THAT’S THE TICKET?
April 10th, 2008, 3:45 pm · Post a Comment · posted by Dan Lehr
NBC Political Guru Chuck Todd makes an interesting case for Mitt Romney being at the bottom of a McCain ticket. More after you click “read the rest of this entry:”
“McCain could fix some of his problems connecting on the economy by his choice of a running mate, and there may not be a better “conventional” pick than Mitt Romney.
The former Massachusetts governor could help the ticket immediately in the two blue states of Michigan and New Hampshire. And he could potentially offset Obama’s strength in the Rocky Mountain west with a surge of Mormons coming out in Nevada and Colorado in particular.
Then there is the help Romney could provide on McCain’s message, assuming the problem-solving, job-creation Romney is the running mate rather than the born-again social conservative Romney.”
I had written off Romney as a possible Veep candidate, but I hadn’t considered the points Chuck Todd makes about regional improvement in the general. For the record, I happen to believe the “regional” appeal of a Vice Presidential candidate (LBJ counterbalancing JFK, say) is a tactic whose value has long passed.. but hey, I could be wrong.
Todd makes a broader point in this article that also may raise your eyebrows: Republicans should be rooting for the Democratic race to be wrapped up sooner rather than later:
“There may be a point where it is good for McCain, say if the fight actually goes all the way to Denver, but short of that, he needs an opponent, badly.
Why? A few reasons, not the least of which is finding out where he stands with the voting public.
Currently polls show McCain either narrowly ahead or even with both Hillary Clinton & Barack Obama. It is impressive considering how poorly the GOP, and specifically the president, are viewed by the public.
But it is a faux lead. If the de facto Democratic nominee is clear within the next 4-6 weeks, that person will see a poll bounce. And according to GOP pollster Steve Lombardo, it could be one heck of a bounce, like post-convention. He anticipates the Democratic candidate will move up 10 points once the primary race is over.
That will be a jolting set of numbers for the McCain camp to absorb. They ought to be prepping the media now, because if they wait for the inevitable overreaction of the pundit class, the bounce will take on more importance.
The initial bounce will set the polling numbers - the floor and ceiling - for the Democrats, who clearly have the generic advantage this cycle. Those parameters will dictate the morale within the GOP base.
If McCain’s is hanging in, behind by 10 or so points, then it is clear he will have a shot. If the bounce pushes the Democratic nominee to as much as a 15 point lead, it may be very demoralizing to the GOP. The sooner McCain can absorb this inevitable negative poll news, the longer he has to recover.”
If this theory is true (& Todd makes a good case), it looks like Republicans now need to root for Hillary to lose Pennsylvania badly.
