates always expect to win white men by a substantial margin, but it’s white women that usually decide the race. “If a Republican wins among white women, we usually win that election,” he says, noting that George Bush carried that group in 2000 and 2004.

What do the numbers tell you? Come on! Post a comment!

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