Vote '08

Still feeling hungry after Super Tuesday’s feast of primaries?

Washington, Louisiana, Nebraska & Maine all hold Presidential contests this weekend.

After the jump, we’ll take a look at which candidates voters in these states have an appetite for.

Washington State caucuses (Saturday)

78 Democratic delegates at stake for Democrats, 18 for Republicans.

The last major poll in the state was taken before John Edwards dropped out. It showed a tight race between Clinton & Obama, and there is now evidence that Edwards’ supporters have crossed over to Obama.

Clinton’s Advantages: Washington state has a tradition of electing women. Both of the states Senators are female, & both have endorsed Hillary. The state’s female governor has not announced her endorsement as of Friday morning, but she will before caucus time. [12pm Friday update: she has endorsed Obama.]

Obama’s Advantages: Every state holding a caucus (versus a primary) this year has demonstrated the overwhelming organizational power of the Obama campaign. He won Iowa & Colorado by big margins, & though he lost Nevada he still won enough delegates to make it a tie. Political scientist Bryan Jones of the University of Washington says of the voters: “They’re Obama-crazy here, even the Republicans.”

VOTE08 Predicts: Obama wins.

Huckabee’s advantages: Social conservatives have a history of packing the caucuses.

McCain’s advantages: Washington state’s moderate Republicans outnumber social conservatives. But because McCain is now perceived to be the de facto nominee, many Republicans may cross over to help decide the Democratic race (the caucuses don’t require party registration).

Vote08 Predicts: Huckabee wins.

Louisiana Primary (Saturday)

First off, what an awful decision to schedule a primary during Mardi Gras season. Many voters are more concerned with getting inebriated than considering this all-important choice. The race is probably the weekend’s most crucial since Super Tuesday didn’t produce a clear delegate advantage for either Democratic candidate; 56 delegates are up for grabs. For Republicans, 20 delegates are at stake, & it’s winner-take-all.

Clinton’s advantages: Hardly any. Bill Clinton campaigned in the state this week, but Mrs. Clinton has not.

Obama’s advantages: He has invested a lot of local face time & ads on local airwaves. Here’s an anecdote from the mother of a friend of mine from New Orleans who attended a rally:

“A few women I work with were there –they were impressed with how much local info he had in his speech.He referred to Nicola Cotton, a cop who was killed in the line of duty last week. He said he would appoint a FEMA director who would report directly to him for a term of 4 years, and he would NOT be a Brownie.He would push for Cat 5 levee protection. He made a few other New Orleans references–it was not your typical stump speech–everyone was impressed with how he or his advance person did their homework.”

Also, one third of Louisiana voters are black, while the Hispanic population (which has helped Clinton in other states) is low.

Vote08 Predicts: Obama wins.

Huckabee’s advantages: He’s demonstrated his power in southern states. Protestant conservative voters in the northern part of the state will swing heavily for him.

McCain’s advantages: Strength in urban areas to the south. But could Mardi Gras hangovers hurt him?

Vote08 Predicts: Huckabee wins, but it’s close.

Nebraska Caucuses (Democrats only) (Saturday)

24 delegates are at stake.

Clinton’s advantages: Chelsea’s campaigning hard here this week; Hillary’s running ads featuring former Senator Bob Kerrey touting her experience; the Clinton campaign has touted its strong grass-roots base.

Obama’s advantages: Like Mike Huckabee in the south, Obama has demonstrated his power over Democrats in so-called “Red States.” He won by overwhelming majorities in neighboring Kansas & Colorado, as well as winning decisive victories Utah, Idaho, & Minnesota. Obama also spent a lot of time in Cornhusker country this week. State party leaders & the state’s lone Congressional Democrat have all endorsed him.

Vote08 Predicts: another decisive Obama red-state victory.

Kansas Caucuses (Republicans only) (Saturday)

Okay, we apologize for implying there’s just 4 contests .. Kansas Republicans decide on how to award 36 delegates.

Huckabee’s advantages: He’s in it to win it. Huckabee spends time today criss-crossing the state with appearances in Olathe, Wichita, Topeka and Garden City. He now has the endorsement of the state’s largest anti-abortion group, & state & party leaders are split in their support between Huckabee & McCain.

McCain’s advantages: He’s been ahead in the polls even before Romney dropped out Thursday; He’s speaking in Kansas City later today, which to Kansans may give off the appearance of just dipping your big toe in the water.

Vote08 Predicts: Another close win for Huckabee.

Maine Caucuses (Democrats Only) (Sunday)

24 delegates are at stake. Both candidates plan on spending a lot of time in the Pine Tree State this weekend.

Clinton’s advantages: Maine’s governor has endorsed her, & several state lawmakers held a rally for her yesterday. Bill Clinton is his wife’s advance man; She’s appearing in the college town of Orono tomorrow to try to cut Obama’s youth lead. Maine has long elected women to public office; it also has an extremely low -3%- minority population.

Obama’s advantages: He has the backing of the state’s House Speaker. He also raised $400,000 here back in September, demonstrating his drawing power.

Vote08 Predicts: A true test of the Obama campaign’s caucus prowess. But Clinton will probably still win.

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