The Blog Formerly Known As Vote '08

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So can Hillary still win the Democratic nomination? It still remains possible, but as of today the odds are getting longer.

Today an article in the New York Times outlines what Clinton needs in her favor:

1. Beat Obama in Pennsylvania. The latest PA polls show her with about a 16-point lead there.
2. Lead in the popular vote in June, after the last primary (in Puerto Rico). The current popular primary/caucus vote count shows her with 46.9%, him with 49.5% - he leads by about 750,000.
3. Convince the remaining undecided superdelegates she’s the best nominee. Right now she leads, 248 to 213, but Obama has gained far more - about 5 dozen - since the Super Tuesday primaries on February 5th.

Mark Halperin (former ABC News political director, now a blogger for Time Magazine), speculated yesterday on how she’s doing in each of these areas:

1. Getting the Florida and Michigan delegations seated to her advantage:

* Not so good, as both efforts have collapsed.

2. Winning over the superdelegates:

* Good in the sense that she just won her first two new public commitments since Ohio/Texas, and she has prevented a stampede towards Obama.

* Bad in the sense that Obama has continued to pick up many more than she has in the last month, which means a slow, steady trickle of death for her chances.

3. Making the electability argument:

* Better, with her succession of big state wins, increased media focus on Obama’s weakness with white voters in some key states and her rival’s image troubles and campaign errors.

4. Defining Obama on negative terms:

* Best for her, and the key at this point to her overtaking him.

What do you think? Post a comment & let us know!

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